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faraway saint

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4 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Eh? :blink:

While the numbers in Scotland have been encouraging you surely have to remember the difference in population, density etc? 

The numbers in England have been dropping, despite what some people prefer to talk about, dramatically over the last month.

There's also the continued issues with the economy.

 

"While we're on Sweden, and I'm not defending their decision, have around twice the population of Scotland with, approx, 20% more fatalities.

If they are having a nightmare, with no lockdown and the economy in a better state than most, then what does that suggest about Scotland?"

Double standards?

That was an earlier quote from you completely ignoring the population density in Sweden in a summary comparison to Scotland. Why do you feel it's one rule comparing England and Scotland but a different comparing Scotland and Sweden?

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4 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

ONS weekly death stats just out. Waiting on the NRS stats. 
 

First look shows that we are now at NEGATIVE excess deaths.

65 less deaths occurred last week compared with the 5 year average in England & Wales.

This despite 846 COVID deaths mentioned in deaths certificates. 

88 less deaths in England.

Compared with the average deaths in the first 10 weeks of the year before the first COVID death, there were 2,386 LESS deaths last week.

Compared with week 2 in January this year, there were 4,719 LESS deaths. 

Going to be interesting to see how this gets spinned by the media and the lockdown fanatics....

 

Great news, the figures suggest your prediction that lockdown will kill far more people than the virus is wrong. Agreed?

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The NRS stars showing where deaths happened is very revealing.
 

There have been more or less no extra deaths in hospitals during the crisis. There have been 1,756 COVID deaths in Scottish hospitals but 1,626 less deaths of other causes compared with the average.

Deaths in Scottish hospitals for all causes are way down compared with before the crisis. Huge increase in both COVID and non COVID deaths in care homes and a big increase non COVID deaths at home.

We know that the NHS threw thousands of elderly and sick people out of hospitals in March and April to make way for the surge in covid patients and we know that the media and government push to ‘protect the NHS’ will have deterred many folk from seeking help.

And it’s obvious that, after a very mild flu season, most of the people who died were very ill and literally had a life expectancy of a matter of days or weeks. 
 

More questions will get asked as more people analyse the data.

It’s looking to me that the vast bulk of deaths were caused by the policies the governments and the NHS pursued and the panic their media messaging created.

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The fact that @bazil85 things that the lockdown policy of throwing 25,000 sick and elderly people out of hospital didn’t contribute to the huge death toll is worrying.

The fact that he doesn’t think all the missed cancer appointments and huge waiting list won’t have an impact is bizarre.

The fact that he doesn’t think that the coming economic depression will affect the health of the nation is lunacy. 

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13 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:
3 hours ago, faraway saint said:
Not quite the drama [mention=6848]Ayrshire Saints[/mention] was trying to make out as the majority were in a red cross centre, now closed. 

That's one of the 9 separate outbreaks, now on Sky news too.

Aye? 

You can't just turn on/off these things like a tap. There would need to be a prolonged and real "spike" to see any reverse in the current travel plans. 

Oh, all the above is my opinion, not Googled. 

Edited by faraway saint
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6 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:
3 hours ago, faraway saint said:
Not quite the drama [mention=6848]Ayrshire Saints[/mention] was trying to make out as the majority were in a red cross centre, now closed. 

That's one of the 9 separate outbreaks, now on Sky news too.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/travel/new-coronavirus-outbreaks-in-malaga-and-the-costa-del-sol/30/06/

 

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Just now, faraway saint said:

Aye? 

You can't just turn on/off these things like a tap. There would need to be a prolonged and real "spike" to see any reverse in the current travel plans. 

They actually have these?

What I've seen is a lot of hot air and uncertainty as to what is actually going to happen.

Certainly not what I would call a plan, with any substance.

 

 

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1 minute ago, FTOF said:

They actually have these?

What I've seen is a lot of hot air and uncertainty as to what is actually going to happen.

Certainly not what I would call a plan, with any substance.

 

 

The plan is, and keep this to yourself, to open up some air corridors, whatever they are, between countries who are quite comfortable to allow disease ridden holidaymakers come and enjoy themselves. 🤪

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4 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

The plan is, and keep this to yourself, to open up some air corridors, whatever they are, between countries who are quite comfortable to allow disease ridden holidaymakers come and enjoy themselves. 🤪

But will they?

I was having a look at the Rome webcams and it is almost devoid of people. 

It looks as if a lot of the bars/restaurants that were open before all of this, have re-opened to any extent.

As much as I am pissed off I'm not going to Rome, I seriously doubt that I would have enjoyed going in the next couple of months, due to the probable numerous types of restrictions in place.

