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Carnage at the supermarkets. Almost no fresh meat in Asda or Sainsburys and Aldi is also pretty much out.

Interesting to see what people buy when they panic. Bread gone again and suddenly we've become a nation of bread makers because there's no fecking flour anywhere either. Almost out of beans and spaghetti too. Loads of idiots taking photos of empty toilet roll shelves for some reason. If chicken nuggets are your thing, you'll be fine as there was a pile of those.

That's the weeks shopping done thank goodness. Can't wait to see what it will be like next week. Maybe all those deliveries Faraway assured us were just a moment away will finally start arriving en masse.

Edited by oaksoft

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3 hours ago, eastlandssaint said:

On a serious note, those researchers better be pretty f**king sure they've got their model working properly this time because if they f**k it up once more nobody will ever trust them again. I haven't read their paper yet but I sincerely hope they are able to provide a convincing argument as to why their model is now correct given the damage to the economy this is causing. I also hope they have detailed the approximations they have made and that someone hasn't got too excited at getting their 15 minutes of fame and over-stated the accuracy of the results.

I honestly cannot see people in this country following these self isolation procedures for longer than about 2 weeks. After that I think most people would rather die in freedom than live imprisoned in their houses.

Edited by oaksoft

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10 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

On a serious note, those researchers better be pretty f**king sure they've got their model working properly this time because if they f**k it up once more nobody will ever trust them again. I haven't read their paper yet but I sincerely hope they are able to provide a convincing argument as to why their model is now correct given the damage to the economy this is causing. I also hope they have detailed the approximations they have made and that someone hasn't got too excited at getting their 15 minutes of fame and over-stated the accuracy of the results.

I honestly cannot see people in this country following these self isolation procedures for longer than about 2 weeks. After that I think most people would rather die in freedom than live imprisoned in their houses.

Cordon off Arbroath. 

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none of the leaders appear to be too convinced of their own words when it comes to suppression strategy.  My gut feeling is that many countries will try for an extended temporary lockdown either side of easter before significant numbers start venturing out by going to work, shops, etc.  At that point, I think the resolve will weaken.

I think that by May, we wont really have any kind of containment strategy and many people will take a roll of the dice with their own health and that of others

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8.20 this morning Aldi in Ayr was like Christmas Eve. Huge queues with every checkout open and folk struggling with two trolleys. Utterly staggering stuff. Whatever reassurance govt are making, people are point blank ignoring them.

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17 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:

8.20 this morning Aldi in Ayr was like Christmas Eve. Huge queues with every checkout open and folk struggling with two trolleys. Utterly staggering stuff. Whatever reassurance govt are making, people are point blank ignoring them.

That's exactly the same description the staff at Morrisons said to my wife a few days ago.

I'm going down tonight, pray for me. 

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23 minutes ago, cockles1987 said:

We will. Please god, you know what we're wanting. emoji6.png

I'm back......................a disaster if you can't get to the shops early, devastation.

Assured the vast majority will be restocked by tomorrow morning but the staff see this happening every day for the foreseeable. 

The bevvy is still at reasonable levels, that will change, already 2 pubs up here announced they are closing for the next 2 weeks, to be reviewed.

Utter madness. 

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Guest TPAFKATS
Not that strange, it would appear everyone wants someone else to take responsibility for them, ie: if Boris asks people to behave sensibly and not continue with a particular habit (pubs, clubs etc) he is letting certain sections of the community down because they can't claim insurance.................'bad boris!   If on the other hand he does what he is advised to; by medical / scientific 'experts' (relating to slowing the spread of the virus down) then he is still wrong........................and he may well be and I am no expert nor indeed are the vast majority of this forum, however! one can only do as one is advised, far to many experts on here and that IS a surprise as it makes me wonder how so many of them manage to work out how to use toilet rolls .............................since they don't come with instructions?
If it was an instruction from government many businesses state that they would have been able to claim on their insurance.
Instead it was a request, so business can't claim.

