shull Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sally02 Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 hours ago, DougJamie said: After losing the vote I believe that 5 options available – 1. No Deal, 2. Renegotiate with EU, 3. EU Referendum re-run, 4. General Election or 5. Vote of No Confidence. It would take a parliamentary vote of no confidence in order to force Theresa May to stand down. That of course would lead to a General Election and the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn forming a government perhaps with the support of the SNP. The thought of a Corbyn government all but guarantees Tory MPs and the DUP would support May. Theresa May will not call a snap general election for the same reason. Thus, options 5 and 4 can be dismissed. Neither Jeremy Corbyn nor Theresa May will push for a second In/Out referendum. Corbyn desperately wants Brexit and May knows that to call a 2nd vote would lead to recriminations against her and her party by angry voters. It would cause a rift within the Conservative party so great that it could fragment. Could a de-facto 2nd EU Refrendum vote be held presented as a vote on the deal [i.e. No Deal … Yes or No?] that could be interpreted as a vote to cancel Brexit if No Deal was rejected? Perhaps, but that would lead to the same recriminations mentioned above. What if May decided to by-pass the House of Commons and ask the public to back or reject her deal. It would still require Commons’ approval to hold such a vote. Then there would be the inevitable stalemate as MPs failed to reach agreement on the question asked. Option 3, another EU referendum, can thus be ruled out. Quite a few “experts” are placing great stock in amended wording from the EU 27 over the Northern Irish backstop. May could then present a modified version of her deal to MPs but who’s going to back it. The short answer is not enough of the Commons, regardless of what wording she manages to amend. The DUP won’t back it nor will hard Brexiteers from her own party. The SNP, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems will likewise reject it. Jeremy Corbyn will reject whatever deal May puts before the House of Commons, as will most of his MPs. There is simply no way Corbyn wants to be labelled as the Labour leader who facilitated a Tory Brexit plan regardless of the terms of the agreement. Corbyn wants Brexit to go ahead and for the Tories to own it and that’s why option 4, renegotiation, will also change nothing. Corbyn is happy to stall until March 29th. If nothing happens to stop Brexit by March 29th then the UK leaves the European Union by default with no deal. This is why option 5, No Deal, is now the most likely scenario as no deal is a win-win for Corbyn. No deal would leave a mess that would weaken May to the point even a Corbyn led Labour party couldn’t fail to capitalise. Corbyn gets Brexit and the best chance he’ll ever get to become PM. The only way a No Deal can be prevented is if the EU 27 agree to halt Article 50. Even then all they would be doing would be delaying the inevitable and handing the UK another period of uncertainty and chaos. Would May accept the loss of face by pleading for such a delay? With a No Deal Brexit or indefinite delay then surely either would see support for Scottish independence grow. Just my thoughts ! Getting your options mixed up there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, stlucifer said: You make a few assumptions I don't agree with. IF May thought she could rely on the DUP and all Tory MPs backing her against a GE she would make her deal a vote of confidence. In truth. She would lose that vote. Corbyn may want a "no deal" but not because it would weaken the tories. He wants it to stop what he sees as an erosion of workers rights as is happening in the likes of Greece. The UK government can, if it chooses, halt the exit process unilaterally. It doesn't need the 27's OK to do so, so May doesn't need to go, cap in hand. There is a vast majority in the commons who won't accept a no deal so I wouldn't bet on there not being a call for a GE. It would be the cowards way out and the tories may even think it better to lose this and let the labour party take the blame for whatever outcome there may be making them unelectable medium to long term. The last bit I do agree with. IF we were to fall out of the EU without a deal and it did make Scotland worse off then Scottish independence would certainly move centre stage. Surprisingly, it looks like May really is serious about leaving with no deal. She will lose this vote next week. May will then go back to the EU and warn them that if they don't budge on the backstop we'll be leaving with No Deal in March with us paying nothing and relying on WTO trade rules. At that point the EU will realise that actually the UK may well go for No Deal after all and will suddenly find a way to re-negotiate. If that fails we'll be out with no deal. I don't think we are looking at a second referendum because neither May nor Corbyn want it. Therefore I think the path now is either her current deal, the EU move to re-negotiate or we have no deal. I still think the EU will move on this but not until they realise that a no deal is the alternative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Ricky Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Surprisingly, it looks like May really is serious about leaving with no deal. She will lose this vote next week. May will then go back to the EU and warn them that if they don't budge on the backstop we'll be leaving with No Deal in March with us paying nothing and relying on WTO trade rules. At that point the EU will realise that actually the UK may well go for No Deal after all and will suddenly find a way to re-negotiate. If that fails we'll be out with no deal. I don't think we are looking at a second referendum because neither May nor Corbyn want it. Therefore I think the path now is either her current deal, the EU move to re-negotiate or we have no deal. I still think the EU will move on this but not until they realise that a no deal is the alternative. Nothing wrong with your logic. Textbook approach. Let's hope both sides have read the books. