Jump to content

shull

Thread To Discuss An Independent Scotland.

Recommended Posts

Regardless of whether or not this “generation” thing was said (of which there’s no mention of it in the Smith Commission), the “material change” had happened with Brexit.

If it was 2014 and No had just won, and Westminster proceeded to close down Holyrood, cut our MP allocation from 59 to 14, and decided to execute 30% of Scots, would you sit there and say “ah well it was a once in a generation vote, we’ll have to wait before voting again”, or would you consider that a change too big to be ignored?

Equally, if Westminster had actually stuck to the vows made, had respected our Remain vote and agreed to allow Scotland some sort of EU access, and treated Scotland as an equal nation instead of dictating what would happen, then calls for Indyref2 would be non-existent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Cornwall_Saint said:

Regardless of whether or not this “generation” thing was said (of which there’s no mention of it in the Smith Commission), the “material change” had happened with Brexit.

If it was 2014 and No had just won, and Westminster proceeded to close down Holyrood, cut our MP allocation from 59 to 14, and decided to execute 30% of Scots, would you sit there and say “ah well it was a once in a generation vote, we’ll have to wait before voting again”, or would you consider that a change too big to be ignored?

Equally, if Westminster had actually stuck to the vows made, had respected our Remain vote and agreed to allow Scotland some sort of EU access, and treated Scotland as an equal nation instead of dictating what would happen, then calls for Indyref2 would be non-existent.

Normally I quite enjoy reading your opinions but I have to ask if you've been drinking before posting this one. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Regardless of whether or not this “generation” thing was said (of which there’s no mention of it in the Smith Commission), the “material change” had happened with Brexit.
If it was 2014 and No had just won, and Westminster proceeded to close down Holyrood, cut our MP allocation from 59 to 14, and decided to execute 30% of Scots, would you sit there and say “ah well it was a once in a generation vote, we’ll have to wait before voting again”, or would you consider that a change too big to be ignored?
Equally, if Westminster had actually stuck to the vows made, had respected our Remain vote and agreed to allow Scotland some sort of EU access, and treated Scotland as an equal nation instead of dictating what would happen, then calls for Indyref2 would be non-existent.
No it wouldn't.

The folks passionately supporting Indyref2 would just find another way of justifying it IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the "Generation Thing" - during the infamous Marr interview Alex Salmond described the time from the first devolution referendum in 79 to the second one in '97 as being a good definition.

The relevant question for reducing this and holding a second referendum sooner is whether issues like not implementing "The Vow" & Brexit & Westminster's subsequent power grab are significant and that seems to be defined by whether you're for or agin....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Normally I quite enjoy reading your opinions but I have to ask if you've been drinking before posting this one. :lol:

It’s hypothetical as I’m sure you knew already 😂 I was using an extreme example to point out that the “ah well, once in a generation” thing wouldn’t stick if such extremities were taking place. 

3 hours ago, BuddieinEK said:

No it wouldn't.

The folks passionately supporting Indyref2 would just find another way of justifying it IMO.

I have to disagree with you bud. If Westminster actually began to treat Scotland as an equal and not a nuisance who should sit down and do what it’s told, then the appetite for Indy would be much smaller and some Yessers would not be too bothered about the cause. 

There might be 10-20% diehards who would do as you say above, likewise that would be 10-20% on the other side who would vote no even if offered £1m each. The key would be that the overall movement wouldn’t have the ground needed.

Westminster have had five years to show us why we are better in the UK than out. In those five years we’ve seen nothing positive, but a whole load of negatives. If the respect Scotland deserves had actually been given, then Boris wouldn’t need to be refusing us Indyref2, nor would he need to even be worried about the Yes campaign winning. The lack of respect since 2014 is the exact reason Yessers are calling for Indyref2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have to disagree with you bud. If Westminster actually began to treat Scotland as an equal and not a nuisance who should sit down and do what it’s told, then the appetite for Indy would be much smaller and some Yessers would not be too bothered about the cause. 

There might be 10-20% diehards who would do as you say above, likewise that would be 10-20% on the other side who would vote no even if offered £1m each. The key would be that the overall movement wouldn’t have the ground needed.
Westminster have had five years to show us why we are better in the UK than out. In those five years we’ve seen nothing positive, but a whole load of negatives. If the respect Scotland deserves had actually been given, then Boris wouldn’t need to be refusing us Indyref2, nor would he need to even be worried about the Yes campaign winning. The lack of respect since 2014 is the exact reason Yessers are calling for Indyref2.
A lot of what you say makes total sense and is what I too believe.

