Coronavirus

[insaintee]

18 minutes ago, Slarti said:

Quotes below from the main pages of your first two links. (The third link wouldn't let me copy on my phone, for some reason.)

They both show that the number of deaths "attributed" to covid could, in all likelihood, be lower than reported.

For example, diabetes was mentioned on my brothers death certificate when he actually died of a massive heart attack. Was diabetes a contributing factor? Mibbes aye, mibbes naw, there's really no way to tell. And that's the same with covid when it is mentioned on a death certificate unless it is as the "actual" cause of death as the heart attack was in my brother's case.

I would be almost certain that your brother's diabetes was contributory factor to him developing heart disease and to his heart attack. The medical practitioner agrees with me. Happy to go along with expert opinion in this case.

Is covid actually a contributing factor in these deaths? For some, more than likely, for others, not so likely. 

If a Medical practitioner considers that it is a factor then probably yes. I accept there are gray areas in both direction. Sometimes it will be left off when it should not be and sometimes it will be put on when it should not be, but by and large I am happy to accept that the actual medical staff making the call is better placed to make that judgement than you or I.

---
3.9%

This is the percentage of people who have died after testing positive for the virus. (The confirmed deaths / the number of cases)

The real fatality rate will likely be much lower, as not everyone who catches the virus gets tested.

This simply means that 3,9% of those that test positive die and that because not every one that gets covid gets tested (asymptomatic cases) the true death rate (the chance of dying if infected is lower than reported. Really nothing to do with the numbers that have died.

---
Key Findings

As at the 22nd of November, there have been a total of 5,380 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate.

Indeed these are the Scottish figures I think I have used UK figures in my posts above not sure what you point is? 

 

[Slarti]

 

I would be almost certain that your brother's diabetes was contributory factor to him developing heart disease and to his heart attack. The medical practitioner agrees with me. Happy to go along with expert opinion in this case.

If a Medical practitioner considers that it is a factor then probably yes. I accept there are gray areas in both direction. Sometimes it will be left off when it should not be and sometimes it will be put on when it should not be, but by and large I am happy to accept that the actual medical staff making the call is better placed to make that judgement than you or I.

This simply means that 3,9% of those that test positive die and that because not every one that gets covid gets tested (asymptomatic cases) the true death rate (the chance of dying if infected is lower than reported. Really nothing to do with the numbers that have died.

Indeed these are the Scottish figures I think I have used UK figures in my posts above not sure what you point is? 

The person that called to give the results of the PM said that diabetes, along with another couple if medical conditions, was not necessarily a contributing factor but, because he had it, it was put on the death certificate because it was possible it was but there was no way of knowing for sure if it definitely, or even probably, was. It was the same for the other conditions. So yes, I agree that they are better placed than you or I to say, even though I don't think that's what you were getting at.

It also means that the 3.9% includes those who have contracted covid and died, but not necessarily that covid was, 100%, a contributing factor in their deaths.

My point was the bit I highlighted (i.e. mentioned on death certificate), not the figure.

Covid is mentioned as the cause of death on some death certificates (not just as a contributing factor) so, yes, it does cause deaths, that is undeniable, but it is highly likely that not all people who die and have covid mentioned on their death certificate would have survived if they hadn't contracted it.

My stance on this is that we don't know, not that the death rate is really much lower than official reports. I would think that there would be some added that shouldn't be and some missed that should be added. How that balances out is anyone's guess at the moment.

Funnily enough, the ones who are claiming that they 100% know things, one way or the other, appear to be those that I have on ignore for other reasons, so maybe I'm a good judge of whether someone is a nutter or not. [emoji38]

[insaintee]

1 hour ago, Slarti said:

 

 

The person that called to give the results of the PM said that diabetes, along with another couple if medical conditions, was not necessarily a contributing factor but, because he had it, it was put on the death certificate because it was possible it was but there was no way of knowing for sure if it definitely, or even probably, was. It was the same for the other conditions. So yes, I agree that they are better placed than you or I to say, even though I don't think that's what you were getting at.

