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faraway saint

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2 hours ago, bazil85 said:

One of my worries is the virus spreading in countries with quite low vaccination rates. If we look at India as an example, is there the risk that large infection rates offers more chances for variants to evolve that become more successfully transmissible in vaccinated populations who are mixing more? For example a variant that still brings out more severe symptoms and allows it to pass from person to person despite the vaccination. Such a variant could take hold quickly as the world opens up. 

I feel it is completely acceptable to be concerned and worried when the world is still in the clutches of a pandemic, can't get my head around why people don't think that's a fair view. 

Viruses have mutated or evolved since the beginning of time. It's a good example of the power of media perpetrating misgivings and lies about mutations that people are so stirred up into a constant state of fear about variants.

Viruses mutate randomly but the dominant strain is always going to end up as the one that will become more infectious and less deadly. A virus exists for only one reason and that's to multiply and spread...it does not learn, it does not knowingly evade. The dominant strain of any respiratory virus is the one which will move from host to host quickest and infect the most numbers in doing so. So of all these random mutations that happen, anything that mutates to be any more deadly will generally mutate itself out of existence relatively quickly as it doesn't have time to infect people and take hold.

Edited by djchapsticks
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22 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

Viruses have mutated or evolved since the beginning of time. It's a good example of the power of media perpetrating misgivings and lies about mutations that people are so stirred up into a constant state of fear about variants.

Viruses mutate randomly but the dominant strain is always going to end up as the one that will become more infectious and less deadly. A virus exists for only one reason and that's to multiply and spread...it does not learn, it does not knowingly evade. The dominant strain of any respiratory virus is the one which will move from host to host quickest and infect the most numbers in doing so. So of all these random mutations that happen, anything that mutates to be any more deadly will generally mutate itself out of existence relatively quickly as it doesn't have time to infect people and take hold.

I don't think we are out of the woods yet regarding new variants and mutations. We have seen the need annually for updated flu vaccinations for many.

I know coronavirus and the flu are different but I am still not 100% confident we are on easy street with the virus just yet and can know with certainty what the future holds on mutations. Surely if this was a foregone conclusion on our future, we would be seeing a fair bit of conversation on that from scientists? I don't understand the benefit in continuing to hold unfounded concerns on future variants. 

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7 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

I don't think we are out of the woods yet regarding new variants and mutations. We have seen the need annually for updated flu vaccinations for many.

I know coronavirus and the flu are different but I am still not 100% confident we are on easy street with the virus just yet and can know with certainty what the future holds on mutations. Surely if this was a foregone conclusion on our future, we would be seeing a fair bit of conversation on that from scientists? I don't understand the benefit in continuing to hold unfounded concerns on future variants. 

To drive vaccination uptake upwards. That's more or less what it's been about since the start. If everything is fine and dandy, less people are inclined to get vaccines, so the rhetoric of staying safe and remaining wary needs to be rolled out.

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Just now, djchapsticks said:

To drive vaccination uptake upwards. That's more or less what it's been about since the start. If everything is fine and dandy, less people are inclined to get vaccines, so the rhetoric of staying safe and remaining wary needs to be rolled out.

Possibly some reason to that yes, I'm a bit disappointed in uptake in my age group and younger. Know a fair number of people in my work and elsewhere that haven't gotten it. 

Still, I will hold reservation on us being clear of this for sometime to come, I still feel there is a level of unpredictability that warrants caution and concern for the future.  

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1 minute ago, bazil85 said:

Possibly some reason to that yes, I'm a bit disappointed in uptake in my age group and younger. Know a fair number of people in my work and elsewhere that haven't gotten it. 

Still, I will hold reservation on us being clear of this for sometime to come, I still feel there is a level of unpredictability that warrants caution and concern for the future.  

It's far too early to be disappointed in uptake in any group below 40 as the vaccine is still being rolled out and at a decent pace amongst that demographic.

When all is said and done, over 85% of the adult population is going to be fully vaccinated and more protected through prior infection. We've in a fantastic spot right now and it will only improve.

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1 minute ago, djchapsticks said:

It's far too early to be disappointed in uptake in any group below 40 as the vaccine is still being rolled out and at a decent pace amongst that demographic.

When all is said and done, over 85% of the adult population is going to be fully vaccinated and more protected through prior infection. We've in a fantastic spot right now and it will only improve.

Still feel it could have been higher when you look at the uptake in the older age groups. I don't imagine my experience of people around me is unique in uptake. 

I hope you are right, things do look good now but the reassurance I need to lose concerns going forward, aren't available. 

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I'm not really keeping up with this stuff anymore but I thought they were getting rid of screens because they prevented good ventilation?
Haven't noticed physically or seen any reference of their removal. Certainly not in my own workplace that even has a bit that anyone can walk up/in to.
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2 hours ago, djchapsticks said:

Viruses have mutated or evolved since the beginning of time. It's a good example of the power of media perpetrating misgivings and lies about mutations that people are so stirred up into a constant state of fear about variants.

Viruses mutate randomly but the dominant strain is always going to end up as the one that will become more infectious and less deadly. A virus exists for only one reason and that's to multiply and spread...it does not learn, it does not knowingly evade. The dominant strain of any respiratory virus is the one which will move from host to host quickest and infect the most numbers in doing so. So of all these random mutations that happen, anything that mutates to be any more deadly will generally mutate itself out of existence relatively quickly as it doesn't have time to infect people and take hold.

