Coronavirus

[oaksoft]

Well that's Andy banned from Pie and Bovril for posting a link to a white supremacist website and dismissing the total collapse of the Italian health service as nothing more than "just another flu season".

Like I said earlier, there's no talking to this type of person.

[faraway saint]

9 hours ago, oaksoft said:

You are the leader of them and I didn't say I wanted them to be affected by it.

Try f**king reading before you open your mouth.

Two weeks ago you were wittering on about not understanding why I was using Italy as a comparison.

I said we were heading for Italy daily death numbers and were a fortnight behind them.

Today we are right on where Italy were but you are still wittering on about me over-reacting.

There's no talking to you.

I'm certainly not entertaining your opinion about my graphs.

I couldn't care less if you don't understand them.

My graphs were qualitatively good enough right up until the lockdown finally kicked in and the trend started to become linear.

The predictions will need to change because of that. If the linear trend remains as it is we've potentially bought ourselves another 3 weeks before we hit thousands of deaths per day. The picture will continue to change. The crucial point is whether we can flatten that curve before the NHS is overcome and right now we're on a knife edge. It could go either way.

I don't care if you don't understand that either.

You said................the section below.

So I'm not taking it seriously?

I've been looking, and quoting, facts.

You have continually preferred the worst case scenario, even backing up LPM who was predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths in the UK alone.

You prefer a "look how good I am" approach, confidently predicting wild numbers which I said straight away didn't stack up. 

I've been proved correct, you, again, are tragically wrong, and by quite a margin.

Oh yes, you used Italy, at the time the WORST hit country, as a comparison.

They have flattened out, you predicted we'd be on over 3,000 a day within the next few days.

You're predictions fell on their arse after a few days, see below.

Now, you clearly INDICATE people who don't agree with you might see things your way IF this tragedy AFFECTED THEIR family, absolutely shocking but it shows you'd rather people had some personal tragedy than admit you're so far up your own numbers your incapable of thinking if they are likely. 

You also try to put people down if they don't agree and they don't understand your graphs., another sign 

I have continually said let's wait and see without making predictions, one way or the other.

 

10 hours ago, oaksoft said:

It seems pretty clear that a stubborn minority are simply not taking this situation seriously and seem determined to underplay it.

Maybe it'll need to start affecting their families before things might start to sink in.

Right, my predictions for daily deaths based on the current trend are as follows for the next week or so are:

29th Mar - 279 Fact 209

30th Mar - 362 Fact 180

31st Mar - 469 Fact 381

1st Apr - 608 Fact 563

2nd Apr - 789 Fact 569

3rd Apr - 1023 Fact 684

4th Apr - 1327 Fact 708

5th Apr - 1721

6th Apr - 2232

7th Apr - 2895

8th Apr - 3755

At this point YOU PREDICTED 4,857, the facts are 3,294, a massive difference of 1,563, that's 32% OVER STATED.

Below was my immediate response to your pointless, and massively inaccurate, graph.

This would take the death toll to 16,479 by 8th April, 11 days. 

The total worldwide right now is sitting at 28,800, which will, obviously rise over the same period.

Italy is sitting on 9,134 excluding today, we are just over 1,000 when the first cases started within a day of each other. 

I'm not getting into your graph, just the facts don't, IMO, support your figures continually rising at the same rate.

You, I think, originally said 3,000 per day on 6th April, now that's moved to 7th/8th April.

As I've said, time will tell but it would take some going to massively overtake the Italians. 

[shull]

I agree with Lord Sugar

Even more so if people are sunbathing in their own gardens.

[Tommy]

Who is Andy ?    Just wondering since I haven't been reading the tit for tat shit being posted. 

[faraway saint]

4 minutes ago, Tommy said:

Who is Andy ?    Just wondering since I haven't been reading the tit for tat shit being posted. 

Thought at your age you would have known....................

[Tommy]

The Scottish Sun had reported that Catherine Calderwood had defied the government advice and travelled to her 2nd home 40 miles away and stayed overnight with her family.

Aye, do what I tell you and not what I do is her message. 

My wife and other within the MESH campaign have had lots of meetings with her and it is fair to say they don't like each others.

Lying 2 face bitch is the most common thing said about her by the MESH women. 

[faraway saint]

14 minutes ago, Tommy said:

The Scottish Sun had reported that Catherine Calderwood had defied the government advice and travelled to her 2nd home 40 miles away and stayed overnight with her family.

Aye, do what I tell you and not what I do is her message. 

My wife and other within the MESH campaign have had lots of meetings with her and it is fair to say they don't like each others.

Lying 2 face bitch is the most common thing said about her by the MESH women. 

This is where this blanket instruction of "stay home" has flaws.

I'm not defending her as, whither I see it as black and white as others isn't important but she was in a car with her family, in a house with her family and went home with her family, not mixing with any other people. 

