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St Mirren v Hamilton, 5th Feb 2020


faraway saint

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I hope the new signings all knit and we see a team that will move us in comfortably up the league and carry it on to Saturday as I have a feeling we might go close in the cup this year,the defence is sound so I’m thinking an outrageous 3-0,I’m on the beer early so full of optimism or something else [emoji23]just finished a job in Stuttgart and flying home tomorrow so I’m the pub early got WiFi for hesgoals if on Come on the buds [emoji106][emoji106]

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On 2/3/2020 at 9:13 PM, oaksoft said:

Am I missing something? The bookies odds follow the money placed by punters. The bookies have short odds on Saints beating Hamilton not because they think Sants will win but because that is what punters have bet on. If everyone bet on Hamilton those odds would shorten immediately and Hamilton would be "favourites".

If someone wants to correct me I'm all ears. I'm not a gambling person.

Hello, just remembered, here's how it works...............factors to consider.

Certainly NOT what you are trying to say above. 

Still waiting on that apology? :rolleyes:

The first step for any bookmaker in setting their odds for a given event is trying to determine the true probability or odds of any given outcome occurring. What we mean by outcome, in this case, is any possible result that they may have to pay out on (e.g. a home win, a draw or an away win in the case of a football match).

Factors to consider:

In order to determine these true odds, bookmakers will look at factors such as prior form, statistics, historical precedents, expert opinion and any number of other such factors that could impact the event in question. Following this research and analysis, the bookmaker will be left with what they deem to be the most accurate possible true odds of any outcome occurring.

Edited by faraway saint
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Guest TPAFKATS
Hello, just remembered, here's how it works...............factors to consider.
Certainly NOT what you are trying to say above. 
Still waiting on that apology? :rolleyes:

The first step for any bookmaker in setting their odds for a given event is trying to determine the true probability or odds of any given outcome occurring. What we mean by outcome, in this case, is any possible result that they may have to pay out on (e.g. a home win, a draw or an away win in the case of a football match).

Factors to consider:

In order to determine these true odds, bookmakers will look at factors such as prior form, statistics, historical precedents, expert opinion and any number of other such factors that could impact the event in question. Following this research and analysis, the bookmaker will be left with what they deem to be the most accurate possible true odds of any outcome occurring.

You googled that, didn't you.
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8 minutes ago, Dirty Sanchez said:

Odds shorten and lengthen to maintain the bookies' edge.

i.e. the bookie tries to engineer a situation where he'll win no matter what the outcome of the event is.

Yep. Oaksoft was on the right lines in terms of bookmakers response to a run of money being placed on the subject of the bet. F Man is right on the essentials involved in calculating the odds in the first place. In both scenarios the bookies build in their margin. Both have been covered earlier. 

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8 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:
29 minutes ago, faraway saint said:
Hello, just remembered, here's how it works...............factors to consider.
Certainly NOT what you are trying to say above. 
Still waiting on that apology? :rolleyes:

The first step for any bookmaker in setting their odds for a given event is trying to determine the true probability or odds of any given outcome occurring. What we mean by outcome, in this case, is any possible result that they may have to pay out on (e.g. a home win, a draw or an away win in the case of a football match).

Factors to consider:

In order to determine these true odds, bookmakers will look at factors such as prior form, statistics, historical precedents, expert opinion and any number of other such factors that could impact the event in question. Following this research and analysis, the bookmaker will be left with what they deem to be the most accurate possible true odds of any outcome occurring.

You googled that, didn't you.

Just to confirm what I said the other day, I have some input into these things. :wink:

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3 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Just to confirm what I said the other day, I have some input into these things. :wink:

And what had been covered earlier. In addition, Oaks is right that when a pile of money goes on then the odds can / will be adjusted. Reasons. 1. There might be a change they feel unaware of 2. To maintain their edge. They may also lay off the bets with others to spread the risk and reflect an increase in the margin to reflect this. By the way, I don't bet but do have friends who owned bookies and a professional gambler. 

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