Coronavirus

[oaksoft]

45 minutes ago, Slarti said:

56 minutes ago, La Roche Derriere said:

Oaksoft.
The false positive rate is based on the total number of tests.
If you don’t believe me have a chat with Prof Heneghan.
The Captain is correct.

It's the number of false positives (FP) divided by the number of false positives (FP) plus the number of true negatives (TN). So, FP/(FP+TN).

Thanks. Believe it or not I was actually trying to say that and f**ked up the post. 

I shouldn't post with brain fog. 

I'm OK now. I've eaten and had my morning tea.

Edited September 19, 2020 by oaksoft

[Cookie Monster]

Faraway telling us all it’s only the flu is looking more and more stupid every day.

What a walloper [emoji2]

So it's not just a flu. Glad you agree. [emoji54]

[oaksoft]

58 minutes ago, La Roche Derriere said:

Oaksoft.
The false positive rate is based on the total number of tests.
If you don’t believe me have a chat with Prof Heneghan.
The Captain is correct.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positive_rate

slarti is correct and sue has made a mistake. It's related to the total number of negative tests.

Don't let my brain fogged nonsense put you off. 

[oaksoft]

9 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

No, I understand perfectly. 
 

The reason you don’t elaborate any further is to avoid embarrassing yourself (yet again)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positive_rate

[Sue Denim]

Apart from the fact that most positives when there is low prevalence are actually false positives, there is also the issue that there are hundreds of respiratory viruses out there and they all start increasing from this point on.

And people are exposed to all these viruses all the time. If someone has a cold - and colds become more common after the schools go back - then they will have symptoms. They then get tested for Covid and they get back a positive test. Leaving aside that the test might actually be false, it’s the cold that is giving them the symptoms and not Covid.

The test cannot tell if you if it’s Covid that making you ill or whether it’s another virus that’s making you ill.

So raw Covid numbers of hospitalisations and deaths are going to increase from this point onwards. 
 

What really matters is the excess death numbers. Problem is that excess deaths will include casualties if the elderly being thrown out of hospitals, the NHS leaving a third empty beds, cancelling cancer screenings, etc, etc.

 

[oaksoft]

1 minute ago, Sue Denim said:

Apart from the fact that most positives when there is low prevalence are actually false positives, there is also the issue that there are hundreds of respiratory viruses out there and they all start increasing from this point on.

And people are exposed to all these viruses all the time. If someone has a cold - and colds become more common after the schools go back - then they will have symptoms. They then get tested for Covid and they get back a positive test. Leaving aside that the test might actually be false, it’s the cold that is giving them the symptoms and not Covid.

The test cannot tell if you if it’s Covid that making you ill or whether it’s another virus that’s making you ill.

So raw Covid numbers of hospitalisations and deaths are going to increase from this point onwards. 
 

What really matters is the excess death numbers. Problem is that excess deaths will include casualties if the elderly being thrown out of hospitals, the NHS leaving a third empty beds, cancelling cancer screenings, etc, etc.

 

I love the way you just brazen your way through your arithmetic mistakes. 

Most normal people are happy to hold their hands up.

Not you though.

You remind me of bazil and Dickson in that regard.

You'd be so very wrong to think I was complimenting you on this.

[Sue Denim]

5 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positive_rate

Deary me, I hoped you wouldn’t embarrass yourself like this.

In low prevalence, all the negatives are true.

If you’re going to try and prove me wrong, best not to link to a source that proves me right

[Sue Denim]

3 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I love the way you just brazen your way through your arithmetic mistakes. 

Most normal people are happy to hold their hands up.

Not you though.

You remind me of bazil and Dickson in that regard.

You'd be so very wrong to think I was complimenting you on this.

Deary me, you’ve tripled down on your mistake now.

You really need to stop digging now as you’re just going to look more and more foolish.

 

 

[Sue Denim]

@oaksoft denying that a false positive rate of around 1% in low prevalence means that most positives in mass testing are false is up there with stating that dividends are irrelevant in share valuations and asking me how to do simple compound interest.

If this is the calibre of scientist in the U.K., is it any wonder that the country is f**ked if the government is following the science 😂
 

Then again, I think we all know this Walter Mitty character is only a scientist in his own dreams. 

Edited September 19, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Slarti]

The prevalence is worked out by knowing how many people actually have it. You don't know the prevalence if you don't know how many false negatives or false positives there are. If every negative test turned out to be false then you would have a high prevalence. Therefore, false negatives are very important. They only become unimportant if you know for a fact (a real fact, not a Brazil fact) that there is a very low prevalence.

[Ayrshire Saints]

Julia Hartley Brewer verbatim dear oh dear a new low.