Probably the majority of times, but not always.

The eventual "dominant" strain of SARS Cov-1 became significantly more lethal.

It didn't reach the levels of the current pandemic because, unlike the current virus, which is infectious before symptoms appear,  SARS Cov 1 only became infectious when symptoms appeared. Therefore it was easier to contain the spread using rigorous public health measures. 

However, having said that, it certainly looks like future management of the current virus will run much like the way that we currently manage influenza, which will allow normality to be achieved eventually.

A good wee opinion piece by the guy below.

How Will the Coronavirus Evolve? - Scientific American

Home - William A. Haseltine PhD William A. Haseltine PhD (williamhaseltine.com)

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, bazil85 said:

"Cookie has it correct here to an extent baz."

Was that not what this referenced to? Process of elimation for me given what he mentioned in his post & you not agreeing on face covering going forward "care and caution"

So you don't think anyone should approach the future of this virus with concern & caution given the last 18+ months? Your opinion but absolute madness. 

I used the phrase "to an extent".

I then made it crystal clear that I was responding to his comment about deaths and hospitalisations being the only thing that mattered.

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Just now, oaksoft said:

I used the phrase "to an extent".

I then made it crystal clear that I was responding to his comment about deaths and hospitalisations being the only thing that mattered.

They’ll be the ‘only thing that matters’ in weeks, months, even possibly years Oaks. Having a cautious & concerned mind going forward given what we have faced is a perfectly valid viewpoint.
 

You don’t need to agree with that, tbh I never took you as a caution to the wind kind of person but there we go. 

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5 hours ago, djchapsticks said:

Honestly? Non-existent.

A single virus mutation can change a virus by an absolute maximum of 0.3%, most mutations are significantly less than even this. It's akin to getting a spot on your face - you still recognise the face as the same but with a minor blemish.

Vaccine escape occurs when a virus is allowed to mutate several times over the course of months, years or decades and the vaccine is not updated to counteract and respond to this. Even then, vaccine escape does not mean vaccine resistant. Efficacy rates may well drop in instances but the vaccine is still fighting the same virus at the end of the day...it doesn't mutate into a whole new virus in spite of some of the absolutely ludicrous statements indicating as such at the turn of the year with regards to the Kent variant from professional people who should and do know better.

Also, as we know that labs are constantly working to tweak covid vaccines to keep up with any variants of concern, the chances of a virus mutating to something that 100% dodges vaccines, quite simply is not going to happen. 

Viruses also generally mutate to become more infectious and less deadly and preliminary German reports seem to suggest that although the delta variant is approx. 40% more transmittable, primary data shows it's up to 75% less deadly. This follows all known rules of virus mutation in history and is something that significantly is rarely, if ever, mentioned by the media.

Influenza still kills tens of thousands in the U.K. every winter, despite vaccines. It’s clearly not less deadly.

Weekly deaths in Scotland below.

EDD48BBD-DDBA-404B-BEFC-13C51E280869.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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17 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

The vaccine impairs the immune system in the 2 weeks after its given.

This is what is driving this current wave, despite it being summer.

The vaccine is an unmitigated disaster 

To what extent, professor?

does that explain why the groups being affected by the current dominant variant tend to be single-dosed or undosed?  

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These stats that keep getting bandied about showing the efficacy of the vaccine are amusing.

What they don’t tell you in the MSM - but you can read in the studies themselves - is that someone only qualifies as “vaccinated” 3 weeks after they’ve had a dose.

Someone who is within 3 weeks of a dose is “unvaccinated”

And the vast majority of deaths and cases are folk who are within 3 weeks of vaccination 

This is the biggest health catastrophe in history and it’s entirely man made.

Edited by Sue Denim
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5 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

These stats that keep getting bandied about showing the efficacy of the vaccine are amusing.

What they don’t tell you in the MSM - but you can read in the studies themselves - is that someone only qualifies as “vaccinated” 3 weeks after they’ve had a dose.

Someone who is within 3 weeks of a dose is “unvaccinated”

And the vast majority of deaths and cases are folk who are within 3 weeks of vaccination 

This is the biggest health catastrophe in history and it’s entirely man made.

:lol:

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I hate to piss on anybody's chips but the numbers that matter, Hospital, ICU & Deaths are continuing to rise.

ICU not so much TBH but hospital and deaths growing almost daily.

The numbers are still low, this must be remembered, but, unsurprisingly the age group who are leading the way in cases are the 25-44 range.

Generally known as fcukwits. 

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33 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

These stats that keep getting bandied about showing the efficacy of the vaccine are amusing.

What they don’t tell you in the MSM - but you can read in the studies themselves - is that someone only qualifies as “vaccinated” 3 weeks after they’ve had a dose.

Someone who is within 3 weeks of a dose is “unvaccinated”

And the vast majority of deaths and cases are folk who are within 3 weeks of vaccination 

This is the biggest health catastrophe in history and it’s entirely man made.

So the vast majority of folk who are ending up seriously ill or dying are in fact unvaccinated given they are still within that 3 weeks?

That is quite the bombshell but I'm pretty certain it is also counter productive to your argument. 😂

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