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faraway saint

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Never reached 20,000 ANY day, never mind AVERAGE, which you liked a few days ago.
I don't think I said the numbers were down to the number of tests, but it could be a reason. 
So, you're saying that despite us testing more than any other European country we're seeing an average of just under 16,000 and you REALLY think we were having 100,000 a day?
The USA, quite a big country, averaged just under 70,000 at it's peak and you REALLY think we had 100,000? [emoji38]
If you chose to believe this, fire on, I'm just interested why?


Seeing how your first figure was wrong I never bothered fact checking the rest.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

BBC News - Coronavirus infections still rising rapidly
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867

Screenshot_20201016-182313_Chrome.jpeg
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18 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:


 

 


Seeing how your first figure was wrong I never bothered fact checking the rest.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

BBC News - Coronavirus infections still rising rapidly
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54567867

Screenshot_20201016-182313_Chrome.jpeg

 

Seeing as your source is different from mines I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

I've tried to stick to the same source throughout, not scrape around for different figures to suit my hopes/views. 

You should be careful when you say figures are wrong, just saying. :lol:

image.png.aa3c8f973794c9802a7ec51ebc9bbe3b.png

Edited by faraway saint
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How many is this "not very many" and how do you know this?
Apart from road traffic accidents there's other ways people die, how many are added to the number to keep you happy? 


He doesn't seem to understand that it was just an example.

Why group 3 days together, oh I know, you LOVE the big numbers. :blink:
You are becoming the forum ghoul now that the previous political ghoul has, thankfully, disappeared.
I love what exactly?
The fact your a simpleton, yeah, maybe but I prefer my adults to have a modicum of common sense, that rules you out.
Isn't it strange how almost EVERYBODY that tries to debate with you ends up giving up?
My view on that is it's almost pointless, you have little ability in understanding anything more than a singular issue and will repeat till people drop you like a hot potato. :1eye
You actually love this type of response, gives you some sort of feeling of importance in your empty life. :byebye


That's two posts you've quoted where he's mentioned me - he must be missing me. [emoji38]
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4 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Never reached 20,00 ANY day, never mind AVERAGE, which you liked a few days ago.

I don't think I said the numbers were down to the number of tests, but it could be a reason. 

So, you're saying that despite us testing more than any other European country we're seeing an average of just under 16,000 and you REALLY think we were having 100,000 a day?

The USA, quite a big country, averaged just under 70,000 at it's peak and you REALLY think we had 100,000? :lol:

If you chose to believe this, fire on, I'm just interested why? 

 

 

Unless you are testing 100% of the population all the time, you really don't have any CERTAINTY as to what is going on.  Anything less, introduces margins of error. As a generalisation, this is dependent on the proportion of the population being tested. Smaller proportion being tested implies bigger margins of error and less ability to make accurate predictions.

Most deaths will have happened at the start of the epidemic. Unfortunately those most at risk have checked out already. Admittedly, conjecture on my part.

I do think there is a kind of muddled "strategy" with a gas on / gas off lockdown policy.  Hence the eat out to help out in August followed by the current screw down "tiers".  It is an attempt to spread out future deaths.  "Flatten the sombrero" - remember that ?

 

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46 minutes ago, branniganm said:

Unless you are testing 100% of the population all the time, you really don't have any CERTAINTY as to what is going on.  Anything less, introduces margins of error. As a generalisation, this is dependent on the proportion of the population being tested. Smaller proportion being tested implies bigger margins of error and less ability to make accurate predictions.

Most deaths will have happened at the start of the epidemic. Unfortunately those most at risk have checked out already. Admittedly, conjecture on my part.

I do think there is a kind of muddled "strategy" with a gas on / gas off lockdown policy.  Hence the eat out to help out in August followed by the current screw down "tiers".  It is an attempt to spread out future deaths.  "Flatten the sombrero" - remember that ?

