To be fair I may have misinterpreted your post and if so I humbly apologise.
I read it as if we need pens to beat Israel then Serbia will sweep us aside. I think that was an acceptable way to interpret the post, but re-reading it now, I can see you may have simply meant if we get through we’ll get gubbed.
Either way I still don’t think theirs much between the teams and I don’t think we’ll get swept aside. I do agree of course that the bookies will make Serbia favourites and probably rightly so.
Re Norway v Serbia, I had just been quite impressed with the way Norway have played in their recent games (particularly the mauling of NI) whereas I felt Serbia had been a bit more in the doldrums recently.
I suppose it just goes to prove my point that there’s little between all the teams.
Head says we’ll lose 1-0 in Serbia.
Heart says we’ll win 2-1.
PS you did mention pens 😃