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faraway saint

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Andy, FYI, Venezuela also borders Brazil so your reason that you chose Peru because it borders Brazil seems a bit silly. As an aside, Chile and Ecuador are the only South American countries that don't border Brazil.

For the main protagonists, you know who you are, there is no conclusive evidence either way whether or not lockdown was the right call, so stop trying to pretend that "the data" shows you to be right. There is no control group to compare events to so it will be after the fact that events will be evaluated and a consensus reached on right/wrong actions and, even then, it won't be a definitive answer. All that anyone can do just now is use a best guess with the information at hand.

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14 minutes ago, Slarti said:

Andy, FYI, Venezuela also borders Brazil so your reason that you chose Peru because it borders Brazil seems a bit silly. As an aside, Chile and Ecuador are the only South American countries that don't border Brazil.

I don’t think the stats coming out of Venezuela are that reliable. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/venezuela-coronavirus-death-toll-human-rights-watch

For the same reason, I leave Belarus, which didn’t lockdown out of the discussion too.

Peru locked down before the U.K. and has a similar death rate to Brazil.

This therefore allows a decent graph in proportion between Sweden, U.K., Peru and Brazil to ask the question as to whether lockdown or seasonality shaped the graph. 

 

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33 minutes ago, smcc said:

Interesting. I thought 'flu was a seasonal(winter) disease

.

It peaks in the winter but still at a low level in the summer. That’s what makes it seasonal.
 

When that article talks about 3 times as many flu deaths as Covid, you need to remember that there are now very few Covid deaths in the U.K. (ignore the discredited PHE figures). 
 

Around 8-9k thousand people die a week in the summer with deaths hitting around 14k a week at the peak in Dec / Jan. Flu is thought to be the main driver of those excess deaths. 
 

Why aren’t we testing for flu now? It’s killing more people than Covid just now and will kill more this winter.

If it’s really about saving lives then why aren’t we switching our attention to flu?

Edited by Sue Denim
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3 hours ago, bazil85 said:

You still not understanding it isn't something we'd look at in isolation is irrelevant. If you don't have the capacity to understand other factors and that Covid19 has taken hold in multiple different climates, fine. 

 

Yes, I know it’s taken hold in multiple different climates,....but always in the winter!

Seasonality and the mechanisms of transmission are unknown and no doubt highly complex. 

And of course there are other factors. Why hasn’t it taken hold in the Pacific rim for example?

I’m the one looking at the big picture. You’re the one who has closed his mind to all else but lockdown, lockdown, lockdown.

If the mechanism of  transmission is not truly known then how can you possibly know how to stop it?

I think it’s unlikely but what if the main mechanism of transmission is the fecal / oral route like some other viruses?

How would mask wearing and social distancing help then?

There are a multitude of unknown factors and you’ve closed your mind to them all.

Its plainly obvious that lockdown has caused thousands of collateral deaths. It would need to have saved many more lives for there to have been any benefit. IMO, I doubt many if any lives were saved by it. It only increased the death toll IMO.

 

Edited by Sue Denim
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Nicola Sturgeon days today that there have been no new deaths for 16 days and the death toll stands at 2.491.

Yet the National Registrar for Scotland says there were 8 deaths with COVID on the death certificate in the period 20th July to 26th July and that there have been 4,201 deaths with COVID in the death certificate.

How does Sturgeon get away with these lies? 

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35 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Nicola Sturgeon days today that there have been no new deaths for 16 days and the death toll stands at 2.491.

Yet the National Registrar for Scotland says there were 8 deaths with COVID on the death certificate in the period 20th July to 26th July and that there have been 4,201 deaths with COVID in the death certificate.

How does Sturgeon get away with these lies? 

Because there's at least three sets of stats being used and you just pick the one that suits your argument best - sound familiar?

Like you said NS got her knuckles rapped by the UK stats watchdog for "abusing statistics" (oooh err missus!!!!!!) - I thought Jackson Carlaw showed her up yesterday and the SNP members were reduced to loud cheering to hide a weak argument. Unfortunately for JC it was his last performance and he "resigned" to make room for Douglas "The Linesman" Ross to take over with Ruth "Likes a Bung" Davidson in temporary charge. The Colenel's reward for helping out BJ is that she'll finally become a Lady! Some turnaround for The Colonel who seems to have made a complete U-turn around BJ - must've been that greasy pole dance that swung it! :spud2

Edited by Bud the Baker
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1 hour ago, theknickerwetter said:

                                                                  Sounds like the looney left . Were you a member of Militant back in the day ?

