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Dundee United v St Mirren Championship 22/4/17


shull

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3 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

 


Your post explained nothing of the sort.

I'm not the God of Numbers because there probably is no God. :)



I indisputably proved I was correct in my post - at least it is indisputable to noncontentious people.

We would only have to beat two teams, but which two?

We could lose to any of the other 3 teams so there are 3 chances we could lose and one chance we could win (3 to 1, 1 in 4, 25%). Or to rephrase, there are 4 teams who could win and only one of them is us.

 

It doesn't matter which 3. The fact is that each team essentially sees a 3 team league.

Your entire premise of thinking about it as 4 teams is wrong bud. It is non-intuitive because 4 teams physically take part.

Edited by oaksoft
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12 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

 


Your post explained nothing of the sort.

I'm not the God of Numbers because there probably is no God. :)



I indisputably proved I was correct in my post - at least it is indisputable to noncontentious people.

We would only have to beat two teams, but which two?

We could lose to any of the other 3 teams so there are 3 chances we could lose and one chance we could win (3 to 1, 1 in 4, 25%). Or to rephrase, there are 4 teams who could win and only one of them is us.

 

We WOULD only have 2 chances to lose IF WE WER|E TO END UP IN THE PLAY OFFS . The team who play in the other match and lose are "ghost" opponents. It's ridiculous to count a team you cannot play as part of the equation.

Edited by stlucifer
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4 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

 


Yes, but it is a different problem. In the round robin you could fail to win one of your "ties" and still win the competition in the other you have to win all tour ties to win the competition. Similar, but different.

 

Its the same problem but different conditions.

Would you want to compete in a league of 3 or a league of 4 where one team is promoted and chances are you would require at least 2 wins in the second scenario scenarios? In that second scenario you could win two games and draw the third and still fail to gain promotion. I would say that logic dictates that this CANNOT be of equal chance as the playoffs.

The playoffs have much better probability because winning both guarantees success.

 

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4 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

We WOULD only have 2 chances to lose IF WE WER|E TO END UP IN THE PLAY OFFS . The team who play in the other match and lose are "ghost" opponents. It's ridiculous to count a team you cannot play as part of the equation.

Exactly. That is why I called it a pseudo 3 team league.

The answer is 1 in 3.

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2 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

 


There is not a 3 team league though, there's not even a league. The way you are describing it means that the two losers in the first ties only see a two team league. Before a ball is kicked, you could only name 2 of your alleged 3 teams in our "league"

The way it is structured we have a 1/2 chance of winning our first tie and a 1/2 chance of winning our second (if we win the first). 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4.

The easy way to show you that you are wrong is to ask you what the chances for each of the other three teams are if our chance is 1 in 3.

Put it this way, if there are 4 teams and they all have an equal chance then each one has a 25% chance.

 

I think we are at an impasse unless I can find a way to convince you that from the perspective of each individlual team there are only two possible opponoents. You cannot include an opponent in these calculations where you have zero chance of playing them. The fact that you dont KNOW which will be your second opponent is irrelevant to you. That is only relevant to the team who plays them.

You have also persuaded yourself that each match is 50:50 but I cant figure out how to show you this. It might be that the Monty Hall thing above can illustrate why. You end up with a 2:3 and a 1:3 for a combination of 1 as required rather than 1:2.

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21 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

 


Your post explained nothing of the sort.

I'm not the God of Numbers because there probably is no God. :)



I indisputably proved I was correct in my post - at least it is indisputable to noncontentious people.

We would only have to beat two teams, but which two?

We could lose to any of the other 3 teams so there are 3 chances we could lose and one chance we could win (3 to 1, 1 in 4, 25%). Or to rephrase, there are 4 teams who could win and only one of them is us.

 

How can there be three chances we could lose when we can only play two ties. 

There are 3 teams we could lose to, but not 3 chances we could lose. 

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5 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

 

Sorry oaky, that doesn't make any sense at all. There are no conditions to apply before a ball is kicked.

 

There is. The condition is set by the league beforehand. In the case of the playoffs it means that no single team can play the other 3 teams in the playoffs. At most it is 2. To then include something with a probability of zero in a calculations is illogical.

To progress I think you really need to show the flaw in this.

Edited by oaksoft
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Just now, oaksoft said:

I appreciate we are discussing this in a match thread but can you guys not just scroll past this stuff?

Just a suggestion c/o shull.

I don't want to scroll past it. It's better than the telly now that Car Share is finished. I stand by my comment though - Jesus Fcuking Christ Almighty!

:lol:

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