Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, stlucifer said: But that's NOT what was being discussed. It was specifically about the difference in number of deaths at the start of the pandemic when the number of cases was high and the current number of deaths now the numbers are rising. It's like arguing that Saint Mirren were sh!te while discussing St. Johnstone v Celtic. That's why I argued that the graph was irrelevant to the current situation. I'm not trying to deny that I have a different narrative but as I've said my opinion is that revising the analysis to start on Aug 1st would be more relevant to the current situation and the immediate future. ************************ Going off at a tangent the government has just announced a massive increase in the daily number of cases recorded due to a "technical glitch" - adding figures from Sep 24-Oct 1 to yesterday's total! Given that we can't really trust the government's figures for key aspects of the pandemic and is it really unreasonable to err on the side of caution? It also brings into question the "optimism" that the resurgence in confirmed cases had maxed out... Edited October 4, 2020 by Bud the Baker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted October 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 57 minutes ago, oaksoft said: FS has got this wrong. The overall point is still valid but the graph makes it look better than it is. You do know this makes no sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said: That's why I argued that the graph was irrelevant to the current situation. I'm not trying to deny that I have a different narrative but as I've said my opinion is that revising the analysis to start on Aug 1st would be more relevant to the current situation and the immediate future. ************************ Going off at a tangent the government has just announced a massive increase in the daily number of cases recorded due to a "technical glitch" - adding figures from Sep 24-Oct 1 to yesterday's total! Given that we can't really trust the government's figures for key aspects of the pandemic and is it really unreasonable to err on the side of caution? It also brings into question the "optimism" that the resurgence in confirmed cases had maxed out... OK. Around 700 cases announced today. No deaths. How current do you want to be? Or does that not suit your narrative. Edited October 4, 2020 by stlucifer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, stlucifer said: OK. Around 700 cases announced today. No deaths. How current do you want to be? Or does that not suit your narrative. Well I wouldn't be changing my opinion based on one days figures, which are for Scotland only as the UK figures have been published yet - FSs graph was for the UK so you're changing horses mid-stream apples & oranges and all that! Plus we all know that the stattos like to take the weekend off so the figure is going to be artificially low anyway. A more relevant figure would be the rolling total for the week or does that not suit YOUR narrative? ***************** Not that I want to bang on about the lack of competency in the governments figures but the delay in the governments track&testing procedure led to them changing policy earlier in the week saying that tests could now be taken after 8 days and not 5 - you can't top changing your policy to suit the science incompetence. ****************** For the record, here is the provisional UK total for today - it's called comparing apples with apples! Quote UK records another 28 coronavirus deaths in hospitals in preliminary toll - up by ten on last week - with majority of fatalities in North East and Midlands Edited October 4, 2020 by Bud the Baker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russian Saint Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 OK. Around 700 cases announced today. No deaths. How current do you want to be? Or does that not suit your narrative.To me the only figures that count are the number cases v the number of deaths. If the cases are going up, but only a few have died in the past week........ surely that’s a good thing?If the number of cases are rising and only a few deaths, does the threat of further lockdowns make sense?I’m all for protecting the vulnerable (I haven’t been able to see my mother since March due to only two nominated family members being permitted) but the rest of us should be looking at getting back to some kinda normalcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 42 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said: That's why I argued that the graph was irrelevant to the current situation. I'm not trying to deny that I have a different narrative but as I've said my opinion is that revising the analysis to start on Aug 1st would be more relevant to the current situation and the immediate future. ************************ Going off at a tangent the government has just announced a massive increase in the daily number of cases recorded due to a "technical glitch" - adding figures from Sep 24-Oct 1 to yesterday's total! Given that we can't really trust the government's figures for key aspects of the pandemic and is it really unreasonable to err on the side of caution? It also brings into question the "optimism" that the resurgence in confirmed cases had maxed out... Yes it's unreasonable to err on the side of caution when the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations don't even begin to justify shutting down the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 33 minutes ago, oaksoft said: Yes it's unreasonable to err on the side of caution when the numbers of deaths and hospitalisations don't even begin to justify shutting down the economy. For two weeks at Xmas when it'll mostly be shut down anyway? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
