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faraway saint

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Surely you can’t blame Nicola for the care home deaths?

I mean, hindsight is a wonderful thing but who could have foreseen that throwing sick and elderly people without testing out of hospitals and into care homes would cause thousands of deaths?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/25/nicola-sturgeon-accepts-care-home-transfer-policy-contributed/amp/

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Shocking article from the Guardian, arguing that profits are more important than people
 

Then again, what more can you expect from a newspaper that sided with the south in the American civil war and argued against the abolishment of slavery.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/14/the-past-three-months-have-proved-it-the-costs-of-lockdown-are-too-high

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On 6/26/2020 at 11:09 AM, TPAFKATS said:

He's all over the place consistently contradicting himself, just to say England's doing great and Scotland should be following them.

UK locked down with 72 deaths in a day. England is opening up the High risk parts of the economy with over 140 deaths per day.
This is in the middle of a hot dry summer, christ knows what will happen when it gets colder and damper.

Scotland is trying to remain in lockdown a little longer so we don't get hit as bad when lockdown ends and cases invariably rise again. It's a bit pish now, for a better gain at the other end.
 

Correct

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52 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:

I see from quotes the umpteen times discredited and rinsed idiot is attempting to respond to me again. You are on ignore you total roaster, I would advise others to do likewise. Let's see how long he lasts this time ????

Boaby can't keep away. You make a good pair. Both unaware of the irony. 

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18 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

COVID deaths in England & Wales is 47,104 according to ONS. 

This compares with excess winter mortality (adjusted for population) since 1950 of just under 3.5 million 

Last 5 years average: 35,501

Last 9 years average: 31,139

2000-2010 average: 29,516

1990-2000 average: 41,559

1980-1999 average: 44,518

1970-1980 average: 48,901

1960-1970 average: 73,569

1950-1960 average: 81,662

selected years:

2017/18: 49,696

2014/15: 44,829

1999/2000: 55,493

1998/99: 53,837

1996/97: 55,245

1985/86: 58,937

1975/76: 69,828

1969/70: 82,375

1967/68: 86,059

1962/63: 113,096

1958/59: 101,103

1955/56: 88,994

1952/53: 110,002

1950/51: 141,995

We could have saved 3.5 million lives in U.K. since 1950 if we’d had an annual lockdown.

Sickening to think that all those people died just so that businesses could make a profit 

 

This years figures are WITH lockdown. Who knows how high that figure would have been WITHOUT. Your stats only suggest that the lockdown has stopped a massive increase due to the virus.

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4 hours ago, stlucifer said:

This years figures are WITH lockdown. Who knows how high that figure would have been WITHOUT. Your stats only suggest that the lockdown has stopped a massive increase due to the virus.

If lockdown happened at or before peak of infections then it’s likely that lockdown had no impact.

What we do know is that influenza peaks and declines every year without locking down. This is because, like coronavirus, it’s seasonal.

Despite @TPAFKATS claiming to have solved the answer as to why viruses like these are seasonal, something which has evaded scientists for hundreds of years, nobody really knows why they peak and decline. 
 

Comparing all cause mortality in Scotland since the first Covid death with the flu season in 99/00 you can see the epidemic graphs look similar. The 2000 line appears to take a sharper rise to the peak but that is only because the peak happened in the week after new year and their is a bit of a lag in registering deaths over xmas and new year. In reality, the rise to that peak would have been smoother. 
 

The rapid rise to a peak and then the decline happens every single year. It follows the same pattern and over the same time period. 
 

Why do you think you think that Covid would have behaved any differently? 
 

 

 

7E88016A-720F-46CC-B8F6-FD655C08C6A0.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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On 6/21/2020 at 4:50 PM, faraway saint said:

Today's number, 43, see's another, accepting every deaths a tragedy for the families involved, massive drop in fatalities.

There has been a 42% drop this week from the first week of this month, considerable.

The total numbers & daily averages for the first three weeks of June have been.............

1st - 7th 1608/230

8th - 14th 1156/165

15th - 21st 934/133

So, despite the lockdown being officially relaxed, more so in England, the numbers continue to drop.

Despite the public doing as they like over the last 6 weeks, using VE day as a starting point, the numbers continue to drop.

Seems the virus is on it's way out. 

 

 

 

22nd - 28th 811/116 so despite this week not being great and some lunatics screaming England is a disease ridden country the UK figures drop again

Another 14% weekly drop, a massive 50% drop since the first week of June. 

Fingers crossed it keeps dropping as things start to get closer to normal. 

 

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1 minute ago, faraway saint said:

22nd - 28th 811/116 so despite this week not being great and some lunatics screaming England is a disease ridden country the UK figures drop again

Another 14% weekly drop, a massive 50% drop since the first week of June. 

Fingers crossed it keeps dropping as things start to get closer to normal. 

 

Many of the deaths that are being reported now are historical. The weekly ONS and NRS reports give deaths by date of occurrence as opposed to date of reporting. 