It also means that the 3.9% includes those who have contracted covid and died, but not necessarily that covid was, 100%, a contributing factor in their deaths.

My point was the bit I highlighted (i.e. mentioned on death certificate), not the figure.

Covid is mentioned as the cause of death on some death certificates (not just as a contributing factor) so, yes, it does cause deaths, that is undeniable, but it is highly likely that not all people who die and have covid mentioned on their death certificate would have survived if they hadn't contracted it.

My stance on this is that we don't know, not that the death rate is really much lower than official reports. I would think that there would be some added that shouldn't be and some missed that should be added. How that balances out is anyone's guess at the moment.

Funnily enough, the ones who are claiming that they 100% know things, one way or the other, appear to be those that I have on ignore for other reasons, so maybe I'm a good judge of whether someone is a nutter or not.

 

Flat Earther found 

[shull]

 

[ALBIONSAINT]

Yawn 🥱 

[Slarti]

Flat Earther found 

Where? Hope you aren't referring to me. Apart from "stuff exists", I don't believe in any "scientific" claims (like a flat earth) from the bible.

[faraway saint]

[faraway saint]

Seen wee Nicky on TV this morning explaining she, and the Scottish government, initially were preparing for a flu like pandemic.

Imagine thinking that? 

[Bud the Baker]

On 11/25/2020 at 6:16 PM, faraway saint said:

Last 2 days have seen a depressing jump in deaths, while cases continue to plummet.

Yesterday, 607, today a staggering 696. 

 

Spare us the crocodile tiers (sic) it's the inevitable outcome of ignoring scientific advice in September.

Tiers 1&2 of the new half hearted system down south won't reduce spread of the virus, the Xmas holiday will make it worse but Tory MPs in their detached homes will be spared the worst.

Quote

Tier 2 of the latest restrictions to be implemented across large parts of England after national lockdown ends will “hold the line” but not bring cases down, the chief medical officer for England said.

Professor Chris Whitty also admitted that Tier 1 restrictions, the lightest measures which will be applied in only three areas –the Isle of Wight, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly – would lead to an increase in infections.

It's just another fuckup in the making down south from a neoliberal government, so far only the strict measures that infuriate gammonistas like yourself have been shown to work in reducing the spread of the virus, but they'll be coming out of lockdown in a worse state than when the original advice to enter was made back in September.

Quote

At the press conference, Sir Patrick Vallance  said: “The message is that the tiers worked in terms of slowing but didn’t work in terms of flattening and reversing it.

“The national lockdown looks as if it has flattened it and is sending it downwards and it is important we do bring it down because numbers remain high.”

When the fun stops, stops - unfortunately our leader is having too much fun acting out his Churchill fantasies.

[faraway saint]

^^^^^^^^ Burnt some bread again. 

[antrin]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

.It's just another fuckup in the making down south from a neoliberal government, so far only the strict measures that infuriate gammonistas like yourself have been shown to work in reducing the spread of the virus,

As you know I’m no fan of The Buffoon and his acolytes, but I’d gained the impression that cv19 stats weren’t that much better than “down south”, under wee Sturgeon’s strict nanny regime... nor in the NW and NE English areas (under lockdown for months) that are definitely badly hit.

Down South seems to be not so badly off.  And I’ll be at the movies again next week, not before time!

 

on an entirely different track...

I’ve been listening/watching every Friday afternoon, the indie-Sage live zoomed conference offering facts and figures and authoritative professional opinion, untainted by political influence,  hosted by the wonderfully strict Prof Alice Roberts.  
it appears that, in all regions...   cases and hospital admissions are happily falling  and so optimistically it can be deduced that deaths will follow suit.

opinion was that the Xmas cop out is simply a hastened death sentence for many grannies and grandpas.

They’re usually about 65-70 minutes. Data up front , then discussion, questions and answers.

Here is yesterday’s for anyBuddie interested.  All previous are on YouTube.

