Magic Monkey Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 OK, I got to thinking about what we actually need now to avoid relegation, on the balance of probability. I won't lie, it's not looking good. Sadly, we only really have last year's league table to use as a precedent in terms of target numbers. It was the first season where there were no truly dead rubber games in the bottom six, so you could rely on everyone trying right up to the end of the season. So, with that in mind, and ignoring Hearts' points deduction, 38 points was enough to avoid the play-off on goal difference. This tallies with the general rule of thumb that one point per game over the course of the season is usually enough to stay up in any league, give or take. Our main rivals for 10th place, Motherwell, need 21 points from the same number of games, which is an eminently easier task: 6 wins and three draws from 17 games. It is therefore fair to suppose that 38 points will be the minimum target. The state of play: We are on 11 points from 21 games, a nowhere-near-good-enough ratio of 0.52 points per game. We have 17 games left to play, from which, based on last season, we need 27 points, or 1.58 points per game This can be divided by the following, all calculated as a bare minimum and aiming to hit 38 points precisely: 9 wins, 0 draws, 8 defeats. 8 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats. 7 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats. 6 wins, 9 draws, 2 defeats. Beyond the above, in either direction, I'd say we're moving into the realms of impossibility. In fairness, I think we already are. It's interesting (or it was to me, anyway) to see it laid out. I can't honestly see us turning things around to the extent that we are winning 7 or 8 games between now and the end of the season. I would suggest that our best bet might be to aim to get the team in shape, fit, firing and confident, in 11th place, to beat The Sevco over two legs in the P/O final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougJamie Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Think you can forget last season. We don't need 27 points. Well are shit, County are crap. As are we. Whoever wins head to heads will stay up. So far that's not looking good either, so whilst I think your a bit statto, your point is valid. Stranrear here we come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Monkey Posted January 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Think you can forget last season. We don't need 27 points. Well are shit, County are crap. As are we. Whoever wins head to heads will stay up. So far that's not looking good either, so whilst I think your a bit statto, your point is valid. Stranrear here we come I bet you love it up the Stranrear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isle Of Bute Saint Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 There is every chance to still save the season of course its not going to be easy but it never is with St Mirren. We wont know how this team is going to look until the new owners step in and tell us the plan for survival. Until then nothing will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougJamie Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 That was a deliberate spelling error, and actually never tried it, although did feel under TC I was certainly getting pumped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TediousTom Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Think you can forget last season. We don't need 27 points. Well are shit, County are crap. As are we. Whoever wins head to heads will stay up. So far that's not looking good either, so whilst I think your a bit statto, your point is valid. Stranrear here we come You forget one crucial fact my forum chum, one crucial fact indeed. WIth us all being "shit" then it is safe to assume that the teams fighting for survival will be up against fellow "shit" teams and as such a bountiful run is not beyond the realms of possability for Ross County, Motherwell or even our good selves or all three. We are up against it......up against it indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougJamie Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 You forget one crucial fact my forum chum, one crucial fact indeed. WIth us all being "shit" then it is safe to assume that the teams fighting for survival will be up against fellow "shit" teams and as such a bountiful run is not beyond the realms of possability for Ross County, Motherwell or even our good selves or all three. We are up against it......up against it indeed. TT. Now normally as certainly as we have had plenty of practice over last 8 seasons I would be sitting here quite smug, I mean Saints always somehow with 2/ 3 games to go stay up. However that was with a striker, a manager, a hell of a lot more than 11 points, several wins at home, and a Centre Half. As all these vital ingredients are missing, I therefore have reached the conclusion that unless we unearth another Portuguese starlet we are in the merd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linwood buddie Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 (edited) I'm not going to put it into numbers but into words and they go like "Up shit creek without the wooden thing". Edited January 12, 2015 by linwood buddie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shull Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Win next 3 games and the panic is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Monkey Posted January 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Win next 3 games and the panic is over. Aye, it's as easy as that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ulysses Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 We're basically in a situation where we need to pick up a good few wins and hope Ross County and Motherwell continue to drop points. If both of them have a real spike in form, and we carry on as we are, we're doomed. Saturday's game is massive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 We're basically in a situation where we need to pick up a good few wins and hope Ross County and Motherwell continue to drop points. If both of them have a real spike in form, and we carry on as we are, we're doomed. Saturday's game is massive. Stating the obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintargyll Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Have a wee look at the fixtures up to and including the 14th of Feb We have a good chance