Coronavirus

[faraway saint]

12 minutes ago, DougJamie said:

Yes scary, 563 in UK today and it is now looking like 20000 will be way surpassed

Why do you think, and in what time scale, we will pass 20,000?

Italy are currently on a total of 12,428, why do you think we will surpass that by a considerable amount? 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

 
Making a joke about dogging in the same post regarding 563 deaths has actually got to be up there with the worst of this guy’s usual vile posts.
 
He’s made misogynistic and homophobic comments and jokes in the past but this sinks to new depths.
 
It’s pretty sad.

A predictable response with fake outrage from nae pals Andy.
His fellow trolls predictably pile on.

Any evidence of these misogynistic or homphobic posts?

[Guest TPAFKATS]

It said most, not all? 
You're having a nightmare with all that anger, making you look like a fool, do you live in Stirling? 
Remember you told us lots of other European countries paid more than 80% when they lost their jobs? 
Another sad attempt to minimise the surprisingly generous payment from the UK government.
Run along, you sad cnut. [emoji38]
I like this name calling game. 

Yes lots of European countries do this. Of course given that you can't work out how to find out what flights are arriving at an airport, I'm not expecting you to have the ability to find this out for yourself.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

The numbers in Scotland seem to be rising considerably.

76 from the UK total of 2,352.

Well done. Is it finally sinking in now, you sad trolling c**t

 

Anyway, wasted of time. Back onto ignore

 

[faraway saint]

1 minute ago, TPAFKATS said:

 

 

Yes lots of European countries do this. Of course given that you can't work out how to find out what flights are arriving at an airport, I'm not expecting you to have the ability to find this out for yourself.

 

So you just made it up, thanks. 

Google. 

[faraway saint]

Just now, TPAFKATS said:

36 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

The numbers in Scotland seem to be rising considerably.
76 from the UK total of 2,352.

Well done. Is it finally sinking in now, you sad trolling c**t

Are you drunk? 

Trolling? 

[faraway saint]

4 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

Well done. Is it finally sinking in now, you sad trolling c**t

 

Anyway, wasted of time. Back onto ignore

 

[Bud the Baker]

40 minutes ago, DougJamie said:

Preservation of life from an unknown virus is treated seriously, at some stage you and "Andy" will be impacted by this, many many families already are, so I will take my chances with experts and not a couple of fannies on a football forum...………

The problem is as Hiram has been able to show there are other "experts" who disagree..

Until sufficient data is available  to show overwhelming agreement for one course of action I think the correct decision is to err on the side of caution, where I have some sympathy for Hiram et al is the initial nonchalant approach by the government of followed by panic has worsened the situation both in terms of reality  and of public trust & confidence in our ability to deal with the situation.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[Hiram Abiff]

BBC now beginning to ask the questions I’ve been asking for days

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

[salmonbuddie]

For the tinfoil hat wearers (aka Daily Express readers) out there:

https://fullfact.org/health/new-coronavirus-not-genetically-engineered/

[Guest TPAFKATS]

The problem is as Hiram has been able to show there are other "experts" who disagree..
Until sufficient data is available  to show overwhelming agreement for one course of action I think the correct decision is to err on the side of caution, where I have some sympathy for Hiram et al is the initial nonchalant approach by the government of followed by panic has worsened the situation both in terms of reality  and of public trust & confidence in our ability to deal with the situation.

The problem for Hiram is that he was as nonchalant as the government and is only interested in taking a contrary approach.

[faraway saint]

6 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

BBC now beginning to ask the questions I’ve been asking for days

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

The Office for National Statistics is now trying to determine the proportion of these deaths that are caused specifically by coronavirus. Similar work in Italy suggested about 12% of them were.

This would put the actual amount of deaths at 282 SPECIFICALLY caused by the virus. 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

No Michael Gove doing the press conference today. His constant lying over the last 3 days has been found out. Back into hiding for him.

[linwood buddie]

9 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

No Michael Gove doing the press conference today. His constant lying over the last 3 days has been found out. Back into hiding for him.

 Maybe his turn to allegedly catch coronavirus like Boris and his other chums.

[Hiram Abiff]

German constitutional law experts are raising the alarm for „serious encroachments on fundamental rights“. Constitutional law expert Hans Michael Heinig warns that the „democratic constitutional state could turn into a fascist-hysterical hygiene state in no time“. Professor Christoph Möllers of Berlin’s Humboldt University explains that the infection protection law „cannot serve as a basis for such far-reaching restrictions of citizens‘ rights of freedom“. According to the former president of the German Federal Constitutional Court, Hans Jürgen Papier, „emergency measures do not justify the suspension of civil liberties in favour of an authoritarian and surveillance state“.
Online petitions have been launched in several countries to end curfews and other encroachments on basic rights. At the same time, critical video contributions, even by doctors, are increasingly being deleted. In Berlin, a registered event on fundamental rights, at which the German constitution was distributed, was terminated by the police.

