The Referendum Thread

[FTOF]

I don't think most Scots care or would even have been aware (before independance talk) that the subs are in Helensburgh.

You are joking?

Right?

[Drew]

You are joking?

Right?

Indeed. What an odd thing to claim.

[irvine_buddie]

Indeed. What an odd thing to claim.

Why? Just because you are so against it you think everyone is? I don't know a single person who is particular against Faslane staying in Scotland (and I dont mean people who work here).

This is a myth.

I live in the area, and know enough about the local history and demography to see through the oft trotted out position that the likes of Jackie Baillie (local MSP) and other BT folks cling to. It is emotive, and obviously resonantes locally, but is easy enough to refute.

The local economy has evolved over recent decades, with very significant shifts in employment patterns. 30 - 40 years ago, a couple of the biggest employers in the area were Westclox (around 1100 employees) and Polariod (as much as 2000 employees at its peak). Both were based at the Strathleven Industrial estate, which , at its height, provided employment for in excess of 4000 people. Polaroid has all but closed its operations, and now employs a fraction of the number it previously did. Westclox is no longer in existance, and several other big employers have either moved away or shut down entirely.

Did the loss of all these job opportunities destroy the local area? Well, it certainly didn't help. Add to that, the loss of numerous whisky bonds and bottling plants over the years, and we do have a depressed economy in many respects, but, increasingly, this area has become a commuter belt. Half an hour by car or train to Glasgow, and 10 minutes from the M8, while other commercial enterprises have developed and enhanced the local economy. You just have to look at the number of new houses being built at the Lomond Gate development area (just off the A82 past Dumbarton en route to Balloch) to get a sense of the growth locally. These new build estates aren't materialising on the basis of Faslane being 12 miles down the road.

Many of the folk working at the Faslane base have transferable skills/qualifications. I know qualified engineers, joiners, and mechanics, who are MOD Police officers (or MOD Plod, as we refer to them). They could reasonably be expected to have a continuing role if the base was to be utilised for a small naval fleet in the event that the Trident subs departed. An independent Scotland woud still require a fleet of ships to patrol national waters etc. If the jobs weren't there, the money saved in not having to fund the nuclear deterrent (the proportion of that cost that lies with Scotland) could be used to generate new industry locally. This happens all over the country, and in nations across the globe. Economies are constantly evolving, and there is a requirement to reallign local community priorities to acknowledge and respond to this.

I'm not being glib about this. I appreciate that it is an anxiety for many people, and would require a lot of will and commitment to address, but is this really a justification for maintaining a site for abhorrent weapons that cost billions to maintain?

There may be other job opportunities in the area but there aren't very many jobs in the same or similiar industry or anywhere the near the salaries. You say the skills are transferrable, but trust me.. a large percentage of the poeple working at Faslane and Coulport have done so their whole careers and have very specific nuclear experience and qualifications so would need to either move down south or to Aberdeen for the oil industry to get a job.

The MOD police and guards you mentioned wouldn't be required if the base lost the subs and was only kept for surface ships. You think a normal naval base needs the same security and protection as a nuclear site and a base where they hold nuclear weapons?

Personally, I dont really care either way as I'm young and not planning on working here my whole career and it would take the best part of a decade to build a suitable replacement in England and decomission HMNB Clyde.

[Drew]

There may be other job opportunities in the area but there aren't very many jobs in the same or similiar industry or anywhere the near the salaries.

Tell that to all the workers from the likes of Caterpillar, Motorolla, IBM, BAE, Grangemouth, Ravenscraig, UCS, the mining industry etc...etc... It is the way with post-industrial economies, and isn't likely to change anytime soon, whether we like it or not. Some level of adaptation is always required - this wouldn't be a Faslane-specific siutation by any manner of means.

Oh, and I know fine about the level of salaries. Why do you think many people who do have a trade or other qualification take MOD Plod jobs? It certainly isn't out of a sense of public service duty, that's for sure.

You say the skills are transferrable, but trust me.. a large percentage of the poeple working at Faslane and Coulport have done so their whole careers and have very specific nuclear experience and qualifications so would need to either move down south or to Aberdeen for the oil industry to get a job.

See above.

The MOD police and guards you mentioned wouldn't be required if the base lost the subs and was only kept for surface ships. You think a normal naval base needs the same security and protection as a nuclear site and a base where they hold nuclear weapons?

I appreciate that many of the MOD Plods wouldn't be required. That would constitute a very significant cost saving, incidentally. As it goes, many of them do have other trades, qualification, and experence to fall back on. I know this, as I live among them (maybe a few less holidays to Dubai would be on the cards).

