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Mosul recaptured - what next?


Bud the Baker

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43 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

 


Depends what you class as stability.

 

stability
stəˈbɪlɪti/
noun
noun: stability
  1. the state of being stable.
    "there are fears for the political stability of the area"
    synonyms: firmness, solidity, steadiness, secureness, strength, fastness, stoutness, sturdiness, security, safety More
    "parents should check the stability of play equipment"
    balance, balance of mind, mental health, soundness, rationality, reason, lucidity, lucidness, sense, sanity, saneness, right-mindedness
    "doubts were raised regarding his mental stability"
    steadiness, firmness, sureness, secureness, solidity, strength, durability, lasting nature, enduring nature, constancy, permanence, changelessness, invariability, immutability, indestructibility, reliability, dependability;
    rarelastingness, perdurability, perenniality, imperishability, inalterability, unchangeableness, unchangeability
    "the stability of their relationship"
Origin
Middle English: from Old French stablete, from Latin stabilitas, from stabilis ‘stable’.
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  • 6 months later...

Six months on and I thought I'd see what happened next - allegations of atrocities by the Iraqi army upon recapturing Mosul and as the anti-ISIS alliance fragmented the same Iraqi forces retook the oil-rich province of Kirkuk from the Kurds amidst further allegations of atrocities. 

Things really seem to be improving for the people of the region. 

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  • 1 year later...

I note Channel4 News is leading tonight's program with news of the US decision to pull more troops out of Northern Syria leaving Turkey free to resume their long-standing war against the Kurds.

The Kurds were an integral part of the fight against ISIS but with friends like Trump they certainly don't need enemies......

Edited by Bud the Baker
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I note Channel4 News is leading tonight's program with news of the US decision to pull more troops out of Northern Syria leaving Turkey free to resume their long-standing war against the Kurds.
The Kurds were an integral part of the fight against ISIS but with friends like Trump they certainly don't need enemies......


Trump did say he wanted to take his troops out, nothing wrong with that. I suggest the UN send Peacekeepers in and set up a buffer zone, I don’t believe Johnny Turk will go into Syria if there’s a UN presence.
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43 minutes ago, Russian Saint said:

Trump did say he wanted to take his troops out, nothing wrong with that. I suggest the UN send Peacekeepers in and set up a buffer zone, I don’t believe Johnny Turk will go into Syria if there’s a UN presence.

 

Even if it wasn't a bit late in the day (with US troops already pulling out) to advocate for a UN Peacekeeping Force it would require Russian approval (all 5 permanent members of the Security Council have a veto) - as our resident expert on that country what do you reckon the chances are of getting said approval?

Edited by Bud the Baker
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Even if it wasn't a bit late in the day (with US troops already pulling out) to advocate for a UN Peacekeeping Force it would require Russian approval (all 5 permanent members of the Security Council have a veto) - as our resident expert on that country what do you reckon the chances are of getting said approval?


I’ll give a Vlad a call. I don’t see any logical reason why Russia would object, do you?
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Other than Russia traditionally regarding Syria as part of their "sphere of influence" no.


So what’s your solution then Bud?

I believe that Turkey want to set up a 30 mile buffer zone so that they (Turkey) can start sending some of the 3 million refugees back to Syria.
America has less than 1000 service personnel in Syria, which are not all combat personnel.
Russia also has troops in Syria, so if Turkey do get heavy handed then the chances are it’ll escalate.
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26 minutes ago, Russian Saint said:

So what’s your solution then Bud?


I believe that Turkey want to set up a 30 mile buffer zone so that they (Turkey) can start sending some of the 3 million refugees back to Syria.
America has less than 1000 service personnel in Syria, which are not all combat personnel.
Russia also has troops in Syria, so if Turkey do get heavy handed then the chances are it’ll escalate.

 

Any solution would have had to start with the removal of Assad but that already looks too late with Putin already flexing his muscles - the US withdrawing their troops at this stage and the prospect of potential genocide if Turkey does send 3 million refugees back to Assad is depressing - perhaps the US could've linked their withdrawal to Assad being pensioned off to Saudi Arabia. Like I said in the opening post regarding Mosul - the US pulling out prematurely while everyone else retains their arms and their grudges just leads to more slaughter in the region and exacerbates the terrorist situation generally.

Edited by Bud the Baker
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Any solution would have had to start with the removal of Assad but that already looks too late with Putin already flexing his muscles - the US withdrawing their troops at this stage and the prospect of potential genocide if Turkey does send 3 million refugees back to Assad is depressing - perhaps the US could've linked their withdrawal to Assad being pensioned off to Saudi Arabia. Like I said in the opening post regarding Mosul - the US pulling out prematurely while everyone else retains their arms and their grudges just leads to more slaughter in the region and exacerbates the terrorist situation generally.


