Soctty Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 I assume I must be in the massive minority who actually thought it WASN'T a deliberate passback? I just can't see why any player would punt a high ball back to his keeper from near the half way line. I didn't think it was at the time, and the footage I've seen doesn't really convince me otherwise. He won't be taking any chances in future, that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 On the Oaky play off debate, may I venture that this has resulted from Oaky thinking that the lower league play offs follow the same format as the Premier League play off....which of course they don't? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: On the Oaky play off debate, may I venture that this has resulted from Oaky thinking that the lower league play offs follow the same format as the Premier League play off....which of course they don't? Eh, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, faraway saint said: Eh, no? Are you asking me a question? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: On the Oaky play off debate, may I venture that this has resulted from Oaky thinking that the lower league play offs follow the same format as the Premier League play off....which of course they don't? Just re-read Oaksoft's most recent post and therefore now realise the above is not the case. For the record, I agree with his assessment of the situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: Are you asking me a question? Eh, no? Just astonished you thought oaky had misunderstood the play off situation? Hope this helps? Edited April 25, 2017 by faraway saint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elvis Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, stlucifer said: I assume I must be in the massive minority who actually thought it WASN'T a deliberate passback? I just can't see why any player would punt a high ball back to his keeper from near the half way line. That was exactly my thought when I saw it never a deliberate. Pass back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, faraway saint said: Eh, no? Just astonished you though oaky had misunderstood the play off situation? Hope this helps? Why do you keep using superfluous question marks then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shull Posted April 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: Why do you keep using superfluous question marks then? Indeed, why Smokie ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 18 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: Why do you keep using superfluous question marks then? Why not? PS Lighten up, it was never meant to be taken seriously, was it? Edited April 25, 2017 by faraway saint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Slartibartfast said: You would be wrong as well, then. Well if you don't mind I’d prefer to decide for myself whether I am right or wrong Mr. Hunting. My view is that yes there are 4 teams in the “competition” and were it a round robin competition then we would indeed have a 1 in 4 chance. However, given that it is not a round robin and we only have to win two ties i.e. beat two other teams, then it is a 1 in 3 chance. We’ll have to agree to hold differing views. Yours sincerely, John Nash Edited April 25, 2017 by TPAFKA Jersey 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvine_buddie Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: Well if you don't mind I’d prefer to decide for myself whether I am right or wrong Mr. Hunting. My view is that yes there are 4 teams in the “competition” and were it a round robin competition then we would indeed have a 1 in 4 chance. However, given that it is not a round robin and we only have to win two ties i.e. beat two other teams, then it is a 1 in 3 chance. We’ll have to agree to hold differing views. Yours sincerely, John Nash There's no deciding if you're right or wrong when it comes to probability.. there is a right and a wrong and Slartibartfast's post explained why it is a 1 in 4 chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munoz Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 hours ago, stlucifer said: I assume I must be in the massive minority who actually thought it WASN'T a deliberate passback? I just can't see why any player would punt a high ball back to his keeper from near the half way line. I agree . I think McGinn was just trying to get to the ball before the Utd player , and play it into a safe area . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, irvine_buddie said: There's no deciding if you're right or wrong when it comes to probability.. there is a right and a wrong and Slartibartfast's post explained why it is a 1 in 4 chance. And my post explained why it isn't. Unless of course Slartibartfast is the God of Numbers and I wasn't aware? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shull Posted April 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 19 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: And my post explained why it isn't. Unless of course Slartibartfast is the God of Numbers and I wasn't aware? Anyway, if it can somehow be proven indisputably that Slartibartfast is correct, then it will be my contention that the laws of probability are wrong and me/oaksoft are correct. Edited April 25, 2017 by TPAFKA Jersey 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) On 4/24/2017 at 5:34 AM, Slartibartfast said: But we could play team A then team C, not team B. Each team have a 50% (1 in 2) chance of winning their first tie and a 50% (1 in 2) chance of winning their second tie, therefore a 25% (1 in 4) chance of winning both ties. Rephrasing my previous post, if each of the 4 teams has a 1 in 3 (33.33...