Hiram Abiff Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 For someone suggesting he's not keen on a fascist police state, you are being very fascist-policey... On the contrary, I’m pointing out the hypocrisy of those who want the police state but don’t want to follow the rules themselves And worse, use the situation to their own advantage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiram Abiff Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 Makes a change from being #thichasfuchThe online hard man strikes againIt’s ironic that someone who criticises the government for not reacting enough is now condoning people breaking the rulesHappy to lockdown everyone else but happy to put lives at risk yourself, eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lenziebud Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said: On the contrary, I’m pointing out the hypocrisy of those who want the police state but don’t want to follow the rules themselves Your pointing out nothing, other than that fact that your are a total c@ck. Why don't you give it a rest as your a mile out and making a total c@ck of yourself which you seem to do on a regular basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted March 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 Let's get back on topic.................................when do we think the current "lockdown" (hate that emotive term but it's now become everyday language) could be lifted or less strict? I've not been out today, mostly because it's fecking freezing so can't say if the measures are being followed or not. I've been off work since Tuesday and it's not what I thought it would be, nothing much to do and the TV is shite. If the weather picks up the authorities will have a busier time trying to keep people at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiram Abiff Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 Hopefully the Morrison’s shopping trip scandal can be resolved with Ayrshire Saint getting issued with a fine by his wife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALBIONSAINT Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 I see the Secretary of State for Scotland has COVID symptoms now, yet another one making there way to the doomsday bunker 🤫 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linwood buddie Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 A rise of 260 deaths taking the total to over 1000 since yesterday😢 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said: On the contrary, I’m pointing out the hypocrisy of those who want the police state but don’t want to follow the rules themselves And worse, use the situation to their own advantage Actually you are very clearly trying to tell him what to do and then attempting to manipulate the rest of us into applying peer pressure to force a change in his behaviour. That sounds that you are not only supportive of the principle of a fascist state but actively engaging in collusion on your part. Can we expect you to announce you've launched legal proceeds next? Colluders will never be forgiven nor forgotten. Just ask those from Vichy. Brrrrrrrr.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted March 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, linwood buddie said: A rise of 260 deaths taking the total to over 1000 since yesterday😢 Over 1,000? Yesterday was 181, today, at the moment, is, as you say, 260. Now, without the aid of a calculator or abacus I don't think that's over 1,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, faraway saint said: Over 1,000? Yesterday was 181, today, at the moment, is, as you say, 260. Now, without the aid of a calculator or abacus I don't think that's over 1,000. Cumulative UK deaths have breeched the 1000 level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linwood buddie Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, faraway saint said: Over 1,000? Yesterday was 181, today, at the moment, is, as you say, 260. Now, without the aid of a calculator or abacus I don't think that's over 1,000. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52077997 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted March 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Cumulative UK deaths have breeched the 1000 level. Aye, just badly worded. 4 minutes ago, linwood buddie said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52077997 Aye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 My street very busy today with people walking for exercise. Also people with children visiting other people. Grandparents etc.they do not seem to be getting the message. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) Seeing as how Jeremy Vine's tweet about the Imperial guys predicting a peak of 250 UK daily deaths has been shown to be wrong, I've updated my graphs from worldometer and included my own predictions. Notes: 1) This graph is purely empirical, based solely on recorded daily deaths in the UK by worldometer. 2) The data has been fitted with a simple exponential trend line. 3) The trend line is then extrapolated to predict where we'll be over the next couple of weeks. Going further than that with this basic model is not worthwhile. 4) As actual daily deaths data comes in, the exponential trend will alter and I'll revise my predictions. 5) I am only making rough predictions of what we could likely be seeing if government or other interventions make no significant difference. 6) You can have all the variables you like but nothing, and I do mean nothing, beats being able to do a quick qualitative check for yourself - a tried and tested technique in all sciences. 7) The graph cannot and doesn't attempt to indicate when daily deaths might peak or when levelling off might occur. 😎 I am happy to engage in technical discussions and disagreements. If you don't like my figures, provide better predictions or show me where others have done it. Any further tantrums from the usual suspects will be ignored. Hopefully the bloody axes show up this time...... Right, my predictions for daily deaths based on the current trend are as follows for the next week or so are: 29th Mar - 279 30th Mar - 362 31st Mar - 469 1st Apr - 608 2nd Apr - 789 3rd Apr - 1023 4th Apr - 1327 5th Apr - 1721 6th Apr - 2232 7th Apr - 2895 8th Apr - 3755 Edited March 28, 2020 by oaksoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shull Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shull Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 Thanks to the heroes of McHargs the Bakers. Just had afternoon tea along with a pineapple cake. Sublime. Happily taking the financial hit. I shall plod on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted March 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Seeing as how Jeremy Vine's tweet about the Imperial guys predicting a peak of 250 UK daily deaths has been shown to be wrong, I've updated my graphs from worldometer and included my own predictions. Notes: 1) This graph is purely empirical, based on recorded daily deaths in the UK by worldometer. 