Jump to content

Coronavirus


faraway saint

Recommended Posts


2 hours ago, faraway saint said:

You're the one, well not the only one, who's so far engrossed in calculating the worse case scenario, failing, totally, to see what's HAPPENING, not forecast, in other countries.

I have been watching the numbers carefully, not fannying about with home made graphs, and have been dismissing your ludicrous figures, although you are not in the same league as LPM, who I notice seems to escape your abusive comments? 

I would suggest you refrain from calling me a bellend as you, quite clearly, are the one who's been made look like a bellend, all starting from when you were highlighted as a panic buyer and a bit of a meltdown soon after.

Thanks for being entertaining, I have enjoyed making you look very foolish. :lol:

He had that title in the bag by January.:)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest TPAFKATS

NEW: Germany’s Bosch says it has developed a test for Covid-19 that can deliver a diagnosis in under 2.5 hours, and does not need to be taken to a lab

Developed in just 6 weeks, can also check for nine other respiratory diseases, including the flu, using a single sample

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one thing that has become obvious throughout this whole sequence of events, is that there are so many variables in play here, that it is impossible to predict how this going to pan out.

For a start, comparing one country with another which has completely different demographic, is simply invalid. It's basic science.

Mathematical models are all fine and well, in theory.

In reality when nature is involved its sheer unpredictability often manages to outwit these models. I notice that they're now employing such models to try and contain the locust plague in the Africa and Asia. It seems to be helping just now, but it's very early stages. 

Given the extraordinary speed that this pandemic has developed at, it is impossible to have any data that is particularly reliable. I can understand governments, with hosts of experts behind them, announcing figures to try and reassure people or to emphasise the severity of the situation.

However, clowns on the internet, who in their own tiny minds, think that they have become some sort of guiding light on the matter, should be ignored completely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FTOF said:

The one thing that has become obvious throughout this whole sequence of events, is that there are so many variables in play here, that it is impossible to predict how this going to pan out.

For a start, comparing one country with another which has completely different demographic, is simply invalid. It's basic science.

Mathematical models are all fine and well, in theory.

In reality when nature is involved its sheer unpredictability often manages to outwit these models. I notice that they're now employing such models to try and contain the locust plague in the Africa and Asia. It seems to be helping just now, but it's very early stages. 

Given the extraordinary speed that this pandemic has developed at, it is impossible to have any data that is particularly reliable. I can understand governments, with hosts of experts behind them, announcing figures to try and reassure people or to emphasise the severity of the situation.

However, clowns on the internet, who in their own tiny minds, think that they have become some sort of guiding light on the matter, should be ignored completely. 

Close the forum. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, faraway saint said:
3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

And now I have to explain to you the difference between looking at the trend over just the last few days and the overall trend since 15th February?

Are you and hiram bored or are you both just competing for the forums Bellend of the Year 2020 title?

You're the one, well not the only one, who's so far engrossed in calculating the worse case scenario, failing, totally, to see what's HAPPENING, not forecast, in other countries.

I have been watching the numbers carefully, not fannying about with home made graphs, and have been dismissing your ludicrous figures, although you are not in the same league as LPM, who I notice seems to escape your abusive comments? 

I would suggest you refrain from calling me a bellend as you, quite clearly, are the one who's been made look like a bellend, all starting from when you were highlighted as a panic buyer and a bit of a meltdown soon after.

Thanks for being entertaining, I have enjoyed making you look very foolish. :lol:

Although it doesn't take much; does it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

NEW: Germany’s Bosch says it has developed a test for Covid-19 that can deliver a diagnosis in under 2.5 hours, and does not need to be taken to a lab

Developed in just 6 weeks, can also check for nine other respiratory diseases, including the flu, using a single sample
 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/standard-coronavirus-test-if-available-works-well-can-new-diagnostics-help-pandemic#

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, FTOF said:

The one thing that has become obvious throughout this whole sequence of events, is that there are so many variables in play here, that it is impossible to predict how this going to pan out.

For a start, comparing one country with another which has completely different demographic, is simply invalid. It's basic science.

Mathematical models are all fine and well, in theory.

In reality when nature is involved its sheer unpredictability often manages to outwit these models. I notice that they're now employing such models to try and contain the locust plague in the Africa and Asia. It seems to be helping just now, but it's very early stages. 

Given the extraordinary speed that this pandemic has developed at, it is impossible to have any data that is particularly reliable. I can understand governments, with hosts of experts behind them, announcing figures to try and reassure people or to emphasise the severity of the situation.

