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The Run In - Championship 2016/2017


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Just now, TopCat said:

With 6 games to go and then being above 3 teams, yes I do. 

For a bit of historical context, 34 points would have been enough to finish 9th or higher in each of the last 7 Scottish Championship seasons.  That will be Ayr's total with 6 games remaining if they win tonight.  It would take an unlikely stream of results for 3 teams to overhaul them.  You call it negativity, I call it realism.

For what its worth I expect United to beat them easily.

I know the historical context - I posted it on here weeks ago. If we beat Ayr on Saturday - assuming they win tonight - they'd still need 5 points from 5 tough matches, including Utd,Hibs and Morton, and culminating in a trip to Starks Park on the final day for a showdown with Raith.

They are nowhere near safe from finishing bottom.

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16 minutes ago, Soctty said:

I know the historical context - I posted it on here weeks ago. If we beat Ayr on Saturday - assuming they win tonight - they'd still need 5 points from 5 tough matches, including Utd,Hibs and Morton, and culminating in a trip to Starks Park on the final day for a showdown with Raith.

They are nowhere near safe from finishing bottom.

Why would they 'need' 5 points from their remaining 5 games?

All they'd have to do is match or better ours, Dumbartons or Raith's points total between tonight (assuming they win) and the end of the season and they wouldn't finish bottom.  Where you getting 5 points from?

Edited by TopCat
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22 minutes ago, TopCat said:

Why would they 'need' 5 points from their remaining 5 games?

All they'd have to do is match or better ours, Dumbartons or Raith's points total between now and the end of the season and they wouldn't finish bottom.  Where you getting 5 points from?

39 points is my own assessment of the points needed to avoid finishing 10th. Given the last two seasons had Alloa, Livingston and Cowdenbeath flailing around struggling to get to 30 points, those are freak seasons. It's 9 seasons since 39 points not been enough to see a team finish above 10th in the Championship.

All Ayr have to do is better the results of the three teams around them. With trips to Paisley and Kirckaldy still to come and games against 3 of the top 4. It's not that simple. They would certainly not be "all but out of the running to finish 10th". They'd have a points advantage, and one that their rivals would love, but a long way to go still to secure safety.

Edited by Soctty
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Guest TPAFKATS
I maintain I will make mad passionate love with Kylie Minogue, while she's wearing her Commonwealth Games closing ceremony dress, before the end of 2017.
Now, beat that.
Edit: It's going to happen. Bookmark this. :wub:
 
 
kylie.jpg.57bf4c28c802c8d00daa6687f1a35296.jpg

There's more chance of you wearing that dress (and it fitting)
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15 minutes ago, Soctty said:

39 points is my own assessment of the points needed to avoid finishing 10th. Given the last two seasons had Alloa, Livingston and Cowdenbeath flailing around struggling to get to 30 points, those are freak seasons. It's 9 seasons since 39 points not been enough to see a team finish above 10th in the Championship.

All Ayr have to do is better the results of the three teams around them. With trips to Paisley and Kirckaldy still to come and games against 3 of the top 4. It's not that simple. They would certainly not be "all but out of the running to finish 10th". They'd have a points advantage, and one that their rivals would love, but a long way to go still to secure safety.

Ah, so you've just made the 5 points figure up, cheers.

They wouldn't need to better the results of the three teams around them if they won tonight at all.  They would have more points than all of us, so they could get a worse points return than the likes of Dumbarton over the next 6 games and still finish above them.

Also, avoiding 10th isn't safety.  And us for previous teams 'flailing around struggling to get to 30 points', that will be just like us this season then?

Edited by TopCat
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Just now, TopCat said:

Ah, so you've just made the 5 points figure up, cheers.

They wouldn't need to better the results of the three teams around them if they won tonight at all.  They would have more points than all of us, so they could get a worse points return than the likes of Dumbarton over the next 6 games and still finish above them.

Also, avoiding 10th isn't safety.

To be fair, it will be far more accurate than your made up 34 points nonsense.

