Coronavirus

[Bud the Baker]

44 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You can take whatever stance you like but you are still wrong.

Oh and the 80,000 figure you mentioned is excess deaths. The problem with relying on that number is that it  includes people who have died because they've been denied treatment due to restrictions.

No the 80.000 figure is death certificates where Covid has been mentioned, these  figures are from last week - the ONS issues figures weekly.

Quote

The official death toll now stands at 60,113, a figure which counts known deaths among those who have died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus.

This toll has been consistently lower than that put out by the UK’s three statistical agencies. They record the Covid death toll as having passed 76,000. This total comprises all fatalities that mention the disease as a factor on the death certificate.

The governments preferred figure now stands at 64,170 which means the correct figure would be over 80,000.

Quote

Prof Gabriel Scally, president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine, said the government’s figures, while not giving the complete picture of deaths, acted as a “sentinel system” for the impact of the disease.

“The purpose of it is to act as a sort of monitoring tool so you can see trends against exactly the same data which is very easily computed data,” he said. “It gives you a number where you can watch it speeding up, slowing down, so it’s very good for monitoring trends.

“If you want to know the actual number of deaths, well then you have to go to death certification, which is really the best data.”

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[stlucifer]

4 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

How will they end the pseudo epidemic 

The vaccine won’t stop the virus or transmission. It’s only stops symptoms. The virus is driven by asymptomatic spread. 
 

Cases, admissions and deaths will fall as we head into the summer next year but they will rise again next winter.

The same pseudo epidemic will occur. The only it can end is to stop testing or to use the lateral flow test.

This winter is as I predicted in the summer 

That may be the case for the Pfizer vaccine but there is hope that the AstraZeneca vaccine does limit the spread. 

"Some of the people in the UK part of the trial actually were testing themselves regularly for infection with the virus, and that different infection rates in the placebo and vaccine groups suggested that the drug was also blocking transmission of the disease".

Not definitive but nothing to do with this vaccine search is.

[Bud the Baker]

Sad news for @antrin about WonderWoman.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[oaksoft]

11 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

Not quite 3 weeks since BJ gave us his "be jolly, but not to jolly" message and predictably we see politicians north & south of the border backtracking on the message.

BJ is not in charge of our covid response.

[antrin]

10 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

BJ is not in charge of his own arse.

fify

[faraway saint]

12 minutes ago, antrin said:

fify

Hilarious, if the forum was for 9 year olds. 

[Bud the Baker]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

BJ is not in charge of our covid response.

Have we left the UK?

I said politicians both north and south of the border are backtracking, I mentioned BJs remarks because as usual they were the most crass and likeliest to be followed by gammonistas & deniers, not for the first time increasing the spread of the disease. 

If only Christmas could be cancelled like I suggested at the start of October when you were poo-pooing the idea and I said it was likely to be likely to be up for discussion in the week before .Christmas. One of us don't need a weatherman to know which way the winds blows...

WAIfRNEC

[antrin]

40 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

Sad news for @antrin about WonderWoman.

Aye..

Luckily I'd yet to book a restaurant for that. 

I'd also a theatre booking next week for A Christmas Carol. 

Not a big deal for me, but business-busting for all those theatres, restaurants and bars.  Appalling mismanagement by the government - all this stuttering, stopping and starting is so destructive.  How can any business plan? Punters will be out of the routine of using their businesses.

It's a shite state of affairs.

 

We're not long in from a great day - walking with friends in Regents Park and Primrose Hill.   This was intended to be a quiet night in...

.. but apparently we're heading back out to the local pub, for some beer and a substantial meal.

Edited December 14, 2020 by antrin

[Bud the Baker]

IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES

[faraway saint]

1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

No the 80.000 figure is death certificates where Covid has been mentioned, these  figures are from last week - the ONS issues figures weekly.

The governments preferred figure now stands at 64,170 which means the correct figure would be over 80,000.

 

A key reason I wouldn't take these numbers as anything close to the truth on Covid killing people.

Over egging the deaths massively, as does the Worldometer method TBH.

Covid is not the reason people died on all of these recorded deaths, "mentioned" is misleading and adds to the scaremongering.

They are not lying, neither are the Government, just using a different, if flawed, method of recording deaths.

 

[shull]

New variant 

[faraway saint]

29 minutes ago, antrin said:

Not a big deal for me, but business-busting for all those theatres, restaurants and bars.  Appalling mismanagement by the government - all this stuttering, stopping and starting is so destructive.  How can any business plan? Punters will be out of the routine of using their businesses.

It's a shite state of affairs.

I agree 100% but, again, blaming the government when it's people who are spreading shows a real narrow minded view and a lack of responsibility, which is reflected by many of the general public. 

It's a no win situation, they, the government, don't do anything you get people screaming they are killing people, they take action, they are certainly damaging business's.

 

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, stlucifer said:

That may be the case for the Pfizer vaccine but there is hope that the AstraZeneca vaccine does limit the spread. 

"Some of the people in the UK part of the trial actually were testing themselves regularly for infection with the virus, and that different infection rates in the placebo and vaccine groups suggested that the drug was also blocking transmission of the disease".

Not definitive but nothing to do with this vaccine search is.

On the basis that the current prevalence of the virus is virtually zero and yet so many people are testing positive, this won’t stop another pseudo epidemic next winter.

Either testing is stopped or there is a switch to lateral flow tests or we face another pseudo epidemic next winter, like the one I predicted would happen this winter.

 

[Sue Denim]

23 minutes ago, shull said:

New variant 

This precisely the theory of Edgar Hope Simpson

Viruses are carried by people latently, they become infectious when the seasonal element kicks in and they produce mutations. It’s how respiratory viruses like this survive and thrive.

