Big Boris, Our Prime Minister

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, salmonbuddie said:

I will if you will, is it one United Kingdom or can we have separate deals for separate parts, make your mind up. You've claimed both are happening at the same time, Schrodinger's Brexit maybe?

The land border thing is irrelevant, look at Switzerland or Norway, they seem to manage.

Brexit makes indy inevitable, imo, so from that perspective it suits me. The politics demands that the SNP does what it's doing and says what it's saying. Doesn't mean indy isn't the eventual aim.

 

Yes Switzerland and Norway seem to cope fine.

The issue in the case of the UK is however obviously not with either of those countries but between NI and Eire with a history of terrorism and sectarianism which cannot be separated from the issue of a hard border.

That's the difficulty in its simplest form and I see nothing in your posts to suggest you either acknowledge or understand that. Maybe I missed that though?

In theory it is one UK. In practice and in the real world, the only way to have a Brexit is to recognise that NI needs a separate alignment for the sole reason of the history of that island. I'm not asking you to agree with Brexit. I'm just asking you to at least acknowledge the reason why NI needs a special case and that Scotland does not require the same solution.

I don't think Brexit will make any sustainable difference to the IndyRef polls. I think Yes campaigners made a strategic error in requesting IndyRef2 immediately after the last vote was lost. They should have waited a decade before going again to show they had at least respected the 2014 result. Equally, I don't think we'll see Scotland given the power to hold IndyRef2 until Brexit has bedded down and probably only if there is a hung parliament and a Labour minority government needing SNP supply votes to govern. That IMO will be at least a further 10 years away. In the unlikely event of IndyRef2 I am pretty certain that No will win again and that will close the matter down for decades. The electorate will get behind Boris now, we'll get our GE and we'll be looking at a clear Tory majority. That's the end of my crystal ball gazing.

BTW, I actually do like your attempt at a Schrodinger analogy but you should know that it's a poor one in this case. The Schrodinger analogy is not about saying "both exist at the same time". It's about acknowledging uncertainty about which one does exist and the inability to be able to find out because simply looking at the situation forces a result of one or the other. Considering both to exist at the same time is just a weak accessibility model used to allow people to get a feel for it. The same goes for the superposition idea. Mathematically it is a linear combination of a set of basis vectors representing both possibilities.

[salmonbuddie]

Yes Switzerland and Norway seem to cope fine.
The issue in the case of the UK is however obviously not with either of those countries but between NI and Eire with a history of terrorism and sectarianism which cannot be separated from the issue of a hard border.
That's the difficulty in its simplest form and I see nothing in your posts to suggest you either acknowledge or understand that. Maybe I missed that though?
In theory it is one UK. In practice and in the real world, the only way to have a Brexit is to recognise that NI needs a separate alignment for the sole reason of the history of that island. I'm not asking you to agree with Brexit. I'm just asking you to at least acknowledge the reason why NI needs a special case and that Scotland does not require the same solution.
I don't think Brexit will make any sustainable difference to the IndyRef polls. I think Yes campaigners made a strategic error in requesting IndyRef2 immediately after the last vote was lost. They should have waited a decade before going again to show they had at least respected the 2014 result. Equally, I don't think we'll see Scotland given the power to hold IndyRef2 until Brexit has bedded down and probably only if there is a hung parliament and a Labour minority government needing SNP supply votes to govern. That IMO will be at least a further 10 years away. In the unlikely event of IndyRef2 I am pretty certain that No will win again and that will close the matter down for decades. The electorate will get behind Boris now, we'll get our GE and we'll be looking at a clear Tory majority. That's the end of my crystal ball gazing.
BTW, I actually do like your attempt at a Schrodinger analogy but you should know that it's a poor one in this case. The Schrodinger analogy is not about saying "both exist at the same time". It's about acknowledging uncertainty about which one does exist and the inability to be able to find out because simply looking at the situation forces a result of one or the other. Considering both to exist at the same time is just a weak accessibility model used to allow people to get a feel for it. The same goes for the superposition idea. Mathematically it is a linear combination of a set of basis vectors representing both possibilities.

I should've known better than use Schrodinger, all it did was give you the opportunity to show off. Again. You just can't help yourself, can you?

Scotland won't be "given" the power to hold Indyref2, the people of Scotland are sovereign in Scots Law, not Parliament. Once Brexit happens, but not until it happens, the Scottish Government has its mandate to hold it, it was in the manifesto it was elected on. It will happen next year.

There you go, my crystal ball shows a different future to yours.

[oaksoft]

33 minutes ago, salmonbuddie said:

I should've known better than use Schrodinger, all it did was give you the opportunity to show off. Again. You just can't help yourself, can you?

