Brexit Negotiations

[Bud the Baker]

VoC - probably what May wanted.

On public declarations she'll romp it, but it's a secret ballot! 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[St.Ricky]

21 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

VoC - probably what May wanted.

On public declarations she'll romp it, but it's a secret ballot! 

I think you call this correctly Bud. 

Few things are as strange as politics and politics are certainly strange right now. 

But.... Will JC then propose a VOC by parliament? 

Edited December 12, 2018 by St.Ricky

[Bud the Baker]

May at PMQs getting loud support from her "loyal backbenchers".

Quite clearly Monday's cancellation was part of a strategy to force a party VoC followed by delaying the vote on her Brexit deal till Jan 21 (unless it can be further delayed) with the ultimate aim of bumping the deal through in a climate of fear of a "No Deal" exit.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[St.Ricky]

36 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

May at PMQs getting loud support from her "loyal backbenchers".

Quite clearly Monday's cancellation was part of a strategy to force a party VoC followed by delaying the vote on her Brexit deal till Jan 21 (unless it can be further delayed) with the ultimate aim of bumping the deal through in a climate of fear of a "No Deal" exit.

That seems plausible. However.  Labour can/will choose to bring forward a vote of no confidence in the Government. 

This,  then leaves the options of Election or People's Vote. 

[Bud the Baker]

25 minutes ago, St.Ricky said:

That seems plausible. However.  Labour can/will choose to bring forward a vote of no confidence in the Government. 

This,  then leaves the options of Election or People's Vote. 

Until May's current "clarification of The Backstop " process is seen to be a  sham  it's pointless as  the most likely  outcome is Tory MPs getting behind May.

What Corbyn should have demanded is  "OK I'll give you till the European Council meeting" on Thurs/Fri and demanded the debate suspended last Monday be resumed next Monday and decided before the end of the current session even if that meant an extension or sitting  between Xmas & New Year.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[St.Ricky]

1 minute ago, Bud the Baker said:

Until May's current "clarification of The Backstop " process is seen to be a  sham  it's pointless as  the most likely  is Tory MPs getting behind May.

What Corbyn should have demanded is  "OK I'll give you till the European Council meeting" on Thurs/Fri and demanded the debate suspended last Monday be resumed next Monday and decided before the end of the current session even if that meant an extension or sitting  between Xmas & New Year.

Wouldn't argue with your suggestions... fine judgements in political terms.  

[oaksoft]

10 hours ago, salmonbuddie said:

If you can't follow the logical progression from No to leaving the EU there's no point in debating it any further.
 

I recognise spin when I see it.

Manuel Barossa was more than just "one man". He spent the best part of 10 years as the President of the European Commission. You can't just casually dismiss the opinions of someone like that just because you don't like what he has to say. He was not the only significant EU politician to be making these kinds of remarks. Stop trying to re-write history.

Between trying to re-write history and spinning your arse off, I have to say that if you stop treating people like idiots you'll get a better discussion.

Edited December 12, 2018 by oaksoft

[Bud the Baker]

16 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I think the Spanish guy (Manuel Barossa?) made it pretty clear we'd have a problem.

I have no idea why you are insisting it was the No vote which kicked us out of the EU. It was the Leave win that virtually nobody predicted which did that. At the time of Indyref, Remain was so far ahead that it was entirely reasonable to assume it would win and that we wouldn't be having the shitstorm that is going down at the moment.

Sounds like she is being summoned by the 1922 committee chairman tomorrow. If she goes, what happens next is anyone's guess.

Actually polling on EU withdrawal in the  years prior to the referendum showed large swings although REMAIN was ahead more often than Leave. 

It's only wiki but it shows the complacency of the REMAIN campaign was folly,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2014

Edited December 12, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[salmonbuddie]

I recognise spin when I see it.
Manuel Barossa was more than just "one man". He spent the best part of 10 years as the President of the European Commission. You can't just casually dismiss the opinions of someone like that just because you don't like what he has to say. He was not the only significant EU politician to be making these kinds of remarks. Stop trying to re-write history.
Between trying to re-write history and spinning your arse off, I have to say that if you stop treating people like idiots you'll get a better discussion.

If you're such an expert at recognising spin (amongst your many other self proclaimed areas of expertise) you'll recognise that no-one, not one single individual in any way connected with the EU, ever said Scotland wouldn't be allowed in. What they actually said was that it was a difficult and unprecedented situation which was then spun into something else by others for the original Project Fear. Project Fear is the classic spin operation by which everything else is judged.

It's hypothetical now but it's just another example of the lies BT fed the populace back in the day.

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

Actually polling on EU withdrawal in the  years prior to the referendum showed large swings although REMAIN was ahead more often than Leave. 

It's only wiki but it shows the complacency of the REMAIN campaign was folly,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2014

Fair enough.

Yes it's only Wiki but I'll accept that in this case.

[oaksoft]

34 minutes ago, salmonbuddie said:

If you're such an expert at recognising spin (amongst your many other self proclaimed areas of expertise)

 

And that is where I stopped reading.

Happy to chat but I'm getting too old for these types of conversation.

Life is too short.

Edited December 12, 2018 by oaksoft

[salmonbuddie]

This

I recognise spin when I see it...

...if you stop treating people like idiots you'll get a better discussion.

followed by this

And that is where I stopped reading.
Happy to chat but I'm getting too old for these types of conversation.
Life is too short.

You couldn't make it up.

[oaksoft]

35 minutes ago, salmonbuddie said:

This
 

 

followed by this



You couldn't make it up.
 

 

OK let's leave it at that then.

[Bud the Baker]

May has told the 22 she won’t lead  the party into the next election. Ministers crying in the room 

 

Erm, unless she does! 

