Coronavirus

[antrin]

21 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

 

If someone dies of pneumonia and has CV it's entirely appropriate that this also goes on the death certificate.

Doctors only put relevant conditions as cause of death.

 

 

A 44 yo marathon runner was killed by CV, as his heart could no longer take the strain, we were told.  He wasn’t killed by CV.  He has had AIDs since 1997.  The marathon is a tough race.  It tests weaknesses.  His death was not unusual or special.

a 19yo had died from CV.  It is now thought she may have committed suicide.  The CV link was only due to someone saying, O’Shea had been coughing”.

 

it is thought that CV has been in circulation in UK since January 2020,  at least.  A lot of the population probably has the markers and antibodies now in our systems.  If we die now for whatever reason, doubtless it “was because of CV!”

[oaksoft]

 

2 hours ago, antrin said:

Which is precisely the point I was making.     Almost.  We can’t trust the figures. 

Currently, the figures we see are assuming the virus has been the killer, when even I understand that is untrue and inaccurate...

and also dangerously increases irrational reactions, decision making and panic. 
 

And CV isn’t  “certainly going to be a contributory factor”, as you suggest.  It might be.

people die anyway from a variety of causes.  
 

Some of them have dandruff.  Unlike CV, dandruff is seldom given as a cause of death or contributory factor... whereas in ALL deaths currently, if CV was there that is publicised, when it possibly is irrelevant.

Tell you what. Why don't you pile in and help all these world leading medical and virus experts sort their stats out the "correct way". You clearly know more than any of them. Take Dickson and that Biology teaching f**kwit with you. Really, the three of you are simply wasted on here. Don't take no for an answer. Just barge in to meetings and make them listen.

Between the three of you, we'll have the correct stats in no time. You are the expert in spelling, Dickson is an expert in everything and FTOF knows how to get kids to memorise useless facts to pass exams. I think we're on the verge of defeating this thing.

Clock is ticking......

Edited March 29, 2020 by oaksoft

[oaksoft]

12 hours ago, FTOF said:

Another factor that people seem to be ignoring/forgetting is an individual's genetics. It's quite obvious that this is at play, given the variability in severity of symptoms even within specific age groups, never mind between different ethnic groups.

 

Honestly, you should stick to teaching kids how to pass tests. 

[oaksoft]

5 hours ago, W6er said:

I'm fascinated by it, to be honest. Obviously I'd rather the least number of people possible die but, like Oaky, other than following the recommended guidance I am powerless to alter the number of fatalities. I'm interested in seeing predictions of how catastrophic this thing is going to be, though. 

"could be".

You have to be careful with your language I'm afraid.

When I was doing this sort of thing professionally, you always had to be careful. One accidental slip and there's a world of antrins, Dicksons and FTOFs who create nothing of value themselves but are ever ready to pounce and misrepresent what you are trying to say. It's the constant peril facing anyone who sticks their neck out on any issue.

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by oaksoft

[oaksoft]

2 hours ago, antrin said:

Try looking at graphs of JUST Deaths in recent past years, at this time of year.  I doubt the shape will look much different.

If you’re aware that the data is dirty, then it seems pointless that you should persist in trying extract anything rational.  
 

 

That is an utterly ridiculous conclusion.

Everyone is trying to use this data.

Currently, it's the best we have to work with until you, Dicky and the teacher slap some arses and get those experts working properly.

In the real world, you don't just down tools because everything isn't perfect. You work with what you've got and repeatedly state "this is our best guess using this model and this data". The world experts are no more immune to this dirty data than I am.

Now, FFS stop wasting time posting here and get on a plane.

Edited March 29, 2020 by oaksoft

[shull]

5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

 

Tell you what. Why don't you pile in and help all these world leading medical and virus experts sort their stats out the "correct way". You clearly know more than any of them. Take Dickson and that Biology teaching f**kwit with you. Really, the three of you are simply wasted on here. Don't take no for an answer. Just barge in to meetings and make them listen.

Between the three of you, we'll have the correct stats in no time. You are the expert in spelling, Dickson is an expert in everything and FTOF knows how to get kids to memorise useless facts to pass exams. I think we're on the verge of defeating this thing.

Clock is ticking......

You really are a piece of shit.

Fecking vermin and a bully.

[shull]

5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

That is an utterly ridiculous conclusion.

Everyone is trying to use this data.

Currently, it's the best we have to work with until you, Dicky and the teacher slap some arses and get those experts working properly.

In the real world, you don't just down tools because everything isn't perfect. You work with what you've got and repeatedly state "this is our best guess using this model and this data". The world experts are no more immune to this dirty data than I am.

Now, FFS stop wasting time posting here and get on a plane.

