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faraway saint

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7 hours ago, bazil85 said:

Well if you're going to make a habit out of posting nonsense about me, I guess that is true in a sense regarding our engagements.

 THERE’S NOTHING ELSE AVAILABLE TO POST ABOUT YOU

Many on here do speak sense though. 

HOW CAN YOU DISCERN....?

 

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Lanarkshire apparently the latest area that might reintroduce restrictions. They currently have 21 out of 100,000 infected, more than east ren who do have restrictions.

I think the problem with current government policy is the very low numbers they are willing to tolerate. 20 out of 100,000 seems to be the magic number, or 1 in 5000 people. With a fatality rate of around 1% currently, that means 1 in 500,000 people will die. Massive overreaction.

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13 hours ago, Yflab said:

Says the guy who hoards toilet rolls and can’t draw a graph.....this sums you up.

1E296815-26C4-4F58-9F90-0EBC4989FF42.png.b51c44d6b47bb38729b2ce709f5fae9d.png

See that look of anguish on my face there?

That's me in utter despair trying to get you utter fannies to understand what I've graphed and realising it would be easier to teach a cow linear algebra.

I've lost some weight since that photo BTW. :D

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629

Looks like the tests could be recording a lot of false positives which might explain why the death rates are virtually zero.

This isn't surprising given the speed these tests were developed at but I have to say that I never bought into reports of false positive rates of 1%. I'd have expected somewhere around 25% false positives for something which was rushed (necessarily) like this. If it's picking up long dead virus traces the false positive rate could be much higher than that.

On the positive side, the government are aware of it and proper scientists (not statisticians) are trying to fix it.

Edited by oaksoft
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1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

See that look of anguish on my face there?

That's me in utter despair trying to get you utter fannies to understand what I've graphed and realising it would be easier to teach a cow linear algebra.

I've lost some weight since that photo BTW. :D

Talking of which.

A guy was driving down a country lane when he was stopped by a farmer trying to get his cattle into a field. After an hour the farmer appeared to be having no joy. The man stepped out a=of his car and asked the farmer if he could help.

"I've been farming cattle for 40 years. I know how to get my herd into a field".

"Sorry. You look as if you're struggling"".

The farmer raised his arms and said, "OK. You try then. See how you get on".

The man goes back to his car, takes a guitar from the back seat and proceeds to wave it above the cattle. They form a perfect queue and start toward the field. After they all walk into the field the man shuts the gate and turns to the farmer.

"Wow"!, said the farmer. "In all of my forty years farming I have NEVER seen the likes. Is that a special guitar"?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Nope", said the man. "JUST ACOUSITIC"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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5 hours ago, Long John Baldy said:

Glad the numbers of schoolchildren returning to school in England has been very high, between 91% and 98% I think.

That'll upset the scaremongers. 

 

Universities go back on Monday in Scotland.

Prepare for more dire warnings of plague infestations.

BTW, September is known as flu month at universities because once these filthy bastard students start living together, shagging everything with a pulse and pouring alcohol into their eyes (not joking abut that last one), illness sweeps the campus for a few weeks until they all settle down and re-acquaint themselves with bars of soap. This next 3 months is going to be fun.

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Guest TPAFKATS
Lanarkshire apparently the latest area that might reintroduce restrictions. They currently have 21 out of 100,000 infected, more than east ren who do have restrictions.
I think the problem with current government policy is the very low numbers they are willing to tolerate. 20 out of 100,000 seems to be the magic number, or 1 in 5000 people. With a fatality rate of around 1% currently, that means 1 in 500,000 people will die. Massive overreaction.
Have a look at how it spread in Israel recently from really low number of cases to over 1000 in a really short space of time.
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If you've done the research great, it didn't appear that way at all from the way you presented the questions. Anyone can have any view they want, it doesn't mean it's beyond challenge (both ways) 
I agree with both facts, I don't think it's the full story or the risk is low enough to get back to normal (far from it) 
I don't think anyone is claiming second wave in this country is absolute fact to happen.
As for your comments on flu season being branded Covid part 2, that seems completely unfounded, counterproductive for any government to push a flu season as covid and extremely unlikely that would be the conclusion the experts would arrive at and advise the government.  
I think it's clear there is a lot of apathy from some regarding the approach taken by governments globally, that's fine. My view has been, remains and will continue to be a cautious one when it comes to protecting human life. [emoji106]


My comment regarding Covid part 2 was a bit of sarcasm. Let’s be honest, the way governments deal with the situation at times is laughable (including our own) As far as apathy by individual countries, it’s not a one size fits all. Some countries seemed to fair better than others with lesser restrictions.
I’m in no way knocking you for your views and approach on this, you have to do what you believe is best for you and your family.
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19 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Universities go back on Monday in Scotland.

