bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sue Denim said: It was the lockdown that did in fact increase the transmission - into care homes. Thus story is not isolated. In my opinion this story accounts for the majority of care home deaths during this crisis. We quarantined those unlikely to be affected by the virus and spread amongst those who would. And to compound it, we threw them out of hospitals, denied them NHS treatment and abandoned them to die. Deep down you know that’s what happened. This is a man made disaster. Shame on you for supporting it and shame on those continuing to allow it to happen. All fit the sake of a virtue signalling agenda. Disagree, if there was no lockdown these people would still had to go somewhere. Care homes where the virus ran wild or hospitals that would factually have had far more people with covid19 in them, given we know with certainty more contact = more transmission. It is practically guaranteed the NHS wouldn't have been able to cope without a lockdown. The virus still had to get to these people and transmit through communities, you were wishing for more people to have more freedoms to pass this virus about. In a world where more people have the virus to transmit given a lack of restrictions, how do we care for these people? How do we stop care staff, doctors and nurses getting the virus in larger numbers? Your approach defies logic, it's been very easily shown. Shame on you for wishing more people got this killer virus just so you could enjoy your summer more. Shocking world view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 Just now, Sue Denim said: Yes, I’ve made that point many times and that was the point in my reply! My view is that we don’t know what causes the seasonality effect. How does that make your point and show that my point is ignorant? So we don't know enough about this virus, what we do know relates to it's transmission in the climate we have in the UK and that it kills people. Thank you for showing I was right all along and lockdown was the correct call while we find out more about Covid19. Glad we got there in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, bazil85 said: Point one and point two contradict each other and further validate my view. No they don’t Quote There are a magnitude of factors, many of which are not knowing at this time that has collectively attributed to this awful pandemic. Indeed. Has been my point all along. Quote You don't know the full picture regarding this before the collective scientific community, thinking you do tilts between ignorance and arrogance. The collective scientific community isn’t in agreement on anything. I’m making up my own mind from all the science I’ve read. And your point here contradicts your point in the previous paragraph. Quote I have tried to show you that by giving you points in isolation that contradict your worldview. Yet again, I am not saying they are the only factors to use, I am pointing out the lack of sense in your tactics. I can say the same right back at you. It is only the "main point" to you because in isolation it backs your view, it will never stop being the case that we have to look and understand far more data. I never said it was the main point. I replied to a post pointing out how hospital admissions went down after lockdown. I believe that other factors played a part in that with seasonality being a major one. Again playing your game Deaths in Brazil - 91,000 Deaths in Argentina - 3.400 Deaths in Sweden - 5,700 Deaths in Denmark, Finland and Norway combined - 1,197 Wow look at that, some stats in isolation destroy your point... The fact that the stats are in isolation are what make them irrelevant. Glad you’ve come round to my way of thinking 👍 Edited July 31, 2020 by Sue Denim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 @bazil85 Again playing your game Deaths in Brazil - 91,000 Deaths in Argentina - 3.400 Deaths in Sweden - 5,700 Deaths in Denmark, Finland and Norway combined - 1,197 Wow look at that, some stats in isolation destroy your point... The fact that the stats are in isolation are what make them irrelevant. Glad you’ve come round to my way of thinking 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, bazil85 said: So we don't know enough about this virus, what we do know relates to it's transmission in the climate we have in the UK and that it kills people. Thank you for showing I was right all along and lockdown was the correct call while we find out more about Covid19. Glad we got there in the end. The fact that we locked down as we came out of winter and after the virus was widespread highlights that lockdown was the wrong decision. The fact that lockdown has made no difference to the spread of the virus in the south shows that lockdown was the wrong decision. The fact that the virus followed the same trajectory in Sweden despite no lockdown shows lockdown was the wrong decision. And throwing sick and elderly people out of hospital, seeding Covid into care homes, denying people access to the NHS, abandons people to die and wrecking the economy was certainly the wrong decision. No one knows exactly the mechanism of transmission nor the trigger for seasonality. No-one knows why it’s hit some countries worse than others (Asian Pacific rim got off lightly). If as you say, we don’t know enough about the virus, how can you possibly know if the interventions taken were cotrect? 