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faraway saint

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On 3/21/2020 at 9:30 AM, Hiram Abiff said:

 That’s assuming everyone got the virus

 

There are 50,000 deaths in Scotland every year as it is

 

Articles now beginning to emerge, even on the BBC, questioning the death rate and whether all the deaths are actually attributable just to coronavirus.

 

Latest study from Italy shows that 99.2% of people who died had at least 1 chronic health condition

 

75% had at least 2 chronic health conditions

 

50% had at least 3 chronic health conditions

 

The 3 main health conditions were heart disease, diabetes and cancer.

 

The average age of death was 80

 

The 5 people in the study who died who were aged 30 to 39 all had severe existing illnesses

 

An 80 year old dies and his death is attributed to coronavirus rather than the cancer and the heart condition he had?

 

Governments are wrecking the world economy and taking away civil liberties because they are shit scared of the backlash of coronavirus deaths being laid at their door

 

But few are actually questioning the reality. Few are questioning the long term consequences for the NHS and how many deaths from other causes this lockdown will cause

 

 

 

 

 

This genius was bang on the money before lockdown and has been proven to be correct.....

 

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On 3/22/2020 at 4:45 PM, oaksoft said:

Back to covid and placing this on the right thread, I've re-done my calculations following today's new deaths and new incidents figures and assuming the same trend with no effect from government interventions, the equations predict around 3000 daily deaths and 60,000 daily new cases in the UK by around 5th to 7th April unless something changes dramatically.

That correlates with me saying the UK is about 2 weeks behind Italy.

My equations also closely agree with previous figures going back to the middle of February. R squared figures for the fit to actual data are 96% in all cases.

It's very rough and ready and purely based on fitting exponential curve to the actual data from worldometer but it give a flavour of what we are facing. If anyone wants to pile in with "ah but that's pure fantasy figures maaaaaaaan" nonsense, don't bother.

We are two weeks away from the NHS being totally overwhelmed if my numbers are right.

Turns out they were wrong 😂😜

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On 3/23/2020 at 11:33 AM, TPAFKATS said:

He doesn't have one. He's posting shite on a football forum to get folk to bite.
Despite everything that's going on in the world right now, this is the only thing he can do.
An utterly sad c**t who's had more bans than abercromby.

A very ironic post when you consider that I’ve never been banned while he’s now in the bin 😂

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On 3/24/2020 at 9:12 AM, TPAFKATS said:

Germany were testing 4 or 5 times as many folk per week as UK are /were.

Germany has 25k ventilators with another 10k on order.
UK has 5k ventilators and a twitter appeal from gov ministers for folk to build more.

Germany started the whole social distancing before UK did. Germans also generally appear to be better at following the "rules" on it.

They also have a partly privatised and decentralised health system.....

and the ventilators killed more than they saved.....

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On 3/24/2020 at 5:31 PM, Ayrshire Saints said:

I was setting up laptops for home workers today but had to travel to collect them. I saw guys mono blocking another garden being turfed by a four man squad, an estate agent putting up a sale sign, a hand car wash open and a window cleaner, all in a journey under 30 mins. Plenty folk around the streets of Ayr and still a decent amount of shops open. Unless fully enforced this isn't going to have the desired effect.

Love this classic from Ayrshire, moaning about seeing folk out working whilst he’s out working 😂

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On 3/25/2020 at 6:34 AM, Lord Pityme said:

Epidemiologists suggest for every one death... there are 1000 people infected...
So as of yesterday that 422,000 in the UK infected.
And as the death rate almost doubles on a daily basis now if it's an additional (87 yesterday)190 today we are looking at 612,000 infected.

Aye it's just like the flu this....

1 death for every 1000 infected is indeed the IFR of flu 

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On 3/25/2020 at 8:24 AM, Lord Pityme said:

This comes as Scotland's Chief Medical Officer Dr Catherine Calderwood told the same press conference that around 54,000 people will die from the virus in Scotland.

 

So given the population of England that'll be times ten.

 

 

 

 

 

54,000 will die of the virus in Scotland?......

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3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

No.

You need to see a trend first and that requires around a week of those sorts of figures.

239 deaths is not a very large total anyway in comparison with other expected deaths.

Nearly 500 die of cancer in the UK every single day.

Just shy of 100 a day die of diabetes.

Just shy of 500 die of heart and respiratory problems every day.

But 20 to 50 covid deaths in a day in the UK and the country collectively shits its pants and shuts down?

We are rapidly losing perspective over this,

 

Fair enough will try again tomorrow 

baba sigh GIF by Puffin Rock

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7 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

Herd immunity isn’t a “strategy”. It’s a natural end to an epidemic. Herd immunity has already been reached.

Trying to stop it is flat earth, medieval nonsense.

The problem is that we threw 25,000 elderly and sick patients out of hospital and into care homes at the height of it and we shut down the NHS. That is what has caused the bulk of the deaths.

There are plenty of credible scientists out there who have argued against lockdown.

Two most prominent in the U.K.:


Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine.
 

Sunetra Gupta professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford.

You’ll find their analysis easily. Only just yesterday, a paper by Heneghan forced Sturgeon to change the definition of Covid hospital admissions in Scotland. 

My post was deriding those who sought herd immunity, so you don’t need to educate me on that.  
By seeking herd immunity,  they delayed lockdown which Meant our health system would be even more massively over stressed and barely able to cope with the burden of cases - which is why they shipped out oldies from hospitals.

oaksoft has constantly refused to accept he was wrong when I stated That we all know this.  That the only people who would argue otherwise would be politicians.   Venal, Tory ones...
 

He is wrong.... that’s why he now has to resort to puerile, ad hominem, inaccurate comments and hoping others will pile on.

 

sorry to see you do that, sue...  

