Coronavirus

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Everyone looks like

Scottish Gov announced it at daily briefing.

Scottish media reported it immefiately.

BBC and ITN both ran it as a feature, so did reporting Scotland and Scotland today/tonight.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

It allows you to get a moving snapshot of how far the virus has spread without waiting for infection and death figures to tell you.
That could in theory buy you some more time to implement some controls.
It can also educate you about how the virus spreads and which demographics are best at overcoming it. There's a whole heap of data you could collect for analysis.
In practice, testing would need to be repeated regularly.
For those treating covid patients or vulnerable people, testing should be very regular indeed for obvious reasons but for everyone else, less regular testing would be enough.
.

Not sure there is much to be gained from the proposal to send army onto care homes to test.

Given how widespread the virus appears to be in this environment, they should already be isolating all residents and wearing appropriate PPE.

In addition as you say as the test is only valid for time it is done, these tests would require to be carried out daily until a positive is recorded.

[faraway saint]

5 hours ago, DougJamie said:

Ever crossed your mind that may well be political ?

53% deaths of COVID19 in care homes in Scotland...…………. ooops they missed that one

You do know that was only over a 1 week period.......................................or you probably don't. 

The REAL percentage, still depressingly high, is 39% since the outbreak started.

As the numbers passing away in hospitals continues to drop the percentage in care homes, if it doesn't drop at the same rate, will increase. 

Of the 2,272 deaths linked to the virus since the outbreak began, just over half have happened in hospitals, with 39% in care homes and 9% at home or in non-institutional settings.

Edited May 1, 2020 by faraway saint

[TPAFKA Jersey 2]

Slight relaxation of lockdown announced in Jersey today. A few new measures, but key ones are that as from tomorrow we are allowed out for up to 4 hours (instead of 1) and the rationale has been stretched from only essential shopping, medical reasons, or exercise to include “any outdoor activity” (which to me means just about anything). Also we can now socialise with up to 2 people from outside our own households in an outdoor area whilst observing physical distancing of 2 metres.

Better than nothing I suppose. 

[faraway saint]

6 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said:

Slight relaxation of lockdown announced in Jersey today. A few new measures, but key ones are that as from tomorrow we are allowed out for up to 4 hours (instead of 1) and the rationale has been stretched from only essential shopping, medical reasons, or exercise to include “any outdoor activity” (which to me means just about anything). Also we can now socialise with up to 2 people from outside our own households in an outdoor area whilst observing physical distancing of 2 metres.

Better than nothing I suppose. 

Interesting to see how this works.

This idea of socialising with 2 people outwith the household will, IMO, just be abused and could see a rise in infection and fatalities.

However, while this virus is still around I think there's going to be fatalities no matter what, the lockdown has just been to allow the NHS to cope.

 

[faraway saint]

Numbers rise today, 739 from 674.

All this talk of exit strategies really should shelved.

The more talk the more people see it as a reason to start breaking the current instructions.

At this rate it should be weeks before ANY consideration should be given to any changes IMO.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Slight relaxation of lockdown announced in Jersey today. A few new measures, but key ones are that as from tomorrow we are allowed out for up to 4 hours (instead of 1) and the rationale has been stretched from only essential shopping, medical reasons, or exercise to include “any outdoor activity” (which to me means just about anything). Also we can now socialise with up to 2 people from outside our own households in an outdoor area whilst observing physical distancing of 2 metres.
Better than nothing I suppose. 

This should be managable on a small island if the virus is under control and travel into Jersey is controlled.

However as it is a small island then an increase in transmission during this time of increased socialising could be devastating.

I'm assuming this has all been looked at by the health authorities on the island prior to coming to this decision.

Enjoy your new found freedoms!

[Guest TPAFKATS]

4 hours?
That mean you can get a round of golf in then?

Not if its a medal

[faraway saint]

35 minutes ago, Yflab said:

4 hours?

That mean you can get a round of golf in then?

2 rounds at Barshaw. 

[FTOF]

46 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Numbers rise today, 739 from 674.

All this talk of exit strategies really should shelved.

The more talk the more people see it as a reason to start breaking the current instructions.

At this rate it should be weeks before ANY consideration should be given to any changes IMO.

It doesn't help when the bumbling fool tell us that "we're past the peak" and "on the downward slope".

