Brexit Negotiations

[HSS]

Theresa signs on the Dole on Fri,7th June.

[Bud the Baker]

5 hours ago, saintnextlifetime said:

@Bud theBaker

 

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/05/23/uk/eu-elections-denied-my-vote-uk-gbr-intl/index.html

@saintnextlifetime 

Yeah, bad show all round although with barely two weeks between the decision to have the vote anddthe actual vote and more importantly Interstadia sending out the ballot forms it was kinda inevitable.

Surprised it wasn't flagged sooner - however it was a national election so I'll throw in a half-hearted #ToryBad! 

********************

Meanwhile now Treeeeza'a working out her notice let's hope the Tories get the UJ gear out, elect Boris as leader hastening independence - FREE BY 23!

Edited May 24, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[saintnextlifetime]

On 5/24/2019 at 12:47 PM, Bud the Baker said:

@saintnextlifetime 

Yeah, bad show all round although with barely two weeks between the decision to have the vote anddthe actual vote and more importantly Interstadia sending out the ballot forms it was kinda inevitable.

Surprised it wasn't flagged sooner - however it was a national election so I'll throw in a half-hearted #ToryBad! 

********************

Meanwhile now Treeeeza'a working out her notice let's hope the Tories get the UJ gear out, elect Boris as leader hastening independence - FREE BY 23! 

I doubt it 😋

[Bud the Baker]

14 hours ago, saintnextlifetime said:

I doubt it 😋

We will if we have any sense.

Of the 27 EU countries (excluding the UK) 8 have smaller populations than Scotland, 3 have a population similar to Scotland (between 5-6 million and a further 8 with a population less than twice what Scotland has. 

There's no reason Scotland couldn't be a couldn't be an economically successful country within the EU like say Austria, Ireland & Denmark, if you want to stay in the UK for family/sentimental reasons then fair enough but it makes no financial sense to stay as an ignored region of the UK(ip) - even Ruth Davidson said the UKs economy was too Londoncentric!

As a nation the onus is really on us to "grow a pair".

****************

Let's see what today's Euro results turn out (comparing England's with ours) and how it affects the Tory leadership election - I think the two countries are drifting apart culturally & politically my real fear is that a fiscally timid SNP removes a great deal of the incentive for independence.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[Bud the Baker]

I see in today's Herald BoJo is questioning the continued use of the Barnett formula to calculate Scotland's share of government spending - this would be another Independence Referendum promise broken!

 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

I see in today's Herald BoJo is questioning the continued use of the Barnett formula to calculate Scotland's share of government spending - this would be another Independence Referendum promise broken!
 

Bring it on.

[oaksoft]

On 5/24/2019 at 9:19 AM, Doakes said:

Politics really is becoming very polarised. 

The left seem to think anyone who disagrees with their position is a nazi and deserves to be covered in milkshake

The right seem to think that the root cause of every problem is a religion called Islam and people being "snowflakes"

Is there no one else that thinks it's all f**king stupid? Concentrating on the wrong shit if we really want to improve our quality of living

I remember it being like this in the 1980's.

Believe it or not it's only a minority of people who have these extremist views and they hardly ever make it into power.

Unfortunately social media has given a lot of idiots a voice and they seem intent on using it.

The hard core left annoy me more than anything else with their inability to argue anything without attaching the moral high ground to their arguments. That's probably because the forums I am on seem to be predominantly full of that type. No idea or interest on where the hard core right wingers are posting.

Personally I'd prefer to see a return to centre ground politics but the problem is that Tony Blair and David Cameron poisoned that particular waterhole with spin and lies so we're now having to go through a bit of nonsense before people start voting that way again in large enough numbers.

The best thing in these circumstances is to have hung parliaments to minimise the risk of either side introducing seriously damaging legislation.

Edited May 26, 2019 by oaksoft

[saintnextlifetime]

On 5/26/2019 at 8:13 AM, Bud the Baker said:

We will if we have any sense.

Of the 27 EU countries (excluding the UK) 8 have smaller populations than Scotland, 3 have a population similar to Scotland (between 5-6 million and a further 8 with a population less than twice what Scotland has. 

