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faraway saint

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1 hour ago, TPAFKATS said:
2 hours ago, oaksoft said:
FFS. Go and have a day off from the forum bud. It's a win for everyone if you do that.

He's still only interested in point scoring and getting the last word.

I don't know what drives this sort of behaviour but it's not coming from a happy place IMO.

In the meantime, if the BBC reports are correct, the UK came close to 1000 deaths in the last day ( adding up all the nations I think we're at 936 or thereabouts but I'll wait for worldometer).

If that's true the death rate has gone well over the recent linear trend.

Edited by oaksoft
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2 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I don't know what drives this sort of behaviour but it's not coming from a happy place IMO.

In the meantime, if the BBC reports are correct, the UK came close to 1000 deaths in the last day ( adding up all the nations I think we're at 936 or thereabouts but I'll wait for worldometer).

If that's true the death rate has gone well over the recent linear trend.

^^^^^ Trying hard to get a pal. 😂😂🤔

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On 3/28/2020 at 3:38 PM, oaksoft said:

3) The trend line is then extrapolated to predict where we'll be over the next couple of weeks. Going further than that with this basic model is not worthwhile...

Right, my predictions for daily deaths based on the current trend are as follows for the next week or so are:

                                      Actual Numbers

29th Mar - 279                   209 

30th Mar - 362                   180

31st Mar - 469                    381

1st Apr - 608                       563

2nd Apr - 789                    569

3rd Apr - 1023                    684

4th Apr - 1327                    708

5th Apr - 1721                     621

6th Apr - 2232                   439

7th Apr - 2895                   786

8th Apr - 3755                    938

Cracking prediction that, the only one close to being correct.  :lol:

Thank feck this is the last day of Mystic Oaky's awful predictions.

Oh, just because people aren't running around screaming and scaremongering doesn't mean they're not taking it seriously.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Cracking prediction that, the only one close to being correct.  :lol:

Thank feck this is the last day of Mystic Oaky's awful predictions.

Oh, just because people aren't running around screaming and scaremongering doesn't mean they're not taking it seriously.

 

 

You really are a f**king idiot bud.

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2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

You really are a f**king idiot bud.

How? You were absolutely f**king miles out. Quoting numbers that hadn't been seen anywhere in the world. We all just don't get it though because you're too clever 😂. Let this one go and hope everybody forgets. 

You could always kid on you're panic buying bog roll to take the heat off. Shit. Wait.... 

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Guest TPAFKATS
How? You were absolutely f**king miles out. Quoting numbers that hadn't been seen anywhere in the world. We all just don't get it though because you're too clever [emoji23]. Let this one go and hope everybody forgets.  You could always kid on you're panic buying bog roll to take the heat off. Shit. Wait.... 

 

 

 

Yeah, his figures might have been out but the actual figures are awful and we are on a worse trajectory than Italy.

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12 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

 

 

Yeah, his figures might have been out but the actual figures are awful and we are on a worse trajectory than Italy.

Hisnfigures aren't just out, they are absolutely miles out. Laughably so. 

 

23000ish people died in the world today due to hunger and malnutrition. Arguably an easier fix than the fix for a new virus. For the most part that doesn't affect us in the developed world so people don't really give a f**k.

 

Both tragic, but let's not be sensationalist about just 1 of them because it affects or has great potential to affect us while the other doesn't. 

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9 minutes ago, slapsalmon said:

Hisnfigures aren't just out, they are absolutely miles out. Laughably so. 

 

23000ish people died in the world today due to hunger and malnutrition. Arguably an easier fix than the fix for a new virus. For the most part that doesn't affect us in the developed world so people don't really give a f**k.

 

Both tragic, but let's not be sensationalist about just 1 of them because it affects or has great potential to affect us while the other doesn't. 

Sorry to inform you you have just been categorised as.................

Stupid

Not taking "this" seriously

Part of a gang

Oh, not understanding a stupid graph. :lol:

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1 minute ago, faraway saint said:

Sorry to inform you you have just been categorised as.................

Stupid

Not taking "this" seriously

Part of a gang

Oh, not understanding a stupid graph. :lol:

😂

I've not given an opinion on it deliberately. Nobody has any idea how seriously I'm taking it because I don't want involved. 