Its how respiratory viruses like this bypass vaccines. 

Unless governments stop testing, this pseudo epidemic will go on for ever 

[Sue Denim]

To give some context to the new “variant”, the paper below identified >12,000 variants/mutations in the first ~50k genomes and they are now at >250k genomes. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19818-2

[Bud the Baker]

55 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

A key reason I wouldn't take these numbers as anything close to the truth on Covid killing people.

Over egging the deaths massively, as does the Worldometer method TBH.

Covid is not the reason people died on all of these recorded deaths, "mentioned" is misleading and adds to the scaremongering.

They are not lying, neither are the Government, just using a different, if flawed, method of recording deaths.

 

Prof Gabriel Scally, president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine, said the government’s figures, while not giving the complete picture of deaths, acted as a “sentinel system” for the impact of the disease.

“The purpose of it is to act as a sort of monitoring tool so you can see trends against exactly the same data which is very easily computed data,” he said. “It gives you a number where you can watch it speeding up, slowing down, so it’s very good for monitoring trends.

“If you want to know the actual number of deaths, well then you have to go to death certification, which is really the best data.”

[faraway saint]

1 minute ago, Bud the Baker said:

Prof Gabriel Scally, president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine, said the government’s figures, while not giving the complete picture of deaths, acted as a “sentinel system” for the impact of the disease.

“The purpose of it is to act as a sort of monitoring tool so you can see trends against exactly the same data which is very easily computed data,” he said. “It gives you a number where you can watch it speeding up, slowing down, so it’s very good for monitoring trends.

“If you want to know the actual number of deaths, well then you have to go to death certification, which is really the best data.”

Yes, I also see the numbers as seeing the trends, which I said way back, the EXACT numbers, barring the personal grief for each family, are not critical.

As for the death certificate, again, if covid is mentioned is IS NOT necessarily the cause of death, therefore the numbers they produce are flawed.

[Bud the Baker]

3 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Yes, I also see the numbers as seeing the trends, which I said way back, the EXACT numbers, barring the personal grief for each family, are not critical.

As for the death certificate, again, if covid is mentioned is IS NOT necessarily the cause of death, therefore the numbers they produce are flawed.

Take it up wi Gabe.

[Hendo]

20 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

We're already at 80,000 premature deaths if you believe GPs & the ONS neither of whom have any reason to lie, but that's all rather academic compared to our both our national and devolved governments loosening restrictions & taking a gamble with fuck knows how many more - see the connection.

Its good that GP's have taken advantage of all their spare time by turning their hand to statistical analysis.

[Bud the Baker]

8 minutes ago, Hendo said:

Its good that GP's have taken advantage of all their spare time by turning their hand to statistical analysis.

The GPs fill in the Death Certificates the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tallies the data - as far as I can tell neither the GPs nor the ONS have any reason to falsify the data whereas the politicians certainly have - call it lies or manipulating the data whatever you will I believe like Prof Gabriel Scally, president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine the ONS tally of Death Certificate's really is the best data.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[hamlet]

24 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

I agree 100% but, again, blaming the government when it's people who are spreading shows a real narrow minded view and a lack of responsibility, which is reflected by many of the general public. 

It's a no win situation, they, the government, don't do anything you get people screaming they are killing people, they take action, they are certainly damaging business's.

 

 

 Big mistake by the Government agreeing to allow 2,000 supporters to attend live football over the week-end.

London going into tier 3. They already new last week that there was an increase in cases and still allowed it to go

ahead. Don't think they took the health advice on this one.

Watched Crystal Palace where they were packed behind the goal like sardines and obviously face covering was not

mandatory.

More comedy from Hancock to-night. Dear dear, said before don't believe  a word he says.

[Hendo]

1 hour ago, shull said:

New variant 

This virus has more variants than you have aliases.

[faraway saint]

1 minute ago, Bud the Baker said:

The GPs fill in the Death Certificates the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tally the data - as far as I can tell neither the GPs nor the ONS have any reason to falsify the data whereas the politicians certainly have.

Who has said anyone, except you, is falsifying anything?

It's DIFFERENT methods of reporting.

The ONS have their vague criteria which easily gives a false number of who has DIED from Covid.

 

[Ayrshire Saints]

And I know for a fact that this man is not the only person to have gone through this.
People like Bazil need to explain why the family of this man should just (and I'm quoting Bazil directly) "suck it up" as regards ongoing restrictions. Then he needs to explain why it is better that a handful of 80 year olds with underlying health conditions are saved in preference to people like this man.
Tricky thing this moral high ground grabbing.

Don't know if you have followed this case since it hit the headlines in the summer via a Panorama documentary. The NHS boards stance is incredible. Throughout and still they claim they followed NICE guidelines and he was treated within normal pre pandemic timescales. They also allege that the spread was so rapid that any delay made no difference to the terminal diagnosis.

That, if true surely leaves them wide open to a misdiagnosis accusation as it's the original misdiagnosis that is most likely to have lead to the metastatic tumours as opposed to any delay in instigating treatment. Truly tragic case.

[Hendo]

2 minutes ago, hamlet said:

 

 

 Big mistake by the Government agreeing to allow 2,000 supporters to attend live football over the week-end.

London going into tier 3. They already new last week that there was an increase in cases and still allowed it to go

ahead. Don't think they took the health advice on this one.

Watched Crystal Palace where they were packed behind the goal like sardines and obviously face covering was not

mandatory.

More comedy from Hancock to-night. Dear dear, said before don't believe  a word he says.

Given fans were only allowed in at the weekend, that would not have an effect on current numbers.