🤷🏻♂️ As usual, you’ve contradicted yourself left right and centre Edited July 31, 2020 by Sue Denim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Sue Denim said: No they don’t Indeed. Has been my point all along. The collective scientific community isn’t in agreement on anything. I’m making up my own mind from all the science I’ve read. And your point here contradicts your point in the previous paragraph. Again more contradiction but it looks like we agree that you are absolutely not informed enough to make these absolute claims regarding lockdown. For me the fact the science wasn't fully there and we had to curb the spread of the virus, lockdown was correct. Life over economy is in part my world view. 3 minutes ago, Sue Denim said: @bazil85 The fact that the stats are in isolation are what make them irrelevant. Glad you’ve come round to my way of thinking 👍 Correct, that was always my view, you are only now beginning to understand it despite how clear I've made it. Glad you now agree all the stats you've shared regarding Sweden, Peru, etc are in isolation, "irrelevant" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Sue Denim said: The fact that we locked down as we came out of winter and after the virus was widespread highlights that lockdown was the wrong decision. The fact that lockdown has made no difference to the spread of the virus in the south shows that lockdown was the wrong decision. And throwing sick and elderly people out of hospital, seeding Covid into care homes, denying people access to the NHS, abandons people to die and wrecking the economy was certainly the wrong decision. No one knows exactly the mechanism of transmission nor the trigger for seasonality. No-one knows why it’s hit some countries worse than others (Asian Pacific rim got off lightly). If as you say, we don’t know enough about the virus, how can you possibly know if the interventions taken were cotrect? 🤷🏻♂️ As usual, you’ve contradicted yourself left right and centre It really doesn't, again we can look at transmission in other countries with varying climates to show the virus can run wild in multiple climates. Assertion - You've admitted you don't have the data to make such a claim Already addressed, your world view there would have been nowhere safe for these people to go as we factually know more contact = more transmission. You again make a certainty claim after admitting you don't have the data to make such a claim - contradiction So again, why are you making so many claims regarding you being certainly right on lockdown? Again a contradiction. Yet you make a claim that you are definitely right? For me the very fact we didn't know enough meant lockdown was the right call. If you don't know your enemy fully, you take precautions on what you do know (in this instance contact = more transmission). I believe we have enough evidence to fully justify the lockdown, there is data we don't yet have but I see it as extremely unlikely any new data will contradict that. You've literally contradicted yourself sentence on sentence with this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, bazil85 said: Again more contradiction but it looks like we agree that you are absolutely not informed enough to make these absolute claims regarding lockdown. For me the fact the science wasn't fully there and we had to curb the spread of the virus, lockdown was correct. Life over economy is in part my world view. There you go again, contradicting yourself. You agree that the science wasn’t fully there and then make an absolute claim about lockdown. Quote Glad you now agree all the stats you've shared regarding Sweden, Peru, etc are in isolation, "irrelevant" On the contrary, I think the myriad of stats showing the big picture are highly relevant On the contrary, I think the myriad of stats showing the big picture are highly relevant Edited July 31, 2020 by Sue Denim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 hour ago, bazil85 said: Venezuela locked down roughly the same time as Peru and has only had 158 deaths. So I must ask, why do you disregard telling us about Venezuela but often bring up Peru? Is it cherry picking possibly? Only 158 deaths? Only? You heartless bastard. Don't you realise every death is a personal tregedy? Sheesh. You virtue signallers can't be consistent at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beyond our ken Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 17 hours ago, TPAFKATS said: Indeed. I've never heard of it being an issue for cycling, but I've absolutely no cause to doubt anything Andy states on this forum. It's not as if he's a proven liar... it would suit me better to say that he conflated 2 unrelated issues in order to try and score a petty point or two rather than to condemn him as an outright liar. However it also suits me to believe, applying the filters that years of reading Andy's posts have developed, that he he will have see the inside of a coffin before he ever sees the inside of a gym. He should use the money he has saved on his imaginary gym payments to buy some imaginary weights & skipping rope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, bazil85 said: It really doesn't, again we can look at transmission in other countries with varying climates to show the virus can run wild in multiple climates. Indeed, yet still there is a seasonality effect. I totally agree with you that the effect is not down to temperature or climate. Nobody knows for sure what causes the seasonality effect. This has always been my point! And if we don’t know then how do we know how to counteract it? What we do know for sure is that pandemics like this are explosive, hit a peak very quick and then disappear. And the explosive peak is generally linked to seasonality. Flu peaks every single winter, this is a fact. But no-one can answer the various unanswered questions about viruses such as this. The measures we did take made the situation worse IMO This article gives as good a theory as anything I’ve read - but as they point out - it’s only a hypothesis. But if it’s true then every single action we took at the time we did was wrong. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870528/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, beyond our ken said: it would suit me better to say that he conflated 2 unrelated issues in order to try and score a petty point or two rather than to condemn him as an outright liar. However it also suits me to believe, applying the filters that years of reading Andy's posts have developed, that he he will have see the inside of a coffin before he ever sees the inside of a gym. He should use the money he has saved on his imaginary gym payments to buy some imaginary weights & skipping rope. People who know me - and a few on this forum know me in real life - know that I’m a bit of a fitness fanatic albeit injury and lockdown have curtailed me a bit recently. They will no doubt also agree that I’m a looney. At least I’m aware of the fact. 😜 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Only 158 deaths? Only? You heartless bastard. Don't you realise every death is a personal tregedy? Sheesh. You virtue signallers can't be consistent at all. Only 55 deaths in Belarus and only 1,004 deaths in Japan and neither country locked down. I’m accused by @bazil85 of “cherry picking” stats but never mention Belarus and never compare Japan to Europe. Thats because I look at the bigger picture..... Edited July 31, 2020 by Sue Denim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 27 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Only 158 deaths? Only? You heartless bastard. Don't you realise every death is a personal tregedy? Sheesh. You virtue signallers can't be consistent at all. Sheesh you tactics know no bounds do they? You've highlighted a view that human life is expendable in a Scotland where "all" restrictions have been lifted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 32 minutes ago, Sue Denim said: There you go again, contradicting yourself. You agree that the science wasn’t fully there and then make an absolute claim about lockdown. On the contrary, I think the myriad of stats showing the big picture are highly relevant A view from the unknown, that's the difference. At one point we didn't know how people would cope with space travel, we didn't just fire them up there without testing and precaution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 22 minutes ago, Sue Denim said: Indeed, yet still there is a seasonality effect. I totally agree with you that the effect is not down to temperature or climate. Nobody knows for sure what causes the seasonality effect. This has always been my point! And if we don’t know then how do we know how to counteract it? What we do know for sure is that pandemics like this are explosive, hit a peak very quick and then disappear. And the explosive peak is generally linked to seasonality. Flu peaks every single winter, this is a fact. But no-one can answer the various unanswered questions about viruses such as this. The measures we did take made the situation worse IMO This article gives as good a theory as anything I’ve read - but as they point out - it’s only a hypothesis. But if it’s true then every single action we took at the time we did was wrong. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870528/ So how on earth can you have made a conclusion in March with all these unknowns that lockdown definitely wouldn't be the right call and claim it has saved no lives? Again you contradict yourself. Again we play to what we do know about a contagious virus. less contact = less transmission, that is a known and justified a lockdown. the decision was guided by known while we investigate the unknown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, Sue Denim said: Only 55 deaths in Belarus and only 1,004 deaths in Japan and neither country locked down. I’m accused by @bazil85 of “cherry picking” stats but never mention Belarus and never compare Japan to Europe. Thats because I look at the bigger picture..... If you believe that, see the point I was making regarding Venezuela & recording. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuddieinEK Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 Never mind Coronovirus...Can we do a forum headcount please...I want to know how many we have lost and how many have lost the will to live from this one thread alone? [emoji850] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, bazil85 said: If you believe that, see the point I was making regarding Venezuela & recording. I don’t believe it - that is my point. And yes, I see the point you were making about Venezuela- I replied to your point! And, yes, differences in recording makes comparison Covid death counts impossible - even within the U.K. Hence why I look at the bigger picture - excess and absolute mortality. Glad to see you’re getting there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 (edited) 50 minutes ago, bazil85 said: So how on earth can you have made a conclusion in March with all these unknowns that lockdown definitely wouldn't be the right call and claim it has saved no lives? Again you contradict yourself. Because were coming out of winter.... how many times do I need to say this? And for a variety of other reasons. We already knew from real life data from Italy that the average person dying was beyond life expectancy and had 2 or 3 co morbidities. We knee from Italy that people in care homes were vulnerable. We knew that it wasn’t really affecting people under 60. Certainly, less so than flu. we should have been protecting the vulnerable instead of abandoning them - not protecting the healthy. We knew the fatality rate wasn’t as large as first feared. We knew that Neil Ferguson had