[faraway saint]

37 minutes ago, FTOF said:

It doesn't help when the bumbling fool tell us that "we're past the peak" and "on the downward slope".

We are, almost certainly, past the peak, IMO, although the addition of care homes has made that less clear.

We're showing no real signs of going down, certainly not enough to be talking about this next stage.

My feeling is the lockdown wasn't stringent enough and any moves soon could be a mistake.

There isn't a clear black and white time when the lockdown can be lifted, no mater when it's done there will be criticism. 

PS While I believe we're past the peak no one knows what will happen when things get relaxed. 

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by faraway saint

[Leatherface]

18 hours ago, bazil85 said:

Can see the similarities... She's been praised for her level headedness and leadership during all this 🤣.

Always going to have the haters.

Praised? By who? You? She doesn’t have a fecking clue what’s going on or what to do about it.

[salmonbuddie]

Praised? By who? You? She doesn’t have a fecking clue what’s going on or what to do about it.

 

[emoji23][emoji1787][emoji23]

 

 

[faraway saint]

4 hours ago, Leatherface said:

Praised? By who? You? She doesn’t have a fecking clue what’s going on or what to do about it.

Her honesty and straightforward language is very refreshing....................

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by faraway saint

[shull]

Covid test result is back. I am mightily relieved. 

 

[faraway saint]

2 minutes ago, shull said:

Covid test result is back. I am mightily relieved. 

 

Never thought you could catch all them other things from a blow up doll? 

[TPAFKA Jersey 2]

17 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Interesting to see how this works.

This idea of socialising with 2 people outwith the household will, IMO, just be abused and could see a rise in infection and fatalities.

However, while this virus is still around I think there's going to be fatalities no matter what, the lockdown has just been to allow the NHS to cope.

 

 

16 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

This should be managable on a small island if the virus is under control and travel into Jersey is controlled.

However as it is a small island then an increase in transmission during this time of increased socialising could be devastating.

I'm assuming this has all been looked at by the health authorities on the island prior to coming to this decision.

Enjoy your new found freedoms!

Yeah they’ve pretty much sad they now expect the number of cases to rise as a result of the relaxation. They’ve built a new temporary hospital and I think they had been waiting until that was completed to take take these new steps. Travel to and from the island is still pretty much only on an emergency basis. The current figures are 286 cases, 24 deaths, 197 recoveries and 2500 negative tests. 

16 hours ago, Yflab said:

4 hours?

That mean you can get a round of golf in then?

As long as you’re no playing with Jimmy H. 

[antrin]

An interesting article from FT.

The writer is a senior fellow at Harvard University and an adviser to the UK Department of Health and Social Care

Covid-19 is perhaps the reckoning for ignoring two things that might once have seemed unrelated. Leaders were urged to prepare for a viral pandemic, and to tackle widening gaps between the health of rich and poor. Covid-19 is the reckoning. We are repeatedly told that age is the main risk factor with this virus. But so, it seems, is being poor. 

“Why are you surprised?” asks my friend Jo, an intensive care nurse in the National Health Service. “It’s nothing new.” The patients Jo sees are disproportionately overweight or obese. Many have type-2 diabetes, kidney problems or hypertension. People with those conditions, she points out, were always more prone to end up in ICU. They have weakened immune systems which often relate to chronic stress from low-income jobs, poor diet and physical inactivity. 

We urgently need to understand the connections between these conditions and Covid-19. In France, the US and UK, figures suggest that patients who are overweight are at significantly greater risk. In New York City, a study of 4,000 Covid-19 patients found that obesity is the second strongest predictor, after their age, of whether someone over 60 will need critical care. Surprisingly for a virus that hits the lungs, the researchers say that excess body fat seems to matter more than heart or lung disease, or smoking — perhaps because obesity triggers chronic inflammation, leaving sufferers more susceptible. 

A second New York study says that being overweight is the main driver of whether younger people will be hospitalised with Covid-19. Patients under 60, the researchers found, are twice as likely to need intensive care if they have a body mass index over 30, and 3.6 times more likely to need it with a BMI over 35. Once in ICU, we must remember, survival odds are tragically only 50:50.