This, IMO, is different from going to public places and certainly increasing the chances of catching and then spreading this virus.

But there has to be one rule for all as it's almost impossible to police as it stands.

As for your personal view on her, not really relevant and puts your view into as much personal as reasonable. 

So much so you posted it twice. 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by faraway saint

[Tommy]

35 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

This is where this blanket instruction of "stay home" has flaws.

I'm not defending her as, whither I see it as black and white as others isn't important but she was in a car with her family, in a house with her family and went home with her family, not mixing with any other people. 

This, IMO, is different from going to public places and certainly increasing the chances of catching and then spreading this virus.

But there has to be one rule for all as it's almost impossible to police as it stands.

As for your personal view on her, not really relevant and puts your view into as much personal as reasonable. 

So much so you posted it twice. 

 

Maybe your right and my personal views on her shouldn't have been posted but she is what she is.

Fact remained she broke her own rules.

Assuming her nightly broadcast will now be amended to say 2nd home owners can now travel all over the country to check their home is ok, 

 

 

[faraway saint]

3 minutes ago, Tommy said:

Maybe your right and my personal views on her shouldn't have been posted but she is what she is.

Fact remained she broke her own rules.

Assuming her nightly broadcast will now be amended to say 2nd home owners can now travel all over the country to check their home is ok, 

 

 

I'd imagine she'll apologise. 

[oaksoft]

3 hours ago, faraway saint said:

You said................the section below.

So I'm not taking it seriously?

I've been looking, and quoting, facts.

You have continually preferred the worst case scenario, even backing up LPM who was predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths in the UK alone.

You prefer a "look how good I am" approach, confidently predicting wild numbers which I said straight away didn't stack up. 

I've been proved correct, you, again, are tragically wrong, and by quite a margin.

Oh yes, you used Italy, at the time the WORST hit country, as a comparison.

They have flattened out, you predicted we'd be on over 3,000 a day within the next few days.

You're predictions fell on their arse after a few days, see below.

Now, you clearly INDICATE people who don't agree with you might see things your way IF this tragedy AFFECTED THEIR family, absolutely shocking but it shows you'd rather people had some personal tragedy than admit you're so far up your own numbers your incapable of thinking if they are likely. 

You also try to put people down if they don't agree and they don't understand your graphs., another sign 

I have continually said let's wait and see without making predictions, one way or the other.

 

Right, my predictions for daily deaths based on the current trend are as follows for the next week or so are:

29th Mar - 279 Fact 209

30th Mar - 362 Fact 180

31st Mar - 469 Fact 381

1st Apr - 608 Fact 563

2nd Apr - 789 Fact 569

3rd Apr - 1023 Fact 684

4th Apr - 1327 Fact 708

5th Apr - 1721

6th Apr - 2232

7th Apr - 2895

8th Apr - 3755

At this point YOU PREDICTED 4,857, the facts are 3,294, a massive difference of 1,563, that's 32% OVER STATED.

Below was my immediate response to your pointless, and massively inaccurate, graph.

This would take the death toll to 16,479 by 8th April, 11 days. 

The total worldwide right now is sitting at 28,800, which will, obviously rise over the same period.

Italy is sitting on 9,134 excluding today, we are just over 1,000 when the first cases started within a day of each other. 

I'm not getting into your graph, just the facts don't, IMO, support your figures continually rising at the same rate.

You, I think, originally said 3,000 per day on 6th April, now that's moved to 7th/8th April.

As I've said, time will tell but it would take some going to massively overtake the Italians. 

I am not wasting my time discussing any of this with you.

I honestly thought I'd made that clear before.

Go and bore someone else with your inability to understand numbers.

[faraway saint]

3 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I am not wasting my time discussing any of this with you.

I honestly thought I'd made that clear before.

Go and bore someone else with your inability to understand numbers.

Your usual response when your gubbed. 🤡

Inability to understand numbers, I understand yours, they're so far out I wonder if your on drugs. 

I work in engineering, I use numbers every day, that's in the real world, not on paper and graphs. 

[windae cleaner]

2 hours ago, Tommy said:

Who is Andy ?    Just wondering since I haven't been reading the tit for tat shit being posted. 

Tit for Tat shit sums this up perfectly

The country is meant to be on lockdown but in my job i have been to over 300 houses

Postmen a lot more every day

Work's van 3-4 people crammed together in the front as the police watch on

Gardeners and tree surgeons working close together in 3-4 groups

The streets which are normally quiet are full of dog walkers and families out walking

At one time my street had 30 people out about it was like a Mr Benn scene

They aren't telling us the true story this is more than a flu like story

[faraway saint]

10 minutes ago, windae cleaner said:

Tit for Tat shit sums this up perfectly

The country is meant to be on lockdown but in my job i have been to over 300 houses

Postmen a lot more every day

Work's van 3-4 people crammed together in the front as the police watch on

Gardeners and tree surgeons working close together in 3-4 groups

The streets which are normally quiet are full of dog walkers and families out walking

At one time my street had 30 people out about it was like a Mr Benn scene

They aren't telling us the true story this is more than a flu like story

What do you think "this is" then? 