Prepare for more dire warnings of plague infestations.

BTW, September is known as flu month at universities because once these filthy bastard students start living together, shagging everything with a pulse and pouring alcohol into their eyes (not joking abut that last one), illness sweeps the campus for a few weeks until they all settle down and re-acquaint themselves with bars of soap. This next 3 months is going to be fun.

Those were the days 

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16 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:
22 hours ago, Hendo said:
Lanarkshire apparently the latest area that might reintroduce restrictions. They currently have 21 out of 100,000 infected, more than east ren who do have restrictions.
I think the problem with current government policy is the very low numbers they are willing to tolerate. 20 out of 100,000 seems to be the magic number, or 1 in 5000 people. With a fatality rate of around 1% currently, that means 1 in 500,000 people will die. Massive overreaction.

Have a look at how it spread in Israel recently from really low number of cases to over 1000 in a really short space of time.

And despite that, in Israel yesterday there were only 14 deaths from Covid.

My point is about proportionality. Around 460 people in the UK on average die of heart disease each day, yet people still lead unhealthy lifestyles that put them more at risk of this, and the government doesn't ban unhealthy food or cigarettes, or make daily exercise compulsory.

Around 5 people a day die in car accidents in the UK, but car travel is not restricted.

However, because of Covid, with deaths being generally in single figures each day in the UK, we have Draconian restrictions in place and lockdown rules that quite simply dont make any sense.

My point is the government response on both sides of the border is not currently proportionate to the level of threat.

Edited by Hendo
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Guest TPAFKATS
And despite that, in Israel yesterday there were only 14 deaths from Covid.

My point is about proportionality. Around 460 people in the UK on average die of heart disease each day, yet people still lead unhealthy lifestyles that put them more at risk of this, and the government doesn't ban unhealthy food or cigarettes, or make daily exercise compulsory.

Around 5 people a day die in car accidents in the UK, but car travel is not restricted.

However, because of Covid, with deaths being generally in single figures each day in the UK, we have Draconian restrictions in place and lockdown rules that quite simply dont make any sense.

My point is the government response on both sides of the border is not currently proportionate to the level of threat.

You are comparing different things.

Heart disease isn't passed randomly from person to person through touch and air droplets.

You think the restrictions are draconian. The public health experts dont.

 

I'm happy to put my faith in them as opposed to you. I might change my mind, but I really hope not, as that would mean the folk we are relying on to get us through this we're wrong.

 

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24 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

You are comparing different things.

Heart disease isn't passed randomly from person to person through touch and air droplets.

You think the restrictions are draconian. The public health experts dont.

 

I'm happy to put my faith in them as opposed to you. I might change my mind, but I really hope not, as that would mean the folk we are relying on to get us through this we're wrong.

 

Ok, perhaps the better comparison is with the flu, which can also be transmitted from person to person. In December 2019, pre Covid, 4.31 out of every 100,000 in Scotland were in hospital with flu - 216 people if you assume Scotland has a population of 5 million. Yesterday, the number of Covid patients in hospital was only marginally more at 256.

Now, I know what your response will be - it is only the government's cautious strategy that has restricted numbers to this level. However, what we are seeing is a rise in numbers of people contracting Covid, but no rise in people becoming seriously ill or dying from it. Yesterday, again there were no deaths in Scotland. This is down to two reasons. Firstly, it tends to be younger, less at risk people contracting it, rather than in the early days when it was rampaging through care homes. Secondly, treatments are evolving and getting more sophisticated, even in the absence of a vaccine.

The fact is Covid isn't as bad as was initially feared, and the government response should shift with this new awareness, but sadly it has not.

 

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And despite that, in Israel yesterday there were only 14 deaths from Covid.
My point is about proportionality. Around 460 people in the UK on average die of heart disease each day, yet people still lead unhealthy lifestyles that put them more at risk of this, and the government doesn't ban unhealthy food or cigarettes, or make daily exercise compulsory.
Around 5 people a day die in car accidents in the UK, but car travel is not restricted.
However, because of Covid, with deaths being generally in single figures each day in the UK, we have Draconian restrictions in place and lockdown rules that quite simply dont make any sense.
My point is the government response on both sides of the border is not currently proportionate to the level of threat.