As Assad is a Shia Muslim (hence the backing from Iran) going to Saudi is a non starter.
The US had no U.N. mandate to be in Syria, nor approval from the Syrian government.

Going back through to the times of Assad’s father’s rule, there was between 20% to 25% of the population were non Muslim with Damascus having a large Syrian Christian and Syrian Jewish population, Assad protected minority ethnic groups and Syria was a more “Western” country as compared to the likes of Saudi.
Regime change in Syria will never happen and if it does it’ll be an Iranian backed Shia puppet as the Sunni’s are in the minority.
I’m sure I read that Sunni’s returning or wanting to return must pledge allegiance to Assad or they won’t be allowed back, but I’d need to check up on that.
If peace is to come back to Syria then Assad must work with the U.N. and neighboring countries including Israel, but I believe Russia could have the biggest influence assisting Syria to get back on its feet.

It could be argued that Middle Eastern and North African Muslim countries were/are ruled by tyranny and in my opinion it’ll be very hard to change that tribal and religious mindset............ but that’s another debate entirely.
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35 minutes ago, Russian Saint said:

 


As Assad is a Shia Muslim (hence the backing from Iran) going to Saudi is a non starter.
The US had no U.N. mandate to be in Syria, nor approval from the Syrian government.

Going back through to the times of Assad’s father’s rule, there was between 20% to 25% of the population were non Muslim with Damascus having a large Syrian Christian and Syrian Jewish population, Assad protected minority ethnic groups and Syria was a more “Western” country as compared to the likes of Saudi.
Regime change in Syria will never happen and if it does it’ll be an Iranian backed Shia puppet as the Sunni’s are in the minority.
I’m sure I read that Sunni’s returning or wanting to return must pledge allegiance to Assad or they won’t be allowed back, but I’d need to check up on that.
If peace is to come back to Syria then Assad must work with the U.N. and neighboring countries including Israel, but I believe Russia could have the biggest influence assisting Syria to get back on its feet.

It could be argued that Middle Eastern and North African Muslim countries were/are ruled by tyranny and in my opinion it’ll be very hard to change that tribal and religious mindset............ but that’s another debate entirely.

 

I had forgotten that however I'm sure there would be a country somewhere in the region prepared not to be sniffy if the rumours about how much the family have salted away since his father came to power (what must be 50 years ago now) are true..

You are right there are no easy answers, but Trump's current strategy has got to be acknowledged as being poor.

Edited by Bud the Baker
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I had forgotten that however I'm sure there would be a country somewhere in the region prepared not to be sniffy if the rumours about how much the family have salted away since his father came to power (what must be 50 years ago now) are true..
You are right there are no easy answers, but Trump's current strategy has got to be acknowledged as being poor.


Part of Trump’s presidential campaign was to bring the troops home, he’s now doing that. He’s also stated that he doesn’t want US troops to be the worlds policemen........ I can’t blame him for that. The US has been slated in previous years for being too keen to get involved in other countries issues (Probably one of the reasons John Bolton got his P45) but they’re now being slated by many (even Republicans) for withdrawing troops.
Yup, no doubt Assad skimmed off a good few millions, but that seems endemic with countries of that ilk (Middle East and North, Central and East African) Gaddafi, Hussein etc.
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3 minutes ago, Russian Saint said:

Part of Trump’s presidential campaign was to bring the troops home, he’s now doing that. He’s also stated that he doesn’t want US troops to be the worlds policemen........ I can’t blame him for that. The US has been slated in previous years for being too keen to get involved in other countries issues (Probably one of the reasons John Bolton got his P45) but they’re now being slated by many (even Republicans) for withdrawing troops.

Yup, no doubt Assad skimmed off a good few millions, but that seems endemic with countries of that ilk (Middle East and North, Central and East African) Gaddafi, Hussein etc.

 

Yeah, I kinda understand I want to have my cake and eat it on this subject but just about every move America has made in the region for the past 25-30 years seems to have worsened the situation - oh for another peacemaker like Henry Kissinger...….

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Yeah, I kinda understand I want to have my cake and eat it on this subject but just about every move America has made in the region for the past 25-30 years seems to have worsened the situation - oh for another peacemaker like Henry Kissinger...….


Totally agree regarding previous US administrations (Republican or Democrat) meddling in foreign countries mainly for their own benefit.
No easy fix but but if Assad were to be removed I believe we’d have another Libyan situation on our hands. As much as I’d like the Middle East to sort out their own problems, I don’t think they’re capable.
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I’m also torn about the White House nutter, due to being impressed by Trump’s declarations pre election that he’d try to remove US from its overseas belligerent interventions. And his intent to create more work, in America for Americans.

He is continuing to try to do those things. Politicians are seldom so consistent with their promises.

I guess it could only be a deranged individual with no regard for morality, decency, reality that would keep on head-butting his way through The Swamp, as he describes it.

It’s entertainment with some laughs, but it also scares and depresses.

