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The Referendum Thread


Lanarkshire_Bud

Scottish Independence Referendum  

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24 hours? I wouldn't give the feckers 24 seconds :-)

Is this what the referendum is doing for Scotland? Turning some of our nationalist dafties into Scottish Extremists who think blowing up fellow Scots in a bid to tackle opposition to their Xenophobic Nationalistic agenda is acceptable, maybe even funny? :rolleyes:

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Is this what the referendum is doing for Scotland? Turning some of our nationalist dafties into Scottish Extremists who think blowing up fellow Scots in a bid to tackle opposition to their Xenophobic Nationalistic agenda is acceptable, maybe even funny? :rolleyes:

Here fishy fishy.

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Ah...didn't Hitler use a similar defence after the Reichstag fire?

I don't recall anyone suggesting that the Nazis threatened to burn down the Reichstag, and, as far as I am aware, the Scottish National Liberation Army has not committed arson.

Edited by smcc
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Why is anyone defending the actions of the SNLA? Surely there should have been an out and out condemnation of any terrorist threat. This isn't the first time Adam Busby's organisation has done this kind of thing. The man is a convicted terrorist, a hoaxer and someone who reportedly tried to join forces with the Provisional IRA.

Is it because the man was originally from Seedhill, or is it that generally Yes Voters have lost their morality?

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Nobody has defended the actions of the SNLA - you're just misreading posts again (probably deliberately).

You're trying to link unrelated things again - the Yes campaign and SNP to the SNLA (you are aware that Salmond was a target of their letterbomb campaign, aren't you?). It would be like saying that because you want out of the EU and that UKIP / National Front / EDL etc. want out of the EU then you must support those organisations. That's a proper analogy - nothing like your burning building crap.

That's exactly what some forum users have tried to insinuate though with the linking of the No campaign to those groups you've named and with the Orange Order. The thing is I'd never defend organizations who acted in a manner that didnt represent my values.

On here we've got one yes voter saying they shouldn't have given Better Together 24 hours notice and we've got another defending their actions saying they've never committed arson. Attempts to terrorise the opposition with threats and intimidation is purely a Yes Campaign thing and I can't see any condemnation at all from nationalists

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Trying to relieve the tedium of "my das bigger than you da!"

Mr Dickson - does it not disturb you a little that the poll on this website has remains at a constant TWO THIRDS - YES! for sometime, not cause you some concern?

(Genuine question!)

No not in the slightest. It's not reflected by any other poll in any other part of the country. Indeed if anything we are seeing the mirror image everywhere else. Even in a Panelbase poll of football supporters it found that contrary to this poll St Mirren fans remain firmly in the No camp whilst the majority of Rangers and Celtic fans claimed they would vote Yes.

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Another poll out today, TNS:

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.Ku/sto/news/uk_news/article1431131.ece

No 59

Yes 41

The union appears to be cantering home to a decisive victory. No complacency though, let's all get out there and vote and bury this nationalist nonsense once and for all. A 20 point win is more than achievable here, indeed wouldn't surprise me if it finished around 65-35.

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Another poll out today, TNS:

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.Ku/sto/news/uk_news/article1431131.ece

No 59

Yes 41

The union appears to be cantering home to a decisive victory. No complacency though, let's all get out there and vote and bury this nationalist nonsense once and for all. A 20 point win is more than achievable here, indeed wouldn't surprise me if it finished around 65-35.

Brace yourself for a dramatic swing, my feline friendwink.png

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Trying to relieve the tedium of "my das bigger than you da!"

Mr Dickson - does it not disturb you a little that the poll on this website has remains at a constant TWO THIRDS - YES! for sometime, not cause you some concern?

(Genuine question!)

Oh, come on :lol:

I would concede it's likely that yes is winning among football fans that post and vote in polls on online forums.

Thankfully, this makes up a minuscule fraction of the voting populace.

