Coronavirus

[Cookie Monster]

Unfcukingbelievable [emoji33]


BBC News - Coronavirus: Greater Manchester Police warning after 660 parties shut down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

[faraway saint]

Just now, Cookie Monster said:

Unfcukingbelievable


BBC News - Coronavirus: Greater Manchester Police warning after 660 parties shut down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

This weekend could be carnage, more so with the weather looking good down sowf. 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Unfcukingbelievable [emoji33]


BBC News - Coronavirus: Greater Manchester Police warning after 660 parties shut down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

People are dicks

Not sure it's helpful for either BBC or GMP to release this info on eve of Easter weekend though.

[oaksoft]

13 hours ago, slapsalmon said:

How? You were absolutely f**king miles out. Quoting numbers that hadn't been seen anywhere in the world. We all just don't get it though because you're too clever 😂. Let this one go and hope everybody forgets. 

You could always kid on you're panic buying bog roll to take the heat off. Shit. Wait.... 

You understand that since I posted those numbers almost the entire world has been under a lockdown right?

You also understand that those predictions were based on nothing changing right?

There's a reason I'm calling Faraway an idiot and it looks like you are joining him.

[oaksoft]

12 hours ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said:

 

Right, just catching up on this thread and I’m about to commit the cardinal sin of responding to posts before finishing the thread. In doing so, I will probably make a rip roaring khunt of myself.

I’m on record as saying I’m a fan of both your posting styles and content on here, polar opposite as they are.

On this occasion tho Oaky, I think you’ve let yourself down a wee bit.

Agree with it or disagree with it, the  above  post must be just about the most fulsome post I’ve ever seen FS make on here (didnae think he had it in him).

Your response is poor I’m afraid. He took the time post what he did and it was worthy of a reasoned response.

I think your guilty on this thread of posting responses when you think you have one and then just playing the “I’m not discussing this with you” card when you don’t. 

You haven't made a rip-roaring c**t of yourself but it's definitely worth reading the whole thread to get the context of why I shut down talking to him on this issue.

You are of course entitled to your own opinion.

Edited April 9, 2020 by oaksoft

[oaksoft]

13 hours ago, slapsalmon said:

Hisnfigures aren't just out, they are absolutely miles out. Laughably so. 

 

 

I wasn't miles out when I said we were two weeks behind Italy in terms of daily death rates.

You don't mention that because presumably that's not convenient for your argument.

Like I said, I'm happy to take criticism when I'm wrong but you are playing the c**t here - just like Faraway.

You're in good company.

Edited April 9, 2020 by oaksoft

[ALBIONSAINT]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

Unfcukingbelievable


BBC News - Coronavirus: Greater Manchester Police warning after 660 parties shut down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

Some may say it’s shameless, so scatter 

[ALBIONSAINT]

I love how he has managed to coordinate his skin tone with his wardrobe 

[slapsalmon]

35 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You understand that since I posted those numbers almost the entire world has been under a lockdown right?

You also understand that those predictions were based on nothing changing right?

There's a reason I'm calling Faraway an idiot and it looks like you are joining him.

You're numbers have been f**ked from the very beginning 😂😂😂

[faraway saint]

42 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You understand that since I posted those numbers almost the entire world has been under a lockdown right?

You also understand that those predictions were based on nothing changing right?

There's a reason I'm calling Faraway an idiot and it looks like you are joining him.

Wait a minute, you posted your drivel on 28th March, the current lock down was in place since the 23rd yet you persisted the numbers would go through the roof, surpassing Italy and taking us over 16,500 as I recall. 

So NOTHING has changed except your embarrassing attempts to justify your wild figures and call everyone else idiots.

You might want to check the mirror if you want to see an idiot. 😅😅😅

[TediousTom]

3 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

 

 

Yes

 

Well I sincerely hope they get through this.

 

 

[faraway saint]

30 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I wasn't miles out when I said we were two weeks behind Italy in terms of daily death rates.

You don't mention that because presumably that's not convenient for your argument.

Like I said, I'm happy to take criticism when I'm wrong but you are playing the c**t here - just like Faraway.

You're in good company.

You also dismissed the top medical officer in Italy when he said things would level off, thinking you knew better, like the retail industry who said there was no shortages, you seen some pictures in social media so  that was enough for you to justify filling your house with toilet rolls.

Dear oh dear, keep digging, you'll be in Australia soon. 😅😅😅

[Tommy]

2 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

Unfcukingbelievable


BBC News - Coronavirus: Greater Manchester Police warning after 660 parties shut down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688

It isn't just the new hospitals that we need that are getting built, some new jails might help as well for the party animals 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

I love how he has managed to coordinate his skin tone with his wardrobe 

Indeed

[faraway saint]

19 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

To be fair, he did say at the start that his graphs were for if nothing was done to curtail the virus (or words to that effect).

However, that doesn't change my opinion that it was a futile exercise and he was just wasting his time as there were (and still are) too many unknowns to successfully (in any meaningful way) predict it. You would need a barrow load of information about any other region you were comparing (and this one) that just wasn't (and really still isn't) available to the public. That doesn't mean that people with access to a lot more of the information shouldn't be attempting to model it, just that it is pointless for anyone without any of that information to try it.

In my opinion, his graphs (if he really had to do them), should have been presented as a,

"This is probably the scenario given the current trends, let's see what effect the lockdown etc has.",

sort of idea and stating that in reality there would, at some point, be a peak and/or plateau and that the exponential rise obviously wouldn't continue until everyone in the country/world had been infected.