If they win tonight, they'll have 34 points, having played a game more than us. We are looking to win our next two home games, against Ayr and Dumbarton - our two nearest clubs at present. If we do that, we'll be on 33 points with a game in hand. Ayr still need to pick up more points, a good bit more points. I think it's clear that 34 points will not be ll but out of the running to finish 10th", your original assumption.

Also, nobody said 10th was safety. We can all make irrelevant statements to end our post...

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Just now, Soctty said:

To be fair, it will be far more accurate than your made up 34 points nonsense.

If they win tonight, they'll have 34 points, having played a game more than us. We are looking to win our next two home games, against Ayr and Dumbarton - our two nearest clubs at present. If we do that, we'll be on 33 points with a game in hand. Ayr still need to pick up more points, a good bit more points. I think it's clear that 34 points will not be ll but out of the running to finish 10th", your original assumption.

Also, nobody said 10th was safety. We can all make irrelevant statements to end our post...

' but a long way to go to secure safety ' is how you ended your last post.  I certainly never suggested that Ayr would secure safety if they won tonight.

You're missing the point completely.  You keep comparing them to us and how we could catch them if they won tonight.  Of course we could catch them.   My point is it would be very unlikely for all 3 teams below them to catch them and overtake them in the 6 games that remain.  It's not the points total its the amount of teams between them and 10th that makes it unlikely they will end up there.

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1 minute ago, TopCat said:

' but a long way to go to secure safety ' is how you ended your last post.  I certainly never suggested that Ayr would secure safety if they won tonight.

You're missing the point completely.  You keep comparing them to us and how we could catch them if they won tonight.  Of course we could catch them.   My point is it would be very unlikely for all 3 teams below them to catch them and overtake them in the 6 games that remain.  It's not the points total its the amount of teams between them and 10th that makes it unlikely they will end up there.

Really don't care how I ended my last post, and how you interpreted it, cheers...

 

All three teams to catch them? Let's see.

 

Dumbarton would be a massive 3 points behind them. One win. Three draws. Not that unlikely over a 6 game period.

Raith would be a single point behind them. One draw. They play Ayr on the last day of the season. Unless Ayr get 3 points more than Raith in the intervening matches, Raith could still overtake them in the final game. I'd say there's a better than average chance that could happen. So not at all unlikely.

That leaves us, as the unlikely ones. We'd be 7 points behind Ayr. A win on Saturday would reduce to 4 points. A win at home to Dumbarton (while Ayr travel to Cappielow) reduces it to a point. We'd have made up at least 3 points, and as much as 6. So it's us who are the unlikely ones, so what you're really saying is that if Ayr win tonight we are incapable of catching them.

We got there in the end.

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1 hour ago, TopCat said:

With 6 games to go and then being above 3 teams, yes I do. 

For a bit of historical context, 34 points would have been enough to finish 9th or higher in each of the last 7 Scottish Championship seasons.  That will be Ayr's total with 6 games remaining if they win tonight.  It would take an unlikely stream of results for 3 teams to overhaul them.  You call it negativity, I call it realism.

For what its worth I expect United to beat them easily.

Your asuming Ayr will win tonight. They wont so take two positive tablets and look forward to our next home games. 

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Probably pointless trying to predict points tallies . The last months results have shown its very difficult to predict any scores in this league let alone how many points teams will end up on . Things will be clearer after our next 3 games .

 

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14 minutes ago, Soctty said:

Really don't care how I ended my last post, and how you interpreted it, cheers...

 

All three teams to catch them? Let's see.

 

Dumbarton would be a massive 3 points behind them. One win. Three draws. Not that unlikely over a 6 game period.

Raith would be a single point behind them. One draw. They play Ayr on the last day of the season. Unless Ayr get 3 points more than Raith in the intervening matches, Raith could still overtake them in the final game. I'd say there's a better than average chance that could happen. So not at all unlikely.

That leaves us, as the unlikely ones. We'd be 7 points behind Ayr. A win on Saturday would reduce to 4 points. A win at home to Dumbarton (while Ayr travel to Cappielow) reduces it to a point. We'd have made up at least 3 points, and as much as 6. So it's us who are the unlikely ones, so what you're really saying is that if Ayr win tonight we are incapable of catching them.

