Coronavirus

[St.Ricky]

I attend a fitness class locally. Now closed. I am part of a walking group. Now closed. My wife is a member of a women's group. Meetings stopped and Annual Dinner Cancelled. Only a small part of a bigger picture. 

[faraway saint]

14 minutes ago, Sweeper07 said:

contrary to belief on here, I am pretty popular locally . . . the folk here though are mad !

Even god wouldn't believe that whopper. 😂

[St.Ricky]

15 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Even god wouldn't believe that whopper. 😂

Did you go to classes on how to become as abnoxious as you are or did it come naturally to you? 

[faraway saint]

BBC need to go back to school........................10 more deaths, taking the total to 21 seems to mean double. 

[St.Ricky]

16 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

BBC need to go back to school........................10 more deaths, taking the total to 21 seems to mean double. 

Says our resident expert on probability and statistics. 

[faraway saint]

The Italians in full "lock down" mode...........................poor Italians. 

 

[St.Ricky]

Jet 2 planes enroute to Spain, Majorca and Tenerife turn round mid air. Friends enroute to Poland turned back at boarding desk as they are only accepting people going for more than 10 days. 

[BuddieinEK]

[emoji23][emoji12]

[faraway saint]

It seems we now have TWO forum members who THINK they have the virus. 

The statistical chances of that are astronomical, just saying. 

[St.Ricky]

So says our probability and statistical guru. He has spoken so it must be so or is he just fishing for people to bite. I just did. 

He will be telling us next that he knows better than the WHO. Latest news is that all but food shops and pharmacies are to close in Paris. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by St.Ricky

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Probably applies to most on this thread

[faraway saint]

20 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

Probably applies to most on this thread

Thanks Google. 

PS Does that mean nobody, unless they are an "expert", is allowed an opinion? 

Edited March 14, 2020 by faraway saint

[St.Ricky]

4 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

Probably applies to most on this thread

Make it 2050. 

[faraway saint]

This is the way to deal with toilet roll hoarders...................

 

[faraway saint]

1 minute ago, Slartibartfast said:

1 hour ago, faraway saint said:

It seems we now have TWO forum members who THINK they have the virus. 
The statistical chances of that are astronomical, just saying. 

It's not really. I would think that as soon as one person in a group (who are likely to be in proximity to each other - e.g. at games) is infected, it is more likely that someone else in that group is also infected.

Well, we have hardly any forum members, the chances of ANYONE in Scotland catching this is rare, currently 121 confirmed cases, 31 in Greater Glasgow and Clyde. 

If these two, who claim, have caught it they would probably have to have been at the same game and touched each other.

Aye, two forum members in the whole of Scotland, even the St Mirren support, which would have led to a probable rise in the immediate Paisley area, although not all come from there, just looking at the odds.

Nothings impossible, just unlikely, and most probably just a slight cold.

I have had aches and a few headaches this week, doubt I'll be screaming on a football forum I have the virus................

[faraway saint]

1 minute ago, Dickson said:

Please let it be Cockles and Slartibartfast. 

I'll raise you for...................................

[faraway saint]

1 minute ago, Slartibartfast said:

What I was saying was that if one of them has got it, the odds on another getting it are far lower than the odds for the general population. If the odds for the general population were, say, 4/1 then, if someone in a group got it, the odds for someone else in that group would be more like 3/1 or 2/1. Yes, the odds on two people in the group getting it are still greater than one person getting it but lower than two random people in the general population.

The odds I have used are obviously just for illustrative purposes, before some idiot picks up on them.

There's the first flaw, that puts ONE of them in the unlikely group, but not impossible.

I get that then increases the chances for other people who come into CLOSE proximity but we have hardly any forum members, the chances of two, however you try to paint it, is remote. 

Other teams, Celtic and Rangers, following your rationale, would have much higher outbreaks. 

[faraway saint]

Early days but an encouraging move........................

CORONA RECOVERY 

Woman on brink of death from coronavirus is saved by US doctors thanks to experimental drug

• Hana Carter

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5387471/woman-on-brink-of-death-from-coronavirus-is-saved-by-us-doctors-thanks-to-experimental-drug/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=scottishsunfacebook&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1584216599

[faraway saint]

15 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

Celtic, maybe, but not Sevco, they are the chosen people.

