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faraway saint

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46 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

The numbers certainly support this.

We are now ABOVE the average number of cases, probably down to more testing, that back in March/April and the fatalities are not even close to the numbers at that point. 

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None of that will stop NS going for another lockdown this week.

 

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48 minutes ago, Hendo said:

None of that will stop NS going for another lockdown this week.

 

I hope she doesn't. The science that seems to be running this is concentrating on numbers of cases which, given the massive jump in testing, needs to be looked at in that light and take into consideration the numbers badly affected by the virus. IMO the so called experts are loving this just a bit too much.

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4 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

I hope she doesn't. The science that seems to be running this is concentrating on numbers of cases which, given the massive jump in testing, needs to be looked at in that light and take into consideration the numbers badly affected by the virus. IMO the so called experts are loving this just a bit too much.

Had raised exactly this point in a discussion with some people earlier.

The end result, either serious illness or deaths, do not warrant further restrictions.

The "wait and see" brigade are ignoring the numbers I posted earlier. 

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11 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Had raised exactly this point in a discussion with some people earlier.

The end result, either serious illness or deaths, do not warrant further restrictions.

The "wait and see" brigade are ignoring the numbers I posted earlier. 

There is no "wait and see", while I accept that the number of positive cases recorded is largely down to a far greater number of tests being done now the number of hospitalisations and deaths is going so that argument is out of the window.

Going back to your graph I'd criticize it for the y-axis including the first wave (April-June) going up to 1500 as it obscures what is happening at present - hospitalizations & deaths increasing.

********************

Regarding present policy it's a bit of a shambles both at Westminster and Holyrood - letting 1st year students into Halls of Residence designed for communal living was, erm. a folly which should have been foreseeable & the 10pm bar curfew seem to ignore what the public are prepared to accept.

As for future policy my inclinations as ever are to err on the side of caution, however it's pointless trying to persuade people to do what they are unwilling to do. I'd probably be inclined to argue for some sorta full lockdown (2 weeks) around Christmas as it already seems to be pretty much that way for those industries and services that can afford it but the benefits would have to be explained and it would have to be announced soon rather than on the Winter Solstice when I will be following my customary practice of shagging virgins at my local Stone Circle.

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8 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

There is no "wait and see", while I accept that the number of positive cases recorded is largely down to a far greater number of tests being done now the number of hospitalisations and deaths is going so that argument is out of the window.

Going back to your graph I'd criticize it for the y-axis including the first wave (April-June) going up to 1500 as it obscures what is happening at present - hospitalizations & deaths increasing.

********************

Regarding present policy it's a bit of a shambles both at Westminster and Holyrood - letting 1st year students into Halls of Residence designed for communal living was, erm. a folly which should have been foreseeable & the 10pm bar curfew seem to ignore what the public are prepared to accept.

As for future policy my inclinations as ever are to err on the side of caution, however it's pointless trying to persuade people to do what they are unwilling to do. I'd probably be inclined to argue for some sorta full lockdown (2 weeks) around Christmas as it already seems to be pretty much that way for those industries and services that can afford it but the benefits would have to be explained and it would have to be announced soon rather than on the Winter Solstice when I will be following my customary practice of shagging virgins at my local Stone Circle.

The big question here is, to indulge in your solstice pastime, how do you tell which sheep are virgins?

Edited by stlucifer
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11 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

There is no "wait and see", while I accept that the number of positive cases recorded is largely down to a far greater number of tests being done now the number of hospitalisations and deaths is going so that argument is out of the window.

Going back to your graph I'd criticize it for the y-axis including the first wave (April-June) going up to 1500 as it obscures what is happening at present - hospitalizations & deaths increasing.

********************

Regarding present policy it's a bit of a shambles both at Westminster and Holyrood - letting 1st year students into Halls of Residence designed for communal living was, erm. a folly which should have been foreseeable & the 10pm bar curfew seem to ignore what the public are prepared to accept.

As for future policy my inclinations as ever are to err on the side of caution, however it's pointless trying to persuade people to do what they are unwilling to do. I'd probably be inclined to argue for some sorta full lockdown (2 weeks) around Christmas as it already seems to be pretty much that way for those industries and services that can afford it but the benefits would have to be explained and it would have to be announced soon rather than on the Winter Solstice when I will be following my customary practice of shagging virgins at my local Stone Circle.

