Coronavirus

[antrin]

15 hours ago, oaksoft said:

We know nothing of the sort and can't possibly know whether it saved or cost lives.

We can guess that lockdown might well have worked, but that's all we can do. There's plenty of credible scientists out there for both sides of that argument.

We do know.

And there can be no CREDIBLE scientists on both sides.  

politicians arguing both sides maybe.

We know the Buffoon and his cronies were about a fortnight too late, whilst dallying with the “herd immunity strategy”.   Hence Uk had bigger mortality rate than other European countries that did act swiftly.

Even on this thread, that was accepted by most other than alt right nutters.

So politicians might wish to to say otherwise.

But not credible scientists.

 

I mean... if a scientist told me the earth was flat, I would find that literally incredible.

[Hendo]

Just watching the first ministers briefing.

She's saying there are signs that the extra restrictions in the West of Scotland are working.

This is at the same time the testing system is in chaos.

Surely, the government wouldn't restrict testing in those areas to reduce the number of positive tests in order to justify their strategy, would they?

[WeeBud]

16 minutes ago, Hendo said:

Just watching the first ministers briefing.

She's saying there are signs that the extra restrictions in the West of Scotland are working.

This is at the same time the testing system is in chaos.

Surely, the government wouldn't restrict testing in those areas to reduce the number of positive tests in order to justify their strategy, would they?

A wee bit confused by what you're saying here Hendo and I'm not questioning your thoughts as I generally think most of your posts and points are sane. Having previously suggested that the FM is over-cautious and things should open up more (if I read your previous points correctly), are you now suggesting that she is now restricting testing so that a lower number of cases are being reported or are you suggesting it's the UK Government that are doing it??

 

[Sue Denim]

Latest mortality stats now out from the ONS and NRS.

Deaths in England & Wales last week were 7,739. This was 1,443 BELOW the 5 year average. Or 16% below the average. It’s the lowest weekly number of deaths for 8 years.

Up in Scotland, there were 48 excess deaths or 5% above the average.

Overall in 2020, excess deaths in England have been 13% higher than in Scotland. Overall mortality is 17% higher in Scotland than in England this year.

Indeed Scotland tops the table for the worst mortality in Western Europe in 2020. Mortality in Scotland in 2920 is almost 40% higher than in Sweden.

Hang on, none of this can be right surely? After all, @TPAFKATS told us all that excess deaths in England this year were *almost* FIVE times higher than in Scotland. He trebled down on it because he read it in a nationalist website somewhere. Must be true then

Edited September 16, 2020 by Sue Denim

[oaksoft]

2 hours ago, antrin said:

We do know.

And there can be no CREDIBLE scientists on both sides.  

politicians arguing both sides maybe.

We know the Buffoon and his cronies were about a fortnight too late, whilst dallying with the “herd immunity strategy”.   Hence Uk had bigger mortality rate than other European countries that did act swiftly.

Even on this thread, that was accepted by most other than alt right nutters.

So politicians might wish to to say otherwise.

But not credible scientists.

 

I mean... if a scientist told me the earth was flat, I would find that literally incredible.

You're right. The Covid-19 situation is EXACTLY like the flat earth debate. 

By the way, you might want to talk to that Oxford professor who claims lockdown is damaging and without merit. When you've done with him I have a very long list of other eminent scientists from such backwaters as Princeton etc who also believe the science doesn't back lockdown.

[Sue Denim]

Latest excess deaths stats from the NRS.

I know that @Bud the Baker wants to shut down any discussion of the deaths and doesn’t want too many people to know about them.... but I happen to think the truth is important and that those who have caused it should face the consequences. And those who supported it should forever hang their heads in shame.

There were 78 non Covid excess deaths in the community in Scotland last week.

Since the pandemic started there have now been 3,884 non Covid excess deaths in Scotland in the community and care homes. This is 77% of all excess deaths in Scotland.

This would mean over 44,000 non Covid excess deaths in the community and care homes in England, Wales and Scotland in 2020.

 

[Sue Denim]

2 hours ago, antrin said:

We do know.

And there can be no CREDIBLE scientists on both sides.  

politicians arguing both sides maybe.

We know the Buffoon and his cronies were about a fortnight too late, whilst dallying with the “herd immunity strategy”.   Hence Uk had bigger mortality rate than other European countries that did act swiftly.

Even on this thread, that was accepted by most other than alt right nutters.

So politicians might wish to to say otherwise.

But not credible scientists.

Herd immunity isn’t a “strategy”. It’s a natural end to an epidemic. Herd immunity has already been reached.

Trying to stop it is flat earth, medieval nonsense.

The problem is that we threw 25,000 elderly and sick patients out of hospital and into care homes at the height of it and we shut down the NHS. That is what has caused the bulk of the deaths.

There are plenty of credible scientists out there who have argued against lockdown.

Two most prominent in the U.K.:

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine.
 