This a Football Forum.

Why are you here ?

Leave decent  people alone, ye cnut.

[antrin]

6 hours ago, oaksoft said:

That is an utterly ridiculous conclusion.

Everyone is trying to use this data.

Currently, it's the best we have to work with until you, Dicky and the teacher slap some arses and get those experts working properly.

In the real world, you don't just down tools because everything isn't perfect. You work with what you've got and repeatedly state "this is our best guess using this model and this data". The world experts are no more immune to this dirty data than I am.

Now, FFS stop wasting time posting here and get on a plane.

No.

EVERYONE is not trying to use this data.  It is NOT of the best quality, as I noted above with a couple of examples.

A large proportion of your so-called “world experts” are challenging it and consistently pointing out the stuff I’ve posted above.

it is their MULTIPLE critiques (of the data that you are blindly accepting) which has given me cautious optimism and lifted me above your Corporal Jones’-ish doom-laden blind panic.

i previously offered a link to some of them.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

at the end of that article, there are daily updates - all from highly qualified, practising “world-experts”, none of whom - as far as I am aware - has been debasing themselves by posting simplistic graphs based on dirty data, on an obscure Scottish  fitba forum.

But you wire in, oxter!  A PhD must qualify you for something.  
 

ETA I’d stay aff the bevvy if posting late on  Saturday night, if I were you...

 

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by antrin

[faraway saint]

6 hours ago, oaksoft said:

That is an utterly ridiculous conclusion.

Everyone is trying to use this data.

Currently, it's the best we have to work with until you, Dicky and the teacher slap some arses and get those experts working properly.

In the real world, you don't just down tools because everything isn't perfect. You work with what you've got and repeatedly state "this is our best guess using this model and this data". The world experts are no more immune to this dirty data than I am.

Now, FFS stop wasting time posting here and get on a plane.

It seems you get "lost" in your world of figures and graphs.

Take a step back and look at where we are and, yes, your favourite, Italy are.

They are on over 10,000 fatalities, we are just over 1,000 and you EXPECT us to hit 16,5000 in 10 days? 

THAT just doesn't stack up and when it doesn't you might want to consider using some COMMON SENSE rather than your ability to provide a graph. 

[faraway saint]

15 minutes ago, antrin said:

No.

EVERYONE is not trying to use this data.  It is NOT of the best quality, as I noted above with a couple of examples.

A large proportion of your so-called “world experts” are challenging it and consistently pointing out the stuff I’ve posted above.

it is their MULTIPLE critiques (of the data that you are blindly accepting) which has given me cautious optimism and lifted me above your Corporal Jones’-ish doom-laden blind panic.

i previously offered a link to some of them.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

at the end of that article, there are daily updates - all from highly qualified, practising “world-experts”, none of whom - as far as I am aware - has been debasing themselves by posting simplistic graphs based on dirty data, on an obscure Scottish  fitba forum.

But you wire in, oxter!  A PhD must qualify you for something.  
 

ETA I’d stay aff the bevvy if posting late on  Saturday night, if I were you...

 

 

 

Quite simply this Swiss doctors opinion makes sense, I would go as far as common sense.

.

 

[antrin]

5 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Quite simply this Swiss doctors opinion makes sense, I would go as far as common sense.

.

 

Aw naw.

agreement from such a fallible source...  

What am I doing wrong?!

[faraway saint]

Just now, antrin said:

Aw naw.

agreement from such a fallible source...  

What am I doing wrong?!

Get the fecking breakfast made and shut up. 

[antrin]

8 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Get the fecking breakfast made and shut up. 

Been there, done that.

 

the first bit, at least....

[antrin]

38 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Quite simply this Swiss doctors opinion makes sense, I would go as far as common sense.

.

 

For clarity...

Swiss Doctor is just the website’s handle.  (!)

The daily updates appended to that one post within it - about Coronavirus - come from myriad sources, experts and academics.

[faraway saint]

Just now, antrin said:

For clarity...

Swiss Doctor is just the website’s handle.  (!)

The daily updates appended to that one post within it - about Coronavirus - come from myriad sources, experts and academics.

I should have used "these", apologies. 

[jaybee]

16 hours ago, faraway saint said:

16 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Whit?

It's exactly the same dreadful picture whichever one you look at.

A near-as-damn-it straight line logarithmic curve of deaths is an appallingly bad trend.

Am I being whooshed?

I am, aren't I?

Visually they, while the exact same numbers, are not as dramatic looking.

I NEVER said it was any different, did I? 

Back to where we have been for a while.

Let things take their course, with the measures that are in place, and see where we are in the next couple of weeks. 

