E=Mc2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Scroll past this sequence of gems? Not a chance. Did I say chance? What chance? The answer is in the Dead Sea Scrolls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, E=Mc2 said: Scroll past this sequence of gems? Not a chance. Did I say chance? What chance? The answer is in the Dead Sea Scrolls. A 50-50 chance of missing one of the myriad of posts. Or would that be a 50-1 chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: It will matter if we end up in the playoffs - not that we will finish low enough to do so, IMO. Oh dear, the odds or chances matter fcuk all, it's how we play that matters, haven't you been listening over the last 3 months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 On 24/04/2017 at 11:14 AM, davidg said: There's a 1 in 2 chance I'm going to bring the padlock out for the first time this year! And a 1 in 2 chance of a FFS from Drew Padlock FFS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pozbaird Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 41 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: ^^^^^ First in the queue. Damn right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, faraway saint said: Aye, talking themselves into circles for something that matters not one jot. Oh FFS nothing we talk about on here matters one jot. We are all just shooting the breeze until death takes us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: OK, I'll actually get you to show the flaw. Before a ball is kicked, which team has a zero probability? The team that loses to the other team we don't play in the "semi". They are the team that has zero chance of beating us. Edited April 25, 2017 by TPAFKA Jersey 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Slartibartfast said: Right, we can solve this by looking at one part at a time. There are four teams (A - D). Tell me what you think the odds are for each of the four teams. You have made your first error already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, smcc said: A lot of hot air is being spouted. There are 4 teams in with a chance of coming out on top. It matters not a jot how many games have to be played; the chance of winning will be the same whether they play each other once, twice or twenty times. Actually it won't. That's the bit Slarti got right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 32 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: OK, I'll actually get you to show the flaw. Before a ball is kicked, which team has a zero probability? One of the teams who finishes in either second or third in League One will have zero probability of playing us. That is a factual condition and must be taken into account before a ball is kicked. You are failing to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Slartibartfast said: But there could be two teams who don't play us as we could lose our first tie. You are applying a condition before that condition has been met. Do you still think that there is a 4 in 3 chance of one of the four teams winning the playoffs? You asked me to explain who the team was that have zero chance of beating us. I said the team who loses the other semi final. How is that fact affected by our inability to win our semi? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 52 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: So you are saying that there are 4 teams who each have a 1 in 3 chance and therefore a total of 4 in 3? And there is your error. You are still talking about 4 teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, oaksoft said: One of the teams who finishes in either second or third in League One will have zero probability of playing us. That is a factual condition and must be taken into account before a ball is kicked. You are failing to do that. That's a better way of putting it. thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: But there could be two teams who don't play us as we could lose our first tie. You are applying a condition before that condition has been met. Nope. It is factually true regardless of whether we win the first game or not. That is why it is irrelevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uhura Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Your logic is the same as saying that - if I buy a ticket in the national lottery I'll either win or lose. Therefore it's fifty fifty. What you're doing is thinking that I've got a ticket which is a loser and someone else has a ticket that is a winner, it could have been the other way about therefore fifty fifty. Where you're going wrong is that you're not taking into account all of the other tickets that are losers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: That's a better way of putting it. thanks! I think we are helping each other out ......... like two drunks trying to negotiate a set of steps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, uhura said: Your logic is the same as saying that - if I buy a ticket in the national lottery I'll either win or lose. Therefore it's fifty fifty. What you're doing is thinking that I've got a ticket which is a loser and someone else has a ticket that is a winner, it could have been the other way about therefore fifty fifty. Where you're going wrong is that you're not taking into account all of the other tickets that are losers. Who are you addressing here? You can have two lottery winners so it is NOTHING like the playoffs. Edited April 25, 2017 by oaksoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, oaksoft said: I think we are helping each other out ......... like two drunks trying to negotiate a set of steps. i have a horrible feeling though that in the true law of statistics/probability, Slartibartfast is probably (no pun intended) correct. I further suspect that he knows exactly what we are trying to say, agrees with the spirit of what we are trying to say, but is intent on being a pedantic smartypants . If he is indeed correct, then I refer you to an earlier post of mine and would contend that the law of statistics/probability gobbles donkeys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Oh FFS nothing we talk about on here matters one jot. We are all just shooting the breeze until death takes us. What's the odds before the weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pozbaird Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Wish Peter Kay would hurry up and finish the third series of Car Share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 hours ago, stlucifer said: A 50-50 chance of missing one of the myriad of posts. Or would that be a 50-1 chance? 50-1? That'll be the numbers on oor big screen at 4.45pm on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shull Posted April 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Bring back Dickson At least when he was here, he kept all the Boring Buddie Brendans in General Nonsense, out the fecking way of decent and interesting Posters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, uhura said: Your logic is the same as saying that - if I buy a ticket in the national lottery I'll either win or lose. Therefore it's fifty fifty. What you're doing is thinking that I've got a ticket which is a loser and someone else has a ticket that is a winner, it could have been the other way about therefore fifty fifty. Where you're going wrong is that you're not taking into account all of the other tickets that are losers. I would love this idea. I would probably buy the losing ticket. I mean........................................................................what's the chances? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 23 minutes ago, shull said: Bring back Dickson At least when he was here, he kept all the Boring Buddie Brendans in General Nonsense, out the fecking way of decent and interesting Posters. Shull being outshulled! Whit's the odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antrin Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 hours ago, oaksoft said: I think we are helping each other out ......... like two drunks trying to negotiate a set of steps. And ignoring the elevator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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