a history of completely exaggerated forecasts. We knew that there would be enormous collateral damage in terms of lives lost and to the economy. And we also knew that, without knowing the actual transmission of the virus that any intervention was guesswork. Governments panicked. They needed to be seen to be doing something. The Tory part has only one main aim - to stay in power. A Tory government will only ever do what it takes to stay in power. The media ramped U.K. the fear, the public were scared and the government had to be seen to be doing something. Quote Again we play to what we do know about a contagious virus. less contact = less transmission, that is a known and justified a lockdown. But if most of the transmission in the community had already taken place by the time of lockdown then forcing people to have more and prolonged contact with people in their own homes was obviously the wrong decision. If the virus was already widespread in the community and hospitals then forcing elderly people out of hospital and into care homes was obviously the wrong decision. If, for example, solar radiation is the seasonality effect, then forcing people to stay indoors just as the good weather arrived was obviously the wrong choice. And if lockdown had made no difference to the trajectory of the virus in South America and the southern US states and South Africa then we know it didn’t work. And we know from the experience of Sweden that it didn’t make any difference. We were told they lockdown was only to “flatten the curve” based on a predicted 500k deaths in the U.K., We know that would never have happened and there the curve did t need flattening. All we succeeded in doing was enlarging the sombrero! Edited July 31, 2020 by Sue Denim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 @bazil85 It’s not like this is a novel concept..... Whoever wishes to investigate medicine properly should proceed thus: in the first place to consider the seasons of the year … Hippocrates (circa 400 b.c.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sue Denim Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 (edited) @bazil85 If lockdown, isolation, test and trace, etc, works then how do you explain this? https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-argentina-fishermen-trawler-ushuaia-covid19-echizen-maru-a9621716.html%3famp A line from the article says: “iven the length of time before symptoms were reported onboard, the hospital’s head of infectious diseases, Leandro Ballatore, told AFP he believed this is a “case that escapes all description in publications, because an incubation period this long has not been described anywhere”. Edgar Hope Simpson’s theory can explain it and he came up with it decades ago Who knows if it’s true. He recommended more research. But the point is that no-one really knows and if his theory is correct then it explains why lockdown happening when it did was useless https://www.dropbox.com/s/edn3jjd0a82otsy/11th The Transmission of Influenza BOOK.pdf?dl=0 Edited July 31, 2020 by Sue Denim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Sue Denim said: I don’t believe it - that is my point. And yes, I see the point you were making about Venezuela- I replied to your point! And, yes, differences in recording makes comparison Covid death counts impossible - even within the U.K. Hence why I look at the bigger picture - excess and absolute mortality. Glad to see you’re getting there! Which by its very nature dilutes the figures. It doesn't take into consideration other event linked deaths. I have been completely consistent and tried to explain my view to you dozens of times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Sue Denim said: Because were coming out of winter.... how many times do I need to say this? And for a variety of other reasons. We already knew from real life data from Italy that the average person dying was beyond life expectancy and had 2 or 3 co morbidities. We knee from Italy that people in care homes were vulnerable. We knew that it wasn’t really affecting people under 60. Certainly, less so than flu. we should have been protecting the vulnerable instead of abandoning them - not protecting the healthy. We knew the fatality rate wasn’t as large as first feared. We knew that Neil Ferguson had a history of completely exaggerated forecasts. We knew that there would be enormous collateral damage in terms of lives lost and to the economy. And we also knew that, without knowing the actual transmission of the virus that any intervention was guesswork. Governments panicked. They needed to be seen to be doing something. The Tory part has only one main aim - to stay in power. A Tory government will only ever do what it takes to stay in power. The media ramped U.K. the fear, the public were scared and the government had to be seen to be doing something. But if most of the transmission in the community had already taken place by the time of lockdown then forcing people to have more and prolonged contact with people in their own homes was obviously the wrong decision. If the virus was already widespread in the community and hospitals then forcing elderly people out of hospital and into care homes was obviously the wrong decision. If, for example, solar radiation is the seasonality effect, then forcing people to stay indoors just as the good weather arrived was obviously the wrong choice. And if lockdown had made no difference to the trajectory of the virus in South America and the southern US states and South Africa then we know it didn’t work. And we know from the experience of Sweden that it didn’t make any difference. We were told they lockdown was only to “flatten the curve” based on a predicted 500k deaths in the U.K., We