In reality, it is the analysis after the fact that will give the information that helps preparation for the next outbreak.

Personally, I think the danger to the general public has been blown out of proportion, but time will tell. It will be interesting to see what happens in China now that Wuhan is open again.

I'm well aware with so many "unknowns" and using another country was always going to produce inaccurate numbers.

The bit that makes me laugh is after doing the numbers and graphs he didn't bat an eyelid at the growth.

I, again, said immediately that there was little chance he would be close as it quite simply didn't stack up.

It's all irrelevant, stubbornly sticking to his flawed graphs and calling people idiots just shows a lack of class. 

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Slartibartfast said:

To be fair, he did say at the start that his graphs were for if nothing was done to curtail the virus (or words to that effect).

However, that doesn't change my opinion that it was a futile exercise and he was just wasting his time as there were (and still are) too many unknowns to successfully (in any meaningful way) predict it. You would need a barrow load of information about any other region you were comparing (and this one) that just wasn't (and really still isn't) available to the public. That doesn't mean that people with access to a lot more of the information shouldn't be attempting to model it, just that it is pointless for anyone without any of that information to try it.

In my opinion, his graphs (if he really had to do them), should have been presented as a,

"This is probably the scenario given the current trends, let's see what effect the lockdown etc has.",

sort of idea and stating that in reality there would, at some point, be a peak and/or plateau and that the exponential rise obviously wouldn't continue until everyone in the country/world had been infected.

In reality, it is the analysis after the fact that will give the information that helps preparation for the next outbreak.

Personally, I think the danger to the general public has been blown out of proportion, but time will tell. It will be interesting to see what happens in China now that Wuhan is open again.

I did say pretty much all of that slarti. I don't think I could have been clearer. I went out of my way not to over-interpret the trend. That's the problem. Too many people wanting to jump down my throat without taking the time to either ask me or read what I've written. That's their problem and I'm not engaging with them further on the issue.

[The Original 59er]

As a nation we are generally sensible, but there are a fair number of effing edgits out there who may well be the cause of a total shutdown on anyone moving anywhere. 660 "parties" in Greater Manchester is just complete madness.

My daughter made a great comparison:

If you said to 100 people that you have a 3% chance of dying by just going out there and mixing with your friends and everyone else, you would find that they would basically just ignore it and say "it won't happen to me"!

If however you put 100 sweets down on a table and three were actually cyanide made to look exactly like the rest of the sweets I bet you that there would be hardly any takers.

 

So maybe we should start saying it as it is. You have more than a 3% chance of dying within the next 30 days if you continue to go out and socially interact, let's see what that might do!

[Cookie Monster]

As a nation we are generally sensible, but there are a fair number of effing edgits out there who may well be the cause of a total shutdown on anyone moving anywhere. 660 "parties" in Greater Manchester is just complete madness.
My daughter made a great comparison:
If you said to 100 people that you have a 3% chance of dying by just going out there and mixing with your friends and everyone else, you would find that they would basically just ignore it and say "it won't happen to me"!
If however you put 100 sweets down on a table and three were actually cyanide made to look exactly like the rest of the sweets I bet you that there would be hardly any takers.
 
So maybe we should start saying it as it is. You have more than a 3% chance of dying within the next 30 days if you continue to go out and socially interact, let's see what that might do!

What kind of sweets, might make a difference. [emoji16]

[chalky1]

10 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

What kind of sweets, might make a difference.

Revels 😄 Or is that just standard if you get the coffee flavoured one?

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Bloody Germans. Sending their army over here to deliver ventilators.

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, The Original 59er said:

As a nation we are generally sensible, but there are a fair number of effing edgits out there who may well be the cause of a total shutdown on anyone moving anywhere. 660 "parties" in Greater Manchester is just complete madness.

My daughter made a great comparison:

If you said to 100 people that you have a 3% chance of dying by just going out there and mixing with your friends and everyone else, you would find that they would basically just ignore it and say "it won't happen to me"!

If however you put 100 sweets down on a table and three were actually cyanide made to look exactly like the rest of the sweets I bet you that there would be hardly any takers.

 

So maybe we should start saying it as it is. You have more than a 3% chance of dying within the next 30 days if you continue to go out and socially interact, let's see what that might do!

I think a lot of this might be down to people who are not going to be told what to do by anyone. Same with the family caught trying to get to their holiday home in the Lakes.

If that's correct then we'll see more of this happening as the lockdown continues. I wouldn't be surprised to find widespread violation of the lockdown if it goes on for more than another few weeks and persistent hot weather arrives.

[linwood buddie]

5 hours ago, TediousTom said:

Well I sincerely hope they get through this.

 

 

An elderly lady along from my daughter died from it and my daughter has not left the house , she will not go over the door and is lucky enough that her hubby is off just now or they would not get any shopping.She is terrified any of them get it , the grandson has been wrapped in cotton wool.

[faraway saint]

As far as I can see, Worldometer not updated as yet, looks like a small drop from yesterday.

881 today, 938 yesterday including the additional fatalities in the community. 

I'm surprised these deaths, outside hospitals, were "ignored" until now? 

 

[Hiram Abiff]

Oxfam: For three billion people the pandemic will be a killer - "this virus will starve us before it makes us sick"

[Hiram Abiff]

The official US Covid19 projections so far have overestimated hospitalisations by a factor of 8, ICU beds needed by a factor of 6.4, and ventilators needed by a factor of 40.5.