I suppose if you can get a cheap flight and accommodation and not give a shit about any of the possible consequences of going on a foreign holiday, then just getting away, might be enjoyable.

However, spending £3-4K going to Rome under the current circumstances wouldn't seem worth it.

Edited by FTOF
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Latest NRS stats not published until tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if mortality in Scotland is now back to normal levels for this time of year like it is in England....

If mortality is back to normal and the disease is seasonal (which it unquestionably is), why are we in lockdown?

We were told at the start that it was all about flattening the curve, saving the NHS and stopping deaths that might have occurred had the NHS been overwhelmed.

Looking at the latest NRS data, there has been an 8% reduction in the number of hospital deaths in Scotland  in the last 12 weeks compared with the previous 12 weeks. That’s 504 less deaths. It appears that we flattened the curve so much that it turned inverse.

Meanwhile, there have been an extra 1,214 deaths at home over the past 12 weeks where COVID wasn’t on the death certificate. According to @bazil85 the lockdown didn’t cause this.....

And after emptying the hospitals of the sick and elderly, 1,851 people have died in Scottish care homes with COVID in the death certificate.

Strangely, care home deaths of cancer have miraculously fallen well below the 5 year average. 207 fewer care home residents have died of cancer over the past 12 weeks compared with the first 12 weeks of the year. Amazing.

This is a national scandal and those responsible need to be held accountable. Once the dust begins to settle and the data becomes clearer then there must be questions to answer.

 

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3 hours ago, bazil85 said:

While the numbers in Scotland have been encouraging you surely have to remember the difference in population, density etc? 

The numbers in England have been dropping, despite what some people prefer to talk about, dramatically over the last month.

There's also the continued issues with the economy.

 

"While we're on Sweden, and I'm not defending their decision, have around twice the population of Scotland with, approx, 20% more fatalities.

If they are having a nightmare, with no lockdown and the economy in a better state than most, then what does that suggest about Scotland?"

Double standards?

That was an earlier quote from you completely ignoring the population density in Sweden in a summary comparison to Scotland. Why do you feel it's one rule comparing England and Scotland but a different comparing Scotland and Sweden?

My guess.. It suits him. 

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1 hour ago, FTOF said:

But will they?

I was having a look at the Rome webcams and it is almost devoid of people. 

It looks as if a lot of the bars/restaurants that were open before all of this, have re-opened to any extent.

As much as I am pissed off I'm not going to Rome, I seriously doubt that I would have enjoyed going in the next couple of months, due to the probable numerous types of restrictions in place.

I suppose if you can get a cheap flight and accommodation and not give a shit about any of the possible consequences of going on a foreign holiday, then just getting away, might be enjoyable.

However, spending £3-4K going to Rome under the current circumstances wouldn't seem worth it.

Aye, I agree things in many resorts are not, on the surface, as they were and will take some time to get close to what they were.

That's the main reason we're waiting till December and will monitor things before we book. 👍

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3 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

Quite the opposite in fact.

And looking at the third world, it’ll kill millions. 

But factually you must agree right now the evidence does not point to lockdown killing more people in UK than the virus, agreed?

Time will tell, I think it's again very likely this will be yet another wrong prediction from you. 

3 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

The fact that @bazil85 things that the lockdown policy of throwing 25,000 sick and elderly people out of hospital didn’t contribute to the huge death toll is worrying.

The fact that he doesn’t think all the missed cancer appointments and huge waiting list won’t have an impact is bizarre.

The fact that he doesn’t think that the coming economic depression will affect the health of the nation is lunacy. 

Back to your contradiction, you've been campaigning for no lockdown at all, so where would you have put these people exactly? At the worst point the hospitals looked like they could get overrun, given it's fact this virus spreads by contact & looking at stats in other countries that didn't lockdown, it is completely accurate to say more people would have gotten sick and it would have stressed hospitals. So again, where would you put these people? On the street? 

The evidence isn't pointing to lockdown increasing the death toll, you've been proven wrong. Accept it. 

We have the capability to mitigate against increased health issues in an economic depression, if the people in charge of the country choose not to, that's on them not lockdown. 

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Latest NRS stats not published until tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if mortality in Scotland is now back to normal levels for this time of year like it is in England....

If mortality is back to normal and the disease is seasonal (which it unquestionably is), why are we in lockdown?

We were told at the start that it was all about flattening the curve, saving the NHS and stopping deaths that might have occurred had the NHS been overwhelmed.

Looking at the latest NRS data, there has been an 8% reduction in the number of hospital deaths in Scotland  in the last 12 weeks compared with the previous 12 weeks. That’s 504 less deaths. It appears that we flattened the curve so much that it turned inverse.