%,(P)=1/3 or 0.33...) chance of playing in the Championship then that would mean, that before a ball is kicked in the playoffs, there is a 4 in 3 (133.33...%, (P)=4/3 or 1.33...) chance of one of them playing in the Championship. As you are obviously aware, in a situation like this, there can't be over 100% or a probability of over 1, there is exactly a 100% chance or a probability of 1. Or, to look at it from another angle, 75% (3 out of 4) of the teams will NOT be playing in the Championship, therefore 25% (1 out of 4) will. It looks like you are over thinking it and you are applying an outcome (or condition) before the outcome (or condition) is known. We would, assuming we win the first tie, only play one of the teams from the other side of the "draw" but we don't know which one before that tie is played and the outcome is known (or condition fulfilled). As for the teams D, E and F bit then no, you are wrong, I don't think that. If 6 teams had to play off to face us then we would have a probability of 1/2 (as we would only be playing one tie) and the other 6 would have a total probability of 1/2 (depends on how you were structuring their 6 team playoff what the individual probabilities would be). The Premiership playoff situation is that (all things being equal and for a purely mathematical exercise), because of the way it is structured, the Premiership team has a probability of 1/2 (1 tie), the second placed Championship side has a probability of 1/4 (2 ties) and the other 2 have a probability of 1/8 (3 ties) (1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 1, or 50% + 25% + 12.5% + 12.5% = 100%). If you still don't agree then show your calculations so we can see where one of us is going wrong. Sorry if any if this sounds patronising but I am trying to explain this for everyone, even the simplest mind, to understand and, you never know, shull might be reading it. It's all academic anyway, since we will finish above 9th. Imagine it was a round robin where all teams played each other once and the top team went up. What would be the probability of a team going up in a "league" of 4 using exactly the same logic of assigning 50-50 per match as you've used above? Edited April 25, 2017 by oaksoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 On 4/24/2017 at 5:34 AM, Slartibartfast said: But we could play team A then team C, not team B. Each team have a 50% (1 in 2) chance of winning their first tie and a 50% (1 in 2) chance of winning their second tie, therefore a 25% (1 in 4) chance of winning both ties. Nope. Any team could end up being beaten in the first game therefore they would a 100% chance of NOT winning. The two teams that are left will have the same 50-50 chance they had in the first game of winning promotion. Stats are sh!te. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Who gives a fcuk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, faraway saint said: Who gives a fcuk? You, or you wouldn't keep posting on the subject. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 19 hours ago, Soctty said: From first glance, that would seem the obvious answer, which I sense you're going to tell me is wrong. It's not one in 7 is it? No it's 8 to 1, all teams being equal, but you knew that. But the chances of your team getting chosen at random from the 15 teams to be given the "bye" is 15-1. Blow your brain with the Monty Hall conundrum below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: You, or you wouldn't keep posting on the subject. FFS, nip into the funny bone shop, you've lost yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stu Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Good thread, would read again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Assuming that all teams were "equal", before a ball was kicked each team would have a 1 in 4, 3 to 1, 25%, (P)=0.25 (whatever way you want to put it) chance to go up. They would have a 1 in 27 chance of winning all their games if games could be drawn or 1 in 8 if every game had to have a winner (assuming all outcomes - win/lose/draw - were equally likely). So to be clear you are saying that the odds of winning a 4 team competion when you have to play 3 games are the same as winning a 4 team competition when you only have to play 2 games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Assuming that all teams were "equal", before a ball was kicked each team would have a 1 in 4, 3 to 1, 25%, (P)=0.25 (whatever way you want to put it) chance to go up. They would have a 1 in 27 chance of winning all their games if games could be drawn or 1 in 8 if every game had to have a winner (assuming all outcomes - win/lose/draw - were equally likely). 7 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: So to be clear you are saying that the odds of winning a 4 team competion when you have to play 3 games are the same as winning a 4 team competition when you only have to play 2 games? That is exactly where I was going with it. The flaw is in a combination of not recognising that the playoffs are essentially a pseudo 3 team league and also assigning 50:50 chances of winning each game. Arithmetically I am unsure how to prove that last bit but the pseudo 3 team league is the root of the error. In that circumstance each team has a one in three chance It is not an easy problem to get your head around. Certainly not schoolchild level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.