Ultimately, whatever that means, the numbers will be considerable, just not, IMO, in the short time scale you have so much faith in. 

The government are using 20,000 fatalities as some sort of manageable figure, without as far as I can see, a timescale. 

still an obscene debate in my opinion#

 

 

[antrin]

3 minutes ago, jaybee said:

still an obscene debate in my opinion#

 

 

Why so, Jaycee?  

 

We are human.   We live and die.   Debate naturally arises.

The impact of this virus IS a scary reality around the world, people are unsure, they are asking questions, seeking reassurance...

Which is certainly why I believe clarity on the numbers is a necessity, while others seem accepting of whatever inaccurate mush they’re being spoon-fed.

 

WHAT  is it that you find obscene?

 

 

[Hiram Abiff]

 

THE CORONAVIRUS which is rapidly spreading across the globe should be the least of our concerns when compared to the flu, scientists have warned.

 

The virus is not nearly as deadly as the common flu, which experts have warned should still take priority in the medical battle.

 

Influenza can lead to thousands of deaths a year, with the University of Oxford stating that in 2008-2009, there were 13,000 deaths in the UK alone related to the flu.

 

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that an average of up to 500,000 people die annually across the globe due to the flu.

 

Since October alone, 20,000 people died from flu complications in the US, which has led to one expert describing the coronavirus as a “blip”.

 

William Schaffner, a vaccine expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Centre, told Kaiser Health News (KHN): "When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there's just no comparison.

 

"Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.”

 

Peter Hotez, a virologist at Baylor College of Medicine, told KHN: "Influenza rarely gets this sort of attention, even though it kills more Americans each year than any other virus.”

 

Dr Schaffner added that the reason influenza is so easily overlooked is that we have known about it for thousands of years, and people have become complacent as a result.

 

He said: "Familiarity breeds indifference. Because it's new, it's mysterious, and comes from an exotic place, the coronavirus creates anxiety.”

 

[faraway saint]

48 minutes ago, jaybee said:

still an obscene debate in my opinion#

This thread has had 19,500 views, quite extraordinary, matching the effect this is having on all our lives.

It's only natural people debate.

Plenty of opinions from each end of the spectrum, and as always plenty are extreme.

[Hiram Abiff]

Corona: An Epidemic of Mass Panic
By Prof. Peter C. Gøtzsche

“What if the Chinese had not tested their patients for coronavirus or there had not been any test? Would we have carried on with our lives, without restrictions, not worrying about some deaths here and there among old people, which we see every winter? I think so.”

the mortality is so different in Italy and South Korea, I do find it very prudent that they told people to stay in their homes in South Korea if they fall ill, and only if they become very sick, will a car come and bring them to a hospital that is not overcrowded. If the infectious dose is high, mortality will also be higher because there will not be sufficient time to establish an immune response. Therefore, overcrowded hospitals will have higher mortality rates. The panic does just that: leads to overcrowded hospitals.

The panic looks like an unfortunate overreaction. We don’t even know if the risk of dying if you get infected with Coronavirus is higher than if you get influenza, or so many other virus infections, and most of those who die are old and suffer from comorbidity, just like for influenza.

Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do. No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.

[Hiram Abiff]

.
 

That’s the most sensible post you’ve ever made [emoji2][emoji12]

[faraway saint]

Just now, Hiram Abiff said:

 

That’s the most sensible post you’ve ever made

 

Still waiting on ONE from you. 

[Hiram Abiff]

Regarding CV being noted on death certificates are you seriously trying to compare it to dandruff?
.

TPAFTWAT has made some ridiculous statements but, even for him, the level of stupidity here is worrying.

[W6er]

I think Oaksoft might be a wee bit delicate this morning... 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

A 44 yo marathon runner was killed by CV, as his heart could no longer take the strain, we were told.  He wasn’t killed by CV.  He has had AIDs since 1997.  The marathon is a tough race.  It tests weaknesses.  His death was not unusual or special.
a 19yo had died from CV.  It is now thought she may have committed suicide.  The CV link was only due to someone saying, O’Shea had been coughing”.
 
it is thought that CV has been in circulation in UK since January 2020,  at least.  A lot of the population probably has the markers and antibodies now in our systems.  If we die now for whatever reason, doubtless it “was because of CV!”

A marathon runner has CV drops dead due to strain on his heart and you don't think CV was at least a contributory factor.
Seriously antrin?

I occasionally have to get involved with death certs in a professional capacity.
Although Dr's may have different opinions I can assure you they will not add contributory factors to death certs just for the sake of it.

There's more chance of deaths at home and deaths from other things where CV is a contributory factor not being recorded than there is of "too many" deaths being attributed to it.