to gain 10th and also drag PTFC into the dog fight "its possible" oh and BTW....WE ARE NOT RELEGATED YET......MAN UP AND SUPPORT OUR TEAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FS Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 oh and BTW....WE ARE NOT RELEGATED YET......MAN UP AND PLAY FOR YOUR TEAM Fixed that for you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kendo Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 The statement below outlines the trouble we're in. It's that bad he's better than what we presently have after a fit Thommo. St Mirren caretaker manager Gary Teale is targeting a deal for Ross County striker Yoann Arquin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linwood buddie Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Have a wee look at the fixtures up to and including the 14th of Feb We have a good chance to gain 10th and also drag PTFC into the dog fight "its possible" oh and BTW....WE ARE NOT RELEGATED YET......PRAY FOR OUR TEAM Fixed that for you... I fixed it for you...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbar_bud Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 (edited) Its hard to really judge how many points we can get until the end of the window and some new faces have been brought in. As it stands IMO we will finish bottom 2 witht he squad we have, but if GT (or A.N. Other) can somehow find a decent centre half and a striker to get something in the area of a goal every 2 games then we certainly have a chance of catching motherwell and pulling away from county. I also think less than 38 points will do it. One of us, Motherwell or Ross county will go on a bit of a run at some point, hopefully we can bring in the right players and it will be us. Edited January 12, 2015 by foxbar_bud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougJamie Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 It could be worse......................................................... Thanks Sevco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TsuMirren Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 The statement below outlines the trouble we're in. It's that bad he's better than what we presently have after a fit Thommo. St Mirren caretaker manager Gary Teale is targeting a deal for Ross County striker Yoann Arquin. The worry, of course, is that like Caldwell, Ball and Marwood we'll be judging him by how good he looks up against Marc McAusland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stu Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Here's a stat for you. This season Dumfries YMCA were admitted to the South of Scotland League (level below the Lowland League) after the local amateur league folded. They have been woeful - I genuinely can't remember a team with a worse record since I started covering the competition six or seven years ago. They are regularly hammered by just about everyone else in the league, including the teams that are usually on the receiving ends of such hammering. They have lost every single game. And why is this relevant? Because despite being that bad, even they have managed more league goals than us - and in less games! Admittedly they have conceded almost 100 more goals but that's not the point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintnextlifetime Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 (edited) There is every chance to still save the season of course its not going to be easy but it never is with St Mirren. We wont know how this team is going to look until the new owners step in and tell us the plan for survival. Until then nothing will happen. We certainly can't afford to take the drop but it now looks like a distinct possibility . . It means that , this season we might have to sing to ourselves "Say hello to Mor*on . ." ETA - beating The Sevco twice in the P/O might be quite pleasant tho' . . Edited January 12, 2015 by saintnextlifetime Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibbles old paperboy Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I think County, Motherwell and ourselves have been so bad during the first half of the season that it is possible we won't need as many as 38 points to reach 10th, but it would be better to reach 38 points and find we only needed 33 points than get 33 points and find 38 was the magic number! Although Motherwell got a bounce when their new manager came in, they've taken a few beatings as well but have still got 2 back to back wins since he came in while we have 3 points from 5 games under Teale, even though you could argue we have been a lot steadier and played better. With 7 games in January and over 20 points on offer, it is really frustrating to be midway through the month almost with no signings, 5 players out the squad, no news on the manager's position, and it now also seems like a real mess of conflicting stories about the possible sale of the club and how that is being handled at our end. This was the month when we should have been aiming to record a few clean sheets, signing some defenders, signing some forwards and trying to get 2,3 or 4 wins on the board. The main thing to take from the OP is that it is urgent to begin winning games now. For all the improvements made under Teale we have continued on a similar trajectory points-wise as under Tommy Craig - with similar failings eg it is game over if we go behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northstbuddie Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 We are doomed based on the indications from GT that we are currently looking at 2 or 3 signings up front and in midfield. No mention of shoring up the only defence in all the senior leagues in the UK without a clean sheet to its name after 5 months into the season. However I'll give Gary the benefit of the doubt and maybe he just forgot to mention a CB was also a priority in the transfer window. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Calder Saint Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I understand that Gary has a centre back prev with Plymouth on trial at present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibbles old paperboy Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Also if Thompson is out for another 3 weeks minimum, we'll get another 13 league games out of him maximum and a few of those will be him regaining match fitness after being rushed straight back in to the starting XI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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