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Bud the Baker

Brexit Negotiations

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8 minutes ago, insaintee said:

I'm not "on the left" but Tommy Robinson is a nazi that deserves milkshaked.

 

No question he's an utter bellend , don't believe lobbing milkshakes about solves anything though 

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35 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

Especially at the price of a feckin Five Guys milkshake.

£5-6 for a milkshake, truly mental :death

Something needs to be done to combat the rising cost of milkshakes

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44 minutes ago, Doakes said:

No question he's an utter bellend , don't believe lobbing milkshakes about solves anything though 

But that's not quite what happened. Look at it on line. Him and his gang surrounded an asian youth to "interview" him a milkshake was the lest he deserved

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8 minutes ago, insaintee said:

But that's not quite what happened. Look at it on line. Him and his gang surrounded an asian youth to "interview" him a milkshake was the lest he deserved

Not too fussed about Mr Robinson as he is a prick, but I'm sure Nigel Farage got "milkshaked" also? 

Might not agree with his political stance, but that doesn't mean the guy should have to avoid low flying beverages during an election campaign :lol: 

The left need the right, and the right need the left, basic principles of democracy

Edited by Doakes

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1 hour ago, Doakes said:

Not too fussed about Mr Robinson as he is a prick, but I'm sure Nigel Farage got "milkshaked" also? 

Might not agree with his political stance, but that doesn't mean the guy should have to avoid low flying beverages during an election campaign :lol: 

The left need the right, and the right need the left, basic principles of democracy

More like the basic principles of geometry. :P

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26 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

More like the basic principles of geometry. :P

Could go down a bit of a wormhole on that topic  :lol: :ph34r:

Interesting quote here, from an Irish blog, but quite relevant to UK politics at the moment!

Quote

Lifetime allegiance to one political brand is increasingly a thing of the past. Party loyalty is only borrowed, never owned. Almost overnight the political landscape can change, especially in challenging economic times. At various stages in the relatively recent past, all five main political parties or blocs have topped or almost topped the polls. How can we be so fickle? We are probably more loyal to our favourite brand of toothpaste than our preferred political party. It makes no sense that we are so fickle. Surely, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of all the policies and personalities before making our decision, but the truth is this never happens. It never happens because the amount of data we consume is too vast to analyse in depth. Instead we have developed a horribly efficient way of filtering, sorting and stacking all this data so that it can be processed with the minimum of effort. In an ideal world, voters would compile a comprehensive list of decision criteria and painstakingly score each party on all criterion, like judges in a beauty contest. In reality, some options are never considered and most criteria are given no weight in the decision. An even more uncomfortable truth is, most of the time, a party’s performance on just one or two criteria is all that matters. The fact that voters can be so one-dimensional in their thinking requires some getting used to. It helps if we think of this one-dimensionality as a problem of maths. We are more inclined to think geometrically (to a point) than algorithmically. In other words, we can grasp the concepts of distance and space, but working out complex equations in our head is beyond us. Human beings are most at home making one-dimensional evaluations. Think of a dimension as anything that may be considered relevant in an election, such as taxation policy, level of investment in public services or party leader likeability. Rating a party on any one of these dimensions is easy. It gets complicated when we are asked to consider two dimensions at the same time and to trade performance on one dimension off against performance on the other. So, for example, Party A may be marginally ahead of Party B on investment in public services but way behind on taxation policy. Which party is more appealing? It gets extremely complex when we consider that each dimension must be assigned its own level of importance, so not only do voters have to consider party ratings on each dimension but also how important each dimension is to them personally. At election time, voters are supposed to evaluate numerous parties across multiple dimensions with each dimension attracting a different level of importance. Naturally, voters run away from having to perform this type of mental gymnastics. Political Geometry. The maths and mechanics of how we make our political choices. Instead, voters unconsciously allow one critical dimension to float to the surface. This is the primary dimension and if there is a clear winner on this dimension, a voter is unlikely to dig any deeper. If too close to call, the next most important dimension will be the decider. Rarely does a voter need to rummage around in the third dimension to find an answer. The fourth dimension is the stuff of science fiction.