We have an economy that is heavily reliant on the service industry. Yesterday without warning, the rug was pulled from under that industry along with all employed within it. Many of these employees are on zero hours contracts.

Some mitigation announced today, however as always the devil will be in the detail. So far, still nowhere near what France is doing for its citizens.

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Guest TPAFKATS
If anyone's curious, this is the report that the government are basing their current strategy on
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR31LtQc8XvkLt6flWIThq0nBRU02HeUktJLBZUcEo5_AiYjHNZzFjGiXsI

Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

(Download Report 9)

Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri,  Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti,  Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker, Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.

 On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London

1Correspondence: [email protected]

Summary Report 9
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (B) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.

 
Is this the imperial college report based on a mathematical projection that the authors realised was going to result in many more deaths than they first thought?

Despite multiple medical sources pointing it out at the time.

We moved away from WHO and other countries ways of dealing with this based on flawed info.

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‘Inside knowledge’

 

England ready to mobilise military as early as next week.

 

Health staff/Utilities/Carers etc allowed movement - restrictions on everyone else

 

Already

 

Leisure centres closed / Cinemas / Mcdonalds now drive - thru only in places ( shopping centres on lock down & announcement on school closures shortly

 

Currently year 8/9 most schools sent home 2nd/3rd year effectively & schools struggling to get through this week

 

One Academy had 350 kids off yesterday

 

Wonder if we will follow up here as soon ?

 

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21 hours ago, oaksoft said:

After that I think most people would rather die in freedom than live imprisoned in their houses.

Cerainly in your house 😃

16 minutes ago, Dickson said:

I doubt we'll ever find out what strategy would have been best. I'm not comfortable with seeing attempts at gaining political capital out of this though. All party leaders have attended the Cobra meetings and all signed up to the advised strategy. 

Everyone of us has had details of what other countries were doing and we all had the ability to take our own action regardless of government policy. For example I didn't need expert advice to know I was taking a risk going to the Hearts game last week, no matter how small. The government didn't force me to go to watch it. It seems extremely counter intuitive when I see people who in December were call Boris a buffoon and a fool are now claiming that they  were waiting for his advice before taking part in large social gatherings. 

The reason I posted the article is because its an authoritative piece of information from an official source and not some silly click bait grabbed off Facebook. 

I still travel to work daily. I do so because I am the only person in my car and I work in a large space that is only occupied by me. Even so I still clean everything around me. 

But we did see a breaking of the ranks in advice given, I think it's fair to say the UK policy has been nudged at the very least by SG announcements. 

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1 hour ago, Fricky_Bellend said:

‘Inside knowledge’

 

England ready to mobilise military as early as next week.

 

Health staff/Utilities/Carers etc allowed movement - restrictions on everyone else

 

Already

 

Leisure centres closed / Cinemas / Mcdonalds now drive - thru only in places ( shopping centres on lock down & announcement on school closures shortly

 

Currently year 8/9 most schools sent home 2nd/3rd year effectively & schools struggling to get through this week

 

One Academy had 350 kids off yesterday

 

Wonder if we will follow up here as soon ?

 

I would imagine that the UK on the whole doesn't have enough police or military personnel to enforce mass restrictions on people moving around.

I'm also not sure that citizens will support any military presence on our streets.

Edited by oaksoft

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Guest TPAFKATS



I doubt we'll ever find out what strategy would have been best. I'm not comfortable with seeing attempts at gaining political capital out of this though. All party leaders have attended the Cobra meetings and all signed up to the advised strategy. 
Everyone of us has had details of what other countries were doing and we all had the ability to take our own action regardless of government policy. For example I didn't need expert advice to know I was taking a risk going to the Hearts game last week, no matter how small. The government didn't force me to go to watch it. It seems extremely counter intuative when I see people who in December were call Boris a buffoon and a fool are now claiming that they  were waiting for his advice before taking part in large social gatherings. 
The reason I posted the article is because its an autharative piece of information from an official source and not some silly click bait grabbed off Facebook. 
I still travel to work daily. I do so because I am the only person in my car and I work in a large space that is only occupied by me. Even so I still clean everything around me. 


