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Brexit Negotiations


Bud the Baker

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1 hour ago, stlucifer said:

Only 37% of the electorate voted for EU exit. Hardly an overwhelming majority of the population. Even of those who voted, the margin was a mere 2% give or take. I know it's still a win but, given the lies that were spouted, the remain campaign would, I firmly believe, most likely win in any rerun. This begs the question. Why should something so fundamental as breaking off ties be down to the few who were influenced by lies?

I reiterate that this is far too important to have a stubborn, obstinate, power hungry person deciding that it's her way or the bye,bye way. Other avenues need to be explored to make sure this does not destroy what we already have. This must include, were you wrong or duped? ie Remain.

It doesn't matter what percentage voted for it.

Everyone who wanted to have a say, had one and the result was a majority vote to Leave. Those who didn't vote don't have a right to complain. Non voters are irrelevant.

May is just trying to find a way to honour that result which is why she is ruling out a Remain option.

Personally, I think we need to drop this idea that people who voted No were duped or were too stupid to know what they were voting for. The same could easily be said about many who voted Yes. That line of argument just won't get us anywhere.

Edited by oaksoft
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1 hour ago, stlucifer said:

Silly thing to say when I am asking for everyone, including your good self, to have a say. I promise I don't want to make any decision on my own. And this is only because our elected representatives CAN'T make a decision.:huh:

ETA. That's not even considering the fact that we now know that the Leave campaign may have been illegitimately funded and the information they were plastering over their bus was, to put it mildly, cr@p.

I think it is a bit presumptuous to think that the leave campaign was successful because of what it said on a bus.  .

In my personal experience of anytime I worked in or visited England,  they had been wanting to leave for years . The English are just like that.  .

To some extent , people in this country want to reclaim their  sovereignty from the UK so that they can give it awa' to Merkel et al. .

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5 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Parliament hasn't decided but the people did and they clearly voted to Leave.

I don't know what is hard to understand about that.

They didn't vote to Leave with conditions attached.

They didn't vote Leave with a deal.

They voted to Leave period.

You and I might not like this but that is a fact.

It's worth re-iterating that I hope.a Remain option is still available but there's no democratic reason for it at all.

The problem isn't directly yours or mine or with the referendum.

It is a failure of Parliamentary Government to carry out the declared, but not legally binding,referendum result. 

It is this failure which leads to the call for a people's vote and to offering the people a choice between the agreement reached by the Government that Parliament won't support or to Remain. 

We probably will agree to differ on this. 

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8 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

In my personal experience of anytime I worked in or visited England,  they had been wanting to leave for years . The English are just like that.  .

What a load of tosh, you have just tarnished every English person in the same way Mancs after Rangers fans wrecked the place could have said All Scots are knuckle dragging protestant Neanderthals.

 

I agree lots of English voted leave but so did lots of Welsh and Scots, the vote should never of happened but the f**kwits in charge let it.

 

In Liverpool, Manchester and south of England more voted remain than leave, I cannot comment on other areas as I don't live there but I do live in the Northwest and most of the English I know voted Remain.

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Guest TPAFKATS
It doesn't matter what percentage voted for it.
Everyone who wanted to have a say, had one and the result was a majority vote to Leave. Those who didn't vote don't have a right to complain. Non voters are irrelevant.
May is just trying to find a way to honour that result which is why she is ruling out a Remain option.
Personally, I think we need to drop this idea that people who voted No were duped or were too stupid to know what they were voting for. The same could easily be said about many who voted Yes. That line of argument just won't get us anywhere.
Not quite everyone who wanted to have a say was allowed a vote [emoji57]
Don't know the figures off the top of my head, but EU nationals who live, work, pay tax in UK weren't allowed a vote.
Were UK ex pats, or immigrants to those in the host country, given a vote?
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Guest TPAFKATS
You and I could be at this for ever, I don't wish to sound pompous or arrogant but having worked within the ERDF and ESF European programmes for a number of years both in Scotland and in England I feel I do have a smattering of how the system works and it doesn't, which is why I want us out.  I have no wish to surrender UK sovereignty to Europe nor to be legislated at by non elected officials who earn more in a month than most UK people do in a year.  My desire is that we leave Europe with No Deal as the UK electorate voted for, they did not vote leave with 'the best deal' decided by Corbin, St Lucifer or wee Jimmy frae Saltcoates, they voted to leave, period.
The question was do we stay or leave. Its impossible to say whether people voted to leave with a hard, soft, Canada, Norway or Narnia style deal.

