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Coronavirus


faraway saint

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1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

Whit?

It's exactly the same dreadful picture whichever one you look at.

A near-as-damn-it straight line logarithmic curve of deaths is an appallingly bad trend.

Am I being whooshed?

I am, aren't I?

Visually they, while the exact same numbers, are not as dramatic looking.

I NEVER said it was any different, did I? :blink:

Back to where we have been for a while.

Let things take their course, with the measures that are in place, and see where we are in the next couple of weeks. 

Ultimately, whatever that means, the numbers will be considerable, just not, IMO, in the short time scale you have so much faith in. 

The government are using 20,000 fatalities as some sort of manageable figure, without as far as I can see, a timescale. 

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1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Cumulative UK deaths have breeched the 1000 level.

A few things, here.

The way in which deaths are currently recorded is a weird one.

Cumulative UK deaths are not people dying  due to Coronavirus, but they have died 'just' happening to have the virus in them.  It may or may not have contributed but it is not the sole reason that they died.

That bbc report is only half the truth.

Also... arbitrary deaths  have breAched the 1000 level.  'breEch' is a bit of a gun or an arse...

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11 minutes ago, antrin said:

A few things, here.

The way in which deaths are currently recorded is a weird one.

Cumulative UK deaths are not people dying  due to Coronavirus, but they have died 'just' happening to have the virus in them.  It may or may not have contributed but it is not the sole reason that they died.

That bbc report is only half the truth.

Also... arbitrary deaths  have breAched the 1000 level.  'breEch' is a bit of a gun or an arse...

That bit in bold - good old antrin. Never change. :lol:

All models are only as good as the quality of data. I have not discriminated between the two because nobody has that data. If someone figures out how to separate them I'll make the necessary correction once it appears on worldometer.

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1 hour ago, shull said:

Thanks to the heroes of McHargs the Bakers. 

Just had afternoon tea along with a pineapple cake. 

Sublime. 

Happily taking the financial hit. 

I shall plod on. 

You're a top man, Shull. If only everyone was like you. It's all metrosexual wee snowflakes out there worrying about hurt feelings, and running about with masks on. Let's roll up our sleeves and get on with it. We wouldn't have stood a chance in WWII with the calibre of 'men' about today. 

Edited by GMan
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28 minutes ago, GMan said:

You're a top man, Shull. If only everyone was like you. It's all metrosexual wee snowflakes out there worrying about hurt feelings, and running about with masks on. Let's roll up our sleeves and get on with it. We wouldn't have stood a chance in WWII with the calibre of 'men' about today. 

Are you gay? 

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4 hours ago, faraway saint said:

I'm just going for a nap and can't be arsed checking but I also believe Morrisons are only asking for one person to a trolley. 

😴😴😴

I thought that yesterday when I went to Morrison but there were plenty of couples with 1 trolley. Took me 15mins to get in.

Girl at the till took a packet of biscuits back off me since it seems I had bought to many of an other kind  :huh:

No biscuits for the wife then with her tea .  :lol:

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You're a top man, Shull. If only everyone was like you. It's all metrosexual wee snowflakes out there worrying about hurt feelings, and running about with masks on. Let's roll up our sleeves and get on with it. We wouldn't have stood a chance in WWII with the calibre of 'men' about today. 




Are you gay? 


Well that's a no-brainer if his/her post is anything to go by. Doesn't make him/her a bad person, mind.

[emoji846]
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Guest TPAFKATS

Peter Thielen, a molecular geneticist, has stated that due to the slow mutation of Coronavirus it looks likely only a single vaccination will be required, rather than a yearly one.

This is significant - it also reduces the chance of the feared second wave.

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Guest TPAFKATS
A few things, here.
The way in which deaths are currently recorded is a weird one.
Cumulative UK deaths are not people dying  due to Coronavirus, but they have died 'just' happening to have the virus in them.  It may or may not have contributed but it is not the sole reason that they died.
That bbc report is only half the truth.
Also... arbitrary deaths  have breAched the 1000 level.  'breEch' is a bit of a gun or an arse...
Depends on whether coronavirus is attributable or not?

Main cause of death might be pneumonia, however if you have CV then it's certainly going to be a contributory factor.
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3 hours ago, stlucifer said:

Oaky. Why do you have such a morbid fascination with predicting people dying? seems a strange hobby to have. Will you be on here heralding your numbers if they turn out relatively accurate?