There's no reason Scotland couldn't be a couldn't be an economically successful country within the EU like say Austria, Ireland & Denmark, if you want to stay in the UK for family/sentimental reasons then fair enough but it makes no financial sense to stay as an ignored region of the UK(ip) - even Ruth Davidson said the UKs economy was too Londoncentric!

As a nation the onus is really on us to "grow a pair".

****************

Let's see what today's Euro results turn out (comparing England's with ours) and how it affects the Tory leadership election - I think the two countries are drifting apart culturally & politically my real fear is that a fiscally timid SNP removes a great deal of the incentive for independence.

I doubt it.  .

[Bud the Baker]

On 5/26/2019 at 8:13 AM, Bud the Baker said:

Let's see what today's Euro results turn out (comparing England's with ours) and how it affects the Tory leadership election - I think the two countries are drifting apart culturally & politically my real fear is that a fiscally timid SNP removes a great deal of the incentive for independence.

Like I said two different countries with the Brexit party winning down south but coming a distant second here with Labour losing both of their MEPs and "Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives" just hanging on to theirs. Again I maintain my opinion the RD is a "one trick pony" but I suppose she's got a "Get out of Jail Free" card for these elections.

Looking forward the main question will be how far to the right the Conservative party tacks in order to win back the Brexit vote and whether or not we have the cojones to break away from Westminster. If we want to we can stay in the EU and get a deal with rUK - does anyone really that rUK won't trade with us now (see the list of done deals below). We have nothing to fear but fear itself!!

Quote

10 out of 40

So far the UK has agreed "continuity" deals with 10 countries and regions. These are:

• Andean countries (signed 15 May)
• Norway and Iceland (2 April)
• Caribbean countries (22 March)
• Pacific Islands (14 March)
• Israel (18 February)
• Palestinian Authority (18 February)
• Switzerland (11 February)
• The Faroe Islands (1 February)
• Eastern and Southern Africa (31 January)
• Chile (30 January)

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[Bud the Baker]

Yeah this Brexit malarky is really helping us to take back control!

Quote

Donald Trump will land in the UK on Monday amid anger over comments made by his ambassador suggesting the NHS should be “on the table” in future trade negotiations.

His visit also came as cabinet ministers vying for the Tory leadership suggested they could tear up plans for the Chinese tech giant Huawei to build parts of the UK’s 5G network, after the ambassador, Woody Johnson, warned it was “a big risk”.

 

 

[insaintee]

On ‎5‎/‎24‎/‎2019 at 9:19 AM, Doakes said:

Politics really is becoming very polarised. 

The left seem to think anyone who disagrees with their position is a nazi and deserves to be covered in milkshake

The right seem to think that the root cause of every problem is a religion called Islam and people being "snowflakes"

Is there no one else that thinks it's all f**king stupid? Concentrating on the wrong shit if we really want to improve our quality of living

I'm not "on the left" but Tommy Robinson is a nazi that deserves milkshaked.

 

[Doakes]

8 minutes ago, insaintee said:

I'm not "on the left" but Tommy Robinson is a nazi that deserves milkshaked.

 

No question he's an utter bellend , don't believe lobbing milkshakes about solves anything though 

[Doakes]

35 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

Especially at the price of a feckin Five Guys milkshake.

£5-6 for a milkshake, truly mental 

Something needs to be done to combat the rising cost of milkshakes

[insaintee]

44 minutes ago, Doakes said:

No question he's an utter bellend , don't believe lobbing milkshakes about solves anything though 

But that's not quite what happened. Look at it on line. Him and his gang surrounded an asian youth to "interview" him a milkshake was the lest he deserved

[Doakes]

8 minutes ago, insaintee said:

But that's not quite what happened. Look at it on line. Him and his gang surrounded an asian youth to "interview" him a milkshake was the lest he deserved

Not too fussed about Mr Robinson as he is a prick, but I'm sure Nigel Farage got "milkshaked" also? 