What possible justification is there for a 2week full lockdown?

And why at Christmas?

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10 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

There is no "wait and see", while I accept that the number of positive cases recorded is largely down to a far greater number of tests being done now the number of hospitalisations and deaths is going so that argument is out of the window.

Going back to your graph I'd criticize it for the y-axis including the first wave (April-June) going up to 1500 as it obscures what is happening at present - hospitalizations & deaths increasing.

********************

Regarding present policy it's a bit of a shambles both at Westminster and Holyrood - letting 1st year students into Halls of Residence designed for communal living was, erm. a folly which should have been foreseeable & the 10pm bar curfew seem to ignore what the public are prepared to accept.

As for future policy my inclinations as ever are to err on the side of caution, however it's pointless trying to persuade people to do what they are unwilling to do. I'd probably be inclined to argue for some sorta full lockdown (2 weeks) around Christmas as it already seems to be pretty much that way for those industries and services that can afford it but the benefits would have to be explained and it would have to be announced soon rather than on the Winter Solstice when I will be following my customary practice of shagging virgins at my local Stone Circle.

These numbers are NOT even close to the numbers in March and April.

Look at the way the numbers of deaths went in relation to the cases back in the early months? 

Up to 1500? 

Obscured? The number of hospitalizations are not obscured, they are not included in these graphs. :blink:

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1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

What possible justification is there for a 2week full lockdown?

And why at Christmas?

It's already been argued to counter a resurgence in infections at half-term but as I said it's probably too late for that now.

As for Xmas as I said many businesses shut down before Xmas & don't open till after the new year - my prior company (vascular grafts) halted production with only a few people coming in to do maintenance. A virtual Xmas might be better than the traditional family get togethers but like I said the benefits would have to be well explained and in advance.

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18 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

These numbers are NOT even close to the numbers in March and April.

Look at the way the numbers of deaths went in relation to the cases back in the early months? 

Up to 1500? 

Obscured? The number of hospitalizations are not obscured, they are not included in these graphs. :blink:

Did I say they were?

They're clearly on the increase.

Look at your graph - the y-axis (the one that goes up) goes up to 1500. :whistle

Fair enough but hospitalizations are still rising, currently 2184 an increase of 684 on the previous week - it's not as if the two figures are unrelated as I had mentioned in the prior sentence.

***************

There is no "wait and see" we're going into winter with all the trends going in the wrong direction and people pissed of with poor decision making and flagrant breaches of the rules by prominent figures.

Edited by Bud the Baker
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27 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

Did I say they were?

They're clearly on the increase.

Look at your graph - the y-axis (the one that goes up) goes up to 1500. :whistle

Fair enough but hospitalizations are still rising, currently 2184 an increase of 684 on the previous week - it's not as if the two figures are unrelated as I had mentioned in the prior sentence.

Aye, but not proportionally to the same numbers of cases back in the early days.

The graph goes to 1500, the numbers don't. :lol:

This is the key issue for me, governments are reacting to cases with nothing to suggest these rises will see the rises in the requirements for ICU or the numbers of deaths. 

I understand your "err on the side of caution" view but we should be looking at further relaxing the current guidelines, not worrying about anything close to a full lockdown, Christmas or anytime. 

 

Edited by faraway saint
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7 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Aye, but not proportionally to the same numbers of vases back in the early days.

The graph goes to 1500, the numbers don't. :lol:

This is the key issue for me, governments are reacting to cases with nothing to suggest these rises will see the rises in the requirements for ICU or the numbers of deaths. 

I understand your "err on the side of caution" view but we should be looking at further relaxing the current guidelines, not worrying about anything close to a full lockdown, Christmas or anytime. 

 

The scale of the y-axis affects how the figures are viewed - it's a well know presentational trick when it comes to statistics.

https://www.callingbullshit.org/tools/tools_misleading_axes.html

**********************

Quote

Conclusion

In summary, data visualizations tell stories. Relatively subtle choices, such as the range of the axes in a bar chart or line graph, can have a big impact on the story that a figure tells. When you look at data graphics, you want to ask yourself whether the graph has been designed to tell a story that accurately reflects the underlying data, or whether it has been designed to tell a story more closely aligned with what the designer would like you to believe.