We got there in the end.

You've listed 3 events that would have to happen for Ayr to finish bottom.  All quite possible individually.  However unhappy to all happen as a collective, as they would need to for Ayr to finish bottom if they won tonight.

If Ayr win tonight and 1 of the 3 teams below Ayr hit a bad run of form between now and the end of the season they're safe.  I would assume that you would agree that 1 of Dumbarton, Raith or us hitting a bad run between now and May is quite likely?

 

 

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You've listed 3 events that would have to happen for Ayr to finish bottom.  All quite possible individually.  However unhappy to all happen as a collective, as they would need to for Ayr to finish bottom if they won tonight.
If Ayr win tonight and 1 of the 3 teams below Ayr hit a bad run of form between now and the end of the season they're safe.  I would assume that you would agree that 1 of Dumbarton, Raith or us hitting a bad run between now and May is quite likely?
 
 


Let me say it again. The only thing that is in any way unlikely is for us to finish above them, but even that is not enough to label Ayr "all but out for running to finish 10th".

It's as likely, if not more likely, that Ayr will have a bad run. A gap of 1 and 3 points to Raith & Dumbarton is not something I'd be using to write either team off.

Yet you said Ayr would be all but safe from automatic relegation if they win tonight. That's bonkers, and has been seen to be so.
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16 minutes ago, TopCat said:

Of course if you read my posts I said I expect United to beat Ayr easily.

"If Ayr beat Utd, Saints and Morton, they'd be all but out of the running to finish 10th."

 

I've found a way for your statement to make sense! :D

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22 minutes ago, munoz said:

Probably pointless trying to predict points tallies . The last months results have shown its very difficult to predict any scores in this league let alone how many points teams will end up on . Things will be clearer after our next 3 games .

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

THIS

Who would have believed we'd still be bottom, four points adrift, after the great run we've had? I live in hope that two teams implode and one is not us.

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3 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

THIS

Who would have believed we'd still be bottom, four points adrift, after the great run we've had? I live in hope that two teams implode and one is not us.

Erm, I did, sorta..............

On ‎07‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 3:03 PM, Bud the Baker said:

Interestingly we've got back to back games against Ayr and Dumbarton at the start of April reminiscent of the situation Gary Teale faced a couple of seasons ago. Hopefully it'll turn out differently for the club.

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14 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

But that was BEFORE our great run

We were always chasing a moving target (as I've also said before), without the great run we'd be relegated already!

On ‎18‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 4:58 PM, Bud the Baker said:

All the results in and we've made up two points on Dumbarton and a goal on Ayr & Raith.

Still believe we've got the squad that can do it but to roll out the clichés we're chasing a moving target and it's gonna be more about bottle than skill over the next se7en games.

 

Edited by Bud the Baker
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2 hours ago, TopCat said:

With 6 games to go and then being above 3 teams, yes I do. 

For a bit of historical context, 34 points would have been enough to finish 9th or higher in each of the last 7 Scottish Championship seasons.  That will be Ayr's total with 6 games remaining if they win tonight.  It would take an unlikely stream of results for 3 teams to overhaul them.  You call it negativity, I call it realism.

For what its worth I expect United to beat them easily.

FFS what a miserable pile of crap. :lol:

Historical context is irrelevant.

In football, the past does not predict the future.

It really beggars belief that this needs pointing out.

Oh and we would have SEVEN games to go including a game in hand over them.

This season has been very tough but by FAR and away the worst part of it has been listening to you bang on since about September.

You are not a realist. You are a bottler. You personally gave up on the team well before Christmas. That is a bottler in my book. Stop fluffing your own pillows.

Fortunately we have stronger characters in charge at the club and on the pitch.

We may survive or we may go down but you will always be remembered as the guy with so little resilience that you mentally gave up in November.

Your choice of course but f**k me what a way to live.

Part of Generation Biscuit. Apply slight pressure and you crumble.

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