Which is kinda the problem we now find ourselves facing.

The sovereignty thing is also a bit of a laugh when you consider how disfunctional UK sovereignty actually is, as exemplified by government refusing to allow parliament to vote on many aspects of this brexit process.
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2 hours ago, Swiss_Saint said:

What a load of tosh, you have just tarnished every English person in the same way Mancs after Rangers fans wrecked the place could have said All Scots are knuckle dragging protestant Neanderthals.

 

I agree lots of English voted leave but so did lots of Welsh and Scots, the vote should never of happened but the f**kwits in charge let it.

 

In Liverpool, Manchester and south of England more voted remain than leave, I cannot comment on other areas as I don't live there but I do live in the Northwest and most of the English I know voted Remain.

Nice rant.  .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                        .  . Has someone upset you. .

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5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Parliament hasn't decided but the people did and they clearly voted to Leave.

I don't know what is hard to understand about that.

They didn't vote to Leave with conditions attached.

They didn't vote Leave with a deal.

They voted to Leave period.

You and I might not like this but that is a fact.

It's worth re-iterating that I hope.a Remain option is still available but there's no democratic reason for it at all.

Unless the 350 million quid and reduced immigration was a condition as far as people were concerned. After all. That's what the leave campaign suggested would happen.

My last reply to Jaybee is why I think it reasonable to check with the electorate again now the lies and possible financial "jiggery pokery" has come to light.

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7 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Parliament hasn't decided but the people did and they clearly voted to Leave.

I don't know what is hard to understand about that.

They didn't vote to Leave with conditions attached.

They didn't vote Leave with a deal.

They voted to Leave period.

You and I might not like this but that is a fact.

It's worth re-iterating that I hope.a Remain option is still available but there's no democratic reason for it at all.

Absolutely spot on, apart from the last sentence, we voted to leave so there should not be any option never mind a remain one.  

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8 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

Not quite everyone who wanted to have a say was allowed a vote emoji57.png
Don't know the figures off the top of my head, but EU nationals who live, work, pay tax in UK weren't allowed a vote.
 

And thanks to this vote, us EU nationals now have to pay to remain here, no matter how long we’ve been here or what we may have contributed.

8 hours ago, Swiss_Saint said:

In Liverpool, Manchester and south of England more voted remain than leave, I cannot comment on other areas as I don't live there but I do live in the Northwest and most of the English I know voted Remain.

Cornwall was heavily in favour of Leave. Bizarre IMO considering how much funding across the county we’ve received from the EU for roads, infrastructure and so on. Cornwall gets f**k all from Westminster, says it all when all 6 constituencies are Tory but the MPs are making no effort to improve the train lines (there’s only one line into Cornwall and it was rendered useless during the storms a few years back when the line collapsed at Dawlish). There’s no chance Cornwall will get the replacement funding needed from WM that they will lose from the EU, it really is turkeys voting for Xmas.

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I picked up on this letter to the FT a couple of days ago, and it certainly left a little smidgen of thought in my mind that the writer may well have hit the nail on the head.

Basically we are probably now regarded as a fairly small island off Europe that once had quite a lot of red colouration spattered over the world atlas, but now alas we are no longer that world super-power that should give us any expectation to sit at the top table of the world powers.

This sorry mess that we are heading towards, essentially comes down to a bunch of totally inept politicians who run around shouting at each other and have lost sight of what they are supposed to be doing, i.e. looking after our best interests. 

I am in the Titanic and unfortunately rather late on in the day, I see a very large iceberg right in front of the ship and we are heading for it at full steam!   :hammer

1534540334_BrexitLetter.thumb.jpg.b64cc4d73fab4198993a2dc5d01cf18a.jpg

Edited by The Original 59er
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  • 3 weeks later...

Oh well, it's next Tuesday unless, of course, it ain't! :whistle

Quote

MPs will vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal on Tuesday, 15 January, government sources have confirmed.