I was chatting to a local Labour MP candidate for ages before the last election.

She asked my thoughts (unusual for any politician but she is refreshingly open and transparent).

I told her I feared Labour was fighting the wrong battle by seeing defeating the Tories as a measure of success.

To regain credibility and control, they had to win votes from the SNP in Scotland and from a number of parties in England and Wales.

Throughout the UK, people are rebelling at the Londoncentric politics of Westminster.

Not just in Scotland... But all over the UK.

That is a contributing factor in people in the North East of England voting Tory knowing their grandparents will be turning in their grave.

Labour HAS to come out and apologize. Say they got it wrong and now see that the current political system is good for nothing but division and a few rich people.

It needs to convince people that they are determined to return control of local affairs to local regions by creating more local assemblies (expensive buildings not needed) and devolving power to those assemblies.

The power of the collective supporting the needs of local areas and individuals.

That way, local councils can respond to local needs.

A federal system throughout the UK is the only way of saving it... Buy politicians are too blind or too scared to advocate as much.

Had that happened then I believe a lot of the disillusioned voters who voted SNP would have reconsidered.

Problem now is, everything that is happening is playing right into the hands of the separatists, and it is becoming increasingly more difficult to counter their demands for another referendum.

I believe this is totally the wrong time for one... but my gut feeling is that we are heading towards one regardless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It is indeed interesting, but does that not presuppose that the whole of Scotland is unified in the desire for independence?

The UK as it is does not serve the majority... He's right.

If we all put the same amount of effort into campaigning to fix it and did so in unity, maybe... just maybe, there could be a better outcome for a much larger number of people?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:

What's funny about them not mentioning that it wasn't a once in a lifetime vote?  Do you also think it's funny that they never mentioned that it was a once in a lifetime vote?

No! Yes, or somewhere in between. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites



It is indeed interesting, but does that not presuppose that the whole of Scotland is unified in the desire for independence?

The UK as it is does not serve the majority... He's right.

If we all put the same amount of effort into campaigning to fix it and did so in unity, maybe... just maybe, there could be a better outcome for a much larger number of people?


We got the call for unity from Cameron - "Lead us, don't leave us" - and the first thing he did, the very next day, was introduce EVEL. We got promised a more federal system. Hasn't (and won't) happen. We got told the only way to stay in the EU was to stay in the UK. That went well.

My view, and it's one I've held for a long, long time, is that an indy Scotland, a successful, left of centre indy Scotland, would be the wake up call the remainder of the UK needs.

I think you know the definition of stupidity, we've been trying to have a particular style of government in Scotland my entire adult lifetime, we're still waiting. It's time for a radical change to prove we're not stupid and, imo, independence is the radical change we need.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BuddieinEK said:

It is indeed interesting, but does that not presuppose that the whole of Scotland is unified in the desire for independence?

The UK as it is does not serve the majority... He's right.

If we all put the same amount of effort into campaigning to fix it and did so in unity, maybe... just maybe, there could be a better outcome for a much larger number of people?

Yes and that's the entire problem for those advocating independence. There isn't the support for it yet. Let alone nonsense about simply declaring independence.

If Yes was polling at over 70% then I'd say that simply declaring independence was the way to go bu we are probably an actual generation or more away from that sort of support.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The SNP need to stop wittering on about Indyref2 having to happen right now, drop the grievance politics and demonstrate that they have listened to and accepted the 2014 result before voters start switching off.
They then need to lay out the case for Indyref2 towards the end of this decade at least to show they've at least made an attempt at waiting a generation. They need to let Brexit bed in and work towards building the polls in their favour whilst continuing to return solid election wins.
The power to call Indyref2 should have been handed over already but it's been mixed up with actually using that power immediately and also the very real prospect of neverendums.
Grievance politics thst saw them increase their seats at WM.
Aye right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, delpierro said:

Grievance politics thst saw them increase their seats at WM.
Aye right.

I could have sworn this was a thread about Scotland gaining independence and what the SNP need to do to make that happen.

How are the SNP getting on there in the face of all the material changes since 2014?

Last I looked, polls hadn't significantly shifted in 6 years.

 

Edited by oaksoft

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I could have sworn this was a thread about Scotland gaining independence and what the SNP need to do to make that happen.

How are the SNP getting on there in the face of all the material changes since 2014?

Last I looked, polls hadn't significantly shifted in 6 years.