 

FM , yes l used to like FM but then DAB came along and opened up the horizons and presented better data put across in a better way , FM had become a bit tired and old hat and even a bit fuzzy around the edges.

With regard to the CCP , in retrospect we tend to look back on the Nazi treatment of Jews and say ' why didn't we do something about it ' , if only we knew? Move forward to today , the CCP treatment of the Uyghur Muslims, which is obvious genocide , remains largely the elephant in the room . A population of 11 million in the Xinjang region echoes the 8 million population of European Jews in the 30's . Satelite images of vast concentration camps , images of prisoners lined up in railway yards . Forced sterilisation of women , re-education for men , reports of mass organ harvesting then 30tonnes of human hair turns up on the American market . How can we tolerate this ?? Why are the Chinese building a power plant in England and still carrying on business as usual with this lot ? What are we afraid of or is it just like the 30's ? At least then nobody had seen genocide on an industrial scale , no excuse now . Donald J. Trump is today the only world leader telling it like it is  about this monstrous , vile regime . Unless we all condemn this regime and it's atrocities then shame on us . Unlike our father's generation we can't say ' but we had no idea' .

Have you failed to notice the rise of the US stock markets despite the 4 months of house arrest( house arrest that did not take place in the two major Marxists cities of Shanghai and Bejjing)  and tales of impending melt down ? Have you failed to notice that gold is now at it's highest value for 5000yrs , that everytime the value of silver rises by $1 it costs the bankers around $1billion , have you failed to notice that Wall St has now started making up new words to describe an economy they can no longer manipulate ?? Did Donald J. Trump the President of the Republic of the  United States of America tell Boris to drop Huawei ? Who knows but l hope he did . You do know that the CCP signed that trade deal with Potus because the tariffs imposed on them by Potus was crippling their economy , right?  If only we knew who let that disease fall out of the Wuhan lab, eh...............

 
 
 

1. Nope

2.Don't know what your trying to say.

3. I agree in general but have never made any comments supporting Chinese treatment of dissent from the politically Liberal, the LGBT community, Trade Unionists, Hong Kongers, Tibetans & the Uighars. Trump is not the only world leader to criticise China over human rights and he's happy to do business with other disgraceful regimes around the world like Saudi Arabia - btw all Trumps rhetoric will have nothing to do with this being election year :rolleyes:. None of this is news to me but congratulations on achieving a Cminus!

4 The stock market and the real world are only tangentially linked, I think we all know that the Potus did pressure BJ into ditching Huawei but a smart operator (ie not BJ) would know that by 2027 Trump will history if not 2021 and prevaricated. The UK'll get the thin end of Trade Deals from the US & the EEU especially during the current pandemic the Govt. should be trying to delay Brexit but that would mean admitting they were wrong on the issue :rolleyes:. Class act finishing off your post with a baseless conspiracy theory :1eye, If I didn't already think you were deranged I would now! 😪

Edited by Bud the Baker
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6 hours ago, theknickerwetter said:

 Have you failed to notice the rise of the US stock markets despite the 4 months of house arrest

 

Conversely, have you failed to notice that the £ v $ is higher these days than for a year?

Trump is a fruitcake and all his bullshit has now been catered for/ignored in market assessments.

 

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@bazil85


https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090.pdf

Analysis from the University of Edinburgh that the decline in infections in England & Wales began days before lockdown.

The report concludes 

“What the results show is that, in the absence of strong assumptions, the currently most reliable data strongly suggest that the decline in infections in England and Wales began before lockdown.

The report goes on to say

“ a plausible estimate of
the life loss burden from an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic in the UK is about 2 weeks per person .
A plausible lower bound on the UK life loss from the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath is 7 weeks 
per person . The economic shock from lockdown is substantially larger than 2008. Similarly the implied willingness to pay to save a life year from COVID-19 appears to be an order of magnitude higher than the usual UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold used for other diseases. Delayed health interventions for serious conditions represent a further life loss burden.”

Graph below shows calculated infections with the red line highlighting start of lockdown.

 

53DE3AEF-7F3B-4ACB-B12A-2550F304375A.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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