The Commons vote was called off last month by the PM, who was facing defeat, but sources have told the BBC the vote will not be delayed again.

It is also understood the government will set out further reassurances on the controversial backstop.

 

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209 Tories have written to May and said please dont do a No Deal ?

 

How the hell does that work? If the House votes down the Deal?

I wonder what the poll would be on this deal ?

Persoanlly I dont see anything happening March 29th bar an extention and by holding out the vote will be raised again and again until it goes thru. Labour will crumble as per 

 

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2 hours ago, DougJamie said:

209 Tories have written to May and said please dont do a No Deal ?

 

How the hell does that work? If the House votes down the Deal?

I wonder what the poll would be on this deal ?

Persoanlly I dont see anything happening March 29th bar an extention and by holding out the vote will be raised again and again until it goes thru. Labour will crumble as per 

 

You answered your own question. There will be a delay and, eventually, there will either be an election, which the tories might not want to win, or a so called people's vote on the deals available. This time there would be actual real information for people to make judgements on. Deal. No Deal. No exit. I actually see that as the best bet for those who want to break away altogether as it would split those wary of exit into the camps of May's par boiled deal OR staying in. That's why I'm surprised that those "little englanders" are so against another vote.

Edited by stlucifer
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5 minutes ago, melmac said:

If the HofC votes against TM's deal, then we'll leave with no deal unless the elected representatives can get their finger out and do something meaningful before Y2K strikes again, Countdown style.

As has been said previously. There is nothing to stop the leave date from being extended while further discussions take place or, for that matter, article 50 from being unilaterally rescinded. The former would leave us in a state of "suspended animation" being neither in nor out and the latter may or not be political suicide though I think the majority of the country would secretly give a sigh of relief and slowly move on while mumbling about the lack of democracy.

Basically the tories have made a right royal cock up of this from the get go trying to ensure they didn't lose those previously mentioned little englanders in their electorate to the quite openly xenophobic UKIPs. Typically they showed no concern for the country over their lust for power.

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1 hour ago, stlucifer said:

You answered your own question. There will be a delay and, eventually, there will either be an election, which the tories might not want to win, or a so called people's vote on the deals available. This time there would be actual real information for people to make judgements on. Deal. No Deal. No exit. I actually see that as the best bet for those who want to break away altogether as it would split those wary of exit into the camps of May's par boiled deal OR staying in. That's why I'm surprised that those "little englanders" are so against another vote.

Of course I did , it was a great insightful blurb by a talented poster :wink:

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2 hours ago, stlucifer said:

As has been said previously. There is nothing to stop the leave date from being extended while further discussions take place or, for that matter, article 50 from being unilaterally rescinded. The former would leave us in a state of "suspended animation" being neither in nor out and the latter may or not be political suicide though I think the majority of the country would secretly give a sigh of relief and slowly move on while mumbling about the lack of democracy.

Basically the tories have made a right royal cock up of this from the get go trying to ensure they didn't lose those previously mentioned little englanders in their electorate to the quite openly xenophobic UKIPs. Typically they showed no concern for the country over their lust for power.

You think they made a right arse of it because they really wanted to stay? Now there's a programme for national geographic, brexit conspiracy theories.

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After losing the vote I believe that 5 options available – 1. No Deal, 2. Renegotiate with EU, 3. EU Referendum re-run, 4. General Election or 5. Vote of No Confidence.

It would take a parliamentary vote of no confidence in order to force Theresa May to stand down.  That of course would lead to a General Election and the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn forming a government perhaps with the support of the SNP.  The thought of a Corbyn government all but guarantees Tory MPs and the DUP would support May.

Theresa May will not call a snap general election for the same reason.  Thus, options 5 and 4 can be dismissed.

Neither Jeremy Corbyn nor Theresa May will push for a second In/Out referendum.  Corbyn desperately wants Brexit and May knows that to call a 2nd vote would lead to recriminations against her and her party by angry voters.  It would cause a rift within the Conservative party so great that it could fragment.

Could a de-facto 2nd EU Refrendum vote be held presented as a vote on the deal [i.e. No Deal … Yes or No?] that could be interpreted as a vote to cancel Brexit if No Deal was rejected?  Perhaps, but that would lead to the same recriminations mentioned above.