Scotland won't be "given" the power to hold Indyref2, the people of Scotland are sovereign in Scots Law, not Parliament. Once Brexit happens, but not until it happens, the Scottish Government has its mandate to hold it, it was in the manifesto it was elected on. It will happen next year.

There you go, my crystal ball shows a different future to yours.

 

Oh FFS, you were the one who brought it up to try and be a smart arse so quit your bitching just because you got your arse handed to you. I'm not apologising for understanding things just because you don't.

I didn't fail to notice that you simply skipped over the NI/Scotland issue. Fair enough. It's a free world. Clearly having a conversation where you acknowledge the position the other person is coming from is something you cannot do but you seriously need to lighten up ya miserable bugger. 

That bit in bold. Sigh! Whatever!  You must be a joy to have a beer with. 

Edited October 19, 2019 by oaksoft

[Cornwall_Saint]

A little distraction from the Brexit pish...

Saudis welcome Putin with...attempting to play the Russian anthem

[Bud the Baker]

The Letwin Amendment passed so no No Deal Brexit on Halloween- JRM on the verge of tears. 

BJ set to sail on regardless with his Bill, which Letwin says he will vote for' - VoNC required ASAP. 

JRM wants to have another vote on Monday, which apparently depends on the Speaker. 

Edited October 19, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

The Letwin Amendment passed so no No Deal Brexit on Halloween- JRM on the verge of tears. 

BJ set to sail on regardless with his Bill, which Letwin says he will vote for' - VoNC required ASAP. 

JRM wants to have another vote on Monday, which apparently depends on the Speaker. 

Who is JRM?

[Bud the Baker]

1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

Who is JRM?

[oaksoft]

1 minute ago, Bud the Baker said:

Ah! Thanks.

[salmonbuddie]

Oh FFS, you were the one who brought it up to try and be a smart arse so quit your bitching just because you got your arse handed to you. I'm not apologising for understanding things just because you don't.

I didn't fail to notice that you simply skipped over the NI/Scotland issue. Fair enough. It's a free world. Clearly having a conversation where you acknowledge the position the other person is coming from is something you cannot do but you seriously need to lighten up ya miserable bugger. [emoji3]

That bit in bold. Sigh! Whatever!  You must be a joy to have a beer with. 

 

Aye, right, that's exactly what I was thinking...does your crystal ball give you mind reading powers too, then? I think anyone could see that it was a light hearted reference but you couldn't resist the opportunity to show off. Again.

 

I seriously need to lighten up, do I? Pot, kettle spring to mind at all?

 

In what reality does "the bit in bold" lead to the conclusion that I "must be a joy to have a beer with" - serious question, I have absolutely no idea what you're havering about.

 

[guinness]

There is only one way to guarentee independence but I do not think the Scottish people are willing to do it. 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Ffs

Who is JRM?

[Bud the Baker]

It is staggering how many Tory MPs voted yesterday for what is in their own words  a bad deal. Now three of the Tory rebels  (Boles, Gauke & Letwin) have publicly declared they are prepared to vote for BJs deal - unless I've missed some that's only 6 more required for Johnson to have a majority. BJ might very well be able to get his deal through Parliament unless it can be derailed at the Committee stage. 

I wonder how both sides would react this week if a VoNC was called...

[proudtobeabuddy]

15 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

It is staggering how many Tory MPs voted yesterday for what is in their own words  a bad deal. Now three of the Tory rebels  (Boles, Gauke & Letwin) have publicly declared they are prepared to vote for BJs deal - unless I've missed some that's only 6 more required for Johnson to have a majority. BJ might very well be able to get his deal through Parliament unless it can be derailed at the Committee stage. 

I wonder how both sides would react this week if a VoNC was called...

Not any more staggering than the fact that the Buffoon that is Boris Johnson is actually prime minister, makes a mockery of the whole set up, it's a competition between him and Trump who can be the biggest clown... albeit this a calculated and well planned act that fools no-one with an ounce of intelligence.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

It is staggering how many Tory MPs voted yesterday for what is in their own words  a bad deal. Now three of the Tory rebels  (Boles, Gauke & Letwin) have publicly declared they are prepared to vote for BJs deal - unless I've missed some that's only 6 more required for Johnson to have a majority. BJ might very well be able to get his deal through Parliament unless it can be derailed at the Committee stage. 

I wonder how both sides would react this week if a VoNC was called...

It's like saying I'm prepared to shoot myself in the foot because it's not as bad as shooting myself in the head.

[oaksoft]

53 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

It is staggering how many Tory MPs voted yesterday for what is in their own words  a bad deal. Now three of the Tory rebels  (Boles, Gauke & Letwin) have publicly declared they are prepared to vote for BJs deal - unless I've missed some that's only 6 more required for Johnson to have a majority. BJ might very well be able to get his deal through Parliament unless it can be derailed at the Committee stage. 