 

Indeed but we only have what we have, the testing, which the lack of was an initial criticism, has been ramped up, now dropped by the government bashers.

It's a fair conjecture that the "cases" would increase but not a definite. 

It's probable that "most" deaths would have occurred in the early stages but still not certain as there's still a lot of people in that category.

The strategy, if there is one, is a mess.

I'm continually fecked off that we, the UK, as a nation have fcuked this up when plenty of countries have succeeded in keeping this virus at bay.

 

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11 hours ago, theknickerwetter said:

I never said any either of those people were fascist dictators , dawling.

And how could they be? It is not as if they are trying to insideously take control of our lives , is it ?

Your problem is you are too heavily into commy conspiracy theories and bacon fantasies................

Erm yeah you did! :oops

Quote
I like you , you make me laugh Why is it fascist dictators are always wee guys , Mussolini , Hitler , little Nap' , Franco , Julius Caesar and of course ......................................................you now know who

 

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13 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Never reached 20,00 ANY day, never mind AVERAGE, which you liked a few days ago.

I don't think I said the numbers were down to the number of tests, but it could be a reason. 

So, you're saying that despite us testing more than any other European country we're seeing an average of just under 16,000 and you REALLY think we were having 100,000 a day?

The USA, quite a big country, averaged just under 70,000 at it's peak and you REALLY think we had 100,000? :lol:

If you chose to believe this, fire on, I'm just interested why? 

 

 

4 out of the last 9 days have been in the 15-20k range I quoted but just to keep you happy I checked and the running 7 day average is indeed in the that range.

 Don't understand what you're trying to say..

No I'm saying two SAGE members gave an estimate of 100,000 cases per day back in April (the height of the pandemic).

Quote

The UK was likely being hit with 100,000 coronavirus cases a day at the height of the pandemic, the Government’s top scientist has admitted.

 

 If the SAGE members are correct, and that's a big if, this along with our improved treatments would explain why the rise in deaths has been a lot slower in Sep/Oct compared to April. It certainly makes more sense to me than many of the theories that emerge on a daily basis.

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8 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

4 out of the last 9 days have been in the 15-20k range I quoted but just to keep you happy I checked and the running 7 day average is indeed in the that range.

 Don't understand what you're trying to say..

No I'm saying two SAGE members gave an estimate of 100,000 cases per day back in April (the height of the pandemic).

 If the SAGE members are correct, and that's a big if, this along with our improved treatments would explain why the rise in deaths has been a lot slower in Sep/Oct compared to April. It certainly makes more sense to me than many of the theories that emerge on a daily basis.

Yeah, "likely" which means next to nothing as these scientists have been making stuff up since day one.

And yeah, it's a massive IF.

As I pointed out, the USA, over 4 times the population of the UK, have averaged 70,000 and you expect us to have 100,000?  :lol:

I fail to be convinced, yet anythings possible in this mess.

The low number of deaths could just as easily be down to the age group, who have no, or little, serious symptoms.

The random targeting by governments of certain business's, with no concrete evidence they are contributing to the spread has, IMO, lost the early positive belief the public had, so now we have more and more people not giving a flying.

 

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25 minutes ago, Yflab said:

Is Sweden getting it right?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-54561201

Personally I’d prefer their approach. Protect the vulnerable and let’s get on with living and rebuilding our nation and economy.

It's certainly been a more straightforward approach, less complicated and has stayed fairly consistent throughout.

Certainly one of the countries I'd rather live in right now compared to this fecking mess.

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20 hours ago, bazil85 said:

It absolutely is, my point was you'll still somehow take the opposite side of me despite how much of a stick on my view is. In this example, accidental death related to Covid19. Do you think anyone believes your view is actually, the numbers for accidental deaths will be substantial? :whistle

 

I think hit by a bus was just a flippant example that any cause of death within 28 days of a positive test is registered as covid I believe. So if someone is dying of cancer and it happens to be within 28 days the death certificate would say covid rather than cancer. I don't think. Anyone is implying everyone is dying from accidents. Nobody, including you, know exactly how many deaths are solely down to covid 19 due to the way it is recorded and reported. 