Sunetra Gupta professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford.

You’ll find their analysis easily. Only just yesterday, a paper by Heneghan forced Sturgeon to change the definition of Covid hospital admissions in Scotland. 

[Sue Denim]

2 hours ago, Hendo said:

Just watching the first ministers briefing.

She's saying there are signs that the extra restrictions in the West of Scotland are working.

This is at the same time the testing system is in chaos.

Surely, the government wouldn't restrict testing in those areas to reduce the number of positive tests in order to justify their strategy, would they?

It’s exactly the strategy I’ve been arguing for.

If you stop mass testing in the community of asymptomatic healthy people then you’ll stop finding a lot of false positive “cases”.

 

[Bud the Baker]

55 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Latest excess deaths stats from the NRS.

I know that @Bud the Baker wants to shut down any discussion of the deaths and doesn’t want too many people to know about them.... but I happen to think the truth is important and that those who have caused it should face the consequences. And those who supported it should forever hang their heads in shame.

There were 78 non Covid excess deaths in the community in Scotland last week.

Since the pandemic started there have now been 3,884 non Covid excess deaths in Scotland in the community and care homes. This is 77% of all excess deaths in Scotland.

This would mean over 44,000 non Covid excess deaths in the community and care homes in England, Wales and Scotland in 2020.

 

Nope, I'm quite happy to discuss events in a rational manner I'm just pointing out the obvious delight you take in the excess deaths,.

Your incessant apples and oranges comparisons with Sweden, a country which has retained a publicly funded health service and the capacity and willingness (there was no free for all there) to deal with the pandemic is pointless, without the belated lockdown in March we'd have been a lot worse off.

Here in the UK approaching 8 months after the first Cobra meeting where we acknowledged we were facing a crisis we still don't have a working Test&Trace system - it's our overall crap handling of the situation from a lack of preparation to the government handing out stonking contracts to it's, usually incompetent, cronies rather than the lockdown specifically that has caused our disgraceful excess death total but don't let that stop you from gloating. 

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[Sue Denim]

On 9/14/2020 at 10:40 AM, beyond our ken said:

3 or so weeks

its now known that care home cases are rising and the lesson from other countries is that an increase of cases will lead to more hospitalisation 

Which countries? 

[portmahomack saint]

18 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Which countries? 

Spain and France 

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

Nope, I'm quite happy to discuss events in a rational manner I'm just pointing out the obvious delight you take in the excess deaths,.

Your incessant apples and oranges comparisons with Sweden, a country which has retained a publicly funded health service and the capacity and willingness (there was no free for all there) to deal with the pandemic is pointless, without the belated lockdown in March we'd have been a lot worse off.

Here in the UK approaching 8 months after the first Cobra meeting where we acknowledged we were facing a crisis we still don't have a working Test&Trace system - it's our overall crap handling of the situation from a lack of preparation to the government handing out stonking contracts to it's, usually incompetent, cronies rather than the lockdown specifically that has caused our disgraceful excess death total but don't let that stop you from gloating. 

 

Stating I’m taking delight in excess deaths is simply your means to try and shut down the discussion. I won’t be shut down. And I take no delight. 
 

The UK also retains a publicly funded health system.

There is no evidence whatsoever that without the lockdown that we’d be worse off.

Sweden is is a valid comparison. It highlights that the pandemic came and went in a no lockdown country just like any similar respiratory virus in history. 
 

Mortality in Sweden this year is shown along with the rest of Western Europe. 
 

Track and trace is a complete waste of time. It’s only there so that government can pretend they are doing something. 

Lockdown has specifically caused 46,000 excess deaths in the U.K. as per ONS and NRS statistics out this week. You really don’t think that throwing 25,000 people out of hospital and shutting down half the NHS hasn’t caused the major part of the excess deaths? 

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Herd immunity isn’t a “strategy”. It’s a natural end to an epidemic. Herd immunity has already been reached.

Trying to stop it is flat earth, medieval nonsense.

The problem is that we threw 25,000 elderly and sick patients out of hospital and into care homes at the height of it and we shut down the NHS. That is what has caused the bulk of the deaths.

There are plenty of credible scientists out there who have argued against lockdown.

Two most prominent in the U.K.:

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine.
 

Sunetra Gupta professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford.

You’ll find their analysis easily. Only just yesterday, a paper by Heneghan forced Sturgeon to change the definition of Covid hospital admissions in Scotland. 

Heneghan is also the guy who told both governments that the tests were throwing up false positives due to detection of dead virus cells.

To suggest people like him are not credible scientists is ridiculous.

Mind you, antrin IS a bus driver so perhaps he is fully qualified to comment on the credibility of professional scientists. 

[oaksoft]

3 hours ago, Long John Baldy said:

Watch out, @TPAFKATS will be along soon to debunk any possibility that's got any truth to it.........................oh wait, he won't 

Naughty but hilarious. 

