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Moneyball Model


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5 minutes ago, magnus said:

Great movie. Will need to download it again.  

I’d say the book is far more interesting, although a decent ‘hungover Sunday’ film! 

On this, i think we will be looking at the model developed by Brentford. Seems to have done not too bad for them recently...

 

Brentford article

Edited by aldo_j
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7 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

:toilet

F Man.  The post was in reaction to the suggestion at the SMISA Q and  A that we will be using a stats based approach but final say would be after live viewings. 

I take it you don't  like the approach... Or do I have that wrong? 

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35 minutes ago, St.Ricky said:

We don't have more money than other teams.  We don't have a bigger stadium than other teams in our league. So how can we transform our fortunes?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball_(film)

So what film are we basing our fortunes on?

1) Escape to Victory. or

2) A shot at Glory  :P

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1 hour ago, chalky1 said:

Back on track, a lot of british clubs are now using the stats from games like Football Manager before scouting players as this is seen as being very realistic with its stats on players

This also ties in neatly to Sports Science where stats and information gathered can then be used by the manager and coaches to impact on both individuals and the team both physically and emotionally.

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For any Team in Scotland to have a chance of winning the Top League they will have to go down the Celtic or Sevco route.

So simple.

Make of that what you will.

I don't really need to spell it out for you.

Do I ?

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8 minutes ago, cockles1987 said:

Go on then. It's either that or some other pish you'll be posting anyways. emoji14.png

No need. 

It's easy to work out.

A brilliant model that has worked for well over a Century.

You could probably post my thoughts, word for word. :thumbs2

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16 minutes ago, MenstrieSaint said:

Thing is Ricky , I'm not convinced percentage of accurate passes should be considered a positive , it just evidences a player passes backwards a lot . Key contributions for goals and goals scored though would be a great way to identify attacking midfielders and strikers . 

Menstrie. I take your point. I guess it can only ever be a starting point but might cut countless hours spent travelling.

I'm pleased that the point was made by OK that any players identified would be watched in action before any move was made.

Also agree that assists and goals scored are vital stats.

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1 hour ago, MenstrieSaint said:

Thing is Ricky , I'm not convinced percentage of accurate passes should be considered a positive , it just evidences a player passes backwards a lot . Key contributions for goals and goals scored though would be a great way to identify attacking midfielders and strikers . 

Depends on the style of play you want the team to play under and the position you are talking about. Jack's teams overall conceded lots of possession on the basis that we would attack with real purpose and the initial transfer from defence into attack would be swift and accurate, so for S McGinn and Magennis accuracy would be more important than it would for say Reilly.

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1 hour ago, MenstrieSaint said:

Thing is Ricky , I'm not convinced percentage of accurate passes should be considered a positive , it just evidences a player passes backwards a lot . Key contributions for goals and goals scored though would be a great way to identify attacking midfielders and strikers . 

I think the stats will be a lot more detailed than that. Stats will no doubt be available on passes forward, passes in the final third, passes identified as key passes, among others. Also on pressing stats, distance covered, aerial duels won - the list is long of the stats that will be used to assess players, with different stats important for different positions, and for different styles of play. The other thing to note is that these stats won't be used to sign players, only to identify them - they will be monitored and watched in addition to this.

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On ‎11‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 11:24 AM, MenstrieSaint said:

I like the model and the use of statistics , but on top of that we need to agree an effective formation and style of play , then get the players in to suit the system.

Baseball is a series of plays pitcher (& fielders) vs batter whereas football is a fluid game with (in theory) all 22 players involved at all times.

Like you say stats are part of the picture (sic) but there are many other factors in football.

 

Edited by Bud the Baker
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8 hours ago, Soctty said:

I think the stats will be a lot more detailed than that. Stats will no doubt be available on passes forward, passes in the final third, passes identified as key passes, among others. Also on pressing stats, distance covered, aerial duels won - the list is long of the stats that will be used to assess players, with different stats important for different positions, and for different styles of play. The other thing to note is that these stats won't be used to sign players, only to identify them - they will be monitored and watched in addition to this.

You are right.  Other posters have also,  in my opinion,  also correctly pointed out that you also need to decide on a form of play which existing and new players will be using. 

 

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9 hours ago, shull said:

What a fecking snoozefest already. 

Just get the ball up the park as quickly as possible and despatch the fecker into the net. 

Thing is though Shull, you need a player or two to get the ball up the park and then someone to put the ball in the net. Hence what style of football being played , stats etc are now considered as identifying players. Not a big fan of this but accept it is now part of the process

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On ‎11‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 12:53 PM, MenstrieSaint said:

Thing is Ricky , I'm not convinced percentage of accurate passes should be considered a positive , it just evidences a player passes backwards a lot . Key contributions for goals and goals scored though would be a great way to identify attacking midfielders and strikers . 

Indeed.

For example, Leicester City won the Premiership despite having one of the lowest possession stats and one of the least accurate successful passing completion rates.

Its not all about being great on the ball all the time. Ryan Edwards haters take note.

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Statistics tell you nothing about mood swings, player personalities, how each player will fit in with the different players at your specific club, how they respond to your man management skills, how they will respond to your training schedules, how they will react to being subbed in a crucial game, how they react when they have problems at home, how resilient they are to playing with weaker players around them when you lose a goal at home, how their personal habits will be received by your own players, how quickly they will recover from a bad result or a specific injury, whether they are positive or negative influences around the club or whether they fancy playing in rain on a Tuesday night away to Arbroath at Christmas time when their families are hundreds of miles away.

In short, any statistics driven program is yet more expensive shite which tries to reduce a player to that of a robot with a set of Top Trump fixed attributes which you are told will allow you to simply select the correct lpayer for your club. Humans personalities do not fit into nice like boxes and any attempts to do so are simply flawed. Most of the biggest companies in the world use psychometric testing to assess job candidates and most of the biggest football clubs use some form of statistics to select players to recruit. They are all flawed because their is no real science behind what they are attempting to do.

Large companies are routinely confused when they find they have stuffed their departments with staff who don't work well together or are oall of too similar characteristics and football clubs are renowned for spending millions on players who can't seem to kick a ball in a straight line. What surprises me is how bemused people are when this happens. It's f**king obvious.

Edited by oaksoft
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