I wonder how both sides would react this week if a VoNC was called...

It's pretty simple really.

They want to honour the referendum result and they are now satisfied that this deal is as good as they are going to get from the EU. They didn't feel that way about May's deal. Given that there is no other Brexit alternative other than a No Deal they'll vote for the best Brexit they can. This is it in their opinion. None of them want a second referendum because they believe the electorate has spoken. They are correct in that regard, however those of us who want to Remain in the EU feel about that.

A VONC will almost certainly fail now because of that.

I hate to say it but it's looking like we're leaving and it looks very much like that will be this month. Even if the EU grant an extension, that can be cut short if Boris gets his act together before Oct 31st and I'm convinced he'll do so.

Edited October 20, 2019 by oaksoft

[oaksoft]

24 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

It's like saying I'm prepared to shoot myself in the foot because it's not as bad as shooting myself in the head.

Calm down FFS. 

[Bud the Baker]

11 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

It's pretty simple really.

They want to honour the referendum result and they are now satisfied that this deal is as good as they are going to get from the EU. They didn't feel that way about May's deal. Given that there is no other Brexit alternative other than a No Deal they'll vote for the best Brexit they can. This is it in their opinion. None of them want a second referendum because they believe the electorate has spoken. They are correct in that regard, however those of us who want to Remain in the EU feel about that.

A VONC will almost certainly fail now because of that.

I hate to say it but it's looking like we're leaving and it looks very much like that will be this month. Even if the EU grant an extension, that can be cut short if Boris gets his act together before Oct 31st and I'm convinced he'll do so.

Fairy Nuff, but the current deal falls so far short of what LEAVE promised in 2016 (remember "the easiest deal in history"?) that it seems obstinate to pursue it.

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

Fairy Nuff, but the current deal falls so far short of what LEAVE promised in 2016 (remember "the easiest deal in history"?) that it seems obstinate to pursue it.

Northern Ireland was always going to be a special case.

In what other way has the current deal fallen short of that promised? Boris has managed to obtain a deal which looks likely to pass parliament and he's done it in under 2 months. That seems pretty straightforward to me. It was May who f**ked about for 3 years. It looks like both sides are committed to a free trade agreement within the next 12 months. The only thing missing for me is free movement of people. Other than that, what exactly is missing from this Brexit deal that would still make it Brexit?

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by oaksoft

[Bud the Baker]

50 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Northern Ireland was always going to be a special case.

In what other way has the current deal fallen short of that promised? Boris has managed to obtain a deal which looks likely to pass parliament and he's done it in under 2 months. That seems pretty straightforward to me. It was May who f**ked about for 3 years. It looks like both sides are committed to a free trade agreement within the next 12 months. The only thing missing for me is free movement of people. Other than that, what exactly is missing from this Brexit deal that would still make it Brexit?

 

The current deal sees mainland UK out of the Customs Union which I don't remember being the case the majority of LEAVE campaigners were arguing for in the referendum although that's part of what I've said previously as both sides contained a variety of campaigners making different arguments and promises. The movement of the sections on Workers Rights & Environmental Protection to the non-binding section of the Withdrawal Agreement in anticipation of a post-Brexit "race to the bottom" are also issues which I don't remember being focussed on 3 years ago (for which I blame REMAIN) - I remember "£350M for the NHS" on the side of a bus and Nigel "NF" Farage's "Breaking Point" poster which he claims won the referendum. 

To go back to the current deal IIRC it's what the EU first offered and was deemed unacceptable by the TM & the Tories in general as it would mean a border in the Irish Sea (an opinion BJ also supported a year ago), JRM  said he would follow the DUP on this issue, as did the ERG - so to describe this deal as new, good or anything other than a sell-out by BJ & the Tories is well wide of the mark.

Who knows what will happen in the trade talks to come but again both sides are not committed to pursuing the same kind of agreement and I'm not the only one to suggest we'll be approaching the same cliff-edge next December - the threat of a backdoor No Deal Exit is still on if BJ is still in charge.

Edited October 20, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[oaksoft]

During the vote it was made very clear that we'd be out of the EU. No customs union, nothing. Nobody in charge of the Leave side was talking about remaining in that customs union as far as I can remember.

Couldn't care less what Farage said, did or wanted. He wasn't in charge of anything then and he's not in charge now.

I've addressed the £350m thing before. Workers rights and environmental policies will now be crafted in the UK although will almost certainly be aligned with those of the EU for trade reasons. Nobody on the Leave side is talking about removing or reducing any of these rights so I'm not with you on that.