Is the low death rate you talk about the result of the restrictions or in spite of them? We will probably never know the answer to that and that is the very reason that a low death rate can't automatically be used as reasoning to get back to "normal".
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Ok, perhaps the better comparison is with the flu, which can also be transmitted from person to person. In December 2019, pre Covid, 4.31 out of every 100,000 in Scotland were in hospital with flu - 216 people if you assume Scotland has a population of 5 million. Yesterday, the number of Covid patients in hospital was only marginally more at 256.
Now, I know what your response will be - it is only the government's cautious strategy that has restricted numbers to this level. However, what we are seeing is a rise in numbers of people contracting Covid, but no rise in people becoming seriously ill or dying from it. Yesterday, again there were no deaths in Scotland. This is down to two reasons. Firstly, it tends to be younger, less at risk people contracting it, rather than in the early days when it was rampaging through care homes. Secondly, treatments are evolving and getting more sophisticated, even in the absence of a vaccine.
The fact is Covid isn't as bad as was initially feared, and the government response should shift with this new awareness, but sadly it has not.
 


But those young people will be more likely to pass it on to other "non-young" people if restrictions are lifted. Go out partying among hundreds of strangers on a Saturday then go see your auld granny on the Sunday.
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Interestingly, the Scottish governments own data report into Covid categorised very low rates of Covid as being fewer than 55 people in 100,000 infected.

East Renfrewshire has had restrictions imposed with 19 out of 100,000 infected.

What is going on and why are the media not scrutinising the government more closely?

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1 hour ago, Slarti said:


 

 


Is the low death rate you talk about the result of the restrictions or in spite of them? We will probably never know the answer to that and that is the very reason that a low death rate can't automatically be used as reasoning to get back to "normal".

 

Well cases are going back up but deaths are not.

Why is that? Part of it has to be to do with the fact that so few people have this that the NHS can better care for those who have it. Part of it has to do with old people still shielding with younger people bearing the brunt but those younger people are pretty much all asymptomatic. Part of it is almost certainly to do with the fact that the tests are known to be recording far more false positives than originally thought. I think it's reasonable to say that the low numbers of deaths has nothing to do with lockdown because of simultaneously rising cases. I can't see any argument for saying that it is TBH.

The government response to this is completely out of perspective to the threat.

I see there were protests in Edinburgh over the last day or two against lockdown. I'm surprised it took that long. Disappointing to see that legitimate protests have been polluted by so many mentally disturbed f**kwit anti-vaxxers wittering on about government control, sheeple, Bill Gates, 5G etc. Professor Leitch is confused about why people are protesting but he's focussing on the comments of the nutters. The fact of the matter is that a growing number of people can see that none of the experts really knows what they are doing. The ludicrous mask wearing fiasco was the breaking point for many. We should have used the opportunity to let this virus spread and burn itself out during the summer when it was clear that almost nobody is now dying from it. Instead we're going to be facing restrictions for the forseeable future. And in the meantime, unnecessary deaths from cancer, heart attacks and diabetes continue to increase well beyond what would normally be expected.

This is what being overcautious does and why those types of people (the Bazil's and TPAK thingies if you will) should never be in charge of important things.

 

Edited by oaksoft
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2 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

 

The public health experts dont.

 

You see, this is the bit you are missing.

I hate to break this to you but there are no covid-19 experts anywhere in the world.

There can't be. It's a new virus.

There is not a single scientist or health expert who has fully figured out what this thing is and how to control it. Nobody has even figured out how to properly test for it as reports showed a day or two back. The scientific community are split on how to deal with it.

There is no government in the world which has figured out how to defeat this. Not a single government. Not even New Zealand.

You need to understand that what is happening is that our scientific and political leaders are trying their best to deal with this under the condition of incomplete knowledge. They will routinely make mistakes and we need to be questioning them when they do - for example, the lockdown seemed reasonable (even though countless scientists believe it was a mistake) but the mask thing is patently ridiculous to anyone with a modicum of intelligence. Why are under 12s exempt? Why is it OK for school kids to wear no masks in an enclosed classroom or in dinner halls but they must wear them on busses and in corridors between classes? Why is it OK to wear no mask in pubs and restaurants where people are sharing cutlery and glasses which have been used by another person but mandatory to wear one when you go to buy a loaf of bread? Why are the government justifying this by quoting peer-reviewed science which talks about properly fitted N95 standard masks when at the same time they are telling people that this science says it's OK to pull a jumper or a scarf over their faces? And why on earth are people like you not even prepared to question this?

 

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I've been trying my best to put my trust in the government and NHS, but there's a load of stories you hear that raise eyebrows.