 

You get my drift.

PS If the old troll appears please don't quote him, although the LPM classic "Ricky..............fcuk off" did seem to have a short, but effective, spell where he crawled back into his hole. 

[salmonbuddie]

PS If the old troll appears please don't quote him

You know what happens next, yes?

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

[faraway saint]

1 minute ago, salmonbuddie said:

You know what happens next, yes?

 

This is where the ignore function is meaningless, doesn't stop the old troll, although the "motorway" idea could be a solution. 

[FTOF]

2 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:

3 hours ago, faraway saint said:

It seems we now have TWO forum members who THINK they have the virus. 
The statistical chances of that are astronomical, just saying. 

It's not really. I would think that as soon as one person in a group (who are likely to be in proximity to each other - e.g. at games) is infected, it is more likely that someone else in that group is also infected.

Exactly.

As I posted earlier, the government's strategy appears to be based upon "herd immunity" which encourages the spread of infection, up to a point, in order to create large scale immunity, as currently there is no vaccination. A strategy not without risk, based on many assumptions.

Coincidentally the Advanced Higher Biology pupils are just about to be taught about this on Monday. Shouldn't be too difficult to relate this to real life situations. 

Edited to add - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

Seems a lot of eminent scientists are concerned about the governments current approach and class it as a "Laissez faire" strategy, which will lead to a lot of unnecessary deaths in the at risk category, which will ultimately overload the NHS.

Worrying times indeed.

Edited March 14, 2020 by FTOF

[faraway saint]

11 minutes ago, FTOF said:

Exactly.

As I posted earlier, the government's strategy appears to be based upon "herd immunity" which encourages the spread of infection, up to a point, in order to create large scale immunity, as currently there is no vaccination. A strategy not without risk, based on many assumptions.

Coincidentally the Advanced Higher Biology pupils are just about to be taught about this on Monday. Shouldn't be too difficult to relate this to real life situations. 

The "lock down" approach hasn't produced much success in Italy. (The use of this term is another unnecessary attempt to dramatise the situation, fecking BBC amongst others)

In this situation there's no simple solution, and, IMO, the unnecessary mass attempts to quarantine people does more harm than good.

Leads to the hysteria we've seen in bulk buying and damages the economy.  

No winners IMO. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by faraway saint

[FTOF]

20 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

The "lock down" approach hasn't produced much success in Italy. (The use of this term is another unnecessary attempt to dramatise the situation, fecking BBC amongst others)

In this situation there's no simple solution, and, IMO, the unnecessary mass attempts to quarantine people does more harm than good.

Leads to the hysteria we've seen in bulk buying and damages the economy.  

No winners IMO. 

Italy were caught on the hop, and had the added problem that they had infection concentrated in particular hotspots in the north of the country, which exacerbated the problem. Too little too late for them.

I've heard people saying that the situation in the UK will be sorted in a couple of months, because in China the number of new cases has plummeted.

Sadly they seem to have forgotten that this has only happened due to a draconian lockdown strategy, leading to isolation from infection, and therefore preventing mass immunity. Covid-19 is still out there, and if and when all the uninfected people come out of lockdown, guess what's most likely to happen?

[faraway saint]

2 minutes ago, FTOF said:

Italy were caught on the hop, and had the added problem that they had infection concentrated in particular hotspots in the north of the country, which exacerbated the problem. Too little too late for them.

I've heard people saying that the situation in the UK will be sorted in a couple of months, because in China the number of new cases has plummeted.

Sadly they seem to have forgotten that this has only happened due to a draconian lockdown strategy, leading to isolation from infection, and therefore preventing mass immunity. Covid-19 is still out there, and if and when all the uninfected people come out of lockdown, guess what's most likely to happen?

Indeed, and, as such, a reason whey the forced mass quarantine approach isn't, in the long term, the best strategy. 

It's important to remember the vast majority will be able to deal with this without any intervention from the NHS.

Not in any way forgetting the group who are most susceptible, but they should be the focus.

The next phase involves closing schools, a hair brained idea with next to no real effect on the problem.