Meanwhile, there have been an extra 1,214 deaths at home over the past 12 weeks where COVID wasn’t on the death certificate. According to @bazil85 the lockdown didn’t cause this.....

And after emptying the hospitals of the sick and elderly, 1,851 people have died in Scottish care homes with COVID in the death certificate.

Strangely, care home deaths of cancer have miraculously fallen well below the 5 year average. 207 fewer care home residents have died of cancer over the past 12 weeks compared with the first 12 weeks of the year. Amazing.

This is a national scandal and those responsible need to be held accountable. Once the dust begins to settle and the data becomes clearer then there must be questions to answer.

 

500,000 dead worldwide, likely far more not recorded. Multiple countries in multiple different seasons have been impacted. Lockdown was the right call, your support for this over the months has slowly evaporated. Again you've been proven wrong, be a better person and accept it as  many others have across the world. 

Look at the graph on excessive deaths, the vast majority have been Covid related. No one is saying that no one else would die of any other avoidable cause. There wasn't a 100% effective solution, common sense should tell you that. 

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1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

U.K. and Peru went into lockdown (Peru before the U.K.). Sweden and Brazil didn’t go into lockdown. The graph below shows that lockdowns made no difference, the virus has followed seasonality.

This document explains how a seasonal virus operates

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2279112/

 

8CCF2B0B-6AF5-48FD-B0C7-F93240B15140.jpeg

You have got to be kidding, are you genuinely incapable of reading that graph?

The curve in the UK wouldn't have miraculously fallen without a lockdown, there is overwhelming evidence of this in countries with as populated areas as the UK (like USA for example) 

All that graph shows is countries that haven't lockdown, often with lower population density than the UK, have death rates higher than us. It shows not locking down was wrong. Sweden not locking down and the number of people they have let die to try protect their economy is a scandal, heads should roll after this. as for Peru, I wonder how many countries you ignored first as a comparison because they didn't fit your agenda lol. 

It is genuinely staggering you can share something like that and not see how it blows your view apart. 

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Deaths in Scotland by place of occurrence, weeks 12-25 taken from the NRS. 
 

Easily checkable @oaksoft just because you don’t understand doesn’t mean it fake. It just means that you are stupid. 
 

Leaving aside the many deaths, especially in hospitals that would have happened anyway, eg someone dies of cancer and is found to also have a positive Covid test, what do the numbers show?

Amongst other things

* People contracted Covid after entering hospital for something else

* Covid was seeded into care home by emptying hospitals of the sick and elderly

* people in care homes were denied hospital treatment or didn’t seek help

* people at home were denied NHS treatment and / or didn’t seek help

This all happened as a result of lockdown policies. This all happened as a result of the policy to ‘protect the NHS’. Surely the NHS is there to protect us and not the other way round?

The inescapable conclusion is that much of the death toll is the fault of NHS management and the Scottish government.

It was all foreseeable and predictable. Even I predicted it before it happened.

Those responsible must be held accountable.

Those who supported it should forever have it on their conscious. 

E2C6B825-310B-4AE8-A6A6-E8712F98BE57.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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1 hour ago, bazil85 said:

You have got to be kidding, are you genuinely incapable of reading that graph?

The curve in the UK wouldn't have miraculously fallen without a lockdown, there is overwhelming evidence of this in countries with as populated areas as the UK (like USA for example) 

All that graph shows is countries that haven't lockdown, often with lower population density than the UK, have death rates higher than us. It shows not locking down was wrong. Sweden not locking down and the number of people they have let die to try protect their economy is a scandal, heads should roll after this. as for Peru, I wonder how many countries you ignored first as a comparison because they didn't fit your agenda lol. 

It is genuinely staggering you can share something like that and not see how it blows your view apart. 

SD... Get it? 

And the Arbroath Man's head is hurting. Maybe a sign of life.. A passing thought even 

Edited by St.Ricky
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2 hours ago, bazil85 said:

You have got to be kidding, are you genuinely incapable of reading that graph?

The curve in the UK wouldn't have miraculously fallen without a lockdown, there is overwhelming evidence of this in countries with as populated areas as the UK (like USA for example) 

BAZIL...  There is a school of thought (Virologists)who believe that the warmer weather is what helps stop pandemics  and virus spreads.  The month of May in the UK was the warmest and dryest EVER.  THAT likely had an impact

It is genuinely staggering you can share something like that and not see how it blows your view apart. 

Also... BAZIL... as you quite above - "Time will tell."

I think any attempt to call this particular pandemic  and its rate/growth/direction of travel is... far too early.  Hindsight will be the sole sure way of saying something sensible.

Word.

 

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