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@bazil85


https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090.pdf

Analysis from the University of Edinburgh that the decline in infections in England & Wales began days before lockdown.

The report concludes 

“What the results show is that, in the absence of strong assumptions, the currently most reliable data strongly suggest that the decline in infections in England and Wales began before lockdown.

The report goes on to say

“ a plausible estimate of
the life loss burden from an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic in the UK is about 2 weeks per person .
A plausible lower bound on the UK life loss from the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath is 7 weeks 
per person . The economic shock from lockdown is substantially larger than 2008. Similarly the implied willingness to pay to save a life year from COVID-19 appears to be an order of magnitude higher than the usual UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence threshold used for other diseases. Delayed health interventions for serious conditions represent a further life loss burden.”

Graph below shows calculated infections with the red line highlighting start of lockdown.

 

53DE3AEF-7F3B-4ACB-B12A-2550F304375A.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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It peaks in the winter but still at a low level in the summer. That’s what makes it seasonal.
 
When that article talks about 3 times as many flu deaths as Covid, you need to remember that there are now very few Covid deaths in the U.K. (ignore the discredited PHE figures). 
 
Around 8-9k thousand people die a week in the summer with deaths hitting around 14k a week at the peak in Dec / Jan. Flu is thought to be the main driver of those excess deaths. 
 
Why aren’t we testing for flu now? It’s killing more people than Covid just now and will kill more this winter.
If it’s really about saving lives then why aren’t we switching our attention to flu?


I don’t think Flu has the same fear factor.
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2 hours ago, Russian Saint said:

 


I don’t think Flu has the same fear factor.

 

Indeed.

Thousands of people die of the flu every year and no-one blinks an eye.

If lockdown occurred well after the peak of infections and we assume has made no difference (and the example of Sweden confirms that), then by comparing with previous flu seasons we can see that the current “pandemic” is no different to a bad flu season.

Graph below compares to the flu season of 99/00. Now, despite the thousands of collateral deaths caused by the lockdown, along with Covid deaths AND the flu deaths this winter, all cause mortality in 19/20 is still less than the flu season of 99/00.

Does anyone remember the flu season of 99/00? Does anyone even know it happened?

 

ED3E4914-14E4-4B3B-B93B-C5FD2A4C9526.jpeg

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Despite going into lockdown on the same day as the U.K., Mexico is still in the middle of the pandemic.

Coronavirus: Mexico's death toll becomes world's third highest https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53618808
 

It’s as if lockdown was irrelevant and the trajectory of the virus followed seasonality, eh @bazil85?

It’s as if the graph below follows the graphs produced by Edgar Hope-Simpson decades ago.....

 

AC2DD81C-7E06-4FE4-8698-75E020A6A483.jpeg

E62256E7-BA46-4E64-B035-C3365DB480E8.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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Indeed.
Thousands of people die of the flu every year and no-one blinks an eye.
If lockdown occurred well after the peak of infections and we assume has made no difference (and the example of Sweden confirms that), then by comparing with previous flu seasons we can see that the current “pandemic” is no different to a bad flu season.
Graph below compares to the flu season of 99/00. Now, despite the thousands of collateral deaths caused by the lockdown, along with Covid deaths AND the flu deaths this winter, all cause mortality in 19/20 is still less than the flu season of 99/00.
Does anyone remember the flu season of 99/00? Does anyone even know it happened?
 
ED3E4914-14E4-4B3B-B93B-C5FD2A4C9526.jpeg.b6916a3b029edeee1c10aec5a3ca011a.jpeg



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Why are so many from the medical fraternity being silenced?
Is it that they’re questioning that the virus was allegedly man made?

Is it that they’re questioning the treatment? (Ventilators)

Is it that they’re questioning alternative medication without the need for the vaccine?

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3 minutes ago, theknickerwetter said:

If the person you regard as a fruit cake , Donald J. trump the 46th President of the United States has dismantled ISIS , wrong.   The same mix of disaffected warmongers still exits.  Names may change... 

ended a war that was going for over 60 years a war that no other US president was able to end ,which war is that you've imagined?

 effectlvly neutralised the nuclear threat from the Marxist f**k wit in N.Korea , No he hasn't!

boomed the economy of the US twice , and the US economy is now in a worse state than it has EVER been

 cleaned out the corruption in the Fed'  fruitcake!  There has been no clearing out

and effectively achieved more in 3.5 years than Bush , Clinton , Bush and Barry achieved in 32years , what does that make you ?

your post makes you a fruitcake lover and thus a fruitcake apologist.

 

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3 minutes ago, theknickerwetter said:

yeah Marxist fruitcakery , cuts right against your strong Marxist beliefs ,  they have been a bunch of genocidal maniacs from the get go with Mao being the worst of course and the genocide still goes on and if you can't see that then you are the cake of fruit ( and l do understand that you are very , very likely to remain so ).

The Marxism that you so believe in simply means death and tyranny to huge swathes of people

 

Everyday-Fruit-Cake-s.jpg

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The American economy (like just about every other country) took a severe nosedive with the whole COVID thing........ hardly Trump’s fault.

I’m assuming it was the Afghan war that was being referred to (but I stand corrected) It’s not quite over but Trump has pulled the majority of US troops out of there.