 

The decade leading up to 2014 referendum averaged 28.2% support for an independent Scotland. In 2019 standardised question polls, most of which excluding 16 & 17 year old's (which are believed to more favour independence) averaged 44.6% (not excluding undecided which is about 8%).   

There has been a clear increase in support for independence in recent times. More details being made available in a referendum campaign and the undecided factor, has a very real chance of pushing this over 50% if the increase in 2014 is anything to go by. I find it strange anyone can argue against the democratic mandate for another vote.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, BuddieinEK said:

No it wouldn't.

The folks passionately supporting Indyref2 would just find another way of justifying it IMO.

Very true but they wouldn't have a valid case for the demand. It would have been much less vocally supported.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A lot of what you say makes total sense and is what I too believe.

I was chatting to a local Labour MP candidate for ages before the last election.

She asked my thoughts (unusual for any politician but she is refreshingly open and transparent).

I told her I feared Labour was fighting the wrong battle by seeing defeating the Tories as a measure of success.

To regain credibility and control, they had to win votes from the SNP in Scotland and from a number of parties in England and Wales.

Throughout the UK, people are rebelling at the Londoncentric politics of Westminster.

Not just in Scotland... But all over the UK.

That is a contributing factor in people in the North East of England voting Tory knowing their grandparents will be turning in their grave.

Labour HAS to come out and apologize. Say they got it wrong and now see that the current political system is good for nothing but division and a few rich people.

It needs to convince people that they are determined to return control of local affairs to local regions by creating more local assemblies (expensive buildings not needed) and devolving power to those assemblies.

The power of the collective supporting the needs of local areas and individuals.

That way, local councils can respond to local needs.

A federal system throughout the UK is the only way of saving it... Buy politicians are too blind or too scared to advocate as much.

Had that happened then I believe a lot of the disillusioned voters who voted SNP would have reconsidered.

Problem now is, everything that is happening is playing right into the hands of the separatists, and it is becoming increasingly more difficult to counter their demands for another referendum.

I believe this is totally the wrong time for one... but my gut feeling is that we are heading towards one regardless.
"Separatists "

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, bazil85 said:

The decade leading up to 2014 referendum averaged 28.2% support for an independent Scotland. In 2019 standardised question polls, most of which excluding 16 & 17 year old's (which are believed to more favour independence) averaged 44.6% (not excluding undecided which is about 8%).   

There has been a clear increase in support for independence in recent times. More details being made available in a referendum campaign and the undecided factor, has a very real chance of pushing this over 50% if the increase in 2014 is anything to go by. I find it strange anyone can argue against the democratic mandate for another vote.  

I am not arguing against Scotland being handed that power. My problem is one of the timing of any vote itself.

The decade leading to 2014 is irrelevant. It's whether the polls have moved significantly since the referendum.

They haven't and IMO that is what the SNP need to focus their efforts on. Grievance has got them to about 45 to 48% but something else is now needed to make the significant shift they require.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I am not arguing against Scotland being handed that power. My problem is one of the timing of any vote itself.

The decade leading to 2014 is irrelevant. It's whether the polls have moved significantly since the referendum.

They haven't and IMO that is what the SNP need to focus their efforts on. Grievance has got them to about 45 to 48% but something else is now needed to make the significant shift they require.

I get that, I can see issues with the timing with all the uncertainty and turmoil currently. For me it's just not a good enough reason for SNP to abandon a manifesto promise.  

The decade before was a point of comparison. As are any poll's really. A poll isn't a be all and end all but I feel they're more than a strong enough indicator that a majority in Scotland may vote for independence given the choice. If we combine that with the SNP manifesto promise, the EU voting results in Scotland and the very clear pitfalls of the no campaign, I don't think "timing" is strong enough to overturn all of that. If SNP suddenly stopped pushing for a second vote they would be contradicting a stance that many people voted for them on just over a month ago.

As for significant shift, 45-48% I'm not sure how significant that shift is to get a majority for independence. I guess only a vote which they promised they'd fight for will tell us. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

I am not arguing against Scotland being handed that power. My problem is one of the timing of any vote itself.

The decade leading to 2014 is irrelevant. It's whether the polls have moved significantly since the referendum.

They haven't and IMO that is what the SNP need to focus their efforts on. Grievance has got them to about 45 to 48% but something else is now needed to make the significant shift they require.

A year of BoJo and his cronies should do the trick!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BuddieinEK said:

That took longer than I expected!
emoji311.png

What term would you prefer me to use for people who want to separate Scotland from the rest of the UK?
emoji850.png

It's the connotations that go along with the word but I feel you knew that given the "that took longer than I expected" comment. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...