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 44 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Surprisingly, it looks like May really is serious about leaving with no deal. She will lose this vote next week. May will then go back to the EU and warn them that if they don't budge on the backstop we'll be leaving with No Deal in March with us paying nothing and relying on WTO trade rules. At that point the EU will realise that actually the UK may well go for No Deal after all and will suddenly find a way to re-negotiate. If that fails we'll be out with no deal. I don't think we are looking at a second referendum because neither May nor Corbyn want it. Therefore I think the path now is either her current deal, the EU move to re-negotiate or we have no deal. I still think the EU will move on this but not until they realise that a no deal is the alternative. It's brinksmanship. Of that there is no doubt. She needs to make people think she would do just that. And, I agree that May's backed herself into a corner BUT the majority of her party and most of the opposition, (Corbynites, for want of a better word, excepted), feel the same. The EU know this and the fact that the backstop is almost set in stone due to the Good Friday agreement means it would be near impossible to dilute that part of the deal. I cannot see parliament allowing May to steamroller her way to a no deal. The SNP would certainly step in with a vote of no confidence and it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of Tories at least abstained with most of the labour party smelling blood. May will know this is possible and will pull back from the brink with the alternatives outlined in previous posts looked at as a get out. The EU cannot back down or they will be opening the door for more exits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Ricky Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, stlucifer said: It's brinksmanship. Of that there is no doubt. She needs to make people think she would do just that. And, I agree that May's backed herself into a corner BUT the majority of her party and most of the opposition, (Corbynites, for want of a better word, excepted), feel the same. The EU know this and the fact that the backstop is almost set in stone due to the Good Friday agreement means it would be near impossible to dilute that part of the deal. I cannot see parliament allowing May to steamroller her way to a no deal. The SNP would certainly step in with a vote of no confidence and it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of Tories at least abstained with most of the labour party smelling blood. May will know this is possible and will pull back from the brink with the alternatives outlined in previous posts looked at as a get out. The EU cannot back down or they will be opening the door for more exits. You and Oaksoft have read the same books. I would slightly amend your last sentence to say that The EU cannot be seen to back down for the reason you give. The Northern Ireland position is political dynamite. NI voted to remain. The DUP would like to leave and in doing so essentially rip up the GF agreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, St.Ricky said: You and Oaksoft have read the same books. I would slightly amend your last sentence to say that The EU cannot be seen to back down for the reason you give. The Northern Ireland position is political dynamite. NI voted to remain. The DUP would like to leave and in doing so essentially rip up the GF agreement. The problem is, for the EU to not be seen to back down, they simply CAN'T back down. There is no way to make it quack like a duck without it being a duck. May's already tried this by claiming that the backstop is there but no one is going to use it. That went down like the proverbial lead balloon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TPAFKATS Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 You and Oaksoft have read the same books. I would slightly amend your last sentence to say that The EU cannot be seen to back down for the reason you give. The Northern Ireland position is political dynamite. NI voted to remain. The DUP would like to leave and in doing so essentially rip up the GF agreement. DUP got about 20% of the vote if I remember rightly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTOF Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 (edited) One of my workmates got talking to a guy on a recent flight home from Dubai to Glasgow. Turns out the guy is one of the owners of a Glasgow based company with a turnover of £90 million. He is working as part of a business advisory group on Brexit to the UK government. Apparently, May doesn't want a second referendum as it's reckoned that there will be a larger number of people voting for Brexit and that the current EU offer will be binned and a worse offer put in place. Edited January 7, 2019 by FTOF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Ricky Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said: DUP got about 20% of the vote if I remember rightly. The problem is twofold. One.. They have more seats in the NI Assembly (were it to meet) than any other party and they take up their seats at Westminster which their major opponents there don't. Added to this mix, is the fact that NI voted remain. Toxic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wendy Saintss Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 DUP got about 20% of the vote if I remember rightly. You remember wrongly. As usual. They got 36% of the vote, just slightly less than the share the SNP won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, FTOF said: One of my workmates got talking to a guy on a recent flight home from Dubai to Glasgow. Turns out the guy is one of the owners of a Glasgow based company with a turnover of £90 million. He is working as part of a business advisory group on Brexit to the UK government. Apparently, May doesn't want