Jump to content

How Much Trouble We Are In: Some Numbers.


Recommended Posts

I understand that Gary has a centre back prev with Plymouth on trial at present.

Any full backs on trial? Its an open secret that Naismith and Kelly push forward and leave acres of space behind them for opponents to exploit either for getting crosses into our box unchallenged or being left unmarked in the box to shoot on goal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


We are doomed based on the indications from GT that we are currently looking at 2 or 3 signings up front and in midfield.

No mention of shoring up the only defence in all the senior leagues in the UK without a clean sheet to its name after 5 months into the season. However I'll give Gary the benefit of the doubt and maybe he just forgot to mention a CB was also a priority in the transfer window.

Sorry Buddie , what is a CB. .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand that Gary has a centre back prev with Plymouth on trial at present.

That would be Maxime Blanchard who played in the bounce game and has been without a club since May. Apparently he was told to mark Marc McAusland, who he was playing alongside, and thought everyone was winding him up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I keep expecting Motherwell to get a winning run going and leaving us and County to fight to the death ( or flop over the finish line ) but they seem to be just as bad. The new manager bounce hasn't came for them either after his first couple of wins. they seem to be going backwards. Still maintain Sutton can score enough to keep them out of the bottom 2.

We are only roughly half way through and there is loads of football still to be played but we are not a consistent enough team to get a 4-5 game winning streak going. Have not been for years.

I think the fans could do a bit more to get behind the players but we are ( rightly ) perplexed with what has been going on, on and off the field. Would be a shame if we, as fans, were just to roll over and accept relegation. We certainly didn't do that in 00/01.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That would be Maxime Blanchard who played in the bounce game and has been without a club since May. Apparently he was told to mark Marc McAusland, who he was playing alongside, and thought everyone was winding him up.

If we are looking at Maxime Blanchard with a view to signing him, this might not be a bad signing based on his website:- www.maximeblanchard.com

Have a look at his video section and make up your own mind - he certainly looks good enough to bolster our defence in its present state!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bunch of pessimistic bastards - no I didn't mean to put realistic.

10th with a game to spare. Even if we finish 11th we would not be playing sevco, it would be hibs (or maybe even QOS).

Sevco will be the Playoff opponents do you honestly think our football authorities will leave anything to chance.

To avoid being there it would be nice in these crucial head to heads with our rivals that any goals we score could be counted.

We'd be just 3 behind 'Well now if that old fashioned concept had been adhered to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 year later...

Sorry to bump my 'we are doomed' thread from a couple of years ago, but I've felt compelled to look at the numbers again. This is a repost from P&B, but I thought it was worth sharing.

 

Quote

 

Thought I'd take a look at some numbers to work out exactly how f**ked we are. Those of a sensitive disposition, or the easily bored, might want to look away now.

 

I've taken data from the past 10 years, and the average 9th-placed team finishes with 35.7 points; the average 8th-placed finishes with 38.5. Both of those have been skewed by the season with Hearts, Hibs and the plucky new team, so removing those abnormally low totals (8th and 9th both had 27 points) we are left with 39.7 and 36.6.

Let's call those 40 and 37 points 'needed' to finish 8th and 9th respectively.

We currently have four points from 10 games. To nick 8th and avoid a playoff, therefore, we need 36 points from our remaining 26 games. We need to convert our current rate of 0.4ppg to 1.3ppg.

12 wins from 26 games, then. Not going to happen. 

Let's say we get eight draws (not unreasonable based on current form): that means we'd need nine additional wins to make reasonably sure.

 

Normally, you'd say this isn't that daunting a prospect, but you'd assume we're going to lose tomorrow, so we'll need 36 from 25 games...

Of course, we don't necessarily need to match previous 8th-placed scores, we only need to beat 9th (ie one fewer win required over the whole season). On three occasions in the past 10 years, 9th has equaled or beaten 40 points (40, 42 and 40). So we can't take anything for granted.

Probably safe to start getting worried now. We really need at least four wins on the board by Christmas.

 

 

tl;dr - we're in trouble, but not as much trouble as we were in January 2015. Then, we needed 1.5ppg; now we need 1.3ppg. Then, we needed at least eight wins and some draws. This time, the same - but have much longer to achieve that in, theoretically, an easier league.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the squad we have and the performances we are producing, we are for the drop. Not going to start ripping into JR or the new regime, but I cannot see us being able to produce performances that will keep us in on safety. I'll still attend when I can though, and hope, pray, we don't drop again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/1/2016 at 9:14 AM, Magic Monkey said:

Sorry to bump my 'we are doomed' thread from a couple of years ago, but I've felt compelled to look at the numbers again. This is a repost from P&B, but I thought it was worth sharing.

Had a look at the 8 and 9 place totals over the last few years and yes - they are worrying. 

A couple of years back 27 was enough for 8th though.

Also if we beat Dunfermline and Dumbarton this month and match their other results we will be level on points with the latter and only one behind the former.

Then it is more or less a three way shoot out - so I'm still hopeful.

BTW - when 'researching' this I came across this...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999–2000_Scottish_First_Division

Ah the memories...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, southsidebud said:

Had a look at the 8 and 9 place totals over the last few years and yes - they are worrying. 

A couple of years back 27 was enough for 8th though.

Also if we beat Dunfermline and Dumbarton this month and match their other results we will be level on points with the latter and only one behind the former.

Then it is more or less a three way shoot out - so I'm still hopeful.

BTW - when 'researching' this I came across this...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999–2000_Scottish_First_Division

Ah the memories...

If we beat Dumbarton and Dunfermline we'll be ahead of both, unless either win their other game - played when we are playing the other.

 

The key thing in all of these calculations and analysis is that we need to start winning. Do that, and the arithmetic will become far easier to address...

 

;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Soctty said:

If we beat Dumbarton and Dunfermline we'll be ahead of both, unless either win their other game - played when we are playing the other.

 

The key thing in all of these calculations and analysis is that we need to start winning. Do that, and the arithmetic will become far easier to address...

 

;)

So will some folks sanity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

These kinda exercises are always interesting (for nutters like me anyway :blink:) but every season is  different.

2014/15 when 8th/9th placed teams both finishing on 27 points and Cowdenbeath finishing 10th just 2 behind om 25, plus the season also had Hearts with what I'm fairly sure was a record total of 91 points plus Hibs and Rangers finishing with large points totals for second and third places respectively. Where the season may have relevance is that it was a three way dog fight at the bottom.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, that's why I removed the '27 points' season from the averages in my calculations. That year was a huge anomaly because there were two big teams, plus Sevco, in the league.

I know looking at the numbers this way is a bit statto-ish, but we need some clear targets. Just hoping to fix things in January will leave us cutting it very fine indeed.

Four wins by Christmas will change the whole outlook of our season.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Soctty said:

The key thing in all of these calculations and analysis is that we need to start winning. Do that, and the arithmetic will become far easier to address...

20 hours ago, pod said:

So will some folks sanity.

Even easier if their address is in Dykebar

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Magic Monkey said:

Yes, that's why I removed the '27 points' season from the averages in my calculations. That year was a huge anomaly because there were two big teams, plus Sevco, in the league.

I know looking at the numbers this way is a bit statto-ish, but we need some clear targets. Just hoping to fix things in January will leave us cutting it very fine indeed.

Four wins by Christmas will change the whole outlook of our season.

 

All I want for Christmas is points. Many of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...