What if May decided to by-pass the House of Commons and ask the public to back or reject her deal.  It would still require Commons’ approval to hold such a vote.  Then there would be the inevitable stalemate as MPs failed to reach agreement on the question asked.

Option 3, another EU referendum, can thus be ruled out.

Quite a few “experts” are placing great stock in amended wording from the EU 27 over the Northern Irish backstop.  May could then present a modified version of her deal to MPs but who’s going to back it.

The short answer is not enough of the Commons, regardless of what wording she manages to amend.  The DUP won’t back it nor will hard Brexiteers from her own party.  The SNP, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems will likewise reject it.

Jeremy Corbyn will reject whatever deal May puts before the House of Commons, as will most of his MPs.  There is simply no way Corbyn wants to be labelled as the Labour leader who facilitated a Tory Brexit plan regardless of the terms of the agreement.

Corbyn wants Brexit to go ahead and for the Tories to own it and that’s  why option 4, renegotiation, will also change nothing. Corbyn is happy to stall until March 29th.  If nothing happens to stop Brexit by March 29th then the UK leaves the European Union by default with no deal.  This is why option 5, No Deal, is now the most likely scenario as no deal is a win-win for Corbyn.  No deal would leave a mess that would weaken May to the point even a Corbyn led Labour party couldn’t fail to capitalise.  Corbyn gets Brexit and the best chance he’ll ever get to become PM.

 

The only way a No Deal can be prevented is if the EU 27 agree to halt Article 50.  Even then all they would be doing would be delaying the inevitable and handing the UK another period of uncertainty and chaos.  Would May accept the loss of face by pleading for such a delay?

With a No Deal Brexit or indefinite delay then surely either would see support for Scottish independence grow.

Just my thoughts !

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1 hour ago, DougJamie said:

After losing the vote I believe that 5 options available – 1. No Deal, 2. Renegotiate with EU, 3. EU Referendum re-run, 4. General Election or 5. Vote of No Confidence.

It would take a parliamentary vote of no confidence in order to force Theresa May to stand down.  That of course would lead to a General Election and the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn forming a government perhaps with the support of the SNP.  The thought of a Corbyn government all but guarantees Tory MPs and the DUP would support May.

Theresa May will not call a snap general election for the same reason.  Thus, options 5 and 4 can be dismissed.

Neither Jeremy Corbyn nor Theresa May will push for a second In/Out referendum.  Corbyn desperately wants Brexit and May knows that to call a 2nd vote would lead to recriminations against her and her party by angry voters.  It would cause a rift within the Conservative party so great that it could fragment.

Could a de-facto 2nd EU Refrendum vote be held presented as a vote on the deal [i.e. No Deal … Yes or No?] that could be interpreted as a vote to cancel Brexit if No Deal was rejected?  Perhaps, but that would lead to the same recriminations mentioned above.

What if May decided to by-pass the House of Commons and ask the public to back or reject her deal.  It would still require Commons’ approval to hold such a vote.  Then there would be the inevitable stalemate as MPs failed to reach agreement on the question asked.

Option 3, another EU referendum, can thus be ruled out.

Quite a few “experts” are placing great stock in amended wording from the EU 27 over the Northern Irish backstop.  May could then present a modified version of her deal to MPs but who’s going to back it.

The short answer is not enough of the Commons, regardless of what wording she manages to amend.  The DUP won’t back it nor will hard Brexiteers from her own party.  The SNP, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems will likewise reject it.

Jeremy Corbyn will reject whatever deal May puts before the House of Commons, as will most of his MPs.  There is simply no way Corbyn wants to be labelled as the Labour leader who facilitated a Tory Brexit plan regardless of the terms of the agreement.

Corbyn wants Brexit to go ahead and for the Tories to own it and that’s  why option 4, renegotiation, will also change nothing. Corbyn is happy to stall until March 29th.  If nothing happens to stop Brexit by March 29th then the UK leaves the European Union by default with no deal.  This is why option 5, No Deal, is now the most likely scenario as no deal is a win-win for Corbyn.  No deal would leave a mess that would weaken May to the point even a Corbyn led Labour party couldn’t fail to capitalise.  Corbyn gets Brexit and the best chance he’ll ever get to become PM.