[Hiram Abiff]

The Office for National Statistics is now trying to determine the proportion of these deaths that are caused specifically by coronavirus. Similar work in Italy suggested about 12% of them were.
This would put the actual amount of deaths at 282 SPECIFICALLY caused by the virus. 

Which compares with the 44,000 excess deaths caused by the flu in 14/15 over and above the 000s who already die with the flu every year.

[Hiram Abiff]

The problem for Hiram is that he was as nonchalant as the government and is only interested in taking a contrary approach.

 

As I only started posting after restrictions started coming in and argued against them, the first part obviously isn’t true.

 

And of course, everyone who has a view different to yours must only be doing it to be contrary.

 

You’re not interested in the actual virus or the damage it’s doing to the economy. You’re only interested in your own narrow political agenda.

 

A political agenda which now has you ironically backing a far right fascist police state and gleefully posting meaningless updates on the number of people dying.

[Hiram Abiff]

An article on the specialist portal DocCheck deals with the problem of ventilating test-positive patients. In test-positive patients, simple ventilation through a mask is officially advised against, among other things to prevent the coronavirus from spreading through aerosols. Therefore, test positive intensive care patients are often intubated directly. However, intubation has poor chances of success and often leads to additional damage to the lungs (so-called ventilator-induced lung damage). As with medication, the question arises as to whether a more gentle treatment of patients would not be medically more sensible.

[Hiram Abiff]

Sweden, which has so far managed without radical measures and has not reported increased mortality (similar to Asian countries such as Japan or South Korea), is remarkably put under pressure from the international media to change its strategy.

Data from New York State show that the hospitalization rate of test-positive individuals could be more than twenty times lower than originally assumed.

[Hiram Abiff]

The latest data from Norway, evaluated by a PhD in environmental toxicology, again show that the rate of test-positives does not increase – as would be expected in the case of an epidemic – but fluctuates in the normal range for coronaviruses between 2 and 10%. The average age of the test-positive deceased is 84 years, the causes of death are not publicly reported, and there is no excess mortality.

[oaksoft]

2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

My graph comes from the data in worldometer and the sources they use are listed on that site so it's perfectly credible. All I've done is copy and paste the data to allow me to fit a trendline to it. The trendline I've stuck on the data has to be mine because nobody else is using this method. The predictions have to be my own because they are based on that trendline. The source data is credible though.

I said a couple of weeks ago that we were 2 weeks behind Italy. We are now only about 12 days behind them. Unfortunately we are catching them up.

What's interesting is that we seem to see reductions in daily deaths at the end of every weekend followed by a compensating rise back onto the exponential trend again. I'm not sure what's causing that but presumably it's because people are less likely to travel to work those days.

Either way, the numbers are now rising very fast and we are probably only a few days from serious trouble unless something kicks in.

As for the trolls. They are not worth the effort but anyone continuing to play this down after this week's figures needs to be put on ignore.

Oops! That should have read 2 days. We could well be hitting Italy's daily death rates by the Friday.

[faraway saint]

Aye, ok, gies a rest. 

[Hiram Abiff]

Dr. John Lee, professor emeritus of pathology, is writing about the highly misleading definition and communication of „corona deaths“ in the British Spectator.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-

[Hiram Abiff]

A preliminary study by researchers at Stanford University showed that 20 to 25% of Covid19-positive patients tested additionally positive for other influenza or cold viruses.

German researcher Dr. Richard Capek argues in a quantitative analysis that the „Corona epidemic“ is in fact an „epidemic of tests“. Capek shows that while the number of tests has increased exponentially, the proportion of infections has remained stable and mortality has decreased, which speaks against an exponential spread of the virus itself (see below).

German Virology professor Dr. Carsten Scheller from the University of Würzburg explains in a podcast that Covid19 is definitely comparable with influenza and has so far even led to fewer deaths. Professor Scheller suspects that the exponential curves often presented in the media have more to do with the increasing number of tests than with an unusual spread of the virus itself. For countries like Germany, Italy is less of a role model than Japan and South Korea. Despite millions of Chinese tourists and only minimal social restrictions, these countries have not yet experienced a Covid19 crisis. One reason for this could be the wearing of mouth masks: This would hardly protect against infection, but would limit the spread of the virus by infected people.

The two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza. The reason for this overestimation is the greatly underestimated number of people already infected (without symptoms). As an example, the fully tested Italian community of Vo is mentioned, which showed 50 to 75% symptom-free test-positive persons.

[Hiram Abiff]

The director of the University Medical Center Hamburg, Dr. Ansgar Lohse, demands a quick end to curfews and contact bans. He argues that more people should be infected with corona. Kitas and schools should be reopened as soon as possible so that children and their parents can become immune through infection with the corona virus. The continuation of the strict measures would lead to an economic crisis, which would also cost lives, said the physician.