The Politics Thread

[pozbaird]

12 minutes ago, Isle Of Bute Saint said:

Completely agree with you Neil. There is also the question how can over come a 15billion black hole. Only raising taxes to a very high level could cover that. Oil can bounce back but will never reach the highs of $100 a Barrow these days have gone for good.

Good news for Homebase, Dobbies and B&Q if it does hit $100 though. Gonnae' sell shitloads.

[stlucifer]

3 minutes ago, pozbaird said:

Good news for Homebase, Dobbies and B&Q if it does hit $100 though. Gonnae' sell shitloads.

Pedant!

[Wilbur]

I struggle to understand how the Scottish voting figures from the EU referendum could offer Nicola Sturgeon any encouragement for a "YES" result in a future independence referendum.

The 62:38 split within Scotland who voted in favour of Remain tells me that 38% of the Scottish electorate do not wish to be in the EU. For Nicola Sturgeon to argue the case for a future Scottish independence referendum based on creating an independent Scotland within the EU she will automatically start that campaign with that 38% of the electorate against her. Therefore she will need to achieve 51% support for Scottish independence from the 62% that wanted to 'Remain'. I would estimate that requirement at pretty much 5 out of 6 (approx 82%) of 'Remains' also being pro-independence. Unlikely IMO.

[Wilbur]

22 minutes ago, pozbaird said:

Good news for Homebase, Dobbies and B&Q if it does hit $100 though. Gonnae' sell shitloads.

or maybe shedloads.

[stlucifer]

1 minute ago, Wilbur said:

I struggle to understand how the Scottish voting figures from the EU referendum could offer Nicola Sturgeon any encouragement for a "YES" result in a future independence referendum.

The 62:38 split within Scotland who voted in favour of Remain tells me that 38% of the Scottish electorate do not wish to be in the EU. For Nicola Sturgeon to argue the case for a future Scottish independence referendum based on creating an independent Scotland within the EU she will automatically start that campaign with that 38% of the electorate against her. Therefore she will need to achieve 51% support for Scottish independence from the 62% that wanted to 'Remain'. I would estimate that requirement at pretty much 5 out of 6 (approx 82%) of 'Remains' also being pro-independence. Unlikely IMO.

Firstly. Sturgeon is not stupid. An immediate referendum would be a last resort unless she was as certain as she could be of winning it.  She is attempting to reverse engineer the Greenland precedent. IF this is not possible she will rely on the realization of the lies of the leave campaign and the revelations of the turmoil in the divorce to convince doubters that the lesser of the undecided two evils is EU Instead of UK. It may just work.

[saintnextlifetime]

32 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

I've had this debate before -

There are 4 countries in the UK England, the largest, makes up 83% of the population. 

There are 28 countries in the EU Germany, the largest, makes up less than 16%.

Although Scotland makes up even less of the total population of the EU, there is not the same degree of dominance by the largest country as in the UK. We would have the opportunity to form alliances with other small countries and perhaps hold the balance of power at times.

My forebears also fought in the two World Wars but the world (sic) has moved on there are new battles to fight (hopefully not in the military sense) and if the young ones top priority is the price of mobile phone contracts then so it.

As for the Kinnocks there'll always be grubbers but "stop the world I want to get off" is not an option.

What else can I say but reiterate my opinion: Independence within the EU - not perfect, but the best alternative.

 

.

Bottom line , Colin , you can always get rid of the Blair's and Cameron's of this world but the unelected individuals that run Europe cannot be voted out . Now that stinks . There are 10,000 eurocrat's earning more than the British Prime Minister .

Population sizes are more or less meaningless in Europe because these people HAVE NO VOICE , they can influence the square root of he-haw . Germany controls the ship . Euro policy is made behind closed doors and is subject to who is best a lobbying for their angle/business. Don't get me wrong , I know some of that goes on here but at least we know we can vote the f**kers out here. .

But why would anyone want to unite with Germany in favour of independence ???

[Stuart Dickson]

5 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

Firstly. Sturgeon is not stupid. An immediate referendum would be a last resort unless she was as certain as she could be of winning it.  She is attempting to reverse engineer the Greenland precedent. IF this is not possible she will rely on the realization of the lies of the leave campaign and the revelations of the turmoil in the divorce to convince doubters that the lesser of the undecided two evils is EU Instead of UK. It may just work.

Well if its the second option she is clearly stupid. Trying to convince people who will already have seen the "turmoil" that one exit has caused that more "turmoil" from another exit is a good idea just at a time where everything has settled down is stupidity of the highest order. Wilbur is right, a move to an independent referendum is just plain stupid unless Sturgeon believes that everyone of the remain voters and angry about the exit and believe that this has been imposed upon us against our will. I'm a No voter and I voted remain. I'd still vote No to Scottish Independence every single day of the week I'd I'd venture that there's a huge number like me. 'Course you have people like IoBS who voted Yes to Independence in Europe, then voted to leave Europe on the strength of the effect some non EU immigrants had on his community who'd probably vote for Independence in Europe again without ever considering the irony in what he's doing - but I think IoBS is a special kind of stupid....:rolleyes: 

[Bud the Baker]

6 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

Bottom line , Colin , you can always get rid of the Blair's and Cameron's of this world but the unelected individuals that run Europe cannot be voted out . Now that stinks . There are 10,000 eurocrat's earning more than the British Prime Minister .