know that would never have happened and there the curve did t need flattening. All we succeeded in doing was enlarging the sombrero! You can say it as many times as you want, globally it has been shown that seasonal weather ISN'T an exclusive factor in Covid19. It is not the case that we don't prevent deaths over summer months by having a lockdown. You aren't more equipped to have made this call than the expert scientists guiding the worlds nations. You didn't know in March that locking down into the summer was a bad idea and in fact, evidence shows it has saved lives to date from a killer virus. I have disregarded anything you've said that devalues human life. Hastening people to their death to protect economy isn't my worldview and I reject it as an approach. You can have your expendable old people's lives views, I disagree with it. You also still completely ignore how difficult it would be to "protect the vulnerable" in a world where far more people including nurses, care staff and relatives have coronavirus to pass on. Fatality rate was large enough IMO (far too even) Forecasts are forecasts, I would always go cautious when it comes to human life, that's where we differ. You wanted to run all the unknown risks on a gamble so you could have enjoyed your summer more. Note your hypocrisy though, you look at future state worst case scenario on other deaths and near ALWAYS change "could" to "will" agreed? We sure did, we're in the midst of a massive tragedy. Fortunately given transmission levels, we didn't listen to people like you that would have resulted in far more people sick and as such far more death. But hey, old people are expendable aren't they? If it's guess work then you must have been guessing a lockdown was the wrong approach in March. Again for me, cautious always wins when it comes to human life. Many people have had the virus since lockdown, logically if we hadn't locked down the spread would have been far faster and far bigger given what we know about contact and infection. Your view again is highlighted as making no sense. No lockdown would have ramped up the deaths and the sick far faster. If it was widespread, but again people getting it months after lockdown proves that either 1. you can get it more than once or 2. It wasn't as wide spread as you think. Less contact = less transmission, that's a fact whether you like it or not. Evidence points to lockdown having an impact in South America like anywhere else. Brazil didn't lockdown - far bigger impact than any other south american country by many parameters. (back to your cherry picking, I am only stating points in isolation to show how ignorant it is AGAIN) Again by some parameters in Sweden it did make a difference. We have agreed you are wrong to use Sweden as an example given the multiple unknowns & reporting issues. This is where we differ, I can look at points in isolation and tell you what I'm doing, you admit your points aren't based on enough evidence yet you still make absolute claims, like Sweden shows lockdown "didn't make a difference" No we don't know that would "never have happened" almost 50k people have died in the UK linked to covid19, that figure ain't stopped. If without a lockdown, the people on people exposure was much greater than that figure could easily have been much higher. I know for a fact I interacted with far fewer people during lockdown than I usually would. The difference was easily thousands. You again make assumptions based on something you've admitted you don't know. 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bazil85 Posted July 31, 2020 Report Share Posted July 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Sue Denim said: @bazil85 It’s not like this is a novel concept..... Whoever wishes to investigate medicine properly should proceed thus: in the first place to consider the seasons of the year … Hippocrates (circa 400 b.c.) You still not understanding it isn't something we'd look at in isolation is irrelevant. If you don't have the capacity to understand other factors and that Covid19 has taken hold in multiple different climates, fine. 1 hour ago, Sue Denim said: @bazil85 If lockdown, isolation, test and trace, etc, works then how do you explain this? https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-argentina-fishermen-trawler-ushuaia-covid19-echizen-maru-a9621716.html%3famp A line from the article says: “iven the length of time before symptoms were reported onboard, the hospital’s head of infectious diseases, Leandro Ballatore, told AFP he believed this is a “case that escapes all description in publications, because an incubation period this long has not been described anywhere”. Edgar Hope Simpson’s theory can explain it and he came up with it decades ago Who knows if it’s true. He recommended more research. But the point is that no-one really knows and if his theory is correct then it explains why lockdown happening when it did was useless https://www.dropbox.com/s/edn3jjd0a82otsy/11th The Transmission of Influenza BOOK.pdf?dl=0 I don't think I've ever made comment on test and trace, my understanding is there are a number of concerns. Like with anything in this world, there will always be mystery and unknowns. I don't know how he got it but I'm not concerned about isolated stories. If it was a case that thousands of people isolating were getting the virus it would be alarm bells but we know self isolating in the vast majority of instances stops transmission and stops you getting the virus during that time, agreed? "not being described anywhere" thanks for sharing the quote that shows just how isolated this event has been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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