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Brexit Negotiations


Bud the Baker

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13 hours ago, FTOF said:

They really haven't got a clue what they're doing. They mention carrying out  "sectorial analyses", because "guessing" what will happen won't do any good.:lol:

What reputation? Being an inept tit of a man?:lol:

Timeline

They would have got away for with it if it wasn't for that pesky statement in February 2017.:rolleyes:

The work has clearly been done and no amount of semantics should convince anyone otherwise.

I'm not one for conspiracy theories :rolleyes: but the only reasonable assumption for trying to keep the information secret is that it suggests the country will be worse off.

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2 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

The work has clearly been done and no amount of semantics should convince anyone otherwise.

I'm not one for conspiracy theories :rolleyes: but the only reasonable assumption for trying to keep the information secret is that it suggests the country will be worse off.

Far more likely is that the tolerance on the results is so bad that it simply isn't possible to make meaningful conclusions.

Not one of us can be certain about what will happen after we leave the EU. IMO, impact assessments are a complete waste of time at this stage.

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1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Far more likely is that the tolerance on the results is so bad that it simply isn't possible to make meaningful conclusions.

Not one of us can be certain about what will happen after we leave the EU. IMO, impact assessments are a complete waste of time at this stage.

Economics is not a science the answers are always open to interpretation, economic forecasts are published, scrutinized and ripped to shreds in the media on a regular basis and it's not even as if the implications of Brexit are in the long term - it's barely a year till Article 50 comes into effect. Anyway I remember as far back as, oh October 2017, when the reason given for not publishing them was that it would undermine our negotiating strategy! :lol 

This is what Davis said six weeks ago, no mention of the work being a "waste of time".

Quote

Mr Davis told the select committee that the House of Commons had decided not to publish anything that would "undermine national interest".

He said releasing industry-specific information was the equivalent of "giving a price list to the other side".

Here's what Chancellor Phillip Hammond said yesterday

Quote

Later, Chancellor Philip Hammond was asked whether the Treasury had produced analysis of the potential economic impact of Brexit.

He said his department had "modelled and analysed a whole range of potential alternative structures between the EU and the UK, potential alternative arrangements and agreements that might be made".

Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee, he suggested these could be made public when a Brexit deal has been agreed, but said to do so at this stage would be "deeply unhelpful to the negotiation".

He doesn't seem to think the models are a "waste of time" he's giving the reason Davis was giving six weeks ago.

******************************

Like I said it's only economics and there is room for many opinions, mine are that Davis is lucky he's a real boy and not made of wood, and that however much a "waste of time" the economic models are the real reason for keeping them secret is that they do not predict good times ahead for the UK.

Edited by Bud the Baker
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3 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

Economics is not a science the answers are always open to interpretation, economic forecasts are published, scrutinized and ripped to shreds in the media on a regular basis and it's not even as if the implications of Brexit are in the long term - it's barely a year till Article 50 comes into effect. Anyway I remember as far back as, oh October 2017, when the reason given for not publishing them was that it would undermine our negotiating strategy! :lol 

This is what Davis said six weeks ago, no mention of the work being a "waste of time".

Here's what Chancellor Phillip Hammond said yesterday

He doesn't seem to think the models are a "waste of time" he's giving the reason Davis was giving six weeks ago.

******************************

Like I said it's only economics and there is room for many opinions, mine are that Davis is lucky he's a real boy and not made of wood, and that however much a "waste of time" the economic models are the real reason for keeping them secret is that they do not predict good times ahead for the UK.

If you were in charge of negotiating with the EU over a Brexit deal (leaving aside the fact that you don't support Brexit), would you want your opponents to see exactly what your cards were? That would be a very odd strategy to take. :blink:

As for the economics of the situation, you may be right or you may be wrong. The only fact is that the decision has been made to exit the EU so unless a major change happens somewhere (and I still think it will), we are leaving the EU. The economic argument is therefore been rendered completely irrelevant by that one fact. Whatever happens, the country will just need to find a way of dealing with it. It is WAY too late for arguing over this stuff now.

Edited by oaksoft
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21 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

If you were in charge of negotiating with the EU over a Brexit deal (leaving aside the fact that you don't support Brexit), would you want your opponents to see exactly what your cards were? That would be a very odd strategy to take. :blink:

As for the economics of the situation, you may be right or you may be wrong. The only fact is that the decision has been made to exit the EU so unless a major change happens somewhere (and I still think it will), we are leaving the EU. The economic argument is therefore been rendered completely irrelevant by that one fact. Whatever happens, the country will just need to find a way of dealing with it. It is WAY too late for arguing over this stuff now.

I wouldn't be all that worried about what the other side at the negotiating table know, chances are they're using the same "waste of time" economic models as us.

The only surprise in these negotiations is that everyone forgot the DUP were coming from the 17th century.

You are correct tho' that it's all done & dusted now, the UK will take whatever the EU give us. I suppose there's always the possibility the Tories will implode and we can beg to get the whole thing called off.