What I understand from that graph is that the graph in question is a bag of shite. I'm taking that as seriously as it deserves to be taken. 

 

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3 minutes ago, slapsalmon said:

😂

I've not given an opinion on it deliberately. Nobody has any idea how seriously I'm taking it because I don't want involved. 

What I understand from that graph is that the graph in question is a bag of shite. I'm taking that as seriously as it deserves to be taken. 

 

Well feck off then if you're not in the gang. :lol:

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On 4/5/2020 at 7:44 AM, faraway saint said:

You said................the section below.

So I'm not taking it seriously?

I've been looking, and quoting, facts.

You have continually preferred the worst case scenario, even backing up LPM who was predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths in the UK alone.

You prefer a "look how good I am" approach, confidently predicting wild numbers which I said straight away didn't stack up. 

I've been proved correct, you, again, are tragically wrong, and by quite a margin.

Oh yes, you used Italy, at the time the WORST hit country, as a comparison.

They have flattened out, you predicted we'd be on over 3,000 a day within the next few days.

You're predictions fell on their arse after a few days, see below.

Now, you clearly INDICATE people who don't agree with you might see things your way IF this tragedy AFFECTED THEIR family, absolutely shocking but it shows you'd rather people had some personal tragedy than admit you're so far up your own numbers your incapable of thinking if they are likely. :thumbsdown

You also try to put people down if they don't agree and they don't understand your graphs., another sign 

I have continually said let's wait and see without making predictions, one way or the other.

 

Right, my predictions for daily deaths based on the current trend are as follows for the next week or so are:

29th Mar - 279 Fact 209

30th Mar - 362 Fact 180

31st Mar - 469 Fact 381

1st Apr - 608 Fact 563

2nd Apr - 789 Fact 569

3rd Apr - 1023 Fact 684

4th Apr - 1327 Fact 708

5th Apr - 1721

6th Apr - 2232

7th Apr - 2895

8th Apr - 3755

At this point YOU PREDICTED 4,857, the facts are 3,294, a massive difference of 1,563, that's 32% OVER STATED.

Below was my immediate response to your pointless, and massively inaccurate, graph.

This would take the death toll to 16,479 by 8th April, 11 days. 

The total worldwide right now is sitting at 28,800, which will, obviously rise over the same period.

Italy is sitting on 9,134 excluding today, we are just over 1,000 when the first cases started within a day of each other. 

I'm not getting into your graph, just the facts don't, IMO, support your figures continually rising at the same rate.

You, I think, originally said 3,000 per day on 6th April, now that's moved to 7th/8th April.

As I've said, time will tell but it would take some going to massively overtake the Italians. 

 

On 4/5/2020 at 11:43 AM, oaksoft said:

I am not wasting my time discussing any of this with you.

I honestly thought I'd made that clear before.

Go and bore someone else with your inability to understand numbers.

Right, just catching up on this thread and I’m about to commit the cardinal sin of responding to posts before finishing the thread. In doing so, I will probably make a rip roaring khunt of myself.

I’m on record as saying I’m a fan of both your posting styles and content on here, polar opposite as they are.

On this occasion tho Oaky, I think you’ve let yourself down a wee bit.

Agree with it or disagree with it, the  above  post must be just about the most fulsome post I’ve ever seen FS make on here (didnae think he had it in him).

Your response is poor I’m afraid. He took the time post what he did and it was worthy of a reasoned response.

I think your guilty on this thread of posting responses when you think you have one and then just playing the “I’m not discussing this with you” card when you don’t. 

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Just now, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said:

 

Right, just catching up on this thread and I’m about to commit the cardinal sin of responding to posts before finishing the thread. In doing so, I will probably make a rip roaring khunt of myself.

I’m on record as saying I’m a fan of both your posting styles and content on here, polar opposite as they are.

On this occasion tho Oaky, I think you’ve let yourself down a wee bit.

Agree with it or disagree with it, the  above  post must be just about the most fulsome post I’ve ever seen FS make on here (didnae think he had it in him).

Your response is poor I’m afraid. He took the time post what he did and it was worthy of a reasoned response.