Personally, I dont really care either way as I'm young and not planning on working here my whole career and it would take the best part of a decade to build a suitable replacement in England and decomission HMNB Clyde.

Good for you, but you referred to the potential of my community being "destroyed". I do care about that, but as it wouldn't happen, I won't be losing any sleep over it.

[Stuart Dickson]

Good story... although the hotel were quite right to reserve the right to refuse them if they wanted as they aren't "Legal Tender"

http://www.scotbanks.org.uk/legal_position.php

If you factor in the margin of error it shows that the Natsi are making no progress at all - a consistent trend throughput the whole campaign. People are now entrenched and the SNP don't have anything other than a fantasist wishlist.

If the SNP want independence the best thing they could have done is ban Scots from voting and let the population of England decide.

[Maboza]

Why? Just because you are so against it you think everyone is? I don't know a single person who is particular against Faslane staying in Scotland (and I dont mean people who work here).

There may be other job opportunities in the area but there aren't very many jobs in the same or similiar industry or anywhere the near the salaries. You say the skills are transferrable, but trust me.. a large percentage of the poeple working at Faslane and Coulport have done so their whole careers and have very specific nuclear experience and qualifications so would need to either move down south or to Aberdeen for the oil industry to get a job.

The MOD police and guards you mentioned wouldn't be required if the base lost the subs and was only kept for surface ships. You think a normal naval base needs the same security and protection as a nuclear site and a base where they hold nuclear weapons?

Personally, I dont really care either way as I'm young and not planning on working here my whole career and it would take the best part of a decade to build a suitable replacement in England and decomission HMNB Clyde.

Genuine question,..... how many people work directly at Faslane? and what percentage do you think have 'very specific nuclear experience' that you mention?

[Stuart Dickson]

This is a myth.

I live in the area, and know enough about the local history and demography to see through the oft trotted out position that the likes of Jackie Baillie (local MSP) and other BT folks cling to. It is emotive, and obviously resonantes locally, but is easy enough to refute.

The local economy has evolved over recent decades, with very significant shifts in employment patterns. 30 - 40 years ago, a couple of the biggest employers in the area were Westclox (around 1100 employees) and Polariod (as much as 2000 employees at its peak). Both were based at the Strathleven Industrial estate, which , at its height, provided employment for in excess of 4000 people. Polaroid has all but closed its operations, and now employs a fraction of the number it previously did. Westclox is no longer in existance, and several other big employers have either moved away or shut down entirely.

Did the loss of all these job opportunities destroy the local area? Well, it certainly didn't help. Add to that, the loss of numerous whisky bonds and bottling plants over the years, and we do have a depressed economy in many respects, but, increasingly, this area has become a commuter belt. Half an hour by car or train to Glasgow, and 10 minutes from the M8, while other commercial enterprises have developed and enhanced the local economy. You just have to look at the number of new houses being built at the Lomond Gate development area (just off the A82 past Dumbarton en route to Balloch) to get a sense of the growth locally. These new build estates aren't materialising on the basis of Faslane being 12 miles down the road.

Many of the folk working at the Faslane base have transferable skills/qualifications. I know qualified engineers, joiners, and mechanics, who are MOD Police officers (or MOD Plod, as we refer to them). They could reasonably be expected to have a continuing role if the base was to be utilised for a small naval fleet in the event that the Trident subs departed. An independent Scotland woud still require a fleet of ships to patrol national waters etc. If the jobs weren't there, the money saved in not having to fund the nuclear deterrent (the proportion of that cost that lies with Scotland) could be used to generate new industry locally. This happens all over the country, and in nations across the globe. Economies are constantly evolving, and there is a requirement to reallign local community priorities to acknowledge and respond to this.

I'm not being glib about this. I appreciate that it is an anxiety for many people, and would require a lot of will and commitment to address, but is this really a justification for maintaining a site for abhorrent weapons that cost billions to maintain?

Drew that's probably true. I live in the heartland of Ravenscraig and numerous coal mines. I saw the effect of Ravenscraig closing. The air got fresher and the views became prettier. The place went through a period of licking its wounds. Many who were employed there never worked again. But with 10 years New houses were built and families moved to the area attracted by cheap houses and good travel links.

Whether it's closure or a move to a single sub base - as was shown was all the SNP defence budget could afford - it will be devastating for the local area, but as we've seen Lanarkshire recovered and so would your local area. Oh wait. Maybe it wouldn't. After all Scotland would be independent. Would the SNP have the same success in attracting foreign investment as Thatcher, Major, Blair and Brown did to NL?