 

 

[antrin]

Sorry.  The vid above is a week ago.

THIS might be the one....

sigh...
 

[Bud the Baker]

45 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

^^^^^^^^ Burnt some bread again. 

No arguments again...

At pushing 80,000 premature deaths from the virus already I haven't found much to laugh at this week...

The government that brought us "turn the tide in 12 weeks" in March and "return to normality by Christmas" in June and whose complacency in September stoked the current resurgence of the virus are now pursuing more half-baked (sic) policies, unfortunately NS/Holyrood are joining the UK government in their Xmas folly.

27 minutes ago, antrin said:

As you know I’m no fan of The Buffoon and his acolytes, but I’d gained the impression that cv19 stats weren’t that much better than “down south”, under wee Sturgeon’s strict nanny regime... nor in the NW and NE English areas (under lockdown for months) that are definitely badly hit.

Down South seems to be not so badly off.  And I’ll be at the movies again next week, not before time!

 

Yeah I have consistently said NS/Holyrood have made many of the same mistakes as BJ/Westminster and as you say not done much better in reducing the spread of the virus although NS hasn't reached the same levels of buffoonery as BJ and indeed she seems to be quite chastened by the experience of being at the helm during these "interesting times".

PS - From what I'm reading "oop north" (and I don't mean Uxbridge) aren't too happy with London getting Tier 2 status...

Edited November 28, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[StanleySaint]

Yes, it is a sore point up here, cases are dropping at the same rate as the London ones are increasing so we're in 3 and they are in two, madness. I can only assume that because the miserable cockneys never talk to each other that the gov think they'll spread it less, or perhaps it has more to do with the powers that be can still get out for a nice bit of supper and a g n' t of an evening, either way shambolic decisions.

[antrin]

12 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

 

PS - From what I'm reading "oop north" (and I don't mean Uxbridge) aren't too happy with London getting Tier 2 status...

Naw...

Uxbridge is west and slightly south of me.  I guessed ye didnae mean there.  

[faraway saint]

3 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

No arguments again...

At pushing 80,000 premature deaths from the virus already I haven't found much to laugh at this week...

The government that brought us "turn the tide in 12 weeks" in March and "return to normality by Christmas" in June and whose complacency in September stoked the current resurgence of the virus are now pursuing more half-baked (sic) policies, unfortunately NS/Holyrood are joining the UK government in their Xmas folly.

Yeah I have consistently said NS/Holyrood have made many of the same mistakes as BJ/Westminster and done little better in reducing the spread of the virus although NS hasn't reached the same levels of buffoonery as BJ and indeed she seems to be quite chastened by the experience of being at the helm during these "interesting times".

PS - From what I'm reading "oop north" (and I don't mean Uxbridge) aren't too happy with London getting Tier 2 status...

Spare us your fake sympathy, and 80,000 deaths, again, using your skewed version of categorizing deaths.

Worldometer (57,551) has been used by the majority since the start of this mess, and I could even go for the "other" set of stats that are far fewer than them, but I'll remain consistent with no political bias, unlike you.

Hindsight is a great skill, I'm sure you can dig up many "quotes" to suit your desire to blame the government for everything while the real blame is all around you every time you leave your cave. 

Even wee Nicky said quite clearly yesterday she was preparing or a flu like pandemic, at the start of this.

Plenty of countries have this under control, guided by governments but successful because the general public have done the basics which you, with your greater knowledge seem to deride at every opportunity

Aye, you, whenever pushed, bring NS/Holyrood into your view but prefer the "Johnson is to blame" approach.  

I'm tired......................

 

[antrin]

3 minutes ago, StanleySaint said:

Yes, it is a sore point up here, cases are dropping at the same rate as the London ones are increasing so we're in 3 and they are in two, madness. I can only assume that because the miserable cockneys never talk to each other that the gov think they'll spread it less, or perhaps it has more to do with the powers that be can still get out for a nice bit of supper and a g n' t of an evening, either way shambolic decisions.