 

Edited by Doakes

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Treeeeeza'a abandoned any plans to progress with Brexit legislation during what's left of her tenure, which means our recently elected MEPs will take up their seats on July 2nd. :hammer

The Tory leadership race is expected to be down to the final 2 by June 20th, followed by a postal vote which is expected to last a month taking us up to Westminster's summer holidays (late July - early September) which then runs into the Party Conference season and early October and after that it's back to the ticking clock scenario. :toilet

 

Edited by Bud the Baker

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1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

Treeeeeza'a abandoned any plans to progress with Brexit legislation during what's left of her tenure, which means our recently elected MEPs will take up their seats on July 2nd. :hammer

The Tory leadership race is expected to be down to the final 2 by June 20th, followed by a postal vote which is expected to last a month taking us up to Westminster's summer holidays (late July - early September) which then runs into the Party Conference season and early October and after that it's back to the ticking clock scenario. :toilet

 

Esther McVey's plan is not to bring any Brexit legislation back to the Commons at all.

Her view is that we invoked Article 50, it's done, no votes are required and we leave on whatever date was agreed in October. It's certainly a bold opinion.

In the meantime, Corbyn's view seems to be that he won't back another referendum which includes Remain because he thinks that would be an insult to the Working Classes who voted for Brexit and he sees them as his core vote. 30 years ago, this idea might have worked but given that it's centrist middle classes who vote in the largest numbers in General Elections, I can't see that working now.

The dark horses are the Lib Dems. They are now the only credible centrist party who could logistically win a General Election. The introduction of the Brexit party looks likely to break the Tories or at least split the right wing vote. Labour are looking at an open goal but don't seem inclined to want to score by grabbing the centre ground. It also looks like the SNP are ready to start sweeping the boards in Scotland again - a remarkable feat for a party after 12 years in power.

To break the Brexit Party, the Tories will be desperate to get Brexit done and dusted, hence the talk from candidates about a No-Deal, because they can't get any deal through Parliament. If push comes to shove they'll bypass Parliament altogether I think. I'm not sure they have much in the way of choice. If that happens, I can see the case for independence swinging in favour of Yes.

It's shaping up to be an interesting few years but we could be at the end of two party politics in the UK.

Edited by oaksoft

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19 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Esther McVey's plan is not to bring any Brexit legislation back to the Commons at all.

Her view is that we invoked Article 50, it's done, no votes are required and we leave on whatever date was agreed in October. It's certainly a bold opinion.

In the meantime, Corbyn's view seems to be that he won't back another referendum which includes Remain because he thinks that would be an insult to the Working Classes who voted for Brexit and he sees them as his core vote. 30 years ago, this idea might have worked but given that it's centrist middle classes who vote in the largest numbers in General Elections, I can't see that working now.

The dark horses are the Lib Dems. They are now the only credible centrist party who could logistically win a General Election. The introduction of the Brexit party looks likely to break the Tories or at least split the right wing vote. Labour are looking at an open goal but don't seem inclined to want to score by grabbing the centre ground. It also looks like the SNP are ready to start sweeping the boards in Scotland again - a remarkable feat for a party after 12 years in power.

To break the Brexit Party, the Tories will be desperate to get Brexit done and dusted, hence the talk from candidates about a No-Deal, because they can't get any deal through Parliament. If push comes to shove they'll bypass Parliament altogether I think. I'm not sure they have much in the way of choice. If that happens, I can see the case for independence swinging in favour of Yes.

It's shaping up to be an interesting few years but we could be at the end of two party politics in the UK.

Yeah there is a real possibility of the Conservative/Labour duopoly being shattered at the next GE.

A minor quibble - did the working class "oop north"  vote for Brexit to a greater extent than the Tory supporters in the Shires (Hobbits for a WTO Brexit!)? I know it's the popular analysis but I reckon a Labour Leader who formed his political convictions post-Thatcher would do better for Labour than Corbyn who has definitely passed his "Glasto2017 Seven Army Nation" peak. The Tories are continuing to tack towards Nigel - if he was eligible he'd be a shoo-in! 

Change UK has already lost it's momentum with 6 of it's MPs resigning and hinting at joining the LibDems.

In a FPTP system I think the UK will eventually return to a two party system but the identity and political nature of these two parties is currently uncertain.

*****************

As the Chinese proverb says "May you live in interesting times".

Edited by Bud the Baker

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Quote

A Tory leadership candidate says his competitors' claims they could negotiate a new Brexit deal before 31 October are "misleading".

The EU set the date for the UK's exit after MPs rejected Theresa May's deal.

