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faraway saint

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Sadly another day of record death figures but some light at the end of the tunnel with recorded cases. Despite testing probably being around the highest levels and availability, weekly averages continue to decline, seems a decent indicator to things going in the right direction. 

With vaccinations ramping up, hopefully a good sign the end is in sight for the virus major impacts on our day to day lives.  

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Latest weekly mortality figures out today from the NRS

All cause mortality was 1.7% *lower* than the 5 year average.

Yes, you read that right.

Not only are there *zero* excess deaths in Scotland, all cause mortality is currently *negative*
 

And yet there were 368 covid deaths out of a total of 1,534

Funnily, deaths of all causes other than covid were sharply down.

Deaths from cancer down 17%, deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s down 32%, deaths from heart disease and stroke down 17%, all compared with the 5 year average. 
 

And looking at the place of occurrence, deaths in hospitals are 8% lower than the average with deaths in care homes 17% lower.

Its a pseudo second wave. 
 

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The pseudo second wave can’t be denied. Record lows of non covid mortality.

When covid deaths go up in the pseudo second wave, non covid excess deaths go down and vice versa. All in perfect sync.

And the latest week figures show an unbelievable decline in non covid deaths. Impossible. 

07D77E11-9871-49DC-9912-A0A602DC82F9.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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45 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Latest weekly mortality figures out today from the NRS

All cause mortality was 1.7% *lower* than the 5 year average.

Yes, you read that right.

Not only are there *zero* excess deaths in Scotland, all cause mortality is currently *negative*
 

And yet there were 368 covid deaths out of a total of 1,534

Funnily, deaths of all causes other than covid were sharply down.

Deaths from cancer down 17%, deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s down 32%, deaths from heart disease and stroke down 17%, all compared with the 5 year average. 
 

And looking at the place of occurrence, deaths in hospitals are 8% lower than the average with deaths in care homes 17% lower.

Its a pseudo second wave. 
 

Every time you make up one of your Covid Statements this happens 

splash cliff diving GIF by Red Bull

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4 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

 

Not only are there *zero* excess deaths in Scotland, all cause mortality is currently *negative*
 

Not according to this report which directly quotes the NRS figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

The question isn't whether you are bullshitting or not.

The question is why you are doing it and what you hope to gain by it.

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14 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Not according to this report which directly quotes the NRS figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

I hadn't seen this report.  I expected the 1918 / 20 period to be significantly affected by the Spanish Flu epidemic given that it was believed to have been brought into the UK via the Glasgow Docks.  The Registrar General for Scotland report for 1918 recorded that 78,372 deaths (39,144 male and 39,228 female) were registered in 1918. The report confirmed that at least 17,575 deaths that year were attributable to influenza. This was probably an underestimation; some deaths were ascribed to other causes and complications due to the presence of influenza, for example, ‘bronchitis’ or ‘pneumonia’?  Perhaps this means that the "flu" killed sufficient numbers in these times for the excess not to be considered excessive>

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14 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Not according to this report which directly quotes the NRS figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

The question isn't whether you are bullshitting or not.

The question is why you are doing it and what you hope to gain by it.

Deary me.

That article is talking about the *entire* pandemic. I’m not disputing that the pandemic in the spring caused a huge number of excess deaths. 
 

Indeed, my above quite clearly shows huge excess deaths in the pandemic in the Spring. 
 

My issue here is about the “second wave”. The numbers I’ve quoted above relate solely to last week’s results.

If you are going to comment on my posts please at least know what you’re talking about. 

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15 minutes ago, rabuddies said:

I hadn't seen this report.  I expected the 1918 / 20 period to be significantly affected by the Spanish Flu epidemic given that it was believed to have been brought into the UK via the Glasgow Docks.  The Registrar General for Scotland report for 1918 recorded that 78,372 deaths (39,144 male and 39,228 female) were registered in 1918. The report confirmed that at least 17,575 deaths that year were attributable to influenza. This was probably an underestimation; some deaths were ascribed to other causes and complications due to the presence of influenza, for example, ‘bronchitis’ or ‘pneumonia’?  Perhaps this means that the "flu" killed sufficient numbers in these times for the excess not to be considered excessive>

Excess deaths are calculated by comparing deaths in any one year against the average of the previous 5 years.

Back in 1918, the number of folk dying each year was much higher than it is now.
 

In addition, the previous 5 years would have covered the period of World War 1.

 

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10 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Deary me.