[Sue Denim]

5 minutes ago, portmahomack saint said:

Spain and France 

How do these countries define a Covid hospitalisation?

Scotland changed the definition yesterday and hospitalisations suddenly dropped by over 80% just like that.

What is the total number of hospital beds in these countries and how many of them are currently empty and how many were empty a month ago?

What is the false positive rate of the test in these countries?

 

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

Nope, I'm quite happy to discuss events in a rational manner I'm just pointing out the obvious delight you take in the excess deaths,.

Your incessant apples and oranges comparisons with Sweden, a country which has retained a publicly funded health service and the capacity and willingness (there was no free for all there) to deal with the pandemic is pointless, without the belated lockdown in March we'd have been a lot worse off.

Here in the UK approaching 8 months after the first Cobra meeting where we acknowledged we were facing a crisis we still don't have a working Test&Trace system - it's our overall crap handling of the situation from a lack of preparation to the government handing out stonking contracts to it's, usually incompetent, cronies rather than the lockdown specifically that has caused our disgraceful excess death total but don't let that stop you from gloating. 

 

I think you are probably correct but people have got to stop presenting this as a fact.

It's not a fact at all.

We have no real idea whether lockdown helped or not. We can only assume at this stage.

Same goes for apportioning blame for the excess deaths. Don't be so certain about any of this.

[oaksoft]

12 minutes ago, portmahomack saint said:

Spain and France 

Have hospitalisations and deaths gone up in those two countries since the rise in cases?

[Sue Denim]

1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

Heneghan is also the guy who told both governments that the tests were throwing up false positives due to detection of dead virus cells.

To suggest people like him are not credible scientists is ridiculous.

Mind you, antrin IS a bus driver so perhaps he is fully qualified to comment on the credibility of professional scientists. 

Heneghan was also the guy who forced PHE to chop 5k deaths off their total to bring them in line with the rest of the U.K.

As director of Oxford Uni’s centre for evidence based medicine, there can’t be many more scientists in this field out there who are more credible 

[oaksoft]

Just now, Sue Denim said:

Heneghan was also the guy who forced PHE to chop 5k deaths off their total to bring them in line with the rest of the U.K.

As director of Oxford Uni’s centre for evidence based medicine, there can’t be many more scientists in this field out there who are more credible 

But is he a bus driver though. That's what I want to know. 😂

[portmahomack saint]

2 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

How do these countries define a Covid hospitalisation?

Scotland changed the definition yesterday and hospitalisations suddenly dropped by over 80% just like that.

What is the total number of hospital beds in these countries and how many of them are currently empty and how many were empty a month ago?

What is the false positive rate of the test in these countries?

 

Spain had over 150 deaths yesterday alone, a few weeks ago they 1 or 2 a day...  but don't let me get in the way of a good conspiracy story... just crack on Sue and ignore me and any facts out there 

[Bud the Baker]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I think you are probably correct but people have got to stop presenting this as a fact.

It's not a fact at all.

We have no real idea whether lockdown helped or not. We can only assume at this stage.

Same goes for apportioning blame for the excess deaths. Don't be so certain about any of this.

Fair enough.

[Sue Denim]

5 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I think you are probably correct but people have got to stop presenting this as a fact.

It's not a fact at all.

We have no real idea whether lockdown helped or not. We can only assume at this stage.

Same goes for apportioning blame for the excess deaths. Don't be so certain about any of this.

@Bud the Baker

As an example, Argentina went into lockdown 4 days before the U.K.

The trajectory of the graph of deaths in Argentina has followed seasonality. Lockdown has made no difference. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Sue Denim]

5 minutes ago, portmahomack saint said:

Spain had over 150 deaths yesterday alone, a few weeks ago they 1 or 2 a day...  but don't let me get in the way of a good conspiracy story... just crack on Sue and ignore me and any facts out there 

conspiracy theory?
 

oh dear,

Conflating being anti lockdown with conspiracy theories has been a tactic of the pro lockdown brigade from the start....

can you tell me what conspiracy theory you think I’m putting out there? 

I suppose it’s easier than actually answering any of the questions I put to you.

Then again, I’m pretty certain that you don’t know the answers to any of them.

Do you really believe that 150 people suddenly died of Covid yesterday in Spain in such a massive jump?

What were the actual date of deaths for these cases and where did they happen?

Edited September 16, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Bud the Baker]

@Sue Denim

I'll always respond to reasonable people in a reasonable manner, your posts don't back up your claims you make, and the delight you take in repeating the number of excess deaths which everybody knows in ghoulish.

I don't mind if you keep on expressing your delight in other peoples tragedies but I will continue to call you out on it.

[portmahomack saint]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Have hospitalisations and deaths gone up in those two countries since the rise in cases?

I do enough fact checking without delving into the Spanish and french Government health websites, and anyway I struggle reading English never mind Spanish and French