Dr Strangelove comes to mind - no happy ending for anyone or the planet.  :(

 

 

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Assad needs to stay, because the alternative (ISIS, other extreme nutjobs) will worsen the situation.

The whole point of the operation was to remove Assad as he doesn’t bow down to the wishes of the US. The US thankfully have failed in this, because an ISIS/extremist run Syria would be disastrous.

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13 minutes ago, Cornwall_Saint said:

Assad needs to stay, because the alternative (ISIS, other extreme nutjobs) will worsen the situation.

The whole point of the operation was to remove Assad as he doesn’t bow down to the wishes of the US. The US thankfully have failed in this, because an ISIS/extremist run Syria would be disastrous.

Thank God parliament voted down the vote to support the US on a invasion. What a mess that would have been. 

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I’m also torn about the White House nutter, due to being impressed by Trump’s declarations pre election that he’d try to remove US from its overseas belligerent interventions. And his intent to create more work, in America for Americans.
He is continuing to try to do those things. Politicians are seldom so consistent with their promises.
I guess it could only be a deranged individual with no regard for morality, decency, reality that would keep on head-butting his way through The Swamp, as he describes it.
It’s entertainment with some laughs, but it also scares and depresses.
Dr Strangelove comes to mind - no happy ending for anyone or the planet.  [emoji20]
 
 


I agree with what you’re saying with regards that Trump is trying to deliver on his presidential campaign promises. Personally I didn’t know a great deal about Trump apart from his business empire (which I knew in name only) and he was on the American version of the Apprentice.
Now. When you look at the antics of the opposition, it’s like they get up each morning and think of ways to get him removed from office. That’s probably because the Democrats don’t have anyone to compete with him.

I actually respect him for what he’s trying to do with regards to,

• America first.
• Removing troops out of countries his predecessors got the US involved in.
• Illegal immigration.
• Ripping up the trade deal with China as its alleged it was all in their favour. Maybe that’s why the Bidens received 1.6 billion if true.

It’s hard to take him serious at times (mainly because of that haircut) He’s not the best speaker and he has made a few howlers, I don’t believe he’d be a strong debater as he’s not from the typical presidential stock.
He’s not a typical politician because that was never his background, he’s a very successful businessman and very bullish which is probably why he doesn’t take any shit.
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Guest TPAFKATS
Assad needs to stay, because the alternative (ISIS, other extreme nutjobs) will worsen the situation.
The whole point of the operation was to remove Assad as he doesn’t bow down to the wishes of the US. The US thankfully have failed in this, because an ISIS/extremist run Syria would be disastrous.
Just like Libya?
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Guest TPAFKATS


I agree with what you’re saying with regards that Trump is trying to deliver on his presidential campaign promises. Personally I didn’t know a great deal about Trump apart from his business empire (which I knew in name only) and he was on the American version of the Apprentice.
Now. When you look at the antics of the opposition, it’s like they get up each morning and think of ways to get him removed from office. That’s probably because the Democrats don’t have anyone to compete with him.

I actually respect him for what he’s trying to do with regards to,

• America first.
• Removing troops out of countries his predecessors got the US involved in.
• Illegal immigration.
• Ripping up the trade deal with China as its alleged it was all in their favour. Maybe that’s why the Bidens received 1.6 billion if true.

It’s hard to take him serious at times (mainly because of that haircut) He’s not the best speaker and he has made a few howlers, I don’t believe he’d be a strong debater as he’s not from the typical presidential stock.
He’s not a typical politician because that was never his background, he’s a very successful businessman and very bullish which is probably why he doesn’t take any shit.
For me its not the haircut, I struggle to see past him being a psychopathic racist with the mental capacity of a small child.
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1 hour ago, TPAFKATS said:
5 hours ago, Cornwall_Saint said:
Assad needs to stay, because the alternative (ISIS, other extreme nutjobs) will worsen the situation.
The whole point of the operation was to remove Assad as he doesn’t bow down to the wishes of the US. The US thankfully have failed in this, because an ISIS/extremist run Syria would be disastrous.

Just like Libya?

Exactly like Libya, the country has been f**ked since Gaddafi’s removal.

1 hour ago, Russian Saint said:

Now. When you look at the antics of the opposition, it’s like they get up each morning and think of ways to get him removed from office. That’s probably because the Democrats don’t have anyone to compete with him.

 

The sad thing is the Dems did have someone who would have wiped the floor with Trump - Bernie Sanders. He was always polling stronger than Clinton in H2Hs against Trump. Unfortunately, the Dems did all possible to make sure Queen Clinton got in, as proven by the hacked emails. The “Superdelegate” pish meant Bernie never stood a chance.

If they had done things the right way Bernie would be president right now. Unfortunately Clinton is that corrupt and that much of a cow lifelong Dems ended up voting Trump as the best of two awful choices.

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