 

The only way a No Deal can be prevented is if the EU 27 agree to halt Article 50.  Even then all they would be doing would be delaying the inevitable and handing the UK another period of uncertainty and chaos.  Would May accept the loss of face by pleading for such a delay?

With a No Deal Brexit or indefinite delay then surely either would see support for Scottish independence grow.

Just my thoughts !

It just gets messier and messier. 

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1 hour ago, DougJamie said:

After losing the vote I believe that 5 options available – 1. No Deal, 2. Renegotiate with EU, 3. EU Referendum re-run, 4. General Election or 5. Vote of No Confidence.

It would take a parliamentary vote of no confidence in order to force Theresa May to stand down.  That of course would lead to a General Election and the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn forming a government perhaps with the support of the SNP.  The thought of a Corbyn government all but guarantees Tory MPs and the DUP would support May.

Theresa May will not call a snap general election for the same reason.  Thus, options 5 and 4 can be dismissed.

Neither Jeremy Corbyn nor Theresa May will push for a second In/Out referendum.  Corbyn desperately wants Brexit and May knows that to call a 2nd vote would lead to recriminations against her and her party by angry voters.  It would cause a rift within the Conservative party so great that it could fragment.

Could a de-facto 2nd EU Refrendum vote be held presented as a vote on the deal [i.e. No Deal … Yes or No?] that could be interpreted as a vote to cancel Brexit if No Deal was rejected?  Perhaps, but that would lead to the same recriminations mentioned above.

What if May decided to by-pass the House of Commons and ask the public to back or reject her deal.  It would still require Commons’ approval to hold such a vote.  Then there would be the inevitable stalemate as MPs failed to reach agreement on the question asked.

Option 3, another EU referendum, can thus be ruled out.

Quite a few “experts” are placing great stock in amended wording from the EU 27 over the Northern Irish backstop.  May could then present a modified version of her deal to MPs but who’s going to back it.

The short answer is not enough of the Commons, regardless of what wording she manages to amend.  The DUP won’t back it nor will hard Brexiteers from her own party.  The SNP, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems will likewise reject it.

Jeremy Corbyn will reject whatever deal May puts before the House of Commons, as will most of his MPs.  There is simply no way Corbyn wants to be labelled as the Labour leader who facilitated a Tory Brexit plan regardless of the terms of the agreement.

Corbyn wants Brexit to go ahead and for the Tories to own it and that’s  why option 4, renegotiation, will also change nothing. Corbyn is happy to stall until March 29th.  If nothing happens to stop Brexit by March 29th then the UK leaves the European Union by default with no deal.  This is why option 5, No Deal, is now the most likely scenario as no deal is a win-win for Corbyn.  No deal would leave a mess that would weaken May to the point even a Corbyn led Labour party couldn’t fail to capitalise.  Corbyn gets Brexit and the best chance he’ll ever get to become PM.

 

The only way a No Deal can be prevented is if the EU 27 agree to halt Article 50.  Even then all they would be doing would be delaying the inevitable and handing the UK another period of uncertainty and chaos.  Would May accept the loss of face by pleading for such a delay?

With a No Deal Brexit or indefinite delay then surely either would see support for Scottish independence grow.

Just my thoughts !

You make a few assumptions I don't agree with. IF May thought she could rely on the DUP and all Tory MPs backing her against a GE she would make her deal a vote of confidence. In truth. She would lose that vote.

Corbyn may want a "no deal" but not because it would weaken the tories. He wants it to stop what he sees as an erosion of workers rights as is happening in the likes of Greece.

The UK government can, if it chooses, halt the exit process unilaterally. It doesn't need the 27's OK to do so, so May doesn't need to go, cap in hand.

There is a vast majority in the commons who won't accept a no deal so I wouldn't bet on there not being a call for a GE. It would be the cowards way out and the tories may even think it better to lose this and let the labour party take the blame for whatever outcome there may be making them unelectable medium to long term.

The last bit I do agree with. IF we were to fall out of the EU without a deal and it did make Scotland worse off then Scottish independence would certainly move centre stage.

Edited by stlucifer
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