[irvine_buddie]

Genuine question,..... how many people work directly at Faslane? and what percentage do you think have 'very specific nuclear experience' that you mention?

About 4000 civilians.. and I'd guess about 30%.

There may be other job opportunities in the area but there aren't very many jobs in the same or similiar industry or anywhere the near the salaries.

Tell that to all the workers from the likes of Caterpillar, Motorolla, IBM, BAE, Grangemouth, Ravenscraig, UCS, the mining industry etc...etc... It is the way with post-industrial economies, and isn't likely to change anytime soon, whether we like it or not. Some level of adaptation is always required - this wouldn't be a Faslane-specific siutation by any manner of means.

Oh, and I know fine about the level of salaries. Why do you think many people who do have a trade or other qualification take MOD Plod jobs? It certainly isn't out of a sense of public service duty, that's for sure.

Don't really see what point you are trying to make here? So you are justifying shutting down one of the areas biggest employers by saying that other companies have done the same?

You say the skills are transferrable, but trust me.. a large percentage of the poeple working at Faslane and Coulport have done so their whole careers and have very specific nuclear experience and qualifications so would need to either move down south or to Aberdeen for the oil industry to get a job.

See above.

The MOD police and guards you mentioned wouldn't be required if the base lost the subs and was only kept for surface ships. You think a normal naval base needs the same security and protection as a nuclear site and a base where they hold nuclear weapons?

I appreciate that many of the MOD Plods wouldn't be required. That would constitute a very significant cost saving, incidentally. As it goes, many of them do have other trades, qualification, and experence to fall back on. I know this, as I live among them (maybe a few less holidays to Dubai would be on the cards).

It wouldnt be a cost saving.. the jobs would just go to different people in the new site down south.

Personally, I dont really care either way as I'm young and not planning on working here my whole career and it would take the best part of a decade to build a suitable replacement in England and decomission HMNB Clyde.

Good for you, but you referred to the potential of my community being "destroyed". I do care about that, but as it wouldn't happen, I won't be losing any sleep over it.

I think you are taking the word 'destroyed' a bit too literally.. it will survive and it will adapt over time but there will be thousands of civillians out of work and thousands of Navy personnel moving out of the area.

[Vambo57]

If you factor in the margin of error it shows that the Natsi are making no progress at all - a consistent trend throughput the whole campaign. People are now entrenched and the SNP don't have anything other than a fantasist wishlist.

If the SNP want independence the best thing they could have done is ban Scots from voting and let the population of England decide.

If were such a drain on the UK's resources, why are the politicians trying so hard to keep us?

[FTOF]

If were such a drain on the UK's resources, why are the politicians trying so hard to keep us?

Indeed.

The poll in the link below suggests that 60% of English/Welsh voters don't want us to vote for Independence.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/01/english-welsh-majority-against-scots-independence

Edited April 10, 2014 by FTOF

[beyond our ken]

It would seem to me that the only person getting wound up is your good self.

The "Yes" campaign know fine well that it is huge gamble to vote for independence. However, what we in Scotland have at the moment isn't what the "Yes" campaign think works best for the country.

I know I'm right about the current SNP silence, as I've spoken to someone heavily involved in the "Yes" campaign, who incidentally isn't an SNP supporter, and there are plenty of that particular ilk of "Yes" supporter. They didn't plan it this way, but they've adapted to circumstances that they could only dream of coming to pass as they didn't think BT would be so short sighted and so negative.

Of course a lot of the Independence plans involve unknowns, but for me, so are much of the UK Governments London centric, future plans. Who would have thought a "Bedroom tax" would ever have come to fruition?

The BT campaign has been viciously negative and has largely written off the Scots as a nation at almost every opportunity. The UK Government's bluff has been called several times and they've failed to offer a realistic explanation as to why they've lied to everyone.

Like it or not, this type of attitude has increased the feeling for Independence amongst the Scottish population. Whether these people have the conviction to vote "Yes" when the day eventually comes, we'll have to wait and see.

What has happened is that the smug assertion that it would be a walkover for the "No" vote, has left some people with egg on their face.

I've never been involved in politics and my decision isn't entirely based on political ideologies. My decision is based on what I perceive as poor running of our country by a UK government that does not have our best interests at heart. It won't be easy and I'll have to make some sacrifices, but in the end I believe Scotland will be better off in the long term, if we show some belief in ourselves.