Might not agree with his political stance, but that doesn't mean the guy should have to avoid low flying beverages during an election campaign  

The left need the right, and the right need the left, basic principles of democracy

Edited June 3, 2019 by Doakes

[Doakes]

26 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

More like the basic principles of geometry. 

Could go down a bit of a wormhole on that topic   

Interesting quote here, from an Irish blog, but quite relevant to UK politics at the moment!

Quote

Lifetime allegiance to one political brand is increasingly a thing of the past. Party loyalty is only borrowed, never owned. Almost overnight the political landscape can change, especially in challenging economic times. At various stages in the relatively recent past, all five main political parties or blocs have topped or almost topped the polls. How can we be so fickle? We are probably more loyal to our favourite brand of toothpaste than our preferred political party. It makes no sense that we are so fickle. Surely, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of all the policies and personalities before making our decision, but the truth is this never happens. It never happens because the amount of data we consume is too vast to analyse in depth. Instead we have developed a horribly efficient way of filtering, sorting and stacking all this data so that it can be processed with the minimum of effort. In an ideal world, voters would compile a comprehensive list of decision criteria and painstakingly score each party on all criterion, like judges in a beauty contest. In reality, some options are never considered and most criteria are given no weight in the decision. An even more uncomfortable truth is, most of the time, a party’s performance on just one or two criteria is all that matters. The fact that voters can be so one-dimensional in their thinking requires some getting used to. It helps if we think of this one-dimensionality as a problem of maths. We are more inclined to think geometrically (to a point) than algorithmically. In other words, we can grasp the concepts of distance and space, but working out complex equations in our head is beyond us. Human beings are most at home making one-dimensional evaluations. Think of a dimension as anything that may be considered relevant in an election, such as taxation policy, level of investment in public services or party leader likeability. Rating a party on any one of these dimensions is easy. It gets complicated when we are asked to consider two dimensions at the same time and to trade performance on one dimension off against performance on the other. So, for example, Party A may be marginally ahead of Party B on investment in public services but way behind on taxation policy. Which party is more appealing? It gets extremely complex when we consider that each dimension must be assigned its own level of importance, so not only do voters have to consider party ratings on each dimension but also how important each dimension is to them personally. At election time, voters are supposed to evaluate numerous parties across multiple dimensions with each dimension attracting a different level of importance. Naturally, voters run away from having to perform this type of mental gymnastics. Political Geometry. The maths and mechanics of how we make our political choices. Instead, voters unconsciously allow one critical dimension to float to the surface. This is the primary dimension and if there is a clear winner on this dimension, a voter is unlikely to dig any deeper. If too close to call, the next most important dimension will be the decider. Rarely does a voter need to rummage around in the third dimension to find an answer. The fourth dimension is the stuff of science fiction.

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by Doakes

[Bud the Baker]

Treeeeeza'a abandoned any plans to progress with Brexit legislation during what's left of her tenure, which means our recently elected MEPs will take up their seats on July 2nd. 

The Tory leadership race is expected to be down to the final 2 by June 20th, followed by a postal vote which is expected to last a month taking us up to Westminster's summer holidays (late July - early September) which then runs into the Party Conference season and early October and after that it's back to the ticking clock scenario. 

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

Treeeeeza'a abandoned any plans to progress with Brexit legislation during what's left of her tenure, which means our recently elected MEPs will take up their seats on July 2nd. 

The Tory leadership race is expected to be down to the final 2 by June 20th, followed by a postal vote which is expected to last a month taking us up to Westminster's summer holidays (late July - early September) which then runs into the Party Conference season and early October and after that it's back to the ticking clock scenario. 

 

Esther McVey's plan is not to bring any Brexit legislation back to the Commons at all.

Her view is that we invoked Article 50, it's done, no votes are required and we leave on whatever date was agreed in October. It's certainly a bold opinion.

In the meantime, Corbyn's view seems to be that he won't back another referendum which includes Remain because he thinks that would be an insult to the Working Classes who voted for Brexit and he sees them as his core vote. 30 years ago, this idea might have worked but given that it's centrist middle classes who vote in the largest numbers in General Elections, I can't see that working now.