Population sizes are more or less meaningless in Europe because these people HAVE NO VOICE , they can influence the square root of he-haw . Germany controls the ship . Euro policy is made behind closed doors and is subject to who is best a lobbying for their angle/business. Don't get me wrong , I know some of that goes on here but at least we know we can vote the f**kers out here. .

But why would anyone want to unite with Germany in favour of independence ???

A lot of what you say is correct, the EU does need to be more accountable but we've had over 40 years to do something about it and a fair degree of the blame has to apportioned to an electorate which has never even reached a 40% turnout in eight elections. However bad it is it is better than the current Tory party which you can only lurching further to the right in the immediate future,

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, saintnextlifetime said:

My forebears fought a war so as to avoid exactly what Europe is all about .

I am pretty sure your forebears didnt fight a war to prevent laws against curly bananas.

[E=Mc2]

58 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I struggle to understand how the Scottish voting figures from the EU referendum could offer Nicola Sturgeon any encouragement for a "YES" result in a future independence referendum.

The 62:38 split within Scotland who voted in favour of Remain tells me that 38% of the Scottish electorate do not wish to be in the EU. For Nicola Sturgeon to argue the case for a future Scottish independence referendum based on creating an independent Scotland within the EU she will automatically start that campaign with that 38% of the electorate against her. Therefore she will need to achieve 51% support for Scottish independence from the 62% that wanted to 'Remain'. I would estimate that requirement at pretty much 5 out of 6 (approx 82%) of 'Remains' also being pro-independence. Unlikely IMO.

Only if the turnout was the same, and it was not.

[jimmy boo]

Completely agree with you Neil. There is also the question how can over come a 15billion black hole. Only raising taxes to a very high level could cover that. Oil can bounce back but will never reach the highs of $100 a Barrow these days have gone for good.

Exactly.....where will Lego heid and Salmond find the cash now that the oil value they so love has gone through the floor ? Do they think Joe public will be happy to pay double tax to fulfil their warped dream?

[Isle Of Bute Saint]

Well if its the second option she is clearly stupid. Trying to convince people who will already have seen the "turmoil" that one exit has caused that more "turmoil" from another exit is a good idea just at a time where everything has settled down is stupidity of the highest order. Wilbur is right, a move to an independent referendum is just plain stupid unless Sturgeon believes that everyone of the remain voters and angry about the exit and believe that this has been imposed upon us against our will. I'm a No voter and I voted remain. I'd still vote No to Scottish Independence every single day of the week I'd I'd venture that there's a huge number like me. 'Course you have people like IoBS who voted Yes to Independence in Europe, then voted to leave Europe on the strength of the effect some non EU immigrants had on his community who'd probably vote for Independence in Europe again without ever considering the irony in what he's doing - but I think IoBS is a special kind of stupid.... 

Mate there plenty forum users who know who the stupid and who makes up the lies you have been found out too many times. So I would rather be on the side of a wee bit stupid than make up shit like you do.

[salmonbuddie]

I struggle to understand how the Scottish voting figures from the EU referendum could offer Nicola Sturgeon any encouragement for a "YES" result in a future independence referendum.

The 62:38 split within Scotland who voted in favour of Remain tells me that 38% of the Scottish electorate do not wish to be in the EU. For Nicola Sturgeon to argue the case for a future Scottish independence referendum based on creating an independent Scotland within the EU she will automatically start that campaign with that 38% of the electorate against her. Therefore she will need to achieve 51% support for Scottish independence from the 62% that wanted to 'Remain'. I would estimate that requirement at pretty much 5 out of 6 (approx 82%) of 'Remains' also being pro-independence. Unlikely IMO.

You also need to factor in the 16/17 year olds, polls (and Indyref1) indicate they're mostly pro Indy.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Exactly.....where will Lego heid and Salmond find the cash now that the oil value they so love has gone through the floor ? Do they think Joe public will be happy to pay double tax to fulfil their warped dream?

You do realise that the UK is financially fecked?

[oaksoft]

3 minutes ago, jimmy boo said:

Exactly.....where will Lego heid and Salmond find the cash now that the oil value they so love has gone through the floor ? Do they think Joe public will be happy to pay double tax to fulfil their warped dream?

The same way that black hole is being filled right now (and dont say via Westminster subsidies because we now know that is bollox).

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Scotland welcomed to join EU

[Julian Banjos]

3 hours ago, Wilbur said:

The 62:38 split within Scotland who voted in favour of Remain tells me that 38% of the Scottish electorate do not wish to be in the EU. For Nicola Sturgeon to argue the case for a future Scottish independence referendum based on creating an independent Scotland within the EU she will automatically start that campaign with that 38% of the electorate against her. .