North Korean. He may not have taken the nuclear threat away, but Trump surely has to be commended for going over to NK and having face to face talks.

The Democrats have tried everything to get rid of Trump and this current situation across various states (all Democrat run) is probably their last role of the dice.
Had it been anyone else sitting in the chair and had accomplished what Trump has done........ would there be the same outcry?
I do cringe at times at some of Trump’s statements, but i agree with a lot of his policies.
The Democrats are a disgrace the way they’ve behaved since even before Trump was elected.
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No lockdown in Sweden and despite Covid, mortality looks not much different from any other year.

And this is what we wrecked the economy for, put millions of the working class out of work, shut the NHS and killed 000s of care home residents. 

All the while @TPAFKATS and @bazil85 are virtue signalling on full pay at the expense of others. 

53EC0D97-1460-4288-8F09-9B05739F16CD.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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15 hours ago, Russian Saint said:

 


The American economy (like just about every other country) took a severe nosedive with the whole COVID thing........ hardly Trump’s fault.

 

All economies are taking a hit, Yes.   But none harder than the USA. As leader of the USA he said CV19 was nothing, it'll be over in a few weeks with 20 or so deaths. There is now nearly 160, 000 dead Americans.. 

He knows it is not his best re-election facet so he tries not to talk about it. NOT TALK ABOUT 160,000 US fatalities! He is not being a leader. Even our Buffoon understands the severity of this and takes it seriously, not suggesting we drink beach or have lights shone inside us to fix it!

If your leader refuses to behave like a leader whose 'fault is it that things are f**ked up?

He can't possibly, seriously excused from this! 


I’m assuming it was the Afghan war that was being referred to (but I stand corrected) It’s not quite over but Trump has pulled the majority of US troops out of there.

The US has not been in Afghanistan for 60 years.

North Korean. He may not have taken the nuclear threat away, but Trump surely has to be commended for going over to NK and having face to face talks.

He surely hasn't taken the nuclear threat away.  Nothing has changed except allowed his fellow fruitcake Kin get publicity he craved, to big himself up in his slave country.

The Democrats have tried everything to get rid of Trump and this current situation across various states (all Democrat run) is probably their last role of the dice.

Interesting that you are blaming the Democrat party for centuries of US slavery and persecution and not the man who said there was some bad people n both sides after KKK people killed protestors


Had it been anyone else sitting in the chair and had accomplished what Trump has done........ would there be the same outcry?

 

He has accomplished SFA.  I also had hoped that his promise of getting US out of the ME would be fulfilled.  I don't think opening an embassy in Jerusalem and allowing further Zionist occupation of the West Bank will do anything other than protract and probably escalate the war there.


I do cringe at times at some of Trump’s statements, but i agree with a lot of his policies.

He makes me cringe constantly. I can't think of any policy of his that I like.  I hate how he has cut thousands of governmental jobs that supported the poorest people in his nation, whilst increasing tax breaks for the rich..   Luckily he has accomplished little.   He hasn't built the Wall that he promised.  He hasn't rolled back Obamacare as he promised. He... I won't go on....  And on, though it would be so easy...


The Democrats are a disgrace the way they’ve behaved since even before Trump was elected.

We can agree on this one. The Democrats have been shocking. 

 

Whatever made them think they should behave like an opposition!??!

Edited by antrin
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On 7/31/2020 at 7:33 PM, Sue Denim said:

Yes, I know it’s taken hold in multiple different climates,....but always in the winter!

Seasonality and the mechanisms of transmission are unknown and no doubt highly complex. 

And of course there are other factors. Why hasn’t it taken hold in the Pacific rim for example?

I’m the one looking at the big picture. You’re the one who has closed his mind to all else but lockdown, lockdown, lockdown.

If the mechanism of  transmission is not truly known then how can you possibly know how to stop it?

I think it’s unlikely but what if the main mechanism of transmission is the fecal / oral route like some other viruses?

How would mask wearing and social distancing help then?

There are a multitude of unknown factors and you’ve closed your mind to them all.

Its plainly obvious that lockdown has caused thousands of collateral deaths. It would need to have saved many more lives for there to have been any benefit. IMO, I doubt many if any lives were saved by it. It only increased the death toll IMO.

 

That would only be relevant if everyone's winter conditions were consistent. I have already addressed this easily and shown where you are either wrong or making assumptions based on not having the information. You basically confirm this in admitting the "unknown" natures of this virus. 

You made an assumption lockdown was wrong from day one, that was impossible to know and has been shown (so far) to be wrong. 

Again it comes back to risks, I am not comfortable with taking risks on human life, one thing we do know is conatact = more transmission, that supports a lockdown. 

Again unknowns, I wouldn't be gambling with human life which you clearly wanted to do as the economy is more important to you.

You've shared stats multiple times showing there is no evidence for your last point. 

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18 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

No lockdown in Sweden and despite Covid, mortality looks not much different from any other year.

And this is what we wrecked the economy for, put millions of the working class out of work, shut the NHS and killed 000s of care home residents. 

All the while @TPAFKATS and @bazil85 are virtue signalling on full pay at the expense of others. 

53EC0D97-1460-4288-8F09-9B05739F16CD.jpeg

Cherry picking, already addressed. 

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