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faraway saint

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1 hour ago, antrin said:

I saw that Gov graph but it's only relevant up to Dec 4.

The line has started climbing again.

 

Indie Sage's Prof Christina Pagel (like you) believed that the figures looked to be in control 3 weeks ago, but she has come clean and publicly apologised a fortnight ago, as her optimistic projected fall transformed into an increase.

You should look at the start of the weekly (till now) indie Sage youtube discussions.  Christina (or Kit) of indie Sage  resent figures that thy have gathered as up to date and accurately as they can.  And they only bear a 'resemblance' to what the gov offers.

Here is the edition in which Christina is optimistic - Dec 4

indie_SAGE 04.12.20 - YouTube

And the following week where she says her projection may have failed to follow through.  

indie_SAGE 11.12.20 - YouTube

 

You should look at these more current data, Cap'n

 

I forgot to link Friday's indie Sage hour.

indie_SAGE 18.12.20 - YouTube

Professsor Kit Yates - "Worst set of data I've had to present this far".

That's in terms of cases rising and hospital admissions.

Nothing positive - little that was new.  :(

A wee bit about the new variant.

 

They/indie Sage have decided that NOW is a good time to go on their Xmas hols.  :(

 

Indie SAGE are an even more extreme bunch of middle class lefties with a huge political agenda.

That first graph is the most up to date ONS data. Indie SAGE are not party to anything more up to date.

The ONS will be updating their data tomorrow morning.

The peak in the Covid deaths in my second graph is within the date range of the first graph and there is no similar peak in the first graph. 
 

The 2 graphs are not compatible. If the first is correct then the second is wrong. 

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23 minutes ago, antrin said:

In Asia, partly because they've had more practice with pandemics, they have set up and run(with also in some cases with some authoritarian help) successful localised Track and Trace systems.  

They really know QUICKLY where virus/the R number  may be growing and can react in a targeted manner where it's needed.

We haven't a clue: where it's spreading, why it's spreading or the extent to which we should be worried.

Yep track and trace is a huge part of the solution, so is social distancing and wearing masks. Lockdowns are a last resort and IMO tend to show failure of policy in the first place. Very few lockdowns if any in Asia but I bet before this pandemic countries like UK would have sneered in superiority at  Asia. Maybe now they can learn lessons properly.

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43 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

Why are you singling out Nicola Sturgeon when this is advice we are seeing in multiple countries and locations across the world? If you used a wee bit of common sense you would see the advice is to make other plans for your Christmas dinner, not fire it oot on the decking :whistle

The reason I’m singling out Nicola Sturgeon is because I happen to live in Scotland and she’s the one coming out with the ridiculous restrictions that affect my life doh! :1eye

The advice Sturgeon is dishing out is based on flawed data and she is wrong.

I’ll therefore be ignoring her advice.

Nicola’s advice has so far increased the  death toll and ruined thousands of livelihoods. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

I’m well aware that the sheep will unquestioningly follow what those in power tell them.

Fill your boots. 

Nobody is unquestioningly following anything its just they are a good bit brighter than you.

I get the feeling you would oppose any comments government made no matter who the party was on any subject.

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2 minutes ago, lenziebud said:

Yep track and trace is a huge part of the solution, so is social distancing and wearing masks. Lockdowns are a last resort and IMO tend to show failure of policy in the first place. Very few lockdowns if any in Asia but I bet before this pandemic countries like UK would have sneered in superiority at  Asia. Maybe now they can learn lessons properly.

There HAVE been sporadic lockdowns in Asia whenever a rush of results alerted them to an outbreak.

But we've all been having to wear masks in public for shopping and public transport and that hasn't impacted on the spread in a couple of months - so that can't be an answer.  Masks have achieved nothing.

A big Danish Scientists report about the wearing of masks has not been allowed publication and peer review as - it is assumed - it basically says whayt I did in the above lines.

In schools, at home...  are still the likeliest transmission areas...   due to not wearing masks, maybe AND to no social distancing.

Also (as doubtless Sue D would agree) Just because more people ARE catching a covid, it doesn't mean they are dying due it.  We just don't know.