branniganm Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said: For two weeks at Xmas when it'll mostly be shut down anyway? Are you saying we'll just a have short duration (2 week) lockdown in 3 months' time because people will be less inconvenienced re work, travel, schools, child care etc. That's a nonsense ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, branniganm said: Are you saying we'll just a have short duration (2 week) lockdown in 3 months' time because people will be less inconvenienced re work, travel, schools, child care etc. That's a nonsense. Not just me, the idea has been on the public agenda for a fortnight, there was also arguments for one over the mid-October breaks at schools/universities but the timescale made it impractical. What I'm saying is that if you're gonna have one at Xmas the case needs to be made well in advance. Quote PUBLISHED: 11:01, Mon, Sep 21, 2020 | UPDATED: 11:01, Mon, Sep 21, 2020 Professor Carl Heneghan has said the best time for a lockdown period would be over the Christmas break. The Oxford University professor told Sky News now is time for a "calm and cool" approach to the spike in coronavirus cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Russian Saint said: To me the only figures that count are the number cases v the number of deaths. If the cases are going up, but only a few have died in the past week........ surely that’s a good thing? If the number of cases are rising and only a few deaths, does the threat of further lockdowns make sense? I’m all for protecting the vulnerable (I haven’t been able to see my mother since March due to only two nominated family members being permitted) but the rest of us should be looking at getting back to some kinda normalcy. There's a time lag between the number of cases, next hospitalizations and then deaths. Edited October 4, 2020 by Bud the Baker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted October 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said: There's a time lag between the number of cases, next hospitalizations and then deaths. Aye, we know but the relevant time lag back in March/April showed a massive difference in the resulting deaths we are seeing now. Looks like your in the "wait and see" group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 minute ago, faraway saint said: Aye, we know but the relevant time lag back in March/April showed a massive difference in the resulting deaths we are seeing now. Looks like your in the "wait and see" group. Yeah but the number of deaths are going up on a rolling 7 day total. "Wait and see" which has been the de facto policy has clearly not worked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted October 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Just now, Bud the Baker said: Yeah but the number of deaths are going up on a rolling 7 day total. "Wait and see" which has been the de facto policy has clearly not worked. NOT in proportion to cases FFS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 minute ago, faraway saint said: NOT in proportion to cases FFS! Yeah but as cases go up (and the government still seems to have a problem recording them accurately 8 months into the pandemic) then after a lag of a fortnight or so so do deaths - and there is no appropriate smilie for this tragedy. The rolling 7 day total for people dying due to the pandemic is increasing there's no doubt about that - the government should've been looking for the first indicative signals of increased Covid in the water supply as a result of infected faeces, a fact was recognized as an early warning indicator in May yet we had to wait until September, a fortnight after the number of cases started to rise (and it's not as if the increase in testing started in mid-September) before BJ/NS introduced introduced tougher restrictions. Comparing where we are now with where we were in April is a false paradigm, it seems the best hope for the winter is that new medicines/treatments will reduce the mortality rate for the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted October 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said: Yeah but as cases go up (and the government still seems to have a problem recording them accurately 8 months into the pandemic) then after a lag of a fortnight or so so do deaths - and there is no appropriate smilie for this tragedy. The rolling 7 day total for people dying due to the pandemic is increasing there's no doubt about that - the government should've been looking for the first indicative signals of increased Covid in the water supply as a result of infected faeces, a fact was recognized as an early warning indicator in May yet we had to wait until September, a fortnight after the number of cases started to rise (and it's not as if the increase in testing started in mid-September) before BJ/NS introduced introduced tougher restrictions. Comparing where we are now with where we were in April is a false paradigm, it seems the best hope for the winter is that new medicines/treatments will reduce the mortality rate for the virus. If ye like. More smoke(screens) than after a fecking fire in California. Edited October 4, 2020 by faraway saint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, faraway saint said: If ye like. More smoke(screens) that after a fecking fire in California. 2 What's not true - we may indeed be testing more people than in April but more than September? The perceived wisdom about a month or so ago was that the number of cases was irrelevant as long as the death total was stable but the current facts are Cases are rising Hospitalizations are rising Death are rising We're still not recording the number of cases accurately - I've lost count of the number of amendments that have been made to the way the statistics are presented, as I've pointed out the was another "glitch" yesterday. What is the most accurate figure for fatalities - the strict government figure (within 28 days of a positive lab result) or where Covid is noted on the death certificate by a doctor which is still around 33% higher? We still don't have a world beating test&trace system, in fact I saw on the news this week that the systems for Scotland & England/Wales are incompatible. We may not have the worst record in the world but there is precious little to look back on with