I would also add that I don't agree with every SNP policy that exists and I'm not entirely happy with the Scottish Government's decisions. In the event of a "Yes" vote, at least we can take full responsibility for our actions and try to rectify the situation.

It is best to stay away from Bludick Rick and his rants, although it tickles me when he resorts to namecalling even after he complains about other people doing it

[Stuart Dickson]

If were such a drain on the UK's resources, why are the politicians trying so hard to keep us?

I'm not saying Scotland is a drain - nor were the few English people I spoke to about it - but it is true that they are bored rigid of the whole whining Scots thing and would gladly see Scotland cut adrift. I'm sure that rUK are very confident of their ability to survive without the Scotland appendage and that they'd certainly be more confident of carrying on regardless than Scots are without the shelter and comfort of rUK, Even Alex Salmond wants the comfort and protection of shared power lines, shared gas lines, and shared currency amongst many other things that would be a necessity to make an "independent" Scotland even remotely viable.

[Stuart Dickson]

One major advantage of the SNP damaging Faslane so badly and decimating jobs in the local community there is that perhaps now the Proclaimers will have to rethink some of their lyrics.

It'd be a bit bizarre to ask if "my blood will ever return" to kick life back into a dying mutual friend, when Scotlands first Independent government will be initiating closures and job losses on a scale that would dwarf the combined total of the four "Thatcher" job loss references they make in the song.

Edited April 10, 2014 by Stuart Dickson

[Isle Of Bute Saint]

One major advantage of the SNP damaging Faslane so badly and decimating jobs in the local community there is that perhaps now the Proclaimers will have to rethink some of their lyrics.

It'd be a bit bizarre to ask if "my blood will ever return" to kick life back into a dying mutual friend, when Scotlands first Independent government will be initiating closures and job losses on a scale that would dwarf the combined total of the four "Thatcher" job loss references they make in the song.

Did you watch News Night last night Stuart ? The English expert on fuel saying Scotland's bills would not go up and that England would need to take energy for their fuel in England. Any why I am writing this I don't know because you just pull more fairy stories out of the sky for your own agenda. Will never able to pin you down if it's not bad mouthing Saints it's your a strong Tory supporter. That in its self sums you up perfectly so keep up you long posts on independence as I can't think of a better way to convince fellow buds to vote YES

[Stuart Dickson]

Did you watch News Night last night Stuart ? The English expert on fuel saying Scotland's bills would not go up and that England would need to take energy for their fuel in England. Any why I am writing this I don't know because you just pull more fairy stories out of the sky for your own agenda. Will never able to pin you down if it's not bad mouthing Saints it's your a strong Tory supporter. That in its self sums you up perfectly so keep up you long posts on independence as I can't think of a better way to convince fellow buds to vote YES

Yeah I watched it LS and it looks to me like you didn't really follow anything that was being said.

I'll try to keep it simple. Ed Davey - the UK Minister for Energy and a Liberal Democrat - made the point yesterday that if Scotland were to become independent the rUK would pull subsidies that it currently pays to the Scottish Government for Green Energy Projects and for projects like the Western Isles Interconnector. This would leave the Scottish Energy Consumer and taxpayer on the hook for the bill. It's really simple logic and no one is arguing with it at all. If you have a fixed cost project it's obviously going to cost more per household if you split the bill 3million ways, instead of 30million ways.

Where Fergus Ewing, Chris Goodall found argument was that they believe that England will have a commercial need to buy electricity from Scotland at prices that would offset the loss of the subsidy. Ed Davy and the other expert on the show - David Hunter - were saying that whilst there may well be a need to buy from Scotland it isn't the only market out there that they can buy from. Scotland would be in competition with France and Ireland in the short term to supply England with electricity, and that longer term the rUK government would be far more likely to generate their own energy from within England - as is evident with the new nuclear plants that are going to be built in England and Wales and with the likely extraction of the huge deposits of shail gas in Lancashire.

Now you can pick your side as you see fit, but the fact that EDF are to build a new nuclear power plant in Somerset and that the Westminster government has committed to having 8 new nuclear plants on the grid by 2023 surely points to a flaw in the long term viability of the Scottish Government strategy.

Edited April 10, 2014 by Stuart Dickson

[Stuart Dickson]

So are you saying your argument is flawed if the UK Government can't deliver 8 new nuclear plants on the grid by 2023?

No not really. Even the worst projections for energy supply v demand in England over the next few years shows that they will be able to "keep the lights on" without the need to import. It's just that some agencies are predicting that the margins will become tighter in the next few years whilst new projects are constructed and they are turned on.