Some candidates say they can agree a new plan by the deadline, but Rory Stewart said there was "not a hope".

Rory Stewart went to Dragon School! 

Zog (Hardback)

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The one thing we can be sure of is that the existence of the Brexit Party means the Tories won’t risk calling a snap GE as they fine well know that until Brexit is complete, they would be decimated at a GE. Once Brexit is done and dusted the Brexit Party will become an irrelevance.

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9 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

The lib dems could win a general election 🤣

People used to laugh at the idea of the SNP doing that at Holyrood.

They used to laugh at the idea of the SNP taking more than a few MPs to Westminster.

They used to laugh at the idea of Labour totally collapsing in Scotland.

If we go into another GE with Brexit still unresolved and the Brexit party, Tories and Labour all rejecting another EU referendum, the Lib Dems will be the only credible party involved in all UK constituency votes supporting another referendum. Let's just see shall we?

Edited by oaksoft

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8 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:
9 hours ago, BuddieinEK said:
I wouldn't bet your luncheon vouchers on it if I were you!
emoji12.png

Oh I won't. oaksoft might though, it's his observation. I couldn't be arsed quoting the whole lengthy post.

I honestly can't remember when you last made a constructive post on here.

You have a lot to say about other people.

Feel free to enlighten us all with your brilliant insights into what's going on.

Edited by oaksoft

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2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

People used to laugh at the idea of the SNP doing that at Holyrood.

They used to laugh at the idea of the SNP taking more than a few MPs to Westminster.

They used to laugh at the idea of Labour totally collapsing in Scotland.

If we go into another GE with Brexit still unresolved and the Brexit party, Tories and Labour all rejecting another EU referendum, the Lib Dems will be the only credible party involved in all UK constituency votes supporting another referendum. Let's just see shall we?

Anyone who argues with this logic isn't living in the real world. The Lib Dem, along with the greens who will undoubtedly steal some of the labour votes too, ARE the only credible parties outside England for those who demand a second chance. People need to remember the split between "outs and ins" is almost 50/50.

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Anyone who argues with this logic isn't living in the real world. The Lib Dem, along with the greens who will undoubtedly steal some of the labour votes too, ARE the only credible parties outside England for those who demand a second chance. People need to remember the split between "outs and ins" is almost 50/50.
"outside England"?

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1 hour ago, Slartibartfast said:
3 hours ago, stlucifer said:
Anyone who argues with this logic isn't living in the real world. The Lib Dem, along with the greens who will undoubtedly steal some of the labour votes too, ARE the only credible parties outside England for those who demand a second chance. People need to remember the split between "outs and ins" is almost 50/50.

"outside England"?

He meant Scotland I think.

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3 hours ago, stlucifer said:

Anyone who argues with this logic isn't living in the real world. The Lib Dem, along with the greens who will undoubtedly steal some of the labour votes too, ARE the only credible parties outside England for those who demand a second chance. People need to remember the split between "outs and ins" is almost 50/50.

Exactly.

And of course we have no idea how strong the Remain vote is.

If the EU is the big decider for people at the next GE, things could get very interesting.

People who can't see more than 6 inches from their own noses, usually because they are too busy laughing at others, always seem to get surprised when things like this happen. That's a lesson I'd pass onto my younger self BTW.

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I honestly can't remember when you last made a constructive post on here.
You have a lot to say about other people.
Feel free to enlighten us all with your brilliant insights into what's going on.
You've just confused me with you. Too much self reflection Mr Pot?

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People used to laugh at the idea of the SNP doing that at Holyrood.
They used to laugh at the idea of the SNP taking more than a few MPs to Westminster.
They used to laugh at the idea of Labour totally collapsing in Scotland.
If we go into another GE with Brexit still unresolved and the Brexit party, Tories and Labour all rejecting another EU referendum, the Lib Dems will be the only credible party involved in all UK constituency votes supporting another referendum. Let's just see shall we?
Lib Dems have 12 mps in this parliament. To win the next election they'll need to get over 300. That's not happening.
The Labour vote ain't swinging to them by enough in hundreds of seats. Tories who don't vote tory will vote brexit party if they stand.

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More people voted on the online petition to revoke Article 50 than voted for the Brexit Party......

Now that means thats most want us to stay, or more than likely, most are lazy bastards who cant be arsed going to a polling station .....................

 

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