I also believe this conversation was had by someone with you months ago. 

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4 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Yeah, "likely" which means next to nothing as these scientists have been making stuff up since day one.

And yeah, it's a massive IF.

As I pointed out, the USA, over 4 times the population of the UK, have averaged 70,000 and you expect us to have 100,000?  :lol:

I fail to be convinced, yet anythings possible in this mess.

The low number of deaths could just as easily be down to the age group, who have no, or little, serious symptoms.

The random targeting by governments of certain business's, with no concrete evidence they are contributing to the spread has, IMO, lost the early positive belief the public had, so now we have more and more people not giving a flying.

 

We all seem to be watching three figures - cases recorded, hospitalizations & deaths due to Covid.

1. No. of Cases - Can cases recorded ever be accurate, it certainly couldn't have been the case in March/April when far fewer tests were carried out up to 100,000 actual cases in the UK at this period is possible. I presume your figure of 70,000 for the US is recorded cases which would not be a like-for-like comparison. Pedant alert - US (328M) population is just shy of 5 times the UK's (67M).

2. Hospitalization due to Covid - The easiest to calculate and while it's not hit figures for March/April it's going up amongst all age groups.

3. Deaths - Erm yeah, there's been a few changes to how that's being tallied, I guess you just have to trust that the stattos have gone back over the figures with a fine toothcomb and that we're comparing like-for-like when comparing (sic) current figures with those for 6 months ago.

One things for sure - proper paid stattos don't work at the weekend, they gather furtively in groups of 6 and drink strong liquor.

**************************

On a general point I agree the situation is out of control with just about all trust in the Scottish & UK govts. gone,  I'm less sure about NI & Wales but shudder to think of the reaction of Scottish yoons had Sturgeon "banned" travel from English hotspots - can it even be done unilaterally?

 

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1 minute ago, Bud the Baker said:

We all seem to be watching three figures - cases recorded, hospitalizations & deaths due to Covid.

1. No. of Cases - Can cases recorded ever be accurate, it certainly couldn't have been the case in March/April when far fewer tests were carried out up to 100,000 actual cases in the UK at this period is possible. I presume your figure of 70,000 for the US is recorded cases which would not be a like-for-like comparison. Pedant alert - US (328M) population is just shy of 5 times the UK's (67M).

2. Hospitalization due to Covid - The easiest to calculate and while it's not hit figures for March/April it's going up amongst all age groups.

3. Deaths - Erm yeah, there's been a few changes to how that's being tallied, I guess you just have to trust that the stattos have gone back over the figures with a fine toothcomb and that we're comparing like-for-like when comparing (sic) current figures with those for 6 months ago.

One things for sure - proper paid stattos don't work at the weekend, they gather furtively in groups of 6 and drink strong liquor.

**************************

On a general point I agree the situation is out of control with just about all trust in the Scottish & UK govts. gone,  I'm less sure about NI & Wales but shudder to think of the reaction of Scottish yoons had Sturgeon "banned" travel from English hotspots - can it even be done unilaterally?

 

Is that the same as over 4 times the population? :lol:

Go away, I have football to watch, ya trumpet. :P

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1 minute ago, Bud the Baker said:

@antrin or any other grammar freaks :spud5- how bad it it grammatically to use the same word twice in one sentence?

I just couldn't think of a better option. it it :wacko:

IS that the duplication you're querying or the ones below... ? :lol:

4 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

We all seem to be watching three figures - cases recorded, hospitalizations & deaths due to Covid.

1. No. of Cases - Can cases recorded ever be accurate, it certainly couldn't have been the case in March/April when far fewer tests were carried out up to 100,000 actual cases in the UK at this period is possible. I presume your figure of 70,000 for the US is recorded cases which would not be a like-for-like comparison. Pedant alert - US (328M) population is just shy of 5 times the UK's (67M).

