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faraway saint
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14 hours ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Stringent lockdowns tend to be linked to higher infection rates

The Oxford University Coronavirus Government Response Tracker compares around 150 countries giving them a stringency score that reflects how strict a country's lockdown measures are. Oxford has plotted the stringency index against the number of Covid-19 cases for that country.

The trend line indicates that stricter lockdown measures are associated with an increased spread of the virus:

 

5DCD1FA1-DE9C-497D-9844-3E34049F5E44.jpeg

Completely ignorant of population density. The need for more stringent lockdown is linked to the demographic. To think countries like Italy, China & USA have caused more Covid19 cases by having people in much less contact with each other is beyond ridiculous.  Lockdown measures are pretty much last resort because they know the massive issue faced, it isn't a way to stop people getting it completely, it is to curb it. 

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13 hours ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Covid 19 is a magical cure for heart disease, cancer, strokes, etc in New York

 

3DF48A1F-85EB-4D4E-B99A-C6D24842A52C.jpeg

No one is denying there is crossover, there's still 3,000 excess deaths on last year with Covid19 appearing on a large number of death certificates. There will be other positive factors with lockdown as well as negative

- Less accidents outside (car crashes for example)

- Less people getting the flu & other contagious diseases  

- Less on street & gang related homicide  

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Consultant oncologist Karol Sikora warns of the catastrophic impact the lockdown is having on non-COVID-19 patients. “Some stroke and heart attack patients are routinely waiting more than two hours for an ambulance, while 2,300 cancer diagnoses are being missed each week because patients are not going to see their GP or because they are not being referred for urgent tests and scans at hospital,” he writes. “Another 400 cancers a week are, it is estimated, being missed because breast, cervical and bowel cancer screening has been suspended. For any of these patients, delay can be a death sentence.” Since the virus struck, the number of patients who are being referred for cancer treatment has dropped by 75%. By Sikora’s estimation, the combined effect of all these delays will be 50,000 excess cancer deaths.

But who cares about another 50,000 deaths, eh @bazil85

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1 hour ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Here’s your statistics @bazil85

Comparison of daily deaths England v Sweden adjusted for population

Notice the curve is flattened regardless of lockdown baz?

But never mind the statistics baz, you carry on with that aligning of the planets 😂

 

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Is there a reason you missed off the last 7 days of data in that graph?

ET. There are more problems than that. You've put in false numbers for Sweden's daily deaths which have routinely gone above 100 per day in that time period and are now almost double that.

 

Edited by oaksoft
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1 hour ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Here’s your statistics @bazil85

Comparison of daily deaths England v Sweden adjusted for population

Notice the curve is flattened regardless of lockdown baz?

But never mind the statistics baz, you carry on with that aligning of the planets 😂

 

4E586D3D-D373-438A-8E8B-8E784A5E8AB4.jpeg

Here's a useful article for you on why like for like comparisons are very difficult. Don't let facts like Sweden being more than double the land mass size of England with about 1/5 the population get in the way of your comparison... 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52311014 

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1 hour ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Consultant oncologist Karol Sikora warns of the catastrophic impact the lockdown is having on non-COVID-19 patients. “Some stroke and heart attack patients are routinely waiting more than two hours for an ambulance, while 2,300 cancer diagnoses are being missed each week because patients are not going to see their GP or because they are not being referred for urgent tests and scans at hospital,” he writes. “Another 400 cancers a week are, it is estimated, being missed because breast, cervical and bowel cancer screening has been suspended. For any of these patients, delay can be a death sentence.” Since the virus struck, the number of patients who are being referred for cancer treatment has dropped by 75%. By Sikora’s estimation, the combined effect of all these delays will be 50,000 excess cancer deaths.

But who cares about another 50,000 deaths, eh @bazil85

Right now it is completely factual that excess deaths are far more attached to Covid19 than anything else. Without a lockdown that would be even higher. The proof in this is without a lockdown, people with the virus will be in contact with more people and as such more people get sick, it is common sense. 

We know that people will die due to other causes (there is no scenario where people don't die right now) and we need to try and take the path that results in the least number of deaths. Right now, as of 23rd April 2020, that path is lockdown. If the tide changes as some have predicted (as above) then that's when the action plan changes, not right now where the facts point to more deaths from Covid19. 

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1 hour ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Here’s your statistics @bazil85

Comparison of daily deaths England v Sweden adjusted for population

Notice the curve is flattened regardless of lockdown baz?

But never mind the statistics baz, you carry on with that aligning of the planets 😂

 

4E586D3D-D373-438A-8E8B-8E784A5E8AB4.jpeg

 

48 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Is there a reason you missed off the last 7 days of data in that graph?

ET. There are more problems than that. You've put in false numbers for Sweden's daily deaths which have routinely gone above 100 per day in that time period and are now almost double that.