The dark horses are the Lib Dems. They are now the only credible centrist party who could logistically win a General Election. The introduction of the Brexit party looks likely to break the Tories or at least split the right wing vote. Labour are looking at an open goal but don't seem inclined to want to score by grabbing the centre ground. It also looks like the SNP are ready to start sweeping the boards in Scotland again - a remarkable feat for a party after 12 years in power.

To break the Brexit Party, the Tories will be desperate to get Brexit done and dusted, hence the talk from candidates about a No-Deal, because they can't get any deal through Parliament. If push comes to shove they'll bypass Parliament altogether I think. I'm not sure they have much in the way of choice. If that happens, I can see the case for independence swinging in favour of Yes.

It's shaping up to be an interesting few years but we could be at the end of two party politics in the UK.

Edited June 4, 2019 by oaksoft

[Bud the Baker]

19 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Esther McVey's plan is not to bring any Brexit legislation back to the Commons at all.

Her view is that we invoked Article 50, it's done, no votes are required and we leave on whatever date was agreed in October. It's certainly a bold opinion.

In the meantime, Corbyn's view seems to be that he won't back another referendum which includes Remain because he thinks that would be an insult to the Working Classes who voted for Brexit and he sees them as his core vote. 30 years ago, this idea might have worked but given that it's centrist middle classes who vote in the largest numbers in General Elections, I can't see that working now.

The dark horses are the Lib Dems. They are now the only credible centrist party who could logistically win a General Election. The introduction of the Brexit party looks likely to break the Tories or at least split the right wing vote. Labour are looking at an open goal but don't seem inclined to want to score by grabbing the centre ground. It also looks like the SNP are ready to start sweeping the boards in Scotland again - a remarkable feat for a party after 12 years in power.

To break the Brexit Party, the Tories will be desperate to get Brexit done and dusted, hence the talk from candidates about a No-Deal, because they can't get any deal through Parliament. If push comes to shove they'll bypass Parliament altogether I think. I'm not sure they have much in the way of choice. If that happens, I can see the case for independence swinging in favour of Yes.

It's shaping up to be an interesting few years but we could be at the end of two party politics in the UK.

Yeah there is a real possibility of the Conservative/Labour duopoly being shattered at the next GE.

A minor quibble - did the working class "oop north"  vote for Brexit to a greater extent than the Tory supporters in the Shires (Hobbits for a WTO Brexit!)? I know it's the popular analysis but I reckon a Labour Leader who formed his political convictions post-Thatcher would do better for Labour than Corbyn who has definitely passed his "Glasto2017 Seven Army Nation" peak. The Tories are continuing to tack towards Nigel - if he was eligible he'd be a shoo-in! 

Change UK has already lost it's momentum with 6 of it's MPs resigning and hinting at joining the LibDems.

In a FPTP system I think the UK will eventually return to a two party system but the identity and political nature of these two parties is currently uncertain.

*****************

As the Chinese proverb says "May you live in interesting times".

Edited June 5, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[Bud the Baker]

 

Quote

A Tory leadership candidate says his competitors' claims they could negotiate a new Brexit deal before 31 October are "misleading".

The EU set the date for the UK's exit after MPs rejected Theresa May's deal.

Some candidates say they can agree a new plan by the deadline, but Rory Stewart said there was "not a hope".

Rory Stewart went to Dragon School! 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

The lib dems could win a general election 🤣

[BuddieinEK]

The lib dems could win a general election 🤣

I wouldn't bet your luncheon vouchers on it if I were you!
[emoji12]

[Guest TPAFKATS]

I wouldn't bet your luncheon vouchers on it if I were you!
[emoji12]

Oh I won't. oaksoft might though, it's his observation. I couldn't be arsed quoting the whole lengthy post.

[Cornwall_Saint]

The one thing we can be sure of is that the existence of the Brexit Party means the Tories won’t risk calling a snap GE as they fine well know that until Brexit is complete, they would be decimated at a GE. Once Brexit is done and dusted the Brexit Party will become an irrelevance.

[melmac]

Wales votes for Brexit: - Ford Bridgend: Closure fears for town's engine plant

You reap what you sow?