Even if you assume that England will need to import then each new wind turbine, each new wave turbine, each power station turned on / back on in England and Wales diminishes the market that an Independent Scotland can sell into.

Another flaw in the SNP case is that it doesn't take into account the moves to reduce energy consumption across the whole of the UK. Companies such as the one I work for have successfully managed to reduce energy consumption in some of the retail outlets and office blocks we've worked with by almost 30%. As the same tools become available in the domestic market I feel confident that whilst England and Wales will increase their ability to produce more energy, they too will be likely to find that there is a decreased level of demand

Edited April 10, 2014 by Stuart Dickson

[Isabella Duke]

In amongst all the posts, Lochwinnoch Saint's meltdown is hilarious!

[oaksoft]

I have read the white paper.

You expect us to believe you've sat down and read a 650-odd page document about a country you don't even live in?

[Stuart Dickson]

Why not, is it because you just made up a date and posted it on here.

Why do you do that, are you just stupid or a compulsive liar?

New nuclear power station sites

Eight sites have been assessed as potentially suitable for the deployment of new nuclear power stations in England and Wales before the end of 2025.

Before a nuclear power station is built, its design must be assessed to find out if the social, economic or other benefits outweigh the health detriment of ionising radiation. This assessment process is known as regulatory justification.

All new nuclear reactor designs are subject to a Generic Design Assessment (GDA), which is also known as pre-licensing.

[oaksoft]

Only five months and nine days to go. Whoopee!

It could be worse. Take Northern Ireland for example.

When was the last time we heard anything from there which didn't relate to sectarianism, bombings, terrorism and security related issues?

It's in the papers again today.

40 years and counting.

It may be 5 months but it's OUR 5 months not yours.

[oaksoft]

Putin is a wee bit frightening.

Really? More frightening than the UK or US?

I must have missed the bit where Putin's Russia invaded Afghanistan and Iraq.

I must have missed the bit where they threatened Iran and North Korea.

Maybe a bit less self absorption would allow you to see who the real aggressors are.

[oaksoft]

One major advantage of the SNP damaging Faslane so badly and decimating jobs in the local community there is that perhaps now the Proclaimers will have to rethink some of their lyrics.

It'd be a bit bizarre to ask if "my blood will ever return" to kick life back into a dying mutual friend, when Scotlands first Independent government will be initiating closures and job losses on a scale that would dwarf the combined total of the four "Thatcher" job loss references they make in the song.

One set of lyrics they won't be revising is:-

"I can't understand

Why we let someone else

Rule our land.

Cap in hand."

[Stuart Dickson]

One set of lyrics they won't be revising is:-

"I can't understand

Why we let someone else

Rule our land.

Cap in hand."

Very true Oaksoft. Except I suppose in future they'll be referring to the EU rather than the UK.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Stuart Dickson

[FTOF]

How many times is that now that you've posted inaccurate information, wither it be you lying or just being so stupid for everyone to see.

Far more times than he can count up to. So don't expect an answer, unless he's made it up.

[beyond our ken]

No not really. Even the worst projections for energy supply v demand in England over the next few years shows that they will be able to "keep the lights on" without the need to import. It's just that some agencies are predicting that the margins will become tighter in the next few years whilst new projects are constructed and they are turned on.

Even if you assume that England will need to import then each new wind turbine, each new wave turbine, each power station turned on / back on in England and Wales diminishes the market that an Independent Scotland can sell into.

Another flaw in the SNP case is that it doesn't take into account the moves to reduce energy consumption across the whole of the UK. Companies such as the one I work for have successfully managed to reduce energy consumption in some of the retail outlets and office blocks we've worked with by almost 30%. As the same tools become available in the domestic market I feel confident that whilst England and Wales will increase their ability to produce more energy, they too will be likely to find that there is a decreased level of demand

Eric Pickles is single handedly destroying onshore wind energy in England, there will be no major wind developments whilst he is communities minister.

Have you not seen the recent announcements by SSE and Vattenfall that they wont be investing in offshore wind in the UK, bar a few Scottish based projects for SSE? All due to tory energy policy. Indeed, Scottish Power may only complete their current offshore wind joint venture project and then focus attention on German offshore wind, alongside major expansion of their Scottish onshore wind portfolio. Wave energy won't work and whilst tidal is much more feasible, the technology is not quite their yet and much depends on government funding, which looked very positive a few years ago but is now much less certain.

England's only option is to sanction thermal or nuclear generation, which wil take years if not decades to come on-stream, or to have a baseload/top-up sharing scheme with Scottish renewables generators.