 

Edited by Bud the Baker
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31 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

The scale of the y-axis affects how the figures are viewed - it's a well know presentational trick when it comes to statistics.

https://www.callingbullshit.org/tools/tools_misleading_axes.html

**********************

 

The range of the axis is due to the previous numbers. FS was using it to compare so the axis could only be reduced to somewhere in the region of  1200. IF you want to show the rise over the last 2 weeks or so that's a totally different argument but it still wouldn't convince me the route taken should be another lockdown. 

Edited by stlucifer
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4 minutes ago, ALBIONSAINT said:

The days are short and folk generally can’t be arsed leaving the hoose 🍺🍷🍔

 

 

The previous lockdown lasted 4 months I think.

Those advocating a 2 week shutdown in 3 months time need to explain the logic behind that.

I'd say "explain the science" but there is no credible science now behind any of this.

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Just now, stlucifer said:

The range of the axis is due to the previous numbers. FS was using it to compare so the axis could only be reduced to somewhere in the region of  1200. IF you want to show the rise over the last 2 weeks or so that's a totally different argument but it still wouldn't convince ne the route taken should be another lockdown. 

FS has got this wrong. The overall point is still valid but the graph makes it look better than it is.

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1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

FS has got this wrong. The overall point is still valid but the graph makes it look better than it is.

Tell me how he could have made the HIS comparison without the large number then. I think you're missing the point.

Edited by stlucifer
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Just now, stlucifer said:

Tell me how he could have made the comparison without the large number then. I think you're missing the point.

Sigh!

I'm sure you are all decent folk and you are all welcome to your opinions but I'm not wasting any more of my time explaining how graphs work and how data can be skewed to favour a particular view.

Edited by oaksoft
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10 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Of course it's important.

Bud the Baker is right. Your graph is misleading.

You should stick to sarky comments. Your lack of ability to understand even the most basic of graphs is embarassing.

The only thing that's important is the numbers, not trying to deflect by squabbling about axis on a graph.:lol:

You should stick to doing what you do best.........................:byebye

See response below.

Oh, the highlighted bit, you do understand irony, or maybe not. 

9 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

The range of the axis is due to the previous numbers. FS was using it to compare so the axis could only be reduced to somewhere in the region of  1200. IF you want to show the rise over the last 2 weeks or so that's a totally different argument but it still wouldn't convince me the route taken should be another lockdown. 

 

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... on the Winter Solstice when I will be following my customary practice of shagging virgins at my local Stone Circle.


Liar. Faraway and Oaky aren't virgins and haven't been since the first time they were with you at a stone circle. :whistle
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18 minutes ago, stlucifer said:

The range of the axis is due to the previous numbers. FS was using it to compare so the axis could only be reduced to somewhere in the region of  1200. IF you want to show the rise over the last 2 weeks or so that's a totally different argument but it still wouldn't convince me the route taken should be another lockdown. 

....and my argument is that it is misleading when it comes to the current resurgence.

I'd have started a graph analysing current trends from August 1st and therefore have gone with a y-axis of 200 at the most.

*******************************

I understand why a full lockdown over Xmas will be a minority view, but BJ said that pandemic would be controlled within 3 months back in March, said the worst was over in June but is now saying that we are in for a bumpy ride to Xmas and beyond. Until we have a vaccine I'd always argue on the side of caution and remain of the opinion that a two week lockdown over Xmas is worth considering.

Edited by Bud the Baker
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10 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

....and my argument is that it is misleading when it comes to the current resurgence.

I'd have started a graph analysing current trends from August 1st and therefore have gone with a y-axis of 200 at the most.

*******************************

I understand why a full lockdown over Xmas will be a minority view, but BJ said that pandemic would be controlled within 3 months back in March, said the worst was over in June but is now saying that we are in for a bumpy ride to Xmas and beyond. Until we have a vaccine I'd always argue on the side of caution and remain of the opinion that a two week lockdown over Xmas is worth considering.

But that's NOT what was being discussed. It was specifically about the difference in number of deaths at the start of the pandemic when the number of cases was high and the current number of deaths now the numbers are rising. It's like arguing that Saint Mirren were sh!te while discussing St. Johnstone v Celtic.

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