However, clowns on the internet, who in their own tiny minds, think that they have become some sort of guiding light on the matter, should be ignored completely. 

In a post criticising  "clowns on the internet who in their own tiny minds, think that they have become some sort of guiding light on the matter", can you lay out for us your expertise which allows you to make judgments on mathematical models? 

Or is it OK for you to have an opinion but not others?

We have a f**k of a lot of experts on mathematical modelling all of a sudden.

I'm just wondering whether we have a previously hidden and secret cache of computational experts on here or whether you're just as full of hot air as the people you are having a go at.

I have a PhD in it and a host of published articles in international journals so I understand how modelling works and what limits can be applied to their results. What's your background in all of this?

Edited by oaksoft
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:
1 hour ago, FTOF said:

That's a big article with a lot of info. Was there any particular point within it that you were quoting in reference to my post about Bosch?

It was mainly to highlight how testing has been carried out so far and its limitations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


I have a PhD in it and a host of published articles in international journals so I understand how modelling works and what limits can be applied to their results.


Cringe!

You must have paid a lot of money for that imaginary PhD because you’ve shown on this thread that you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

To be honest, you're wasting your time with the graphs. There are far too many unknown variables to get any real accuracy. All your graphs really showed was what would probably happen if the demographics of the whole population reflected the demographics of the group who had already tested positive and nothing happened to slow (or accelerate) the spread of the virus. Of course, neither of those things are likely.

 

This isn't a dig, just an observation.

 

This is a problem every field of science faces but you can't just stop simply because you can't get complete accuracy.

If what you are after, as I am, is a quick qualitative feel for what is going on then you state your assumptions, run your model and interpret appropriately.

To be fair, I really couldn't have been clearer about that.

My favourite example of this is the very first attempt at modelling the electron density within atoms in the 1920s. Theses early models didn't even predict the formation of molecular bonding but those early models were still useful; for getting a feel for what was going on. Thomas, Fermi and Dirac are still famous today as a result of those models.

To this day, quantum mechanical calculations are performed using only a fraction of the number of variables on systems as small as things like the water molecule and dimers because you simply cannot get enough computational resources to perform the job. Calculations on drug receptors are even less accurate - most of them don't even use quantum mechanics other than perhaps at the very core of the receptor - a handful of atoms out of an entire receptor. Doesn't stop pharmaceuticals from using them intensely to predict good drug candidates.

The problem is that non-experts tend not to fully understand the value of computational models. They expect and demand way too much from them and throw the baby out with the bath water.

Edited by oaksoft
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

 


Cringe!

You must have paid a lot of money for that imaginary PhD because you’ve shown on this thread that you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about!

 

Oh Andy! Sweet, sweet, slightly repugnant Andy.

The idea that I would seek or require your validation is so naive that I want to hug you and make you a warm milky drink before tucking you into your cot at night.

Bless your wee socks. :D

Oh and you don't pay for a PhD. In general, they pay you to undertake one. Tax free as well.

Edited by oaksoft
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, FTOF said:

He had that title in the bag by January.:)

Yep but you seem determined to wrestle it from my grasp.

Still waiting to hear what credentials you possess for justifying that rant about other people being "clowns" regarding their interpretation of the data on covid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, faraway saint said:

You're the one, well not the only one, who's so far engrossed in calculating the worse case scenario, failing, totally, to see what's HAPPENING, not forecast, in other countries.

I have been watching the numbers carefully, not fannying about with home made graphs, and have been dismissing your ludicrous figures, although you are not in the same league as LPM, who I notice seems to escape your abusive comments? 

I would suggest you refrain from calling me a bellend as you, quite clearly, are the one who's been made look like a bellend, all starting from when you were highlighted as a panic buyer and a bit of a meltdown soon after.

Thanks for being entertaining, I have enjoyed making you look very foolish. :lol:

If I ever need advice on changing a gasket or tightening screws I'll give you a shout.

In the meantime, maybe you should pipe down on subjects you know absolutely nothing about.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

If I ever need advice on changing a gasket or tightening screws I'll give you a shout.

In the meantime, maybe you should pipe down on subjects you know absolutely nothing about.

 

I do know your prediction of Italy reaching 3,000 death in a day was utter drivel.

I came to that conclusion without a graph. :thumbs2

I also, without a model, laughed off the likelihood of the UK having anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 deaths.

The village idiot from Ayrshire thinks I was betting on the amount of people dying, I was backing up my conclusions.

Oh, I can also manufacture some pretty complicated pieces of equipment to help get oil and gas out of the ground.

You should stick to.........................what are you good at? :rolleyes:

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...