Looking back to the swine flu outbreak, it is clear this should have been anticipated. In 2009, 51 per cent of Californians who died from the H1N1 Influenza A were obese: this was 2.2 times more than the prevalence of obesity in the state population. Obesity is well known to be a risk factor for chronic health conditions, including strokes, heart attacks and hypertension. One group of scientists last week called on healthcare systems to start systematically measuring the “metabolic parameters” of patients: body mass index, waist circumference, glucose and insulin levels, in order to calculate their risk of complications from the disease. It is incredible this isn’t already happening. 

This is not just about body weight. People of normal weights can have impaired metabolic health. A recent commentary in the journal Nature stated that “patients with type-2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome might have up to 10 times greater risk of death when they contract Covid-19”.

Both of these conditions disproportionately afflict people of south Asian and Afro-Caribbean descent, who are being hit hard. We need to know whether metabolic syndrome might in some way explain the shocking death toll of Filipino nurses in the UK and the US. They tend to give their all to the job; some may have been working without adequate protection. But are they also physically more vulnerable?

To find out, we need better data and an open debate. Last week, three-quarters of Covid-19 patients in 268 NHS ICUs were overweight or obese, according to the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre. Almost half were younger than 60. These figures do not include some of the oldest people, who are dying in care homes. Nevertheless, they suggest that locking down everyone over 70 may not be the best way to stratify risk. 

I am not arguing that slim, fit people are safe. Our immune systems tend to weaken as we age, and our metabolisms slow down (which in turn can lead to weight gain). Experts are also looking at whether “viral load”, — repeated exposure — may explain why some young, healthy professionals treating the sick are struck down by this virus. But if this growing body of evidence is anywhere near the mark, it suggests that the UK and US will fare especially badly in the crisis. France’s chief epidemiologist has already taken a swipe at the US, warning that Americans are likely to suffer the most from Covid-19 because obesity is “a major risk factor”. 

The US is the fattest nation in the OECD, and the UK is the fattest in Europe after Portugal. Both countries also have abhorrent health inequalities. In some parts of England, there is now a 12-year gap in healthy life expectancy between rich and poor. Deficient housing, pollution, insecure work, poor diets: all of these drive chronic disease, which strikes at younger and younger ages. We have loaded the dice against the poor and this is being cruelly exposed by the pandemic. 

It is notable that Japan has recorded relatively low mortality rates, despite being the world’s oldest society. There are many possible explanations. But Japan has low obesity and its government has an ambitious, successful public health programme. 

How might we arm our populations against this virus, and for the future? We must turbocharge public health programmes that can reverse chronic conditions such as type-2 diabetes. We should realise that lockdowns which prevent people from exercising will store up trouble. And not bracket people simply by age.

There is much more to learn about Covid-19. But it seems clear that poverty, obesity and its related diseases make some people old before their time.

[ALBIONSAINT]

1 hour ago, faraway saint said:

Never thought you could catch all them other things from a blow up doll? 

Depends who you are sharing it with 😂

[bazil85]

8 hours ago, Leatherface said:

Praised? By who? You? She doesn’t have a fecking clue what’s going on or what to do about it.

That makes almost every leader in every majority impacted country in the world... 

Do you not think politicising a global pandemic in this way is a little off colour? 

[faraway saint]

37 minutes ago, ALBIONSAINT said:

Depends who you are sharing it with 😂

You'd share a blow up doll? 

[FTOF]

7 hours ago, salmonbuddie said:

 

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-majority-scots-back-nicola-sturgeon-during-pandemic-snp-voting-intention-2732064

[salmonbuddie]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-majority-scots-back-nicola-sturgeon-during-pandemic-snp-voting-intention-2732064

That's one of the many reasons I keep laughing at those posts.

[emoji846]

[Cookie Monster]

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-majority-scots-back-nicola-sturgeon-during-pandemic-snp-voting-intention-2732064

Looking like another majority government in a parliament that was set up to proportionately represent the country. With the belief that no party would ever hold a majority.[emoji16]

Next stop, the end of Westminster rule.[emoji16]

[faraway saint]

Todays number drops to 621 from yesterdays 739.

Still a good bit above any other country, the USA apart.

It took Spain & Italy around 3 weeks to get from these sort of numbers to where they are now, in the 300's.

While it's fairly obvious every country is different is gives an idea how long it could take the UK to get into that area.