Who is trying to gain political capital from this?
All parties leaders may(?) attend cobra meeting but decisions are still made by the government that is in power.
Johnson is a buffoon, however it shouldn't be expecting too much to be able to trust government and the chief medics around them with something like this. Unfortunately by the time it became clear that we were listening to scientists with computer mappings and flawed data instead of the medical professionals, it was too late.

The UK is so far behind on this it is negligent.

Did you go to the hearts game last week?

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Guest TPAFKATS
Negligent? Would you rather we were in the lead? More cases and more deaths? According to the news we appear to be around 10 days behind Italy. If the story is to believed that this was caused by a man eating a bat, he didn't do it on different days in different countries. It might be by luck, or design that we are behind Italy and many other countries in Europe on this - the fact is we'll never know - but all of the people in the UK have had the power to make their own choices since the news of this virus broke. 
Yes I was at the St Mirren v Hearts game last week. Incredibly it seems I have survived it. 
This is utter nonsense Stuart.

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5 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

 
Is this the imperial college report based on a mathematical projection that the authors realised was going to result in many more deaths than they first thought?

Despite multiple medical sources pointing it out at the time.

We moved away from WHO and other countries ways of dealing with this based on flawed info.

I prefer to think that it is Science acting as it should do.  It looked at the stats and came up with what was - at the time - deemed to be the best way forward.

The facts changed and - beautifully - the science was adjusted to meet the new challenge.

Unfortunately, by moving from the first plan there is a downside.  The new plan supresses the virus  as long as people remain inlock-down.     The upside is that if we can stay in lockdown for months - till an antidote is produced - then lives will certainly be saved.  Downside is - it accepts that there is likely to be a second wave of infection - and that if lockdown is not maintained for many months that could result in very poor mortality figures.

1 hour ago, TPAFKATS said:

The UK is so far behind on this it is negligent.

 

No.

The virus is hitting different parts Of the world in differing ways.

As far as I understand it, the reason Northern Italy has been hit to badly and so hard  and so much earlier than UK is because many failing leather factories in that area had been sold to Chinese investors.  Thousands of Chinese - from a place called Wuhan - moved to Milan and nearby to work in those factories, so sadly the virus got a head start in Northern Italy.

Central London is our hotspot - mainly due, I would think, to tourists from all over visiting and staying and eating and socialising in that part of UK.

Edited by antrin

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Guest TPAFKATS

 

 

 

No.

The virus is hitting different parts Of the world in differing ways.

As far as I understand it, the reason Northern Italy has been hit to badly and so hard  and so much earlier than UK is because many failing leather factories in that area had been sold to Chinese investors.  Thousands of Chinese - from a place called Wuhan - moved to Milan and nearby to work in those factories, so sadly the virus got a head start in Northern Italy.

Central London is our hotspot - mainly due, I would think, to tourists from all over visiting and staying and eating and socialising in that part of UK.

 

I believe our gov took that approach because that was the science that suited.

 

If you don't test, the stats are meaningless apart from the deaths, however they are 4 or 5 weeks behind based on average length of time folk are taking to die from this.

I agree on Northern Italy having a lot of Chinese coming and going, however so does UK especially at the time of Chinese New Year. However we didn't stop anyone coming back from China in the early days of this.

 

The UK approach is different to everywhere else. That's not because its hitting us differently, it's because we are choosing to believe that we are uniquely different to the rest of the northern hemisphere.

 

We've done nothing for 6 or 8 weeks when we shouldve been restricting travel and now it's panic mode.

 

The US seems to be ahead of us on this, particularly when it comes to helping folk financial - that's worrying.

 

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