[ALBIONSAINT]

 

There are some interesting studies appearing which are going against the current perceived wisdom. 

• In a 40-minute interview, the internationally renowned epidemiology professor Knut Wittkowski from New York explains that the measures taken on Covid19 are all counterproductive. Instead of „social distancing“, school closures, „lock down“, mouth masks, mass tests and vaccinations, life must continue as undisturbed as possible and immunity must be built up in the population as quickly as possible. According to all findings to date, Covid-19 is no more dangerous than previous influenza epidemics. Isolation now would only cause a „second wave“ later.
• The British Medical Journal (BMJ) reports that, according to the latest data from China, 78% of new test-positive individuals show no symptoms. This is a further indication of the relative harmlessness of the virus and raises the question whether the short-term increase in pneumonia in Wuhan may have had other causes, including the very strong winter smog.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Has Andy signed in with yet another user name?

[ALBIONSAINT]

I also think that people underestimate the power of stress on peoples physical health. Stress is a killer. 

[ALBIONSAINT]

1 minute ago, TPAFKATS said:

Has Andy signed in with yet another user name?

Sorry just me, been here a while, just trying to keep an open mind. 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

The Scottish Sun had reported that Catherine Calderwood had defied the government advice and travelled to her 2nd home 40 miles away and stayed overnight with her family.
Aye, do what I tell you and not what I do is her message. 
My wife and other within the MESH campaign have had lots of meetings with her and it is fair to say they don't like each others.
Lying 2 face bitch is the most common thing said about her by the MESH women. 

I try to avoid reading the sun.
Looks like CMO has royally f**ked up.
She has issued a statement apologising.

As a wee aside, was she caught by a local at her holiday home or did the sun sent a reporter and photographer on the same unnecessary journey as she did?

[FTOF]

8 minutes ago, windae cleaner said:

Tit for Tat shit sums this up perfectly

The country is meant to be on lockdown but in my job i have been to over 300 houses

Postmen a lot more every day

Work's van 3-4 people crammed together in the front as the police watch on

Gardeners and tree surgeons working close together in 3-4 groups

The streets which are normally quiet are full of dog walkers and families out walking

At one time my street had 30 people out about it was like a Mr Benn scene

They aren't telling us the true story this is more than a flu like story

I've been going out for a walk around 6.30/7.00 every evening and generally the streets have been totally deserted.

I went out yesterday about 3.00 and it was pretty busy. However, most people, including myself, were making sure that social distancing was well observed, as they passed each other. 

It will be back to an evening walk  for me from now on.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

I also think that people underestimate the power of stress on peoples physical health. Stress is a killer. 

Yes stress can be a killer however it's over a longer period not acute as covid 19 is.

[FTOF]

27 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

Yes stress can be a killer however it's over a longer period not acute as covid 19 is.

Combined with existing chronic mental health issues, stress could potentially have the same end result in someone with underlying health issues, who has severe infection of the virus.

Any effects of the lockdown combined with any treatment restrictions, on mental health conditions, in their many manifestations, could be hugely significant in the short term and long term.

I don't think we can underestimate the effects of stress on all individuals in the current situation.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by FTOF

[Hiram Abiff]

http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/images/InProportion2_Chart1.png

[Hiram Abiff]

In Germany, several law firms are preparing lawsuits against the measures and regulations that have been issued. A specialist in medical law writes in a press release: „The measures taken by the federal and state governments are blatantly unconstitutional and violate a multitude of basic rights of citizens in Germany to an unprecedented extent. This applies to all corona regulations of the 16 federal states. In particular, these measures are not justified by the Infection Protection Act, which was revised in no time at all just a few days ago. () Because the available figures and statistics show that corona infection is harmless in more than 95% of the population (or has probably even already occurred) and therefore does not represent a serious danger to the general public.“
A leaked confidential strategy paper of the German government shows that the German government, in conjunction with the media and some scientists, is apparently following a „shock strategy“ to make people afraid of a „worst case scenario“. The general population – for whom the virus is largely harmless – should be warned against „painful suffocation“; likewise, children playing in playgrounds could cause the „painful death“ of their parents.

[Hiram Abiff]

Combined with existing chronic mental health issues, stress could potentially have the same end result in someone with underlying health issues, who has severe infection of the virus.
Any effects of the lockdown combined with any treatment restrictions, on mental health conditions, in their many manifestations, could be hugely significant in the short term and long term.
I don't think we can underestimate the effects of stress on all individuals in the current situation.
 
 

There’s only 1 illness and 1 cause of death in town now

The rest are expendable

[faraway saint]

^^^^^^ Why don't you nip over to Pie & Bovril, Oaky is missing you.