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1 minute ago, Sue Denim said:

The reason I’m singling out Nicola Sturgeon is because I happen to live in Scotland and she’s the one coming out with the ridiculous restrictions that affect my life doh! :1eye

The advice Sturgeon is dishing out is based on flawed data and she is wrong.

I’ll therefore be ignoring her advice.

Nicola’s advice has so far increased the  death toll and ruined thousands of livelihoods. 

 

Really ? I'd never have guessed. 

The real problem I have is its the likes of you who get away with it and some poor soul who is tried to do everything correctly gets COVID and dies a horrible death.

Or alternatively a moron like you is asymptomatic and passes it on to many.

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16 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Indie SAGE are an even more extreme bunch of middle class lefties with a huge political agenda.

You don't know the politics of all participants.  It could just be that, as scientists, they are not beholden to government and can openly criticise poor practice and can suggest other ways of looking at the data. 

That first graph is the most up to date ONS data. Indie SAGE are not party to anything more up to date.

Well, as on 4th Dec C Pagell was talking about 4th Dec data, and you're still doing so 3 weeks later, -when Indie Sage has offered data up to but not including last week, (not about the deaths - but the hospitalisations which can be the covid precursors to death) - perhaps you shouldn't be so easily dismissive?  

The ONS will be updating their data tomorrow morning.

The peak in the Covid deaths in my second graph is within the date range of the first graph and there is no similar peak in the first graph. 
The 2 graphs are not compatible. If the first is correct then the second is wrong. 

We read that more than once - where you've stated it above.

 

Edited by antrin
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7 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Doesn't the new rule not come into place till boxing day? 

Yeah I could have been clearer but I say this amidst messages coming out at both Holyrood & Westminster level that the new restrictions may last until the spring - in a situation where cases, hospitalizations and now deaths all on the rise simultaneously is there not a case for tightening up ASAP?

In many ways what has been achieved is remarkable (433,000 tests yesterday, 2,584,000 over 7 days at UK level) but I retain my opinion that once again we're tightening up later than we should have.

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4 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

Yeah I could have been clearer but I say this amidst messages coming out at both Holyrood & Westminster level that the new restrictions may last until the spring - in a situation where cases, hospitalizations and now deaths all on the rise simultaneously is there not a case for tightening up ASAP?

In many ways what has been achieved is remarkable (433,000 tests yesterday, 2,584,000 over 7 days at UK level) but I retain my opinion that once again we're tightening up later than we should have.

Our GPs annually do 1m flu jabs a week. That's rather ordinary.

So, in the midst of a pandemic, with a wee bit of urgency,  you'd think that a competent government could perhaps ramp testing and jabbing up a wee bit more?  I do.

 

Our local assembly rooms and a car park have been commandeered for tests of those who want them, at last.

You're right, though about "later than we should have".

Edited by antrin
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46 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

The reason I’m singling out Nicola Sturgeon is because I happen to live in Scotland and she’s the one coming out with the ridiculous restrictions that affect my life doh! :1eye

The advice Sturgeon is dishing out is based on flawed data and she is wrong.

I’ll therefore be ignoring her advice.

Nicola’s advice has so far increased the  death toll and ruined thousands of livelihoods. 

 

A wee bit of logical thinking would have allowed most to arrive at what she meant. Do you disagree now I have explained it to you?

That's incorrect, your views throughout this pandemic have been shown time and time again to be wrong, your last stronghold in Sweden has now been shown to have had a completely wrong approach for anyone that values human life. Everything else being equally we are still seeing massive excessive deaths for the year correlating to spikes in Covid, that puts it beyond reasonable doubt that the pandemic is NOT over and that we must mitigate against the spread of this virus to help save lives. Your shameful, far right view of getting on with it so you can go to the pub and don't miss another holiday is horrific. Human life should always come first when we can mitigate against it. 

Your last point can now be observed to be incorrect, we can track the positive benefit increased restriction have on limiting the spread of this virus and as such saving lives, the massive number of excessive deaths would have to be purely coincidental for your view to stand up, this is also beyond reasonable doubt to be wrong.