A local lads 92 year old grandfather (family of buddies) recently got sent to the RAH for a fracture after a falling during the night. He also suffers from respiratory problems. Upon arrival at the hospital, the nurses insisted that he might have covid as he has some of the symptoms -  however, he was tested and came up negative. Despite this negative test, he was moved to the red covid ward. His family got in touch with the hospital but they are not allowed to see him for at least 2 weeks, due to the fact he is in that ward. He is to be tested again in 4 days time to make sure he is still negative.

Not sure if it's just incompetence, a lack of available beds, or something more sinister - but the way this man has been treated is wrong and is putting him at severe risk. All he went in for was a fracture

 

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Guest TPAFKATS
You see, this is the bit you are missing.
I hate to break this to you but there are no covid-19 experts anywhere in the world.
There can't be. It's a new virus.
There is not a single scientist or health expert who has fully figured out what this thing is and how to control it. Nobody has even figured out how to properly test for it as reports showed a day or two back. The scientific community are split on how to deal with it.
There is no government in the world which has figured out how to defeat this. Not a single government. Not even New Zealand.
You need to understand that what is happening is that our scientific and political leaders are trying their best to deal with this under the condition of incomplete knowledge. They will routinely make mistakes and we need to be questioning them when they do - for example, the lockdown seemed reasonable (even though countless scientists believe it was a mistake) but the mask thing is patently ridiculous to anyone with a modicum of intelligence. Why are under 12s exempt? Why is it OK for school kids to wear no masks in an enclosed classroom or in dinner halls but they must wear them on busses and in corridors between classes? Why is it OK to wear no mask in pubs and restaurants where people are sharing cutlery and glasses which have been used by another person but mandatory to wear one when you go to buy a loaf of bread? Why are the government justifying this by quoting peer-reviewed science which talks about properly fitted N95 standard masks when at the same time they are telling people that this science says it's OK to pull a jumper or a scarf over their faces? And why on earth are people like you not even prepared to question this?
 
If you bothered to read, or understand my posts you would see I have said I do question things.

However as I have repeatedly stated, when it comes to dealing with this pandemic I will take the advice of the vast majority of public health and epidemiology experts as opposed to fannies on a football forum.

How is the Edinburgh protest going?
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22 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

If you bothered to read, or understand my posts you would see I have said I do question things.

However as I have repeatedly stated, when it comes to dealing with this pandemic I will take the advice of the vast majority of public health and epidemiology experts as opposed to fannies on a football forum.

How is the Edinburgh protest going?

I presume is was those experts that advised the government that fewer than 55 infections out of 100,000 was "very low" and required minimal intervention?

I'm assuming, then, that the government ignored this advice when placing restrictions on an area with only 19 infections per 100,000?

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31 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

If you bothered to read, or understand my posts you would see I have said I do question things.

However as I have repeatedly stated, when it comes to dealing with this pandemic I will take the advice of the vast majority of public health and epidemiology experts as opposed to fannies on a football forum.

How is the Edinburgh protest going?

I must have missed your post where you queried whether scarves and jumpers were really effective in controlling covid.

None of us fannies on this football forum is telling you what to believe. We are telling you to demonstrate that you have the capacity to THINK and QUESTION what you are being fed. Your response to that reasonable request is to behave exactly like bazil. As though the forum needs another one of those.

One day you're going to have a conversation with someone where you actually address the points raised.

It's the hope that kills you...

Edited by oaksoft
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Guest TPAFKATS
I must have missed your post where you queried whether scarves and jumpers were really effective in controlling covid.
None of us fannies on this football forum is telling you what to believe. We are telling you to demonstrate that you have the capacity to THINK and QUESTION what you are being fed. Your response to that reasonable request is to behave exactly like bazil. As though the forum needs another one of those.
One day you're going to have a conversation with someone where you actually address the points raised.
It's the hope that kills you...
I've already explained that I do think and question what is an ever changing situation. You acknowledge yourself that the situation is ever changing and it's new to those dealing with it.

If you are expecting me to address every little point you raise in your extremely long winded blustering posts then yes the hope will probably kill you, unless the lack of mask wearing gets you first.
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Things are so polarised that I doubt many are willing to cede. I count myself as one of the few to have decided that the Governments were right initially to shut things down until they got a handle on what they're dealing with but are now wrong to continue the tactics as the initial theory has been found to be exaggerated.

I feel that part of the reason for rising cases without the corresponding increase in deaths is, at least in part, to do with the fact that many of those who succumbed at the start were very susceptible to the virus and there are now fewer.

The crux of the matter is whether there is a belief that a vaccine is likely to be available in the short term. If yes then we could suffer these restrictions meantime. If no then we have to find out how much it is going to impact us. This can only be done by reducing restrictions. Not immediately go into panic mode at the slightest rise in confirmed positive results.

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