satisfaction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russian Saint Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 There's a time lag between the number of cases, next hospitalizations and then deaths.Not everyone that test positive goes into hospital, and not everyone that goes into hospital dies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, Russian Saint said: Not everyone that test positive goes into hospital, and not everyone that goes into hospital dies. Yeah where did I say either of these things, but the linkages and the time differentials are on record and are clear to see for anyone who cares to look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Erm yeah, as long as Boris is around I will only be the second nuttiest guy in the UK Quote Boris Johnson is reportedly thinking about lifting the ‘rule of six’ for 24 hours on Christmas day. Advisors were planning for the ‘rule of six’ to be in place for at least three months so it could end at the beginning of December, but have reportedly said the ban could be in place for a whole six months. The Government has warned that a second wave is ‘inevitable’ and has refused to rule out a national lockdown. A source told the Sun: ‘The PM is anxious to avoid being portrayed as Scrooge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russian Saint Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 Yeah where did I say either of these things, but the linkages and the time differentials are on record and are clear to see for anyone who cares to look.I didn’t say that you did chap, I’m merely stating a fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) This is what I said 3 hours ago, Bud the Baker said: There's a time lag between the number of cases, next hospitalizations and then deaths. you replied 53 minutes ago, Russian Saint said: Not everyone that test positive goes into hospital, and not everyone that goes into hospital dies. which is not what I said, merely pointing out a fact, that there's a time lag - for the third time now! The clue was there in the text all along - whooodathunkit? It is now the case that all three are rising, although with the cock-up in the counting of new cases means that count is likely to be skewed. Edited October 4, 2020 by Bud the Baker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russian Saint Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 This is what I said which is not what I said, merely pointing out a fact, that there's a time lag - for the second time! The clue was there in the text all along - whooodathunkit? According to STV. 1,526 new cases in two days, 4 deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate (not necessarily what they died of) ........ less than .5% I won’t hold my breath waiting for bodies piling up in the morgue. Meantime businesses are going to the wall, suicides are up (COVID related) ......... but let’s listen to Boris and Nicola, they know what’s best.let’s look at the stats after two weeks on the 1,526 and see where we are.[emoji207][emoji207][emoji207][emoji207][emoji207] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Bud the Baker said: What's not true - we may indeed be testing more people than in April but more than September? The perceived wisdom about a month or so ago was that the number of cases was irrelevant as long as the death total was stable but the current facts are Cases are rising Hospitalizations are rising Death are rising We're still not recording the number of cases accurately - I've lost count of the number of amendments that have been made to the way the statistics are presented, as I've pointed out the was another "glitch" yesterday. What is the most accurate figure for fatalities - the strict government figure (within 28 days of a positive lab result) or where Covid is noted on the death certificate by a doctor which is still around 33% higher? We still don't have a world beating test&trace system, in fact I saw on the news this week that the systems for Scotland & England/Wales are incompatible. We may not have the worst record in the world but there is precious little to look back on with satisfaction. Cases are obviously rising but UK deaths are at about 50-60 per day and flat-lining over the last week. Absolutely insignificant seeing as how this second wave has already been with us for well over a month. How many people are in hospital in the UK with covid right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said: This is what I said you replied which is not what I said, merely pointing out a fact, that there's a time lag - for the third time now! The clue was there in the text all along - whooodathunkit? It is now the case that all three are rising, although with the cock-up in the counting of new cases means that count is likely to be skewed. It's been about 6-10 weeks since this second wave started. How much of a time lag are you asking us to wait for? Edited October 4, 2020 by oaksoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted October 4, 2020 Report Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Russian Saint said: According to STV. 1,526 new cases in two days, 4 deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate (not necessarily what they died of) ........ less than .5% I won’t hold my breath waiting for bodies piling up in the morgue. Meantime businesses are going to the wall, suicides are up (COVID related) ......... but let’s listen to Boris and Nicola, they know what’s best. let’s look at the stats after two weeks on the 1,526 and see where we are. The 4 people who died would not have contracted the disease in the last 2 days, there is no direct linkage between these people and the 1526 who tested positive there is a time lag - your 0.5% figure is meaningless! What we do know is that Cases are rising Hospitalizations are rising Deaths are rising and that these facts need to be taken into consideration when making current decisions! Let's look at the stats again in a fortnight - right back atya! PS - I'm sure one of your compadres @stlucifer said there were no deaths today, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.