2. Hospitalization due to Covid - The easiest to calculate and while it's not hit figures for March/April it's going up amongst all age groups.

3. Deaths - Erm yeah, there's been a few changes to how that's being tallied, I guess you just have to trust that the stattos have gone back over the figures with a fine toothcomb and that we're comparing like-for-like when comparing (sic) current figures with those for 6 months ago.

One things for sure - proper paid stattos don't work at the weekend, they gather furtively in groups of 6 and drink strong liquor.

**************************

On a general point I agree the situation is out of control with just about all trust in the Scottish & UK govts. gone,  I'm less sure about NI & Wales but shudder to think of the reaction of Scottish yoons had Sturgeon "banned" travel from English hotspots - can it even be done unilaterally?

 

It's not bad grammatically maybe just clumsy - but you're writing about a limited subject that demands utilising the language that helps define it, not writing a novel... or film script.

I might have written, "we're comparing like-for-like when looking at (sic) current figures and those of 6 months ago".

Or "examining".

 

Also, in here who actually READS a post before slagging it?  :)

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On 10/16/2020 at 8:50 AM, bazil85 said:

But that isn't going to be very many is it?

The majority of people in the statistics are those where Covid19 has contributed and hastened death. That's why we are seeing deaths rising, it's not just that around 10 times more people (than say August/ early September) are getting knocked down while they happen to have Covid19. 

OK. Dr Basil. I know you'll tell me how you know this.

Edited by stlucifer
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1 hour ago, antrin said:

IS that the duplication you're querying or the ones below... ? :lol:

It's not bad grammatically maybe just clumsy - but you're writing about a limited subject that demands utilising the language that helps define it, not writing a novel... or film script.

I might have written, "we're comparing like-for-like when looking at (sic) current figures and those of 6 months ago".

Or "examining".

Also, in here who actually READS a post before slagging it?  :)

My first school was run by nuns and mistakes were generally punished with a thick rule to the head - I never mastered grammar and found it a particularly painful experience.  :hammer

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4 hours ago, slapsalmon said:

I think hit by a bus was just a flippant example that any cause of death within 28 days of a positive test is registered as covid I believe. So if someone is dying of cancer and it happens to be within 28 days the death certificate would say covid rather than cancer. I don't think. Anyone is implying everyone is dying from accidents. Nobody, including you, know exactly how many deaths are solely down to covid 19 due to the way it is recorded and reported. 

I also believe this conversation was had by someone with you months ago. 

Yeah I know that, it was a bit tongue in cheek but my point stands, FS will always take the against me perspective in any argument. 

That will be part of it, where people were going to die anyway but IMO the excess death stats over this year has shown that Covid19 is a big factor in hastening people to deaths door. Something that must be considered in any restrictions/ lack there of at this stage.

The conversation was had earlier this year yes, and my view was exactly the same. What I would say is if more data comes out that points to all these people would have died anyway, that would likely be solid grounds for a rethink but I don't imagine many decision makers globally are ignorant enough to have missed that. 

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2 hours ago, stlucifer said:

OK. Dr Basil. I know you'll tell me how you know this.

- Excessive death stats over the course of the pandemic. 

Regarding specifically road accidents (which is obviously tongue in cheek like I mentioned) 

- Previously released road accident statistics

- The fact correlation of covid19 deaths and road accidents in 2020 isn't national news 

Edited by bazil85
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3 hours ago, antrin said:

IS that the duplication you're querying or the ones below... ? :lol:

It's not bad grammatically maybe just clumsy - but you're writing about a limited subject that demands utilising the language that helps define it, not writing a novel... or film script.

I might have written, "we're comparing like-for-like when looking at (sic) current figures and those of 6 months ago".

Or "examining".

 

Also, in here who actually READS a post before slagging it?  :)

The only thing which really matters is whether the point was understood properly by the reader.

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