Lockdown 2 the Sequel imminent whether we like it or not unfortunately. No amount of stats and counter stats on here is going to influence anyone that matters, it's happening whether we like it or not (I don't). Without a vaccine this is going to be the script lockdown - ease - lockdown - ease with the easing to coincide with MPs recesses Summer, Christmas, Easter etc. Football along with all other live spectator events is f**ked !

[jaybee]

On 9/18/2020 at 8:18 AM, Sue Denim said:

After sending the vulnerable and sick to their deaths in April by throwing them out of hospital, the U.K. prepares to cull a few thousand more this autumn.

@Bud the Baker may want to shut down the discussion of deaths but you can be sure that when the death toll rises again as a result and it gets blamed on covid, he’ll be back on with @TPAFKATS cheering every death... just like they did in the spring.

YOU.........................take being an arsehole.......................... to a totally new level

[antrin]

1 hour ago, Slarti said:

The prevalence is worked out by knowing how many people actually have it. You don't know the prevalence if you don't know how many false negatives or false positives there are. If every negative test turned out to be false then you would have a high prevalence. Therefore, false negatives are very important. They only become unimportant if you know for a fact (a real fact, not a Brazil fact) that there is a very low prevalence.

I was thinking of having a Brazilian...

[Cookie Monster]

 

It's all the lizards fault. [emoji23]

[ALBIONSAINT]

5 hours ago, D.F.Riley said:

 

Hate to trigger a vice signaller like yourself Shull, but did you know they are getting a wage rise this year also 👍🏻 

[ALBIONSAINT]

4 hours ago, D.F.Riley said:

 

Still waiting on Arran sinking Mr Icke 

[Slarti]

I was thinking of having a Brazilian...

Feckin autocorrect.

But you wire in - no pictures, though.

[smcc]

7 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

Apart from the fact that most positives when there is low prevalence are actually false positives, there is also the issue that there are hundreds of respiratory viruses out there and they all start increasing from this point on.

And people are exposed to all these viruses all the time. If someone has a cold - and colds become more common after the schools go back - then they will have symptoms. They then get tested for Covid and they get back a positive test. Leaving aside that the test might actually be false, it’s the cold that is giving them the symptoms and not Covid.

The test cannot tell if you if it’s Covid that making you ill or whether it’s another virus that’s making you ill.

So raw Covid numbers of hospitalisations and deaths are going to increase from this point onwards. 
 

What really matters is the excess death numbers. Problem is that excess deaths will include casualties if the elderly being thrown out of hospitals, the NHS leaving a third empty beds, cancelling cancer screenings, etc, etc.

 

The symptoms of a head cold(runny nose, stuffy nose, sneezing and catarrh0 bear no relation to the symptoms of Covid 19 and people with head cold symptoms are not being advised to have a Covid test.

[smcc]

A runny nose is not part of Covid.

Edited September 19, 2020 by smcc

[FTOF]

2 hours ago, smcc said:

A runny nose is not part of Covid.

Indeed. 

Amazing the amount of clowns that seem to think they know more than MD's that have actually been to university and earned the right to speak about illnesses with a degree of knowledge.

 

[ALBIONSAINT]

3 hours ago, smcc said:

A runny nose is not part of Covid.

This is the WHO differences....

[Slarti]

This is the WHO differences....

So the only definitive differentiating symptoms between the cold, the flu and covid are sneezing, shortness of breath and diarrhoea.

 

[oaksoft]

47 minutes ago, Slarti said:

So the only definitive differentiating symptoms between the cold, the flu and covid are sneezing, shortness of breath and diarrhoea.

 

And the only major difference between normal flu and covid is the loss of taste or smell and not everyone with covid gets that.

Jeez. The winter is going to be a blast.

[FTOF]

Who to believe? A professor of genetic epidemiology seems to think not.

Quote

“We’ve also shown some negative signs in our app so if you have a runny nose or congestion, or sneezing, that’s really a sign that you absolutely do not have Covid,” he added.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/17/children-runny-nose-do-not-have-coronavirus-expert-insists-demand/

 

[Ayrshire Saints]

Over 300 cases in Scotland today, wee Nicky will be making plans for us all to get back into the dark ages very soon. 

Only if Boris doesn't beat her too it.

There is zero difference in the direction of travel UK wide now unfortunately, the narrative has been delivered with the clown prince declaring the 2nd wave being the seal of approval on whatever they see fit. It's pretty irrelevant who is delivering the bad news, it's the same outcome unfortunately. The mood music is now pretty similar Europe wide too with large regional lockdowns (population wise) across numerous countries.