 

Quote

May told MPs clearly that she would not fight the general election in 2022. Because she has repeatedly ruled out calling a snap general election, in her mind this is the next general election.

As for what might happen if there were an election before 2022, on that she was non-committal. An MP in the room said she made the point that she would then be asked to commit to standing down in 2021, or in 2020, or even next year.

So, if there were to be an early election, it is possible she could still seek to lead her party into it.

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[Kemp]

On 12/10/2018 at 8:25 PM, saintnextlifetime said:

The whole European racket has been teetering on an knife edge and the Europeans are damned if they will let Gt Britain leave as they know it will be a disater for them , once we get out it will become apparent just what a corrupt mess Europe is . .

Utter bollocks.

[saintnextlifetime]

1 hour ago, salmonbuddie said:

This
 

 

followed by this



You couldn't make it up.
 

 

Aye most likely neurosis.  .

[HSS]

[oaksoft]

11 minutes ago, HSS said:

That's just shy of 40% of her own MPs who actively want her out.

That's after the horrendous general election stunt which backfired.

And before you add that she needs all of those 117 plus Dorres who spoiled her paper to be on her side PLUS all DUP MPs to have a chance at getting through any Brexit deal.

Any reasonable person would conclude that whatever the solution to this mess is, she clearly cannot be the person to deliver it. She doesn't appear to be a reasonable person though. If she stays on I can only assume she's more interested in remaining in power than serving the country or even serving her own party.

Edited December 12, 2018 by oaksoft

[Guest TPAFKATS]

That's just shy of 40% of her own MPs who actively want her out.
That's after the horrendous general election stunt which backfired.
And before you add that she needs all of those 117 plus Dorres who spoiled her paper to be on her side PLUS all DUP MPs to have a chance at getting through any Brexit deal.
Any reasonable person would conclude that whatever the solution to this mess is, she clearly cannot be the person to deliver it. She doesn't appear to be a reasonable person though. If she stays on I can only assume she's more interested in remaining in power than serving the country or even serving her own party.

She's stated she's not staying for the next general election. Also not sure there's any greatness to be had from being the pm who took us out, esp as she was a remainder.
So... Mibees she's determined to stay put just now as she believes the alternatives to her as PM are even worse. Which is quite a thing considering how incompetent she has been as both PM and home secretary.

[Cornwall_Saint]

1 minute ago, TPAFKATS said:

So... Mibees she's determined to stay put just now as she believes the alternatives to her as PM are even worse. Which is quite a thing considering how incompetent she has been as both PM and home secretary.

This is my concern. I despise May, but the thoughts of Rees-Mogg, Johnson etc as PM are even more sickening. In other words she’s one of the better options in the pile of shite available.

[St.Ricky]

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

That's just shy of 40% of her own MPs who actively want her out.

That's after the horrendous general election stunt which backfired.

And before you add that she needs all of those 117 plus Dorres who spoiled her paper to be on her side PLUS all DUP MPs to have a chance at getting through any Brexit deal.

Any reasonable person would conclude that whatever the solution to this mess is, she clearly cannot be the person to deliver it. She doesn't appear to be a reasonable person though. If she stays on I can only assume she's more interested in remaining in power than serving the country or even serving her own party.

Your final sentence sums it up for me. I would only add that it was a job she should not have taken. 

[Bud the Baker]

ERGers on TV this morning saying that a non-legally-binding reiteration from the EU that the NI backstop is only  an , erm, backstop and  not intended to be used will not be enough to get them to back her in a vote (whenever it comes) - so no change.

Let the chaos continue!

[stlucifer]

With all  the chaos this so called Brexit has caused I'm certain the only sane course of action is to cancel the whole thing. There is nothing good about leaving under these, or any alternative, conditions. The public were lied to. Even the little Englanders who thought it would stop immigration must now be aware that a large number of those come from outwith the EU. I cannot see any deal being acceptable to all and no deal would be a complete disaster. There is no requirement for a second referendum to revoke article 50. Everyone tried but the EU and British government couldn't reach agreement so it all falls apart and we keep the deal we have. Why in hell's name would any sensible person bite their nose off to spite their face?

[oaksoft]

6 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

With all  the chaos this so called Brexit has caused I'm certain the only sane course of action is to cancel the whole thing. There is nothing good about leaving under these, or any alternative, conditions. The public were lied to. Even the little Englanders who thought it would stop immigration must now be aware that a large number of those come from outwith the EU. I cannot see any deal being acceptable to all and no deal would be a complete disaster. There is no requirement for a second referendum to revoke article 50. Everyone tried but the EU and British government couldn't reach agreement so it all falls apart and we keep the deal we have. Why in hell's name would any sensible person bite their nose off to spite their face?

There is no majority in parliament for either this deal or no deal.

The only options seem to be to ignore the vote and remain, have a general election to decide it or have another referendum.

Unless May is ousted and a hardcore Brexiteer replaces her.

[St.Ricky]

6 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

With all  the chaos this so called Brexit has caused I'm certain the only sane course of action is to cancel the whole thing. There is nothing good about leaving under these, or any alternative, conditions. The public were lied to. Even the little Englanders who thought it would stop immigration must now be aware that a large number of those come from outwith the EU. I cannot see any deal being acceptable to all and no deal would be a complete disaster. There is no requirement for a second referendum to revoke article 50. Everyone tried but the EU and British government couldn't reach agreement so it all falls apart and we keep the deal we have. Why in hell's name would any sensible person bite their nose off to spite their face?

St Lucy. I agree.

Your last sentence sums things up for me..Why in hell's name would any sensible person bite their nose off to spite their face?

Only for (perceived ) narrow party advantage .

Constitutionally this is a mess.