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Just watched the Junker/May press conference, it was all a bit vague and contained contradictory statements about which courts would have the ultimate responsibility - May said the UK courts, Junker the European ones. :wacko:

Details to follow........................

**************

Ah it's a bit clearer now.

On Citizens Rights UK courts to decide but with EU oversight.

On the Irish border, a soft one, but a seat for the DUP at the negotiating table when issues arise giving the DUP opportunities to dip into the pork barrel in years to come.

On the Divorce Bill, the EU can whistle for it & Boris will send the cash over.

Edited by Bud the Baker
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It's all clear now...............

Quote

Canadian model 'basis' for UK-EU talks says Barnier

Michel Barnier concluded his press conference by talking about the all-important question of the UK's future relationship with the EU.

He says there are a "range of models" that so-called third party countries have with the EU, mentioning Norway, Turkey, Ukraine and Canada, which all have a "balance of rights and responsibilities".

He suggests the UK's "red lines" in the negotiation - Theresa May has said the UK will leave the customs union and the single market - rule out a number of the possibilities.

Where does that leave the UK, he hypothesises?

Just one thing - a free trade agreement on the Canadian model. It is not us, it is the British government, which is indicating these red lines that is closing certain doors. That is the model we are going to have to work on."

This is highly significant.

Let's all take a deep breath and listen to the our new national anthem...................

 

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On ‎23‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 10:20 AM, Bud the Baker said:

Well that's us less than a week in and the UK government has already caved in over the sequence of talks wrt the "divorce bill" and citizens rights being sorted before trade discussions begin in October.

The eventual deal will be whatever the EU wants with the UK being left to "take it or leave it" and does anyone really doubt we'll take it?

My next successful prediction is a Saints win today! :holiday

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Quote

The government has been narrowly defeated in a key vote on its Brexit bill after a rebellion by Tory MPs.

In a blow to Prime Minister Theresa May, MPs voted to give Parliament a legal guarantee of a vote on the final Brexit deal struck with Brussels.

The government had argued this would jeopardise its chances of delivering a smooth Brexit.

The amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill tabled by ex-Attorney General Dominic Grieve was backed by 309 to 305.

The government's first Commons defeat on its Brexit strategy came after opposition parties joined forces with Conservative rebels during a heated debate in the Chamber.

 

Critics accused those behind the amendment - which was championed by pro-Remain campaigners - of trying to "frustrate" Brexit and tying the government's hands.

But it was backed by the Commons, meaning a new Act of Parliament will have to be passed before ministers can implement the withdrawal deal struck with Brussels.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
13 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:
15 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:
Brexit: UK could join Pacific free trade zone, says Liam Fox
Just when you thought it couldn't get more bizarre!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42552877 

We'll end up in every trade association except the EU and it will cost us billions. Don't get me wrong, I voted to leave but these cunts haven't a clue what they're doing.

So your to blame! Who's going to buy your sweet pastries once the loose sweet toothed suvern oirish  drift off into the mid atlantic once the partition moat has been dug to soothe those in the norf on their white chargers?

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On 12/7/2017 at 1:26 PM, oaksoft said:

Far more likely is that the tolerance on the results is so bad that it simply isn't possible to make meaningful conclusions.

Not one of us can be certain about what will happen after we leave the EU. IMO, impact assessments are a complete waste of time at this stage.

There are a range of things you can be certain of, but they mostly relate to changes that are unquantifiable.

But already significant numbers of financial services posts have moved to other EU countries or are scheduled to do so,  certain manufacturers have already made decision about next-gen products and production-they just aren't all telling us yet.

My money is on BREXINO being employed as a means of harm reduction.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Cat out of the bag?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-updates-uk-leave-eu-norway-transition-terms-parliament-theresa-may-a8173076.html

Quote

The UK has already “agreed in principle” to a Norway-style Brexit transition period in which it accepts all EU rules with no power to shape them, a senior figure in Brussels has told The Independent.

A key member of the European Parliament’s Brexit team said British negotiators raised no objections to the plans, which would mean accepting free movement and customs union rules, and falling under the European Court’s jurisdiction. 

 

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12 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

Sounds like initially it is a softer exit which then proceeds to a full exit . .

Whatever happens , this process will change the face of Europe and perhaps pave the way for the other countries that now want to leave. .

I guess we see things differently, I feel it chimes with my OP that the eventual deal will be on the EU's terms. 

I agree with your second point that there's probably a few other countries waiting to see what happens to us before deciding what to do themselves but IMO that's just another reason for the EU to play hardball. 

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I think whatever happens here , this is the begining of the end for the Fourth Reich the European super state , it has already reached its high tide mark and now it will recede . .

All the wee countries of Europe will go back to working together without being dictated to by Berlin Brussels and having suppressive trading law shoved down their throats. .or the Euro foisted on them for that matter . .

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