The party with the highest % of "Leave" voters in Scotland was the SNP, so the assumption that there will be 38% of the electorate against Sturgeon come the starting gun of indyref2 is most likely wrong. Take out the SNP voters and the figure would be under 30%.

The unknowns are how many of those "Leave" SNP votes were tactical and how those who genuinely dislike the EU would vote in a toss-up between being part of the UK or the EU. My suspicion is the majority of those 300,000 or so will take the EU option.  

Cl6J79zXEAErLOf.jpg-large

Edited June 26, 2016 by Julian Banjos

[Stuart Dickson]

1 hour ago, tony soprano said:

Scotland welcomed to join EU

This is the same Kirchaum was told us the UK couldn't survive on it's own and promised crippling tarrifs if we left? The kind of language they are reversing from with a great deal of haste. 

The news today suggested that as a result of Brexit the German taxpayer was going to have to find a further £2Bn per annum just to cover the revenue lost from the UK. I wonder how the "Independent" Scottish government would plan to assist with that shortfall especially since Sturgeon wouldn't be negotiating from a position of strength since Scotland would be completely and utterly f**ked without either the rest of the UK or the EU. 

 

[Stuart Dickson]

1 hour ago, Julian Banjos said:

The party with the highest % of "Leave" voters in Scotland was the SNP, so the assumption that there will be 38% of the electorate against Sturgeon come the starting gun of indyref2 is most likely wrong. Take out the SNP voters and the figure would be under 30%.

The unknowns are how many of those "Leave" SNP votes were tactical and how those who genuinely dislike the EU would vote in a toss-up between being part of the UK or the EU. My suspicion is the majority of those 300,000 or so will take the EU option.  

Cl6J79zXEAErLOf.jpg-large

Hmm, I think you're wrong to be honest but we can simplify this. The Daily Record are running a story today that they commissioned their own poll, sampling 1004 Scots and they reckon support for Independence yesterday stood at 54%. They say the breakdown of their poll showed 49% in favour of Independence, 42% not in favour of independence and 9% were don't knows. Now I would suggest this is the high point for the SNP. After today we're going to see the financial markets stabilise after their knee jerk reaction, and it's going to become very quickly apparent that it's business as usual; that paternity and maternity rights haven't been affected, that we've all got the same holiday entitlement and that even our mobile phone tariffs haven't changed. Indeed as it becomes clear that Brexit might actually be good news as we see yet another Greek bailout just weeks away I'm absolutely certain voting intentions will swing back the other way. 

 

Edited June 27, 2016 by Stuart Dickson

[Julian Banjos]

Should also be mentioned that there are 170,000 EU citizens in Scotland who didn't get a vote last week. You'd have to guess they would almost unanimously like to remain EU citizens. That should give another dunt to the "Yes" vote which wasn't there before. 

[Bud the Baker]

8 hours ago, tony soprano said:

Scotland welcomed to join EU

So it looks like the Mail's unnamed "EC source" was made up - how surprising!

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Should also be mentioned that there are 170,000 EU citizens in Scotland who didn't get a vote last week. You'd have to guess they would almost unanimously like to remain EU citizens. That should give another dunt to the "Yes" vote which wasn't there before. 

16 & 17 yo who would get a vote in Indy Ref, didn't get a vote on EU last week either.

[Bud the Baker]

Shifting sands..................

 

Quote

Several members of the shadow cabinet have resigned in protest at Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's handling of the EU referendum.

Among them is the only Scottish Labour MP Ian Murray.

The former shadow secretary of state for Scotland told BBC Good Morning Scotland that the party stands behind Nicola Sturgeon in her attempts to protect Scotland's interests: "We will support the first minister as the Scottish Labour Party to make sure that Scotland's jobs, Scotland's economy is protected by this utterly dreadful decision by the Conservative Party to put their party first before the country."

 

 

[Stuart Dickson]

Shifting sands..................

 

Several members of the shadow cabinet have resigned in protest at Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's handling of the EU referendum.

Among them is the only Scottish Labour MP Ian Murray.

The former shadow secretary of state for Scotland told BBC Good Morning Scotland that the party stands behind Nicola Sturgeon in her attempts to protect Scotland's interests: "We will support the first minister as the Scottish Labour Party to make sure that Scotland's jobs, Scotland's economy is protected by this utterly dreadful decision by the Conservative Party to put their party first before the country."

 

 

And example of how skewed the politicians idea of democracy really is. Frankly if they are unwilling to represent the electorate by following the wishes of the majority they should be resigning their seats

[Bud the Baker]

33 minutes ago, Stuart Dickson said:

And example of how skewed the politicians idea of democracy really is. Frankly if they are unwilling to represent the electorate by following the wishes of the majority they should be resigning their seats

Given that 62% of the Scottish electorate voted to remain (78% in his constituency - Edinburgh South) he undoubtedly thinks he is.

As ever your lack of respect for other peoples views shines through.