 

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2 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

A very ironic post when you consider that I’ve never been banned while he’s now in the bin 😂

But WHY is TPAFKTS in the bin, when obvious BIN escapees are running about with pseudonyms?  What did he say/do wrong?  
 

I don’t often agree with him but he always seemed sane and calm...

Edited by antrin
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9 hours ago, antrin said:

My post was deriding those who sought herd immunity, so you don’t need to educate me on that.  
By seeking herd immunity,  they delayed lockdown which Meant our health system would be even more massively over stressed and barely able to cope with the burden of cases - which is why they shipped out oldies from hospitals.

oaksoft has constantly refused to accept he was wrong when I stated That we all know this.  That the only people who would argue otherwise would be politicians.   Venal, Tory ones...
 

He is wrong.... that’s why he now has to resort to puerile, ad hominem, inaccurate comments and hoping others will pile on.

 

sorry to see you do that, sue...  

 

Hey if you're going to deliberately mis-represent what I've been saying then that is on you.

Oh and that bit in bold would have had more weight if you hadn't referred to me as an arsehole elsewere.

You've well and truly lost the plot and the argument on this.

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44 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Hey if you're going to deliberately mis-represent what I've been saying then that is on you.

Oh and that bit in bold would have had more weight if you hadn't referred to me as an arsehole elsewere.

You've well and truly lost the plot and the argument on this.

I didn’t. YOU did.

And my post in reply to sue denim clarified your misrepresentation.

I almost admire your audacious attempt at Trumpian fake news - castigating me for the very thing you were doing!  Shameless.

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16 hours ago, oaksoft said:

No.

You need to see a trend first and that requires around a week of those sorts of figures.

239 deaths is not a very large total anyway in comparison with other expected deaths.

Nearly 500 die of cancer in the UK every single day.

Just shy of 100 a day die of diabetes.

Just shy of 500 die of heart and respiratory problems every day.

But 20 to 50 covid deaths in a day in the UK and the country collectively shits its pants and shuts down?

We are rapidly losing perspective over this,

 

Considering the subject was the spike in coronavirus deaths in Spain,  i'm surprised you didn't throw in the deaths in the first day in the Battle of the Somme or in the 13th century as Genghis khan ran amok in Europe  :blink:

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Carl Heneghan giving evidence at Parliament today to Science and Technology Committee. Seems credible to me @oaksoft @antrin

Witnesses: @carlheneghan, Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine & Director, @CebmOxford, University of Oxford;

Dr Thomas Waite, Director,Joint Biosecurity Centre;

Professor Sylvia Richardson, Director, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health
 

Prof Richardson: increase is being seen in infections, but must be interpreted with caution because of sampling characteristics (i.e. selection of those coming forward for testing). ONS and REACT studies may have less bias, but also have smaller sample sizes
 

Heneghan: increase in detected cases on Sept 2nd. Right around bank holiday (he means delay processing tests), and right after Eat Out to help Out (may have increased cases). Then, in Sept, 50% increase in consultations for acute respiratory infection. ... This is highly predictable for going back to school, back to work, etc. Many people are coming forward fr medical care with COVID alongside other respiratory pathogens.
 

Heneghan on Oldham: no matter what we've done, cases (have remained about the same). If you go into acute care numbers, we're not seeing its impact in hospitals and deaths. A slight increase, but nothing like what we saw in March and April.

... we have to question what Govt's strategy is.. are we accepting that the virus is endemic, and will circulate freely between young people in the summer

We also have to be mindful not to push the disease into the winter, when immunity etc is poorer...
 

Between now and xmas we will see a 4x increase in general practice attendance in a good year, 8x in an epidemic year. We will see a 50% increase in deaths until January. This is important context.
 

Heneghan: exponential rise is incorrect - we're seeing a linear increase in line with other respiratory pathogens for this time of year

Also - role of increasing testing in hotspot areas - leading to the view that 'it's going up', but actually it's just 'picking up what's there'
 

Q about Bolton: is it likely nearby areas have similar rates, just not being picked up?

Heneghan: infections and epidemics, 400 per 100,000 consulting constitutes an epidemic, and that's symptomatic people...
 

... When we talk about 200/250, you're still in the ballpark of a seasonal virus. And you also need to know how many have symptoms... we need the data so that we can say more than just 'it's going up', and then panic
 

@portmahomack saint

Q about tripling of France hospitalisations?

Heneghan: data in France and Spain starting to flatline, not exponential. Testing through prescription in France, and private incentivising hospital beds (could be benefical esp for elderly, i.e. we may want more having treatment)

Heneghan: shift in debate from protect NHS to cases. People in Bolton will want to know what the impact is on healthcare. Need a clinical definition of cases. If we're going to react and have restrictive measures, this has to be based on the impact of the disease (i.e. not cases)

Q about Oldham, what can we infer from steady rate there?

Heneghan: test and trace is having an impact, but problem is government keep intervening and confusing the policiy - what's the point in test and trace if it then leads to lockdown. We need to keep a eye on hospital data

Questioner - you are critical of PCR?

Heneghan: PCR is helpful, but needs a strategy, otherwise identify too many false positives

***A cycle threshold >35 generally are people who aren't infectious***

NHS currently use threshold of 45, identifying people who are not infectious

Heneghan: we can't test our way out of this pandemic, random testing of the population will pick up dead virus, we can isolate RNA fragments up to 90 days after infections.

If you randomly test in schools, you might as well shut them all down now.

... we must think about harms and social consequences.

Right now, when a single Yr13 student is possibly positive for coronavirus, whole year group sent home, because no one is thinking through how we;re using these tests appropriately.
 

Heneghan: "it is utter chaos" in schools right now because of the 50% increase in other respiratory pathogens circulating in children (and adults' responses to this)

Edited by Sue Denim
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