Much like FS and the death tolls, you've been proven wrong and a bigger person would put their hands up to that. 

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Another Bozo and the clown troop address at 5.00. Is this the London backlash forcing the weak one into a UK wide blanket ban on all Christmas day mixing, wouldn't surprise me !
f**k me a press conference just to tell us food supplies are not a problem and if you can't get lettuce, broccoli or tomatoes just have good old British "alternatives" like Turnips, Beetroot or Cabbage !
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5 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:
1 hour ago, Ayrshire Saints said:
Another Bozo and the clown troop address at 5.00. Is this the London backlash forcing the weak one into a UK wide blanket ban on all Christmas day mixing, wouldn't surprise me !

f**k me a press conference just to tell us food supplies are not a problem and if you can't get lettuce, broccoli or tomatoes just have good old British "alternatives" like Turnips, Beetroot or Cabbage !

It's tough watching it, it's hardly any wonder people don't follow the advice when you hear and see the dithering 

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21 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:
1 hour ago, Ayrshire Saints said:
Another Bozo and the clown troop address at 5.00. Is this the London backlash forcing the weak one into a UK wide blanket ban on all Christmas day mixing, wouldn't surprise me !

f**k me a press conference just to tell us food supplies are not a problem and if you can't get lettuce, broccoli or tomatoes just have good old British "alternatives" like Turnips, Beetroot or Cabbage !

Guess which 3 items have totally sold out of our local Co-op!?

(Smugly, I've got hunners of the other three in my allotment or pickled in jars in my garage.  Quite boring, I must concede...)

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Guess which 3 items have totally sold out of our local Co-op!?
(Smugly, I've got hunners of the other three in my allotment or pickled in jars in my garage.  Quite boring, I must concede...)
Sainsbury's CEO sparked the rush on them with his comments this morning. Anyone buying lettuce or tomatoes today for use on Friday are clearly not fussy !

Horrible wee kicker form Witty at the end to expect even tighter restrictions after Christmas. They know how to cheer us up !!!
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3 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:

Sainsbury's CEO sparked the rush on them with his comments this morning. Anyone buying lettuce or tomatoes today for use on Friday are clearly not fussy !

Horrible wee kicker form Witty at the end to expect even tighter restrictions after Christmas. They know how to cheer us up !!!

Not much room to get "tighter" as we're only a smidgen from the March lockdown.

Edited by faraway saint
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2 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:

Sainsbury's CEO sparked the rush on them with his comments this morning. Anyone buying lettuce or tomatoes today for use on Friday are clearly not fussy !

Horrible wee kicker form Witty at the end to expect even tighter restrictions after Christmas. They know how to cheer us up !!!

I didnae watch/listen - what did Whitty say?

How can it be further tightened?

Are they proposing to ration knicker elastic or something similarly pointless?

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11 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

18% of hospital beds in Wales are empty as of today 

This number of empty beds at this time of year is unprecedented 

https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Health-and-Social-Care/NHS-Hospital-Activity/nhs-activity-and-capacity-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/nhsbed-by-date-use

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18956757.coronavirus-south-east-hospital-beds-90-per-cent-full/

Selective posting and spin, something you have done throughout, it doesn't work. 

Can I also clarify, do you accept as of yesterday 29% of Welsh hospital patients (general and acute) contained covid19 patience so your points that "the pandemic is over" is wrong? 

Nearly a third of all people in Welsh hospitals have the virus, you must accept it is beyond doubt this isn't over by any parameter? 

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10 minutes ago, antrin said:

I didnae watch/listen - what did Whitty say?

How can it be further tightened?

Are they proposing to ration knicker elastic or something similarly pointless?

You won't have almost lost the will to carry on by not listening or watching.

Never mind, will be in lockdown in new year, could have been avoided with swifter, tougher actions short term instead of fannying around. 

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2 minutes ago, Cumbriansaint72 said:

You won't have almost lost the will to carry on by not listening or watching.

Never mind, will be in lockdown in new year, could have been avoided with swifter, tougher actions short term instead of fannying around. 

On what grounds would tougher actions been justified in Scotland? 

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