Only some London boroughs are poor.  Havering, Tower Hamlets and Redbridge have poor figures, other parts aren’t bad - my borough is easily better than Renfrewshire... and the aforementioned trio.

 

without the poor trio, we might argue for being in tier 1.  The groupings are configured as broad sweeps because people WILL migrate to a more lax regime... for a pint.

Solidarity, bruvva.  Cheers!

[Bud the Baker]

2 minutes ago, antrin said:

Naw...

Uxbridge is west and slightly south of me.  I guessed ye didnae mean there.  

I was using what I imagined to be The Private Eye definition of Up North so I'm quite happy with Uxbridge (even if it is the Wild West) it's not my problem if you come from London's Artic Circle...

[Bud the Baker]

44 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

.

 

If only...

***************************

80,000 - not my view it's the ONS view based on evidence from doctors and death certificates - it really isn't hard to understand.

Except none of it is really hindsight. it was all pretty obvious as it was happening - too late into lockdown, too soon out, restrictions eased too much, blaming us for the resurgence and then repeating it all 6 months later...

I was criticizing BJ/Westminster because the UK figures were what you chose to post. 

The buck used to stop at the top which would be BJ, now it's placed firmly on those at the bottom of the social ladder often (not accusing you) with a touch of racism thrown in. which is absolutely disgusting.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[antrin]

2 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

I was using what I imagined to be The Private Eye definition of Up North so I'm quite happy with Uxbridge (even if it is the Wild West) it's not my problem if you come from London's Artic Circle...

That would be Islington...

[Bud the Baker]

1 minute ago, antrin said:

That would be Islington...

I thought Islington  was more Inner London or am I missing the real joke?

[antrin]

6 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

I thought Islington  was more Inner London or am I missing the real joke?

You are, yes.

check out what’s on offer at the Pound Shop.  And it’s a £100 pound shop.

Quin and partner, Jez are upper-middle class guys, “keeping it real”!

Their “real” is kinda much less poor than most people.

Grim’ follows the adventures and mishaps in the lives of two uber-trendy, urbane sophisticates amid the coffee shops and patisserie outlets of North London.

 

 

eta Corbyn lives in Islington.  We lived there, but had to head out east decades ago, when we wanted to stop renting, in order to get more than a garage. Or rabbit hutch.

Edited November 28, 2020 by antrin

[Bud the Baker]

12 minutes ago, antrin said:

You are, yes.

check out what’s on offer at the Pound Shop.  And it’s a £100 pound shop.

Quin and partner, Jez are upper-middle class guys, “keeping it real”!

Their “real” is kinda much less poor than most people.

Grim’ follows the adventures and mishaps in the lives of two uber-trendy, urbane sophisticates amid the coffee shops and patisserie outlets of North London.

 

 

eta Corbyn lives in Islington.  We lived there, but had to head out east decades ago, when we wanted to stop renting, in order to get more than a garage. Or rabbit hutch.

Fairy Nuff - I always thought "Up North" was a euphemism for living in one of the less fashionable London boroughs ,it's not one of my favourite Eye cartoons and I haven't read a copy since my son left home!

Edited November 28, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[faraway saint]

So, Christmas IS going to be different this year for those who understand that the virus doesn't believe in Santa.

Our existing bubble, childminding duties, will see us with a reduced number on Christmas Day while my son and his partner and children will be down in Perth. 

It's been a difficult decision, the risk is very, very, very low and any consequences, even if we caught the virus, are very very low but, despite disagreeing with many of the "rules" throughout this, we've complied. 

As a family we've been virus free, despite the majority of us "working" through the majority of the last 8 months and not having the luxury of hiding in a cave.

Maybe following the "rules" does help after all. 

 

[Ayrshire Saints]

Out a walk on this glorious day on the Ayrshire coast, gets to the entrance to the first golf club to see a bus load unloading the days "cargo" along with their clubs from a bus based in Penicuick. That's pushing the ok to travel for exercise (clearly 2 cases of Bud was required in their "regime") well beyond the limits, they are on a jolly !