I think your guilty on this thread of posting responses when you think you have one and then just playing the “I’m not discussing this with you” card when you don’t. 

Cheques in the post. 

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Guest TPAFKATS
Hisnfigures aren't just out, they are absolutely miles out. Laughably so. 
 
23000ish people died in the world today due to hunger and malnutrition. Arguably an easier fix than the fix for a new virus. For the most part that doesn't affect us in the developed world so people don't really give a f**k.
 
Both tragic, but let's not be sensationalist about just 1 of them because it affects or has great potential to affect us while the other doesn't. 


Hisnfigures aren't just out, they are absolutely miles out. Laughably so. 
 
23000ish people died in the world today due to hunger and malnutrition. Arguably an easier fix than the fix for a new virus. For the most part that doesn't affect us in the developed world so people don't really give a f**k.
 
Both tragic, but let's not be sensationalist about just 1 of them because it affects or has great potential to affect us while the other doesn't. 


I'm really not sure where you are going with the whataboutery in this post.
You seem to have completely ignored my point about the amount of deaths we are having.

Also, where is the sensationalism?

I've just read a report stating deaths could peak around 3000 a day in UK later in around 10 days time.

That's not far off what oaksoft said albeit his dates were out.

I really hope he continues to be wrong.
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20 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

 

 

 


I'm really not sure where you are going with the whataboutery in this post.
You seem to have completely ignored my point about the amount of deaths we are having.

Also, where is the sensationalism?

I've just read a report stating deaths could peak around 3000 a day in UK later in around 10 days time.

That's not far off what oaksoft said albeit his dates were out.

I really hope he continues to be wrong.

 

 

 

Did ye, aye? 

I just read a report we're, that's the UK, not likely to get even close to that figure. 

What do you actually, and I know this will hurt your head, THINK the numbers will be? 

His dates were out? :lol:

Dig dig dig............................you and Oaky, what a pair. :byebye

Edited by faraway saint
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1 hour ago, TPAFKATS said:

 

 

 


I'm really not sure where you are going with the whataboutery in this post.
You seem to have completely ignored my point about the amount of deaths we are having.

Also, where is the sensationalism?

I've just read a report stating deaths could peak around 3000 a day in UK later in around 10 days time.

That's not far off what oaksoft said albeit his dates were out.

I really hope he continues to be wrong.

 

 

 

He didn't carry his on that far but follow his graph and see where his daily deaths would have been in 10 days time. Absolutely miles away from 3000, it would have been the end of the world on his graph.

 

I didn't ignore it, I said it's tragic, as is 23k people a day dying from hunger.

Its not whataboutery either. Every man and their dog is on a high horse with this, more people die from trivial things every day, and none of those were watching having a pissing contest give a f**k because it doesn't affect them. That's not whataboutery. That's the selfish nature of people. Don't give a f**k until it has a chance of affecting them. 

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Guest TPAFKATS



He didn't carry his on that far but follow his graph and see where his daily deaths would have been in 10 days time. Absolutely miles away from 3000, it would have been the end of the world on his graph.
 
I didn't ignore it, I said it's tragic, as is 23k people a day dying from hunger.
Its not whataboutery either. Every man and their dog is on a high horse with this, more people die from trivial things every day, and none of those were watching having a pissing contest give a f**k because it doesn't affect them. That's not whataboutery. That's the selfish nature of people. Don't give a f**k until it has a chance of affecting them. 


It's literally the definition of whataboutery. I see how many are dying of virus, but what those dying of (insert stat on deaths from completely unrelated cause) ...
Again, I'm not sure why? Yes people are selfish dicks but that's not news.
Given this is an unprecedented event for all of us you'd expect folk to pay attention and give a f**k. Although there were cunts on here telling us they were right to have a family party during this.

Its not about getting on a high horse, it's about pointing out how serious this is.
More importantly, it's about pointing out how out of control it would be without lock down. Particularly now that ONS figures seem to show thev"official"death numbers are an underestimate.

There's certainly no love lost between oaksoft and me but he went to great length to explain his graphs and workings. Folk seemed to just want to find fault with it as opposed to discussing what it was addressing.

Personally I was looking at other methodologies and modelling from "official" sources and in my opinion he'd have been better presenting those but hey, ho.
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