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The average number of all cause deaths over the latest reported 3 weeks in Scotland from the NRS is 1,062.

This compares with an average of 1,242 deaths per week in Scotland in the 11 weeks prior to the first reported Covid death in Scotland.

It compares with average weekly deaths of 1,109 for the whole of 2019.

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7 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

If lockdown happened at or before peak of infections then it’s likely that lockdown had no impact.

What we do know is that influenza peaks and declines every year without locking down. This is because, like coronavirus, it’s seasonal.

Despite @TPAFKATS claiming to have solved the answer as to why viruses like these are seasonal, something which has evaded scientists for hundreds of years, nobody really knows why they peak and decline. 
 

Comparing all cause mortality in Scotland since the first Covid death with the flu season in 99/00 you can see the epidemic graphs look similar. The 2000 line appears to take a sharper rise to the peak but that is only because the peak happened in the week after new year and their is a bit of a lag in registering deaths over xmas and new year. In reality, the rise to that peak would have been smoother. 
 

The rapid rise to a peak and then the decline happens every single year. It follows the same pattern and over the same time period. 
 

Why do you think you think that Covid would have behaved any differently? 
 

 

 

7E88016A-720F-46CC-B8F6-FD655C08C6A0.jpeg

Your first sentence explains things as you start with "If" and contains "likely".

It means the majority of experts tend to disagree with your assumptions and believe the lockdown had, and continues to have, an important positive impact on the scale of infection. I choose to side with those who study these things day in, day out.

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23 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

Your first sentence explains things as you start with "If" and contains "likely".

It means the majority of experts tend to disagree with your assumptions and believe the lockdown had, and continues to have, an important positive impact on the scale of infection. I choose to side with those who study these things day in, day out.

The reason I use the words “if” and “likely” is because nobody really knows.

There are many experts who disagree that the lockdown has had a positive impact.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/the-costs-are-too-high-the-scientist-who-wants-lockdown-lifted-faster-sunetra-gupta

I choose not to side with anybody but to educate myself and make up my own mind. 

The SAGE minutes quite clearly show that the “experts” that you have “sided” with advised against lockdown before Boris took the political decision to lockdown. They also advised against closing schools, stopping mass gatherings or wearing masks.


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-publishes-sage-minutes

Scientists can’t even explain the seasonality of viruses despite looking at it “day in, day out” for hundreds of years.

Yet you believe they’ve suddenly figured out how to beat a seasonal virus in a matter of 6 months? 

Edited by Sue Denim
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Always good to look at the evidence and look at things in proportion. 


Looking at the ONS stats and using the all cause mortality 5 year average over the past 3 weeks as the benchmark, the number of excess deaths in England & Wales since last summer leading up to the Covid crisis was 37,017.

And 19/20 was a very MILD flu season.

This compares with 48,218 deaths where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate (and 95% had at least 1 other comorbidity).

Indeed, the flu season in 2020 was so mild that the number of deaths in 2020 before Covid arrived was actually   5,209 LESS than the 5 year average for the corresponding weeks.

There were 15,768 FEWER deaths in England & Wales in 2020 before Covid compared with the same period in 2018. 

Helps to explain the large increase in deaths since the start of the crisis.

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Australia hasn’t been hit badly by Covid.

However it’s worth noting that Covid arrived in Australia out with the flu / coronavirus season.

And whereas the U.K. had a very mind flu season in the lead up to Covid with many fewer deaths than normal, Australia mysteriously had their “worst flu season on record” in 2019.....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/early-outbreaks-to-blame-for-worst-flu-season-on-record/11949320

 

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Peru locked down on 16th March. Brazil didn’t lock down.

See attached graph.

Why isn’t lockdown working in Peru asks the Guardian? The “experts” say it’s because of people’s behaviour.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/20/peru-coronavirus-lockdown-new-cases
 

It just looks to me as though the virus is following seasonality regardless of lockdown. What do you think @stlucifer?

 

B5348117-780B-427B-BD56-03D54C43B245.jpeg

91EC1512-5C4D-431D-90D2-F0A9F2B2C68E.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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My wife was talking to her friend, who has been seconded by NHS England to re-write their Covid strategy (yes,. they do have one :rolleyes:).

She has had to sift through all of the scientific research on Covid and she's finding it very difficult, as there are so many conflicting scientific studies on Covid and lots of gaps in knowledge, regarding the life cycle of virus.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, FTOF said:

My wife was talking to her friend, who has been seconded by NHS England to re-write their Covid strategy (yes,. they do have one :rolleyes:).

She has had to sift through all of the scientific research on Covid and she's finding it very difficult, as there are so many conflicting scientific studies on Covid and lots of gaps in knowledge, regarding the life cycle of virus.

This became very apparent fairly early on.

Hardly a week has gone past without some expert/scientist coming up with their version of events.

No wonder there have been so many mistakes made by governments and the public don't know what the feck to do. 

 

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