Does it concern you that YES is losing heavily in every single properly weighted and conducted poll? If it doesn't, it should.

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Brace yourself for a dramatic swing, my feline friendwink.png

I've been hearing that since May 2012, when the yes campaign was launched. That was more than 2 years ago, there's little over 2 months to go.

How much longer do we need to wait for this dramatic swing? :lol:

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I've been hearing that since May 2012, when the yes campaign was launched. That was more than 2 years ago, there's little over 2 months to go.

How much longer do we need to wait for this dramatic swing? lol.gif:

There is precedent....

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-labour-still-on-course-for-victory-1096899

whistling.gif

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That was a multi party election, there is a huge difference between that and a two choice referendum. Some Labour voters drifted to Lib, some to Green, some to SNP. There was a lot of options for the disillusioned labour voter. Here there's only two options, yes or no, the potential for voter drift is extremely limited. Also the no campaign isn't carrying the huge amount of baggage that Labour was carrying in 2010.

From the start the yes campaign has always been about managing defeat, Salmond and his cronies aren't daft. In their HQ I bet they would have been targeting a yes vote of 45% and scope for another referendum in the next 20 years.

The bad news for them is that it's now looking like an uphill struggle to even get that.

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That was a multi party election, there is a huge difference between that and a two choice referendum. Some Labour voters drifted to Lib, some to Green, some to SNP. There was a lot of options for the disillusioned labour voter. Here there's only two options, yes or no, the potential for voter drift is extremely limited. Also the no campaign isn't carrying the huge amount of baggage that Labour was carrying in 2010.

From the start the yes campaign has always been about managing defeat, Salmond and his cronies aren't daft. In their HQ I bet they would have been targeting a yes vote of 45% and scope for another referendum in the next 20 years.

The bad news for them is that it's now looking like an uphill struggle to even get that.

The point is, the polls are not always a representative snapshot of the prevailing climate among the voting population. The situation in 2011 is clearly indicative of this.

In terms of the referendum, the status quo will always have the upper hand - of course it will. I think it is quite remarkable that so many people are willing to consider making the break given our generally risk averse, unimaginative, and apathetic ways.

I will be (very pleasantly) surprised if the YES vote wins the day, but would suggest that your over-reliance on what the pollsters are indicating is a little crude and could trip you up yet. It will be a damn sight closer than 20 percentage points, believe me.

Edited by Drew
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The point is, the polls are not always a representative snapshot of the prevailing climate among the voting population. The situation in 2011 is clearly indicative of this.

In terms of the referendum, the status quo will always have the upper hand - of course it will. I think it is quite remarkable that so many people are willing to consider making the break given our generally risk averse, unimaginative, and apathetic ways.

I will be (very pleasantly) surprised if the YES vote wins the day, but would suggest that your over-reliance on what the pollsters are indicating is a little crude and could trip you up yet. It will be a damn sight closer than 20 percentage points, believe me.

It's not just one pollster though, it's every single pollster, every single bookmaker. Do you genuinely believe all of them are so badly wrong?

One poll had support for the status quo around 20%, I'd agree with that. I'm not voting no for the status quo, I would like to see more devolution and eventually full federalisation of the UK.

Edited by TopCat
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It's not just one pollster though, it's every single pollster, every single bookmaker. Do you genuinely believe all of them are so badly wrong?

One poll had support for the status quo around 20%, I'd agree with that. I'm not voting no for the status quo, I would like to see more devolution and eventually full federalisation of the UK.

As you suggested earlier, the current question is a simple YES/NO, so it is about radical change versus the status quo. That's quite straightforward, though little else is.

FWIW, I have also previously noted where I deviate from the current independence proposals. I am in favour of a Scottish republic, with no membership of NATO, and remain ambivalent about EU membership. As things stand, however, such ideals will never be achieved under current constitutional arrangements, so change is needed, and this is a step in the right direction.