2) The data has been fitted with a simple exponential trend line. 3) The trend line is then extrapolated to predict where we'll be over the next couple of weeks. Going further than that with this basic model is not worthwhile. 4) As actual daily deaths data comes in, the exponential trend will alter and I'll revise my predictions. 5) I am only making rough predictions of what we could likely be seeing if government or other interventions make no significant difference. 6) You can have all the variables you like but nothing, and I do mean nothing, beats being able to do a quick qualitative check for yourself - a tried and tested technique in all sciences. 7) I am happy to engage in technical discussions and disagreements. If you don't like my figures, provide better predictions or show me where others have done it. Any further tantrums from the usual suspects will be ignored. Hopefully the bloody axes show up this time...... Right, my predictions for daily deaths based on the current trend are as follows for the next week or so are: 29th Mar - 279 30th Mar - 362 31st Mar - 469 1st Apr - 608 2nd Apr - 789 3rd Apr - 1023 4th Apr - 1327 5th Apr - 1721 6th Apr - 2232 7th Apr - 2895 8th Apr - 3755 This would take the death toll to 16,479 by 8th April, 11 days. The total worldwide right now is sitting at 28,800, which will, obviously rise over the same period. Italy is sitting on 9,134 excluding today, we are just over 1,000 when the first cases started within a day of each other. I'm not getting into your graph, just the facts don't, IMO, support your figures continually rising at the same rate. You, I think, originally said 3,000 per day on 6th April, now that's moved to 7th/8th April. As I've said, time will tell but it would take some going to massively overtake the Italians. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) Oaky. Why do you have such a morbid fascination with predicting people dying? seems a strange hobby to have. Will you be on here heralding your numbers if they turn out relatively accurate? Here's a figure for you. SCOTLAND HAS AROUND 10% OT THE POPULATION OF England YET ONLY 4% OF THE DEATHS. You could extrapolate the feck out of that. Edited March 28, 2020 by stlucifer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lenziebud Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Yflab said: 20% I don’t think so. Back to school for you. you couldn't make it up. i think it will take more than school ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, faraway saint said: This would take the death toll to 16,479 by 8th April, 11 days. The total worldwide right now is sitting at 28,800, which will, obviously rise over the same period. Italy is sitting on 9,134 excluding today, we are just over 1,000 when the first cases started within a day of each other. I'm not getting into your graph, just the facts don't, IMO, support your figures continually rising at the same rate. You, I think, originally said 3,000 per day on 6th April, now that's moved to 7th/8th April. As I've said, time will tell but it would take some going to massively overtake the Italians. TBF I did make it clear I was predicting where levelling off would occur. The bit in red is because you're either struggling (like most people) with the concept of what exponential trends do over very short periods of time or you're not convinced there's an exponential trend at all, in which case I'd urge you to look again at the worldometer graphs which show this via straight line logarithmic graphs for most countries. The proof for exponential growth is certainly on that website. It's moved to 7th/8th because of two or three days of unexpectedly low deaths rates last weekend. Italy did the same for a number of days in a row. We're clearly both back on the exponential trend. My prediction for 3000 will vary as new data comes in each day. Given how rough and ready my graph is, being just two days out from my initial prediction is pretty reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted March 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) Not quite so dramatic looking when you change the graphs to Logarithmic. Still the same numbers. Edited March 28, 2020 by faraway saint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, stlucifer said: Oaky. Why do you have such a morbid fascination with predicting people dying? seems a strange hobby to have. Will you be on here heralding your numbers if they turn out relatively accurate? Here's a figure for you. SCOTLAND HAS AROUND 20% OT THE POPULATION OF England YET ONLY 4% OF THE DEATHS. You could extrapolate the feck out of that. I'm sorry but I'm not engaging in any sort of discussion with overly emotional people. Cut out that shite in bold and I'll be happy to talk again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Yflab said: 20% I don’t think so. Back to school for you. I am happy to accept being wrong I should have looked it up on google! There are far more Englunders than I thought. 55,000,000 in England 5,300,000 in Scotland So around 10% My bad Edited March 28, 2020 by stlucifer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, faraway saint said: That is almost a straight line over the last fortnight. It's still exponential but the coefficient and power is clearly a lot smaller than it was at the start. They really ought to be showing some sign of a major slowdown after so many weeks of lockdown and it's worrying that it's really not kicking in yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, faraway saint said: Not quite so dramatic looking when you change the graphs to Logarithmic. Still the same numbers. Whit? It's exactly the same dreadful picture whichever one you look at. A near-as-damn-it straight line logarithmic curve of deaths is an appallingly bad trend. Am I being whooshed? I am, aren't I? f**k it. I've been whooshed by the bit in red. Forget it. I'm being distracted by tears from Lucy having a go at my apparent glee over death rates. Edited March 28, 2020 by oaksoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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