 

Below is something a little more up to date and more accurate. As you can see new cases in the UK (with far more testing than anytime previously) has been roughly the same level since 1st April with only 2 or 3 days of spikes. In Sweden, they've just had their third biggest day on record of new cases with only 1 day in the last seven lower than 1st of April. This is despite my earlier point of Sweden being a much less densely populated country. It also has far more one dweller homes than the UK which is considered a major factor in their approach. 

 

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Edited by bazil85
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53 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Is there a reason you missed off the last 7 days of data in that graph?

ET. There are more problems than that. You've put in false numbers for Sweden's daily deaths which have routinely gone above 100 per day in that time period and are now almost double that.

 

Aye, they have been over 100 on quite a few days, mostly down to the delay in reporting.

The total of 1,937 over 40 days averages out at just over 48 a day. (Slight correction, been 42 days since the first recorded death, giving an average of just over 46 per day)

As has been said, no real point in comparing Sweden to the UK, far too many differences to show anything worth talking about.

Their approach, controversial, certainly isn't as great as it looks with a fairly high number per million of population, but still well under countries who have adopted a more stringent approach. 

image.png.38719e60fa4ddf24f6ccbe5749d060e8.png

Edited by faraway saint
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1 hour ago, bazil85 said:

 

Below is something a little more up to date and more accurate. As you can see new cases in the UK (with far more testing than anytime previously) has been roughly the same level since 1st April with only 2 or 3 days of spikes. In Sweden, they've just had their third biggest day on record of new cases with only 1 day in the last seven lower than 1st of April. This is despite my earlier point of Sweden being a much less densely populated country. It also has far more one dweller homes than the UK which is considered a major factor in their approach. 

 

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Those are daily cases graphs.

He posted daily deaths graphs.

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32 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Lockdown to overwhelm NHS with cancer patients

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52393073

What's needed here is education, the advice is to go and find out. If people aren't doing that, that's what needs to be addressed. Not lifting a lockdown in a time where deaths are far higher than expected for this time of the year with the majority in some way linked to the virus. 

As for your other point, you've been shown several times why Sweden is not a good comparison. The story linked is unbelievably bias as well, we know the death rate isn't that low given we are literally seeing far more deaths in practically every country that has it, linked to Covid19. You admitted you were wrong on this point not long ago, what's made you backtrack? 

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2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Is there a reason you missed off the last 7 days of data in that graph?

ET. There are more problems than that. You've put in false numbers for Sweden's daily deaths which have routinely gone above 100 per day in that time period and are now almost double that.

 

Don't you wish you'd missed off the last 7 days of your " graph"? 😂😂😂

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2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Is there a reason you missed off the last 7 days of data in that graph?

ET. There are more problems than that. You've put in false numbers for Sweden's daily deaths which have routinely gone above 100 per day in that time period and are now almost double that.

 

I haven’t missed off anything. It’s not my graph.

I take you know about trend lines?

Sweden’s daily deaths drop off every weekend and catch up at the start of the week. But I’ll let you into a secret. The deaths aren’t actually dropping off at the weekends. It’s just a reporting issue in Sweden.

Oh dear, you’ve put your foot in it again oaksoft.

If you need me to help you with anything else then just let me know. I appreciate you’re struggling with all this. 👍

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In The Times today.
 

Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said that the impact of the lockdown was “going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus”.

The pandemic has peaked and draconian measures are now unnecessary, a leading scientist claimed yesterday

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-peak-is-past-and-now-lockdown-worse-than-virus-expert-insists-sq6dd0jdx

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1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Those are daily cases graphs.

He posted daily deaths graphs.

I know he did, hence why I said a wee bit more relevant (IMO anyway). The death graphs can be a bit off the pace with reporting. Daily case graphs are by no means conclusive but I feel it shows contrast to his view regarding Sweden a lot clearer. 

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57 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

In The Times today.
 

Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said that the impact of the lockdown was “going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus”.

The pandemic has peaked and draconian measures are now unnecessary, a leading scientist claimed yesterday

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-peak-is-past-and-now-lockdown-worse-than-virus-expert-insists-sq6dd0jdx

Again, the nature if this sort of thing, you'll always be able to find contrasting views, it sells content and hence why media outlets report in the way they do. Notice that with the Times you need to subscribe to see the full content if you've looked at a certain number of their stories. It doesn't mean this man is right. 

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11 minutes ago, Yflab said:

I don’t need any excuse to have a spliff.......just need to increase the tobacco. 🤪

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

Many plants produce alkaloids, like nicotine, in order to kill insects that graze on them.

There have been some studies indicating that nicotine does inhibit both bacterial and fungal growth.

It's not a huge stretch to suggest that it could have anti-viral effects.

Although taking up smoking to achieve the desired ant-viral effect might just be counter productive in the long term.:rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, FTOF said:

Many plants produce alkaloids, like nicotine, in order to kill insects that graze on them.

There have been some studies indicating that nicotine does inhibit both bacterial and fungal growth.

It's not a huge stretch to suggest that it could have anti-viral effects.

Although taking up smoking to achieve the desired ant-viral effect might just be counter productive in the long term.:rolleyes:

What if I just buy a pack of 10? :lol:

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