Whether every bookie and pollster is wrong is a question that will only be answered in the fullness of time. It is a matter of how accurate or otherwise their predications and extrapolations turn out to be that I am interested in, however. As I say, BT is in the box seat, irrespective of their woeful campaigning and negative diatribes. It would be utterly astonishing if they weren't. I reckon it will be closer than some imagine, for all that.

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Here's a wee exercise for folk.

Why not ask 10 people you know how they are going to vote and post your percentages here.

Don't ask them leading questions or try to influence them.

Just simply ask 10 folk and let's see whether we get the same results as pollsters are getting.

Edited by oaksoft
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On the subject of the opinion polls I saw a great blog last night - I think it was on UK poll report - where a polling expert questioned the weighting being applied to one of the polls that regularly gives a more positive Yes position. The company had published their raw data which showed that they use figures for past voting that aren't accurate for the 2010 General Election.

It's an interesting insight into how the polls work and it shows that all the companies are weighting their polls making the assumption that those who voted SNP in 2011 want independence.

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As you suggested earlier, the current question is a simple YES/NO, so it is about radical change versus the status quo. That's quite straightforward, though little else is.

FWIW, I have also previously noted where I deviate from the current independence proposals. I am in favour of a Scottish republic, with no membership of NATO, and remain ambivalent about EU membership. As things stand, however, such ideals will never be achieved under current constitutional arrangements, so change is needed, and this is a step in the right direction.

Whether every bookie and pollster is wrong is a question that will only be answered in the fullness of time. It is a matter of how accurate or otherwise their predications and extrapolations turn out to be that I am interested in, however. As I say, BT is in the box seat, irrespective of their woeful campaigning and negative diatribes. It would be utterly astonishing if they weren't. I reckon it will be closer than some imagine, for all that.

Well I'm not voting no for the status quo, and I don't know anyone who is. More power for Holyrood is inevitable in my opinion, and we will have it as a strong nation inside the UK.

I think BT is in the box seat despite the campaign, not because of it. Yes has the better politicians, has been able to set the question and has spent far more money campaigning.

Better Together has dull politicians, had been pretty skint till Miss Rowling stepped in and has been fighting against the negative connotations of the question set by The SNP. Had the referendum question been ' Should Scotland remain as part of the UK? ' the whole campaign dynamic would have been different. Yes is an inherently positive word, no is an inherently negative one.

However, despite all the advantages yes have had, they've not been able to poll 50% anywhere. It's remarkable really.

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Here's a wee exercise for folk.

Why not ask 10 people you know how they are going to vote and post your percentages here.

Don't ask them leading questions or try to influence them.

Just simply ask 10 folk and let's see whether we get the same results as pollsters are getting.

Did it.

9 no, 1 yes.

What was the point in that exactly?

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Did it.

9 no, 1 yes.

What was the point in that exactly?

You are asking me what is the point in asking people how they plan to vote on a thread where you are quoting the results of people being asked how they are going to vote?

Are you taking the piss?

To be honest I'm surprised you have enough time to respond on here given the slaughtering you are taking over on P&B for precisely this sort of inexplicable nonsense.

Have you worked out the difference between mathematical probability and bookies odds yet or are you still having trouble?

Edited by oaksoft
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You are asking me what is the point in asking people how they plan to vote on a thread where you are quoting the results of people being asked how they are going to vote?

Are you taking the piss?

To be honest I'm surprised you have enough time to respond on here given the slaughtering you are taking over on P&B for precisely this sort of inexplicable nonsense.

Have you worked out the difference between mathematical probability and bookies odds yet or are you still having trouble?

Do you know the difference between a weighted poll and a non weighted one? About 90% of the people I know are voting no, but I don't for a second believe that will be the actual result.

You've said in this thread before you think yes is going to lose, have you changed your mind?

As for getting a slaughtering on PNB, have a look at the thread you just started there. Even yes voters are laughing at you, even yes voters! :lol:

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