Here's a figure for you.

SCOTLAND HAS AROUND 10% OT THE POPULATION OF England YET  ONLY 4% OF THE DEATHS. 

You could extrapolate the feck out of that.

I'm fascinated by it, to be honest. Obviously I'd rather the least number of people possible die but, like Oaky, other than following the recommended guidance I am powerless to alter the number of fatalities. I'm interested in seeing predictions of how catastrophic this thing is going to be, though. 

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5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

All models are only as good as the quality of data. I have not discriminated between the two because nobody has that data. If someone figures out how to separate them I'll make the necessary correction once it appears on worldometer.

Try looking at graphs of JUST Deaths in recent past years, at this time of year.  I doubt the shape will look much different.

If you’re aware that the data is dirty, then it seems pointless that you should persist in trying extract anything rational.  

The Emeritus Professor of the Johannes-Gutenberg-University in Mainz and longtime Head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene has written to Angela Merkel about such dirty data.

 

I was pretty interested in the following which helps explain/rationalise the shocking, scary numbers emerging from Italy.

One of these factors is the increased air pollution in the north of Italy. According to WHO estimates, this situation, even without the virus, led to over 8,000 additional deaths per year in 2006 in the 13 largest cities in Italy alone. [7] The situation has not changed significantly since then. 8] Finally, it has also been shown that air pollution greatly increases the risk of viral lung diseases in very young and elderly people. [9]”

 

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3 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

Depends on whether coronavirus is attributable or not?

Main cause of death might be pneumonia, however if you have CV then it's certainly going to be a contributory factor.

Which is precisely the point I was making.     Almost.  We can’t trust the figures. 

Currently, the figures we see are assuming the virus has been the killer, when even I understand that is untrue and inaccurate...

and also dangerously increases irrational reactions, decision making and panic. 
 

And CV isn’t  “certainly going to be a contributory factor”, as you suggest.  It might be.

people die anyway from a variety of causes.  
 

Some of them have dandruff.  Unlike CV, dandruff is seldom given as a cause of death or contributory factor... whereas in ALL deaths currently, if CV was there that is publicised, when it possibly is irrelevant.

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10 minutes ago, GMan said:

Could a gay man bench 250 kg? Because that's what I bench. 

My brother's gay, and he goes to the gym six nights a week...

8 minutes ago, antrin said:

Which is precisely the point I was making.     Almost.  We can’t trust the figures. 

Currently, the figures we see are assuming the virus has been the killer, when even I understand that is untrue and inaccurate...

and also dangerously increases irrational reactions, decision making and panic. 
 

And CV isn’t  “certainly going to be a contributory factor”, as you suggest.  It might be.

people die anyway from a variety of causes.  
 

Some of them have dandruff.  Unlike CV, dandruff is seldom given as a cause of death or contributory factor... whereas in ALL deaths currently, if CV was there that is publicised, when it possibly is irrelevant.

Aye, but could a gay man bench 250kg? :rolleyes:

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Guest TPAFKATS



Which is precisely the point I was making.     Almost.  We can’t trust the figures. 
Currently, the figures we see are assuming the virus has been the killer, when even I understand that is untrue and inaccurate...
and also dangerously increases irrational reactions, decision making and panic. 
 
And CV isn’t  “certainly going to be a contributory factor”, as you suggest.  It might be.
people die anyway from a variety of causes.  
 
Some of them have dandruff.  Unlike CV, dandruff is seldom given as a cause of death or contributory factor... whereas in ALL deaths currently, if CV was there that is publicised, when it possibly is irrelevant.



The flip side of this is that not all countries may be reporting deaths the same, which could lead to under reporting. You appear to be only looking at one side of this.

Regarding CV being noted on death certificates are you seriously trying to compare it to dandruff?
If someone dies of pneumonia and has CV it's entirely appropriate that this also goes on the death certificate.

Doctors only put relevant conditions as cause of death.
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9 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:


 

 

 


The flip side of this is that not all countries may be reporting deaths the same, which could lead to under reporting. You appear to be only looking at one side of this.

Regarding CV being noted on death certificates are you seriously trying to compare it to dandruff?
If someone dies of pneumonia and has CV it's entirely appropriate that this also goes on the death certificate.

Doctors only put relevant conditions as cause of death.

 

 

Quite obviously not.

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