That article is talking about the *entire* pandemic. I’m not disputing that the pandemic in the spring caused a huge number of excess deaths. 
 

Indeed, my above quite clearly shows huge excess deaths in the pandemic in the Spring. 
 

My issue here is about the “second wave”. The numbers I’ve quoted above relate solely to last week’s results.

If you are going to comment on my posts please at least know what you’re talking about. 

It's beyond reasonable doubt that Covid is hammering the UK this winter, death recording, hospital reports and the response from all four nations means there is no doubt in any reasonable persons mind there is a damaging Covid wave. Kindly be a better person and stop trolling around this horrible virus. 

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50 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

It's beyond reasonable doubt that Covid is hammering the UK this winter, death recording, hospital reports and the response from all four nations means there is no doubt in any reasonable persons mind there is a damaging Covid wave. Kindly be a better person and stop trolling around this horrible virus. 

Overall mortality is normal just now baz. That is a fact. 
 

And the lockdowns you support have led to thousands of deaths so far, will lead to thousands more and have saved no-one.

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49 minutes ago, Yflab said:

But he’s got a PhD. That means he is more intelligent than the rest of us peasants put together. 😂 

I’m not the only one who is noticing that there are huge numbers of covid deaths being announced despite overall mortality being normal. 
 

As can be clearly seen from the graph below, in the “second wave” (note to @oaksoft - talking about the second wave here), as covid deaths go up, deaths of other causes go down and vice versa, in sync.

 

20AA3806-E218-42AD-B8D5-CE57AD1982DA.jpeg

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The WHO have now come out with a new way of defining cases.... 

Along with the coming of spring and summer, this will drastically reduce “cases” and allow them to declare the vaccines a great success.

Without this new case definition and as we don’t know  if the vaccines will reduce transmission, the pandemic would never end and we’d have a pseudo third wave next winter. 
 

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

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1 hour ago, rabuddies said:

I hadn't seen this report.  I expected the 1918 / 20 period to be significantly affected by the Spanish Flu epidemic given that it was believed to have been brought into the UK via the Glasgow Docks.  The Registrar General for Scotland report for 1918 recorded that 78,372 deaths (39,144 male and 39,228 female) were registered in 1918. The report confirmed that at least 17,575 deaths that year were attributable to influenza. This was probably an underestimation; some deaths were ascribed to other causes and complications due to the presence of influenza, for example, ‘bronchitis’ or ‘pneumonia’?  Perhaps this means that the "flu" killed sufficient numbers in these times for the excess not to be considered excessive>

A graph of absolute deaths per year from 1860 in Scotland below. 

2AE6418B-749A-4B3C-9098-7D65E72354D8.jpeg

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26 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Overall mortality is normal just now baz. That is a fact. 
 

And the lockdowns you support have led to thousands of deaths so far, will lead to thousands more and have saved no-one.

On average over 1,000 deaths a day are being registered for people that have died within 28 days of a positive covid test, for 100% of those cases to be purely coincidental is an utter ridiculous claim.

For the pandemic to be "over" months ago as well, there would have to have been  1 million+ falsified/ inaccurate positive covid tests. There is no rationality behind your claim, it is clearly trolling. Be a better person and pick a different subject. 

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55 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Overall mortality is normal just now baz. That is a fact. 
 

OK, Sue...  I'll bite.

I really can't be bothered but... in the interest of true (not fake) facts... overall mortality is NOT now normal.

I think you are comparing current covid death rates with normal death rates, which means  you are looking at chalk and cheese.  Or perhaps you're comparing the death numbers for this year against those of earlier years.  Also an invalid comparison.

I know you have been avoiding pointing out that there's a big difference between death rates and winter death rates.  And a good reason to avoid it (and thus believe in your protestations of there being nothing special happening) is because we won't know the scale of winter deaths for this year for a while yet.

The best way to compare mortality between this winter and 2017-18 (which was the most lethal on record) is look at the figs for Sep-Dec.  And this autumn has already had 15,000 more deaths than 17-18, which is surely quite abnormal...?

Perhaps when the data are fully in for Jan Feb March in 2020, (there are significant lags in deaths, their registration and then reporting) you will better, more clearly, understand just how lethal the new variant is, despite NHS becoming much more proficient at staving off deaths.

Meantime, methinks thou dost protest too much... and apart from a misplaced sense of fun, I can't see why you should persist in ignoring reality.

 

 

Edited by antrin
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