I have no idea exactly what the EU offered originally and/or whether it compares exactly with what Johnson has agreed to now and neither do the rest of us.

The threat of a backdoor no deal is always going to be on unless this all gets sorted out but at least both sides are now talking the same game.

Edited October 20, 2019 by oaksoft

[Cornwall_Saint]

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Boris has managed to obtain a deal which looks likely to pass parliament and he's done it in under 2 months. That seems pretty straightforward to me. It was May who f**ked about for 3 years.

May, while useless, was aiming to try and get some sort of decent deal with the EU. Johnson has his heart set on no deal, and if he’s managed to whip up a deal the EU were quick to agree with, that tells me it’s a great deal for the EU and a shocking deal on the UK end. My opinion is that he’s rustled up a shit deal, so that when parliament rejects it he can turn round and say “That was your last chance, so it’s No Deal now. Tough shit.”

Many Leave voters back him and this only helps his cause because many seem to believe the MPs who reject the deal are “traitors blocking Brexit” regardless of how looking into how shite the deal actually is. It’s win-win for Johnson, he’s played it perfectly to either make Brexit happen or force through No Deal.

2 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Couldn't care less what Farage said, did or wanted. He wasn't in charge of anything then and he's not in charge now.

While this is true, the sad fact is that Farage still did have a massive influence in forcing Brexit. He was key in pushing for a referendum (and succeeded when Cameron shat himself about losing voters to UKIP) and indeed played a key part with the lies and nonsense he spouted about the EU to help the Leave cause. He’s also been massive in creating the Little Englander mentality.

The man may not have ever held a position of significance, but he was a key reason behind all the shite that has happened in recent years.

[Wendy Saintss]

21 hours ago, salmonbuddie said:

 

, I have absolutely no idea

 

Correct! 

[Wendy Saintss]

On 10/17/2019 at 9:40 PM, salmonbuddie said:

England - votes leave - leaves
Wales - votes leave - leaves
NI - votes remain - remains
Scotland - votes remain - sit down and eat your cereal

The SNP MPs at Westminster have stopped England and Wales from leaving!

You’re pretty dumb! 😆

[Bud the Baker]

31 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

During the vote it was made very clear that we'd be out of the EU. No customs union, nothing. Nobody in charge of the Leave side was talking about remaining in that customs union as far as I can remember.

Couldn't care less what Farage said, did or wanted. He wasn't in charge of anything then and he's not in charge now.

I've addressed the £350m thing before. Workers rights and environmental policies will now be crafted in the UK although will almost certainly be aligned with those of the EU for trade reasons. Nobody on the Leave side is talking about removing or reducing any of these rights so I'm not with you on that.

I have no idea exactly what the EU offered originally and/or whether it compares exactly with what Johnson has agreed to now and neither do the rest of us.

The threat of a backdoor no deal is always going to be on unless this all gets sorted out but at least both sides are now talking the same game.

Leaving the Single Market & the 4 Freedom's - Goods, People, Services & Capital - the focus during the referendum was people which makes NFs poster totally relevant. The Customs Union was not mentioned frequently (see below).

https://fullfact.org/europe/what-was-promised-about-customs-union-referendum/

Perhaps you could reiterate what you said about the "£350M thing" as I missed it, I'm glad you're sanguine about Worker's Rights & Environmental policies in the case of a Tory government lead by BJ with members of Britannia Unchained in senior Cabinet positions. I'm not.

Quote

Or, indeed, Johnson himself, who declared that “the weight of employment regulation is now back-breaking”, singling out “the collective redundancies directive, the atypical workers’ directive, the working time directive and a thousand more”.

Quote

Around the same time that Beecroft delivered his report, Raab authored a pamphlet asserting that UK employment legislation represents a “straitjacket” for the economy. And like Beecroft, Raab proposed allowing employers to fire at will.

For the sake of the unemployed, he implored the government to “urgently reduce the burdens of employment regulations”.

As for no-one knowing "exactly" what they were it is clear that a border down the Irish Sea was proposed by the EU and rejected by TM in the summer of 2017, when BJ was Foreign Secretery  - the current deal could have been reached 2 years ago if the Tory Party had wanted it.

Quote

A post-Brexit border in the Irish sea was never really on the table – but a political solution must be

July 31, 2017 2.15pm BST

FFS man - it's barely two years!

Edited October 20, 2019 by Bud the Baker

[Wendy Saintss]

On 10/18/2019 at 7:11 PM, TPAFKATS said:

Some people did bottle it.
Some believed the scare stories that they would lose their pension if they voted for independence.

I'm sure some bottled it with brexit vote as well.

And some people believed Carl Beech! 😂