a second referendum as it's reckoned that there will be a larger number of people voting for Brexit and that the current EU offer will be binned and a worse offer put in place. I've heard this but, I'm not sure this would materialise. I know people talk about lack of democracy but I'm not sure it would be reflected in a vote. Given the youth of today got a bloody nose by not voting, more turning age to vote and suggestions that more exit voters are having second thoughts than those who voted to remain deciding to vote in protest, I think, and it's just my opinion, the worst case scenario is a narrow decision opposite from the last time. That's probably a worse case scenario as the leave campaigners would certainly have a case for a THIRD referendum. Talk about groundhog day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougJamie Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 hours ago, sally02 said: Getting your options mixed up there! Big Noel Edmonds fan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Wendy Saintss said: You remember wrongly. As usual. They got 36% of the vote, just slightly less than the share the SNP won. It's just over 20% if you use the Wendy system of including all those who didn't vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Ricky Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 How will your MP vote? Ours in Stirling has stated that he will vote for the Deal made by Theresa May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornwall_Saint Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 hours ago, St.Ricky said: How will your MP vote? Ours in Stirling has stated that he will vote for the Deal made by Theresa May. I imagine mine will vote against. Brexiteer Tory c**t who was one of those who stepped down from some unimportant position nobody remembers to show that he disagreed with her deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Ricky Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 30 minutes ago, Cornwall_Saint said: I imagine mine will vote against. Brexiteer Tory c**t who was one of those who stepped down from some unimportant position nobody remembers to show that he disagreed with her deal. Our constituency voted Remain but has a Tory MP (previously SNP). Now supporting May's deal. Democracy in action or Democracy gone wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintnextlifetime Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Whilst I don't usually agree with the mad professor, I think in this instance oakstur has probably called it right . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melmac Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 What, fuzzy wuzzy was a woman? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornwall_Saint Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, St.Ricky said: Our constituency voted Remain but has a Tory MP (previously SNP). Now supporting May's deal. Democracy in action or Democracy gone wrong? Cornwall was Leave and the whole county is overrun with Tory MPs. It’s fair that the MPs here will back leave (whereas I would be looking at Scottish/NI MPs to be looking at remain options). From that point on it’s purely individual what way our MP goes to either back or go against the proposed deal, his personal choice and that alone. He’s a fud anyway. So is the twat who covers St Austell and Newquay, he’s a massive fud. Tbh, all 6 of them are useless fuds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.Ricky Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, Cornwall_Saint said: Cornwall was Leave and the whole county is overrun with Tory MPs. It’s fair that the MPs here will back leave (whereas I would be looking at Scottish/NI MPs to be looking at remain options). From that point on it’s purely individual what way our MP goes to either back or go against the proposed deal, his personal choice and that alone. He’s a fud anyway. So is the twat who covers St Austell and Newquay, he’s a massive fud. Tbh, all 6 of them are useless fuds. It's not going to happen but Sinn Fein have almost as many seats in the UK parliament as the DUP but don't attend or vote but are , I believe Remain. What would happen if they did vote? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TPAFKATS Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Our constituency voted Remain but has a Tory MP (previously SNP). Now supporting May's deal. Democracy in action or Democracy gone wrong?Given that a MP is supposed to represent their constituents its not going to be democracy in action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougJamie Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 55 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said: 5 hours ago, St.Ricky said: Our constituency voted Remain but has a Tory MP (previously SNP). Now supporting May's deal. Democracy in action or Democracy gone wrong? Given that a MP is supposed to represent their constituents its not going to be democracy in action. Yeah totally considering the way Labour will vote it down where many of their constituents voted Leave .................... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 hours ago, St.Ricky said: Our constituency voted Remain but has a Tory MP (previously SNP). Now supporting May's deal. Democracy in action or Democracy gone wrong? Democracy in action. Leave won. You really need to accept this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, TPAFKATS said: 7 hours ago, St.Ricky said: Our constituency voted Remain but has a Tory MP (previously SNP). Now supporting May's deal. Democracy in action or Democracy gone wrong? Given that a MP is supposed to represent their constituents its not going to be democracy in action. Representing your constituents is not the same thing as blindly agreeing with them when the UK as a whole voted Leave. He is supporting the decision taken by the UK voters in a free referendum. You DON'T think that is a democracy in action? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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